Data Comparisons

UAH announced: Congratulations Anteros!

42 Comments

Roy announced the July UAH temperature anomaly: 0.174C. Anteros was aching for me to announce this: Win place and show went to Anteros, Dunna and AMac who divided all the winnings between them. Congratulations!

I planned to make a plot… but it turns out Roy has changed the location of the file and it seems to require downloading and then reading. This means I would have to do a bit of coding (grr!) But it’s much much too beautiful out today. So, I’m lazing out on this find Sunday morning and just giving you a table of showing everyone’s bet and how much you won (or failed to win.) Here they are:

Winnings in Quatloos for UAH TTL July, 2013 Predictions.
Rank Name Prediction (C) Bet Won
Gross Net
— Observed +0.174 (C)
1 Anteros 0.179 5 77.771 72.771
2 Dunna 0.163 5 62.217 57.217
3 AMac 0.193 3 7.012 4.012
4 Freezedried 0.195 4 0 -4
5 LaurieChilds 0.198 5 0 -5
6 RobertLeyland 0.201 4 0 -4
7 denny 0.218 3 0 -3
8 JohnNorris 0.13 5 0 -5
9 March 0.124 5 0 -5
10 BobW 0.231 3 0 -3
11 Skeptikal 0.115 3 0 -3
12 PavelPanenka 0.112 3 0 -3
13 JohanAbrahamsson 0.24 1 0 -1
14 ScottBasinger 0.243 5 0 -5
15 SteveF 0.247 5 0 -5
16 Perfekt 0.099 5 0 -5
17 EdForbes 0.285 5 0 -5
18 SteveT 0.287 4 0 -4
19 PaulButler 0.288 4 0 -4
20 DaveE. 0.29 5 0 -5
21 Bill 0.295 3 0 -3
22 angech 0.299 2 0 -2
23 DudleyRobertson 0.307 3 0 -3
24 BobKoss 0.308 5 0 -5
25 Tamara 0.311 5 0 -5
26 pdm 0.311 5 0 -5
27 Lance 0.313 5 0 -5
28 Genghis 0.032 5 0 -5
29 TimTheToolMan 0.32 5 0 -5
30 Owen 0.332 4 0 -4
31 bobdroege 0.345 1 0 -1
32 Ray 0.345 5 0 -5
33 JohnF.Pittman 0.351 5 0 -5
34 goshob 0.376 5 0 -5
35 RiHo08i 0.38 1 0 -1
36 Rick 0.44 5 0 -5
37 RobertInAz -0.15 1 0 -1

The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.

42 thoughts on “UAH announced: Congratulations Anteros!”

  1. Ah well, just as well I didn’t get to bet this month then, as I was too optimistic about dsyingthe same. Still believe that yhe, 12 mo mth average for Dec will be about 0.13c. Time alone will tell

  2. Have you seen the sea ice?

    After dropping rapidly, the decline slowed. It’s approaching the 2000 average. Interesting.

  6. Neven’s post on sea ice includes statements like

    ” This is crazy. :-)” , “I’m amazed.” and ” This is one strange melting season.”
    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/asi-2013-update-6-major-slowdown.html#comments

    For what it’s worth, my first reaction when someone linked the rise in see ice on twitter was, “wait to see if it’s instrument error!”

    Anyway, he finishes with

    “That’s all fine and dandy, but of course the melting season is far from over yet. I’ve been expecting that melting potential to come to full fruition for weeks now – and saw some of it in those few weeks in July – but even with some more freaky weather coming up, I don’t know what to expect any longer. This melting season is completely draining me, making me feel like I don’t know anything.

    Like I’ve been saying for weeks now a new record is a very difficult proposition. But even ending below 2007, 2010 and 2011 will be quite a feat, and that’s something I didn’t expect. At least not like this. I’ve seen slowdowns before, but this is out of this world.”

    I agree that the melt season is not over. It will be very interesting watching the next few weeks. And it is amazing.

  8. RichardLH

    Kudos for staying the course for end of year. It is early. Surprises are to be expected, and with a little luck and work maybe something pops out. Good luck, again.

    mwg

    but do remember to post as long as in the hunt.

