Data Comparisons

SST Images for Oct., Nov., Dec. 2007-2008

54 Comments

Vincent Guerrini Jr posted images of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from NOAA’s SST Anomaly resource. He said: “if this ain’t a picture of a massively cooling world I don’t know what it is..”

The SST’s showed lots of blue and yellow, indicating slight positive and negative anomalies. I have to admit I always have trouble integrating color images to estimate whether the net effect is a positive or negative anomaly. But, it is fun to look at the images, so I created an image by collecting together images from mid Oct., Nov. and Dec. 2007 and Oct. and Nov. 2008.

Here’s the image:

Figure 1: Comparison of SST\'s
Figure 1: Comparison of SST's

Of course, I can’t show these without mentioning ENSO. the NOAA El Nino Status pages dated Nov. 6, 2008. starts like this:

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into early 2009.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during October 2008, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-average across much of the Pacific Ocean, except for small areas of below-average SSTs in the east-central Pacific and off the coast of South America (Fig. 1). C…

And ends:

A majority of the SST forecasts indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions (-0.5°C to 0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region) into the first half of 2009 (Fig. 5). Several dynamical models suggest the development of a La Niña during Northern Hemisphere Winter 2008-09. This outcome becomes more likely if the current MJO were to stall in a location that favors enhanced low-level easterlies and increased upwelling in the east-central and eastern Pacific. However, it is rare for La Niña to develop late in the year. Therefore, based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into early 2009.

54 thoughts on “SST Images for Oct., Nov., Dec. 2007-2008”

  1. Unless it’s really obvious, I can’t do eyeball integration either. What is obvious from the SSTs is that we were in a strong La Nina pattern at this time last year, and we are in ENSO neutral conditions currently. So we shouldn’t expect the earth to be cooler. What is important to me is that we are still below the flat trendline for RSS and UAH, and we are only about .02 above for HadCrut3. This is a good indicator that the missing .2C of temp rise for the decade is not missing because of ENSO.

  2. Its particularly hard to integrate these maps because of the projection. These projections grossly exaggerate the area within 20 degrees of the polls, which also happen to be the areas that seem to have the most variance.

  3. Regardless of your choice of data set, the Optimally Interpolated SST (OI.v2 SST) or the Extended Reconstruction SST (ERSST.v2), SSTs are indeed dropping and have been for a few years. There are some bumps in the data, but they are declining. Will the trends continue? Your guess is as good as mine.

    Global SST Anomalies
    http://i37.tinypic.com/2uiueqo.jpg

    Northern Hemisphere SST Anomalies
    http://i33.tinypic.com/11tlbwz.jpg

    Southern Hemisphere SST Anomalies
    http://i35.tinypic.com/23i9bna.jpg

    The Southern Hemisphere is following the lead of the Southern Ocean:
    http://i34.tinypic.com/2rzc94x.jpg

    These comparative graphs between data sets are part of a post I did a few days ago.
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/11/optimally-interpolated-sst-oiv2-sst.html

  4. Ed Berry thinks that the La Nina will return although not a strong as the one that just ended. In his blog he wrote:

    “Bottom line, I think we may be waiting for the tropical Pacific Ocean “SSTs to really kick in” responding to the global circulation already having La-Nina characteristics. In fact, speculating, are we starting an evolution of another SST cold event which may mature as late as 2009-10 that will even make the Nino 3.4 people happy? See links below.
    ”
    [url]http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/[/url]

  5. And then came news that MJO is a response to surface conditions.
    The 10 M and 850 hpa winds in the equatorial Pacific indicate healthy trade winds which explains why ENSO is on the cool side of neutral. The current condition that is blocking development of La Nina is an oceanic kelvin wave that began last month when temp anoms in the Nino 3.4 region momentarily reached the La Nina threshold of -.5.

  8. The Pacific is not the only ocean. Look what is happening in the Atlantic, the Arctic and the Southern Ocean.

    ENSO 3.4 is not the only index. The traditional SOI based on air pressure in Darwin and Tahiti directly monitors the pressure relations that drive the Easterlies. For solar cycle 23 the strong tendency has been for pressures to intensify over Tahiti between May and November and to hold up till April. That is what we are seeing this year. This represents low temperatures in the upper atmosphere in the South Pacific, good strong cirrus cloud density and a cooling southern ocean. The same holds in the high pressure zones in the Indian Ocean and South Atlantic. This will maintain cool conditions along the equator.

    SOI MAY -4.3 June 5 July 2.2 August 9.1 September 14.1 October 13.4

    For the tropics to pick up more warmth in ENSO events and drive global temperatures upward a loss of cloud cover is what is required. ENSO is not energy budget neutral.

