Roy has posted the September, 2013 anomaly. It was so high the person betting the largest value won all the qualtoos! And we even had late betting which, in principle, gives everyone ‘clues’ to base their bets on. Wow.
Alas, due to late betting and the two top winners each wagering 5 quatloos (the max) the pot was depleted before the third place winner could take anything home! The only two in the money are JohnNorris and PaulButler who pocketed a wad of Quatloos. (Use your winnings wisely guys!)
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | +.367 (C) | |||
| 1 | JohnNorris | 0.364 | 5 | 86.825 | 81.825 |
| 2 | PaulButler | 0.333 | 5 | 50.675 | 45.675 |
| 3 | TimTheToolMan | 0.32 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 4 | billc | 0.29 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 5 | Ray | 0.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 6 | mwgrant | 0.23 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 7 | JohnF.Pittman | 0.211 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 8 | ArfurBryant | 0.202 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | Ray | 0.195 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 10 | RickA | 0.192 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | denny | 0.188 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 12 | LesJohnson | 0.17 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 13 | Anteros | 0.163 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 14 | Bill | 0.156 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 15 | Hal | 0.155 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 16 | GeorgeTobin | 0.15 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 17 | YFNWG | 0.15 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 18 | BobW | 0.147 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 19 | RobertLeyland | 0.124 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 20 | March | 0.123 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 21 | KreKristiansen | 0.117 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 22 | Freezedried | 0.115 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 23 | RiHo08i | 0.111 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 24 | Lance | 0.101 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 25 | Perfekt | 0.099 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | obob | 0.099 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 27 | RobertInAz | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 | Skeptikal | 0.085 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 29 | stevet | 0.078 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 30 | mct | 0.078 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 31 | Simon | 0.8 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
Can quatloos be traded in for bitcoins?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-03/uncle-sam-takes-a-bite-out-of-bitcoin.html
“It was so high the person betting the largest value won all the quatloos!”
Technically, Simon (at 0.8) had the highest guess. I agree with Ray though, that it may well have been a typo.
Once again I am dead center and thus firmly in the Consensus. I am the consensus. How can I be wrong?
This hangup about actual observables, this empirical obsession… the guy who won the quatloos doesn’t think like the rest of us so how can he be right?
MikeR (Comment #120035)
I don’t know. But I think Silk Road may not be accepting either for the time being. 🙂
http://qz.com/131084/silk-road-collected-9-5-million-bitcoin-and-only-11-75-million-exist/
UAH is the high outlier, both compared to RSS and surface Land/Ocean indices ( even wrt GISS ) since 1995. The trend appears to be growing ( difference is greater since 2001 than since 1995 ).
UAH website promises a version 6.0 which I’m sure many are waiting for. Interesting that there’s not a cry for revisions as long as the trend numbers are higher than other data sets.
Not being too drunk on my winnings … but towards the end of the month channel 6 went (slightly) higher than any of the previous years they show. Even though we are still in ENSO neutral conditions.
Is the so called GW pause a bit of a mirage ? I expect your guess is just as good as mine!
My third win!
George Tobin : “… the guy who won the quatloos doesn’t think like the rest of us so how can he be right??”
You’re right, I don’t follow the consensus, I just talk to my bristlecone pine and it tells me what the Global Temp is going to be.
Yep – the .8 was a typo. Oh well…
Can I borrow your bristlecone, John?
The smell of quatloos fresh from the oven is so intoxicating… Let’s gear up for October wagers!
IMS total ice is up above 2006 levels…?
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/ims_data.jpg
that’s NH total lake and sea ice. wasn’t expecting that sort of thing. but I guess near-ocean areas probably dominate the inland contribution(?)
tisdale had a mid september SST update i guess it got booted off the front page. the unusual warming in the N pacific had abated…+ more ice….colder ‘Tober. bring on the bets.