  11. Hilarious – the first time I abandoned my complicated algorithm, and just picked a nice friendly number at random, I win the quatloos!

    It’s obviously the way forwards 🙂

    Regardless, as we say in Piccadilly circus, “The milky bars are on me”!

  12. WheresWallace
    This seems to be current PIOMAS ice volume:

    It’s above 2010-2012, but below the mean and below 2007. So, I guess relative to last year “recovered” a bit, but still low relative to the long term mean. They don’t show the 2000-2009 mean.

  13. It seems like all the years on the first graph Lucia posted have an inflection point right about now. maybe a feature….? the 3 decadal averages have a more muted version of this inflection point somewhere along the melt curve…maybe related to a thickness transition?

  14. lucia (Comment #118154)
    August 4th, 2013 at 11:06 am

    “Have you seen the sea ice?”

    Well I thought my bet for sea ice was a little short, but who knows…. and if I get that right (or even close)?

  15. mwgrant (Comment #118168)
    August 4th, 2013 at 7:43 pm

    “Kudos for staying the course for end of year. It is early. Surprises are to be expected, and with a little luck and work maybe something pops out. Good luck, again.”

    I would of course contend that luck has no part in it but no-one else thinks that apparently.

    Just simple averages. That’s all. 🙂

  16. Sea ice area has gone sideways: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

    As a result, it’s extremely unlikely that 2013 will be anywhere close to as low as 2012 or 2007 in either extent or area. There’s more high concentration ice and it looks like a lot less is being exported through the Fram Strait: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=02&fy=2012&sm=08&sd=03&sy=2013 In fact, it looks more like 2006 for total area, 4.9713 Mm² 8/2/2006, 4.7897 Mm² 8/2/2013.

  18. DeWitt,
    “it’s extremely unlikely that 2013 will be anywhere close to as low as 2012 or 2007 in either extent or area”
    .
    Oh no! This is terrible.

  19. Lucia (Comment #118204),

    Look at that yellow line! That’s mighty suspicious looking data. Looks like somebody is tampering with Arctic Sea Ice. Could be nuclear submarines with really really big freezers!

    I’m guessing somebody wants those quatloos pretty bad.

    /sillysarc off.

    Seriously, do you think that’s legit or would you guess it’s some sort of sensor problem?

  20. Mark–

    Seriously, do you think that’s legit or would you guess it’s some sort of sensor problem?

    I don’t know. When real time ‘weather’ type data looks weird, it’s sometimes worth waiting a few weeks to see what the people running instruments have to say.

  22. Earle,

    You’re right. I couldn’t see that in the screen shot. Not so unusual after all, maybe.

    Thanks

  23. The reason that the ice extent ‘fell off a cliff’ in August 2012 was that the ice area was much lower in 2012, 3.7872 Mm² compared to 4.7897 Mm² on the same day of year in 2013. The ratio of CT area to JAXA extent was 0.583 compared to 0.690 this year. Low concentration ice melts faster. The rate of melting correlates fairly well with insolation. Peak insolation was at the summer solstice in June so one would expect that the rate of melting is decreasing.

    I expect to see a low, possibly negative, number for the AMO index in July. That should be out in a week or so.

  24. Dewitt: “The reason that the ice extent ‘fell off a cliff’ in August 2012 …”

    Was the Cyclone on August 5th/6th.

    “Using Jaxa data, note that from July 20 all the way to Aug 5, Arctic Sea Ice area was higher than in 2007. The peak day was Aug 5th, when 2012 was 229,062 sq km more than 2007.

    Once the Cyclone hit, the ice broke and melted. It wasn’t the apocalypse in the Arctic. It was weather!”

    http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/great-arctic-cyclone-2012-caused-the-record-low/

  25. RichardLH

    “I would of course contend that luck has no part in it but no-one else thinks that apparently.”

