As some know, I screwed up the entry form for the June Bets. (Specifically, I cut and pasted the April entry form and failed to change the ‘DateMetric’ field to “June,2014). Luckily, a visitor noticed the problem and I changed the DateMetric field. For this reason, all early bets were “invisible” (though still in the database.) I ran the SQL update command
UPDATE `data_base_tname`.`table_name` SET `DateMetric` = ‘June, 2014’ WHERE `Date_Submitted` > ‘2014-06-16’
June Bets should be updated with all bets previously noted as “April” (but placed after Jun 16) should now be categorized as June. Those who wish to proof read, please let me know if you found errors here:
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=6?cutOffDay=25?cutOffYear=2014?DateMetric=June, 2014?)sockulator]
(I did see other questions in comments– but I think it’s best to let you look at the current output before hunting for individual issues which likely were corrected by this single command.)
The only thing I don’t understand is my apparent second bet, when I only bet once.
Anyway here is the revised analysis.
Still a massive majority in favour of a decline compared with May.
The most popular bet is now 0.300c which is also the median.
NO. OF BETS 59
MAX 0.555
MIN -0.130
MEAN 0.286
MEDIAN 0.300
MODE 0.300
STD DEV 0.089
MEAN 1-30 0.279
MEAN 30-59 0.295
MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.375
MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.197
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 83.05
ABOVE MEAN (%) 55.93
BELOW MEAN (%) 42.37
ABOVE MAY (%) 27.12
BELOW MAY (%) 72.88
It looks like June UAH is out and = .303 c.
Thanks Lucia.
I can’t believe I guessed four thousandths of a degree from the actual figure and it still looks like I’m missing out on quatloos 🙁
Well done lucky winners, tho! 🙂
I always think some of the low bets are funny. -0.13? Really? Even a stone-cold cooler ought to know its not going to get that cold that fast. Even a volcanic eruption wouldn’t do t hat.
The betting was remarkably accurate!
Does someone have inside knowledge?
I bet .39 and it is not shown. Did the NSA steal my quatloos?
The number is in.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2014-0-30-deg-c/
Am I in the running at 0.31? Too many 0.3’s. We need a T adjustment.
The uber accuracy is amazing. Reminds me of the wagons circling under the uncertainty pressure. When the breakout comes we will all be surprised. I vote staying in the middle 2 more months.
July UAH = 0.303, my bet 0.309, and still there are 7 of 59 bets closer than +/- 0.006, so not even in the top 10%. It’s a tough crowd!
Personally, I think we should run a TOB adjustment to each persons wagered temp based on their gridded IPC address. So that we can adjust their temp. estimate.
Homogenous adjustments would not seemingly be possible as we don’t have along enough record. (We are all discontinuous!)
Then we can infill the gridded world from our data points. And get our groups average temp.
Then we would would be fun to see:
Data point: +.301
Adj1: Pass QC.
Adj2: -.05
05:45 GMT -105,45 TOB adjustment: -.05
Adj3: (Homogeneity skipped)
Adj4: FILNET complete: 164,345 infilled data.
Final point estimate: +.261
Present Global point estimate (Based on 24 estimates) +.312
Or:
Data point: -.12
Adj1: Failed QC. Program terminated.
Results have been outs for days, but still no prizes awared?
I think Lucia is pocketting the interest from the Quatloos, hence the slow turnaround.
Lucia allowed herself to be sucked into a partly useful and partly useless time sink vortex having to do with the whole Chan/Ellis saga. Even though most readers are uninterested in that, I will reveal more on that issue when the time is ripe.
For now: it’s the 4th of July. I’m dusting, vaccumming etc. in anticipation of company.