    For a longer explanation of the importance of the dynamics in the southern tropics see: http://climatechange1.wordpress.com

  9. Earl Happ,
    I was just at the NOAA’s SOI page and it looked like there were as many negatives as positives during the solar cycle 23 years.
    While there many contributing factors to ENSO, it would probably be best if every one kept in mind the main contributor; the difference in temperatures between east and west in the equatorial pacific. When it is warmer in the west (Indonesia) then air rises, pulling air from the east where it falls between 80e and 140e (or so), that be the trade winds which push ocean water to the west along the equator.

  10. MikeC
    Is this the chicken and the egg problem? I would say that when upper atmosphere temperatures are driven higher by ultraviolet radiation over Tahiti it weakens the high pressure cell there. The strength of that cell and the relative low pressure in the cell over Darwin is the thing that determines the strength of the Easterlies. The Easterlies determine the rate of pile up of warm waters in the West. That is result not cause.

    My statement re persistent La Nina tendency from May through to April relates to the data for the traditional SOI that you can see at the BOM. It is based on a calculation of mean monthly data. I am not counting peaks.

    Warming of the tropics is driven by what happens between 10°S and 30°S as you will, I hope, agree when you have a look at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com

  11. Earl Happ,
    There is no high pressure cell over Tahiti. Tahiti is at 17s, the high pressure belt is to the south of that between 30s and 40s and it is constantly moving east and constantly replaced by a new cell from the west (geographically speaking). While the winds in this belt will have an impact on easterlies, the driving force in the equatorial zone (where there is no corolis effect) will still be the difference between temps in the east and west. This can be observed by viewing the 10m wind annimations at the BOM website. Those winds are what influence the water in the equatorial pacific which cause changes in cold water upwelling (El Nino / La Nina).
    If UV were to have an impact then it would be over the entire belt, not just one cell, and the easterlies would show simillar tendencies across the entire globe.
    Finally, it does not matter if you get your SOI from NOAA or BOM, it’s the same thing.

  12. Mike
    Map two in the post shows where the air descends in terms of average 500hPa vertical velocity. The air above, to the east and south of Tahiti is much colder than elsewhere and it is from an ozone rich tropopause. The temperature profiles below the tropopause in this particular zone reveal an extreme reaction to the presence of ozone.

    Ozone concentration does vary so the impact is greatest over the location where the coldest driest air tends to descend over the coldest waters which are located in the rain shadow of the continents to the east. Ozone is soluble in water and will not persist in wet air. See map 1.

    There are at least three SOI sets for different latitudes but only one that pertains to the latitude 10-30°S. Its the oldest one based on Tahiti and Darwin.

    My names Erl, and I can spell.

  14. Bob B–
    I saw CA. Yes, it looks like NOAA is doing something! When this is all over, we’ll see how much things change, and how far back the changes go.

  15. Erl, somehow you have drifted into ozone. I’m not sure how ozone or conditions at lattitudes 10-30s are relevant to conditions along the equator. You are aware that ENSO is an equatorial condition, yes?

  16. Mike,
    Not much chance you will appreciate the role of ozone and its links to temperature along the equator unless you have a look at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/

    Briefly, ozone accompanies descending air in high pressure zones and its reaction to UVB and OLR heats the upper regions of these cells tending to weaken the forces producing the downdraft and lower surface pressure. At the same time, as the air above 500hPa warms the cirrus disappears allowing more light through to the surface warming the sea. That warm water reaction south of 10°S precedes and is part of the process whereby the equatorial waters warm. The contributing elements are a slackening of the easterlies consequent on change in pressure relations, the movement of the warm waters from west to east and the cessation of cold upwelling in the East.

    It matters not one jot that the cells move because new ones form and over time the enduring pressure relationship between East and West determines the strength of the easterlies.

    Without the change in cloud cover that accounts for the additional energy at the surface, ENSO would be a simple re-distributive phenomenon. Plainly, it is not. More solar energy received at the tropics ultimately means warming at higher latitudes. This plainly is what happened in 1976-8.

  17. Erl,
    Where you and I will disagree is about the role of the equatorial pacific ocean waters in the ENSO cycle, not because I do not want to consider your ozone discussion, but based on 2 years of almost daily observation of both the ocean and atmosphere and how they interract.
    If in fact you are able to demonstrate the relationship you discuss then changes in intensity of the high pressure systems may increase or decrease the strength of particular ENSO events, but by a small percentage. For instance, dominance of high pressure off the South American coast will create equatorward coastal winds which will in turn intensify the Peru Current and associated upwellings and cool the Nino 1 + 2 region. Another example would be high pressure south of Tahiti, the associated surface winds will bring more cool surface water t’wards the Nino 3.4 area. But the bottom line is that the behavior of atmosphere above the Nino regions is predominantly a product of the ocean below. Heat rises and all.