    Of course there is some luck, because there is a random component to the observations and you can’t do anything about that. So again, good luck! :o)

  27. Ugh, lost the temperature bet again and now my sea ice bet is looking more and more dubious.

  28. mwgrant (Comment #118219)
    August 5th, 2013 at 4:21 pm

    “Of course there is some luck, because there is a random component to the observations and you can’t do anything about that. So again, good luck! )”

    Noise is always a problem, so there will be some margin of course. Luck is quessing the noise in my world then I suppose. 🙂

  29. Oh no — it’s been over a week, and I haven’t claimed my Show quatloos! I missed this post, and every other recent one — Feedly seems to have dropped The Blackboard from my feed… simple bug, or time to put my tin-foil hat back on?

    Well, now I’ll have something productive to do at night (catch up on comments).

  30. Amac–
    Feedly uses the Google App ID. Many hackers, scrapers, spammers and so on do do to. I white list feedley around this, but I don’t know whether Feedly’s IPs are in a range or nearly infinitely variabile. If they are in a range, I could easily let them through. Otherwise, they could get banned because something else comes through. I’ve looked at my general records:
    bannasties.com/BanNastiesScripts/ShowDetailsUA.php?UA=feedly
    And I can see it got banned last july. I need to monitor that and make sure my bypass works.

    ( Google needs to monitor Apps better. But they don’t. I end up banning everything with ‘appid’ in it and them try to write a bypass.)

  32. Interesting that DMI are reporting mean temperature above 80N to have dropped below freezing between 14 & 21 days earlier in 2013 than in 2007 & 2012.

    https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mahUzshKo6c/UgthJlmL7RI/AAAAAAAABxU/5Ftqz3o0sN4/w449-h877-no/dmiEarlyArcticFreezing.jpg

    Link to Source
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.php

    Matches with UAH 400mb drop in temp for August when Roy’s approx 0.2degC adjustment to Aqua’s drift is applied

    https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-edBeJFgD3W8/UgtoidtIH_I/AAAAAAAAByA/-NqpqkOkzYw/w544-h459-no/uah400mbAug2013.gif

  35. MikeR,

    Well below normal all summer, but there has just been a slight increase.
    Strange how there is little mention of this in the media, at least in the UK.
    GISS also showed below normal temperatures for the Arctic in July.

  36. Ray,
    It’s been cool here near ChiTown. They are predicting temperatures in the 90F’s in the upcoming days. But we’ve had an unusually small amount of that.

  37. Oh the betting– I’ll open tomorrow. I’ve been consolodating stuff in the ‘banning’ scripts, so I don’t want too much upheaval when I load the betting script.

  38. Re: MikeR (Aug 18 09:41),

    Go back through the archive. I don’t think that ice melt correlates to air temperature. There are more important factors like wind direction and ocean currents. The main factor, though, is radiation. Ice melts because the sun shines on it and water freezes because it’s radiating away more energy than it receives as the sun approaches the horizon. The air warms because it’s exposed to either melt pools on the ice surface or open water. The result is about the same.

  39. Re: DeWitt
    Interesting. I certainly noticed that the time that minimum ice is generally reached is ages away, so obviously the ice keeps right on melting. I thought it might slow down, though!

  40. Re: MikeR (Aug 18 21:22),

    That’s the temperature at 80N. Let me dig up my insolation spreadsheet.

    Daily insolation at 80N peaks at the summer solstice. For the particular year I assembled the data, that was on 6/20 and the value was 518.51 W/m² and because of the low sun angle and high albedo, a significant fraction is reflected, more over ice than water. If I use the average annual albedo at 80N of 0.5, absorbed solar energy would be 259.3 W/m². By 8/18, it’s down to 293.05 or 146.5 W/m² absorbed. DLR at 0 C surface temperature adds another ~200 W/m². At 0 C for an emissivity of 1 emission is 315.64 W/m². So by 8/18, you’re normally pretty close to breakeven. The temperature over melt pools or open water isn’t going to get much above 0C. The excess energy will just be absorbed and either melt more ice or diffuse downward.

  41. Surely the temperature is the average north of 80 degrees, although I am not sure if that makes any difference.

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