Last month the UAH Temperature anomaly took us all by surprise jumping to +0.506C. This month Roy reports it’s settled back down to 0.176C. After applying the standard typo correction for obvious blunder, the winner is JCH who bet the temperature would be 0.170 C. Place and show went to Ben and EdForbes. Have fun spending your quatloos!
Details of other bets are show below:
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | +0.176 (C) | |||
| 1 | JCH | 0.17 | 2 | 34.044 | 32.044 |
| 2 | Ben | 0.196 | 5 | 68.087 | 63.087 |
| 3 | EdForbes | 0.2 | 5 | 54.47 | 49.47 |
| 4 | RobertLeyland | 0.201 | 4 | 34.861 | 30.861 |
| 5 | DocMartyn | 0.15 | 5 | 8.539 | 3.539 |
| 6 | KreKristiansen | 0.22 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 7 | Perfekt | 0.129 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 8 | March | 0.234 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | mccall | 0.234 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 10 | Hal | 0.11 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | PaulSk | 0.25 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 12 | BillC | 0.25 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 13 | LesJohnson | 0.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 14 | RiHo08 | 0.102 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 15 | Ray | 0.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 16 | YFNWG | 0.257 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 17 | ChuckL | 0.27 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 18 | denny | 0.275 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 19 | BobKoss | 0.278 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 20 | HaroldW | 0.278 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 21 | EdS | 0.3 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 22 | pdjakow | 0.3 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 23 | jim2 | 0.31 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 24 | AMac | 0.312 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 25 | ScottBasinger | 0.32 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | lance | 0.321 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 27 | PavelPanenka | 0.321 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 28 | Pieter | 0.324 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 29 | Dunna | 0.33 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 30 | ivp0 | 0.333 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 31 | KAP | 0.334 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 32 | angech | 0.01 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 33 | Tamara | 0.362 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 34 | SteveT | 0.362 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 35 | DaveE. | 0.37 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 36 | Skeptikal | 0.372 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 37 | BobW | 0.384 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 38 | dlb | 0.393 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 39 | ArfurBryant | 0.395 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 40 | pdm | 0.41 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 41 | JohnFPittman | 0.41 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 42 | PaulButler | 0.41 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 43 | JohnNorris | 0.42 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 44 | Genghis | 0.42 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 45 | nzgsw | 0.423 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 46 | mwgrant | 0.424 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
Wow! Third from last place. This predicting the future business is hard.
Roy Spencer
🙁
Piece of cake, Genghis!
At last I win back some of my Quatloos now to make it 2 in a row in the money.
Yeaaa….I can now afford to retire. Quatloos have to have a better exchange rate than my current retirement account ! !
Ed Forbes–
Yes. Quatloos are valuable. I’ve been investing quatloos when you deposit them and collect interest until the time when I pay out. I’ve made lots of quatloos!! It’s keeping me in fabric.
Ugh, another month out of the Quatloos. I guess I can take some comfort with my guesstimate being near the eminent Amac.
Looking again at the list, there seem to be a lot of professional climate scientist types who don’t put their Quatloos on the line.
@SB
Betting on month to month temperatures, you are just guessing at noise.
“Betting on month to month temperatures, you are just guessing at noise.”
If it was just guessing, how come every month someone gets it almost exactly correct?
steveta_uk (Comment #110942)
Well, I guess you got me there. 🙂
These are wild gyrations. I checked again with a very early TempLS calc. It’s down, but by about 0.08°C (.43 to .35).
“If it was just guessing, how come every month someone gets it almost exactly correct?”
How come almost everyone else gets it wrong?
It’s informed guessing.
Information is incomplete, some element of guessing is still involved.
I’m not sure why bugs is bothered by guessing at noise. Betting almost always involves an element of guessing. People guess at horseracing, sports racing, casino games etc. If there wasn’t an element of noise, no one would bother to bet.
There’s something really profound here – guessing at noise. /no sarc
Yep, global weather is variable. I missed the bounce up in Jan and underestimated the bounce down in Feb. Banging the bottom half again. I think my odds are better in Las Vegas.
It is interesting to note that many of the global temp anomaly high peaks happen in January. Coincidence or physical mechanism?
ivp0: I just noticed the same thing last night. It’s weird how many spikes in the record are January’s.
I bet if you went through the predictions over the years, looking at the spread from the actual value, you could work out if the skeptics/alarmists were having a good or bad month.
Peak ENSO anomaly often coincides with January. Not this year though as NINO 3.4 is heading down towards La Nina. Interesting.
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/weekly-nino3-4.png?w=640&h=418
There is more variability in the January to March period because the ENSO normally peaks in November to February (mid-December being the most common). 80% of the peaks are in this period and 20% of events reach a peak off of this cycle.
The 3 month lag means that there is a greater influence of warm El Nino and cold La Nina impacts in the Jan-March period than other months.
@Lucia
I’m not bothered by it, someone asked a question. I took it upon myself to answer it.
Since the house doesn’t take any Quatloos, if you have a degree of skill by at least knowing what the ballpark is and assuming others have less skill, over a long period of time you will eventually come out ahead.
A nice touch would be a running total.
steveta_uk (Comment #110942)
“If it was just guessing, how come every month someone gets it almost exactly correct?”
If you generate enough random numbers, some of them are bound to be close.
Having said that, it isn’t *all* noise.
The random numbers have to be generated within the bounds of probability.