  20. Mike,
    The high pressure cells are located where they are because the ocean is cooler than the land. They vary in intensity with 200hPa temperature that is independently determined by the sun. As 200hPa temperature varies so does cloud cover. As cloud cover varies so does surface temperature.

    How, other than via a variation in cloud cover can surface temperature change?

    The winds reflect the forces acting on the upper atmosphere. So does the cloud and the surface temperature.

    Without a change in cloud cover the tropics can not warm.

  23. Speaking about the Nino regions, when the thermocline is blocked by a layer of warm water which stops the upwelling.

  24. Erl Happ (Comment#6882) November 22nd, 200

    The winds reflect the forces acting on the upper atmosphere. So does the cloud and the surface temperature.

    Without a change in cloud cover the tropics can not warm.

    This seems wrong. Cloud cover over the tropics would lower the temps in the lower troposphere by blocking the suns radiation. Most cloud cover is not at the tropics but slightly north and south as the warm moist air rises cools and the high humidity of the air condenses. Perhaps I misunderstand this thread but the tropics will always be more humid but less cloudy than than subtropics.

  27. Mike, Bob, Martin,
    Sorry, about to catch a flight. Will have to pick this up another day. Briefly, what you seem to be saying is that the temperature of the tropical waters is due to change in the distribution of the warm pool and there is no change in the amount of energy in the tropical budget. Sorry, I can’t agree but the explanation will have to wait for another day.

    Contemplate if you will the phenomenon whereby the advance and retreat of temperature in the tropics is usually much greater than for the globe as a whole. When the tropics moves one way or another so does the globe as a whole. Contemplate the fact that the tropics radiates less energy than it receives while the reverse is the case polewards of 40° of latitude.

    Bottom line is ENSO is not heat budget neutral. Why did temperatures between the equator and 10°N jump by half a degree in 1978 and have maintained that temperature until very recently.

  28. Erl, your question is irrelevant. You have been shown diagrams and video that are based on actual observation… how does that old saying go?… a great theory is slain by a simple observation…?

  29. Erl: Here’s an animation of the equatorial Pacific subsurface temperatures for the past year (120E-75W, averaged over 5N-5S) from the surface to a depth of 400 m:
    http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.ENSO/.Thermocline/Animation.html
    And here’s an animation of the equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature anomalies for the past year (120E-75W, averaged over 5N-5S) from the surface to a depth of 350 m:
    http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.ENSO/.Thermocline/Weekly_Anom_Loop.html

    Hope it helps.

  31. Vincent, the only thing unusual about that annimation was the intensity of the anomalies in the Nino regions

  32. Mike C: Check the scale on the surface temperature anomaly animation. White is +/- 2.5 deg C. It’s a heavy duty El Nino when you get up above that range.

  33. One wonders whether there is some sort of compensatory extreme temp flip flop between the NH and SH poles occasionaly? It will all go away of course in the next couple of days (we hope!)

  34. That’s nothing, Bob…look at the poles… up north, you can almost see the Eskimos shedding their hydes and tanning at the beach. And down south you can almost see the frozen Penguins floating along the coast between the ice bergs.

  35. methinks the difference looks interesting.

    I have the following _a priori_ assumptions:
    *In the actual time window both polar regions are ica/snow covered
    (I would think this reduces/prevents leakage of “transported heat”).
    *The tropospherre is well mixed
    *(Hence)the concentration of CO2 is fairly similar in the polar regions

    I would think the difference between the polar regions gives important information on the effects of water vapor relative to CO2.
    A caveat WRT ozone which also could contribute to the difference, -IF the current Arcic ozone level is much HIGHER than the Antarctic.

    Cassanders
    In Cod we trust

  36. Remember NOAA, as do GISS, use a map projection that distorts as one moves N & S from the equator, so the temp reports from relatively few stations in the Arctic and Antarctic are given greater prominence than they might actually deserve.

  38. Bob,
    Thanks for the links especially http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a…..index.html
    It’s always easier to visualise what is happening with the raw than anomaly data. I read this animation as a relatively stable mass of warm water in the west being affected by a flow of water from the east that is either warmer or cooler depending upon the light falling on the water in the East (where the cloud cover is least and most variable). Judging by the behaviour of the isotherms, cold waters remain at depth while the body of warm water in the west floats above by virtue of a difference in density. However, the pushing of the cold waters moving westward keeps the warm pool in the west.

