Last months UAH temperature was a scorcher proving that no matter how late I get the betting form out, we remain clueless about the likely temperature anomaly for the month. So, I’m going to leave the getting form open until 10/30/2013. (I think this means closes at midnight on 10/30 in… England? ) This should permit Americans whose communities permit trick-or-treating on Halloween itself time to shepard their children door to door without worrying about needing to submit last minute bets. 🙂
Here is the form. You know the drill.
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=10?cutOffDay=31?cutOffYear=2013?DateMetric=October2013)sockulator]
For newcomers to Lucia’s Casino, we are wagering on just how hot (or cold 😉 ) October will turn out to be, thinking in terms of global average temperature. For betting purposes, “the right answer” is Roy Spencer’s analysis of the “temperature anomaly,” with the current version known as “UAH V5.6.” Here is Prof. Spencer’s latest post on the subject — look at the month-by-month “GLOBAL” column — and here is the latest Blackboard post on the subject.
PS — if you are a spambot, remember that you must prove that you know how to add before your bet will be accepted. You might also take into account that the oceans are unlikely to boil away in the next ten days, as is implied by a bet such as 999 C.
re: “… proving that no matter how late I get the betting form out, we remain clueless about the likely temperature anomaly for the month.”
Whoa, whoa, whoa! We?
Lucia, have you considered a contest for the maximum Arctic sea ice?
Susan Crockford:
“Here is why the September extent doesn’t matter to polar bears: it is the extent in June that is important to polar bear survival. June is the end of the critical spring feeding period for polar bears (see previous post here) – healthy bears eat more seals over a shorter period of time from March to June than any other time of year. After the end of June, most bears have enough fat to survive a fast of 4 months or more.”
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/10/20/september-sea-ice-ballyhoo-and-why-it-doesnt-matter-to-polar-bears/
John Norris–
I used to be perpetually worried that if I got the betting form out to late, all the bets would be closely clustered to the ultimately reported value and the rule about tie breaking would dictate everything!
I find doing the “proving I am not a ‘bot” maths challenge quite characteristic of the rising tide of carbon fascism;
stand up for silicon rights!
I heard a rumor someone named Roy S. might be coming around on Halloween to trick the high-stakes gamblers here with an entry based on the latest information. Perhaps he could be bribed with the treat of a cookie not to enter.
Hey, somehow my browser won’t display any entry-point for bets….?
Anyway, with the list up I finally can employ my “gas-station-localization-principle”. (And combine with eye-balling the UAH MSU chanels).
My bet is thus: 5 Quat’s on 0.252.
Cassanders
Cassander–
What do you mean? Do you mean the betting box is closed?
Re: Don B (Oct 22 05:23),
Umm, June isn’t the maximum. June is near the maximum melting rate. The average extent for the month of June is quite close to the annual average extent for that year, which isn’t declining all that fast. If the bears can fast for 4 months, I would think that November extent would be more important than June. That has been declining almost as fast as September, and is looking decidedly non-linear (increasing rate of decline) at the moment, although I expect to see improvement this year.
Also, if that thesis were true, then I don’t see how the bears around Hudson’s Bay survive. The November average extent (MASIE) in 2012 was less than 30% of the June average extent. The June average extent is still about 80% of the maximum extent (completely frozen over).
Hmmm, boxed in by Bill and AMac. Do they work for NSA or something?
Bill 0.303
JohnNorris 0.302
AMac 0.301
Here is my analysis of the October betting.
I have excluded Cassanders’ bet from this as I don’t know if it will be allowed by Lucia.
The vast majority of bets predict a fall compared with September and I find myself as the only one predicting an increase, with the highest figure of all. Hmm!
NO. OF BETS 29
MAX 0.390
MIN 0.114
MEAN 0.227
MEDIAN 0.231
STD DEV 0.077
MEAN 1-15 0.223
MEAN 15-29 0.235
MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.305
MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.150
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 65.52
ABOVE MEAN (%) 55.17
BELOW MEAN (%) 44.83
ABOVE SEP (%) 3.45
BELOW SEP (%) 96.55
FWIW, UK Met Office predicts October in the UK has been the warmest since 1910
Louise (Comment #120626)
“FWIW, UK Met Office predicts October in the UK has been the warmest since 1910”
Do you mean this?
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/
It says “likely to be one of the warmest” and it was joint 5th on the 28th.
Since the last few days have been quite chilly, it might not be the warmest. CET was joint 6th on the 30th and the warmer months were all since 1910.
But why do the MO insist on announcing weather statistics before the end of the month? They have been caught out before.
Louise,
The final mean temperature for the UK according to the MO was 11.2c (0.4c lower than the figure for the 28th) making it the 9th warmest October using the regional data which goes back to 1910.
Ryan Maue has October surface temperatures cooler than September. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2013.png
DeWitt Payne (Comment #120616)
October 31st, 2013 at 11:57 am
Re: Don B (Oct 22 05:23),
“Umm, June isn’t the maximum”
Of course. Two different topics, and dates.
1) Since we bet on minimum ice, why not a bet on maximum ice (which is usually by early March)? Marcia and Judith’s stadium wave hypothesis says Arctic ice is cyclical, so let’s keep our eyes on it.
2) Dr. Crockford has written at her polarbearscience.com blog that thick ice in the spring reduces the number of seals, and polar bears starve. Another excuse to look at the spring ice.