Ooppss….
Owing to an embarrassing glitch, the previous announcements of winners for the February bets was wrong, wrong, wrong. Those of you who won can now step up and get your well deserved winnings. The real win, place show went to: Rick , RiHo08i and Dunna. Come get your quatloos!
(Those of you who collected un-fair winnings: turn them back in. Or just fail to notice that your winnings are ill-gotten — due to my screw up!)
The hopefully not screwed up winnings are:
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | 0.172 (C) | |||
| 1 | Rick | 0.18 | 5 | 82.621 | 77.621 |
| 2 | RiHo08i | 0.156 | 3.5 | 46.268 | 42.768 |
| 3 | Dunna | 0.189 | 5 | 52.877 | 47.877 |
| 4 | Tom | 0.19 | 2 | 16.921 | 14.921 |
| 5 | MikeP | 0.193 | 5 | 33.454 | 28.454 |
| 6 | EdS | 0.195 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 7 | RickA | 0.195 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 8 | KreKristiansen | 0.143 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 9 | RobertLeyland | 0.207 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 10 | ScottBasinger | 0.21 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | LesJohnson | 0.212 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 12 | March | 0.123 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 13 | DocMartyn | 0.121 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 14 | Perfekt | 0.119 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 15 | NielsANielsen | 0.227 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 16 | Angech | 0.23 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 17 | Lance | 0.231 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | JohnNorris | 0.113 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 19 | JSW | 0.232 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 | AnthonyVioli | 0.233 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 21 | RobertInAz | 0.233 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 22 | Clyde | 0.234 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 23 | PavelPanenka | 0.241 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 24 | Dunna | 0.243 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 25 | nzgsw | 0.243 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | GeorgeTobin | 0.245 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 27 | denny | 0.245 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 28 | TimothySorenson | 0.25 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 29 | Ray | 0.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 30 | HeberRizzo | 0.253 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 31 | BobW | 0.255 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 32 | ANteros | 0.257 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 33 | SteveF | 0.257 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 34 | mct | 0.257 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 35 | lucia | 0.26 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 36 | Denisc | 0.261 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 37 | Douglas | 0.261 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| 38 | Hal | 0.262 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 39 | TroubleWithTribbles | 0.266 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 40 | EdForbes | 0.27 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 41 | EarleWilliams | 0.282 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 42 | Motorbug | 0.285 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 43 | LukeWarmist | 0.287 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 44 | edward | 0.29 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 45 | Bill | 0.293 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 46 | DaleHofstetter | 0.297 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 47 | UnfrozenCavemanMD | 0.299 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 48 | Pdm | 0.301 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 49 | Andrewkennett | 0.313 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 50 | SteveT | 0.314 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 51 | eddieo | 0.314 | 3.14 | 0 | -3.14 |
| 52 | hunter | 0.025 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 53 | TimTheToolMan | 0.32 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 54 | BobKoss | 0.333 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 55 | AMac | 0.362 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
OOPS! Recalculating….
Temperature took an “unexpected” dip — or at least dropped mre than most bettors expected. on the other hand, Hal’s prognosticating skills allowed him to peg the value and take th #1 Spot. Good winning bet, Hal! Meanwhile, Freezedried and Rick took the place and show position! How did I do? Well, my new method of betting the average over recent months? Not so hot. I came in 40 out of 62 bettors. Here’s how the rest of you did:
Lucia,
My bet of 0.18c was not February bet, but my March one.
For some reason the March bets are being included in the February table and are replacing the genuine Feb. ones.
See comments by others in the March betting blog.
As Ray said, many recent “Feb” bets were actually made after the Feb close-out from the March post. Including, I believe, Hal and Freezedried. Hope you haven’t paid out the quatloos to them yet.
Lucia: Same as Ray. My March bet was put in the February bin…
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2014/bet-on-february-uah-3/
I was crossed out with my Feb bet of 0.212, and the March one of 0.295 was added.
Hey, Lucia, the same goes for me:
I commented on the “bet for march”
-thread, and placed a bet on what appeared to the March betting. Somehow, my bet wound up in the Feb-score.
Shoot! I see what happened. I forgot to type a tag in. I’ll go in the database… I’ll have to hand edit. (It’s easy but tedious.)
I am still in the middle of that pack (supported by the consensus!) regardless of what the actual data is or whether it’s changed or used upside down or just wrong. My uncentered principal coin-toss analysis method is obviously robust.
Hey, great!
With Lucia’s correction I moved up from 60th closest to 54th closest. With that rate of improvement it won’t be long before I win.
Lucia – this has the beginnings of a very informative thread. Please don’t let Boris ruin it. Thanks.
I was 43 out of 55. That’s why I only bet 3, saving the other 2 for a burger and fries after I lose every month.
Um, I bet under [on advice] and lost. It went even lower. Need more advice on betting .
My stragedy is working. I’m in the top 10, but just as poor as I would be if I was 50th.
Unexpected dip? I expected it to dip more.
@ John Norris
…..due to the experienced low tempreatures in North America/Canada? Much of Europe and part of northern Eurasia have been significantly warmer than normal this winter. I was more expecting a level outcome.
Cassanders
Cassanders, I don’t bet my “Latest Global Temps” quatloos based on local temps. I’m far less scientific then that. I look at the chart and just guess the direction and amplitude. But with that I’ve got 3 wins!
Has there been any progress in setting up real-life climate temperature prediction markets?
If AGW proponents really believes in their models’ 95% confidence bounds, they can sell 10:1 odds to all skeptics at a tidy 2:1 expected profit and thereby finance more global warming research. It’s win-win!
If they’d only thought to do this 17 years ago…