    One factor that must be appreciated in reading sea surface temperature anomaly data is encompassed in the note below:

    ‘Positive SSTAs are usually correlated with increased regions of convection (cloudiness and rainfall) while negative SSTAs are usually correlated to reduced convection.’ http://www.eldersweather.com.au/climimage.jsp?i=sstag

    At mid and high latitudes at the current time, warm sea surface temperatures are associated with portions of the ocean where rivers of warm moist air travel polewards.Coming from the tropics the air is warm. The near surface cloud content is high. The sea surface is warmed by the transfer of warmth from warm air, itself being warmed by release of the latent heat of condensation. High cloud cover tends to absorb outgoing radiation keeping the warmth close to the surface.

    I am not denying that a slackening of the easterlies will allow the warm pool to spread out in an easterly direction with a consequent flattening of the 20° isotherm. Its a component of the process by which warm waters occupy more of the surface of the Pacific when the Easterlies slacken.

    What I am pointing out is that the bulk of the water of the tropics is in fact not warmed by contact with warm air or warm pool dynamics but is warmed via direct absorbtion of solar energy as light. I wish to point out that the area contributing spreads into the subtropics, most especially south of the equator where the annual and inter-annual flux in cirrus cover is greatest. Furthermore, I point out that upper troposphere cirrus cloud dynamics that can change Earth albedo are intimately connected with temperature in the upper troposphere, in turn affected by short wave radiation from the sun.

    It suits warmers to maintain that ENSO (PDO, NAO, SOA etc) is Earth budget energy neutral. Nothing could be further from the truth. The big gap in climate science is the explanation as to how ENSO, and its less impressive counterparts in other oceans, can add or subtract energy to the oceanic heat budget. I have seen people maintain that they can extract ENSO effects from the temperature record. This statement implicity acqnowledges that there is an energy budget effect. As for removing it by some statisitical sleight of hand, no, not possible I say.

  39. Erl, nice discussion. The warm pool is created in two ways. First, the trades blow that water to the west. Being that this area of water is warmer, there is increased evaporation. As this water evaporates, what is left is saltier, denser water that sinks.

    The way that SST’s and global temps can change by ocean circulation is by changing the amount of cold water upwelling to the surface and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

  40. Mike C,

    As I understand it the satellite measurements can’t see the poles so presumably surface measurements are somehow factored in there.

  41. Mike C,

    My previous comment was made without due diligence. It is true the satellites can’t see the poles, but that is irrelevant to NOAA and GISS who use surface temps.

  42. John Christi said he also extrapolates the poles… so when pairing up datasets you compare GISS and UAH for those who participate in the guessing game… then you compare HADCRUT3 and RSS for the datasets that do not guess the poles (assuming there have been no recent changes)

  44. Erl: As you know, ENSO is very much misunderstood. GCMs do a poor job of modeling ENSO events and of modeling their impacts on global climate. They miss the differences in global responses to El Ninos and La Ninas (they are not the same). By not inputting them as they occurred, the modelers miss the step changes in various temperature data sets after the 97/98 El Nino, etc. I’ve been posting about those in my SST threads for a number of months now. I’ve even shown how the HADSST version of NINO 3.4 data can be used to recreate the global temperature anomaly curve. (The HADSST NINO3.4 data was used by Trenberth to create his long-term NINO3.4 anomaly data.)

    I’m still trying to figure out what GCMs model correctly.

  45. Erl: I just ran across this link on a Roger Pielke, Sr repost.
    maps

    Oops, not all of the address gets duplicated but it will take you to the right website. The hit the pull down link for “Field” and click on Temp Averaged in upper 300m.
    Thought you’d appreciate it.

  47. Bob, from a quick look that’s a great resource. Thank you. Look forward to monitoring it. Do you know of a source for maps of the temperature of the atmosphere below the tropopause, say between 500hPa and the tropopause?

    200hPa is a level that meterology seems to find interesting. Do you know the background of why this is so? Why is it seen as a useful diagnostic tool?

    Mike, there is an excellent map of surface salinity levels. Looks like its a simple function of rainfall versus evaporation.

    Seems that the warmest waters lie away from the equator. The thermoline studies that concentrate on waters near the equator will miss the change in the bulk of warm waters over time.

  49. Vincent,

    As an example of the exaggeration induced by the map projection look at Greenland. NOAA show it as about 2/3rds the size of South America, whereas in reality the latter is about EIGHT times bigger than Greenland.

    Similarly Antarctica seems to wrap around the whole of the bottom of the World whereas in reality it doesn’t.

    The temp readings from the Arctic and Antarctic are relatively sparse but their effects are exaggerated in a similar way by the projection

  50. Just to add, the people at NOAA are well aware of the exaggeration and understand the viewing anomalies. But how well are these understood by the MSM and ordinary public?

  51. Steve McIntyre has plotted some of these graphs on a Molleweide projection which is “equal area” on his climate audit site if you want to take a look

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