AP: Chances of Passing

Previously, a reader asked if he should advise his son to take or avoid AP Physics 1. There are a lot of things to consider when making the decision. Among them, I think all kids and parents should be aware of when deciding on whether a kid takes a particular AP test. The College Board has recently posted score distributions and a kid at reddit kindly did some processing. The College Board considers a 3 “passing”. Here’s a diagram ranking which classes had the highest and lowest percentage scores of 3 or greater:

Students on reddit are debating why some classes have high pass rates relative to others. I think there are lots of reasons and will be happy to share in comments. But what I wanted people pondering kids choices for High School physics to see is which class has the lowest pass rate: AP Physics 1.

13 thoughts on “AP: Chances of Passing”

  1. Hi Lucia,

    Funny that you just posted this. I was going to ask the question on a different thread. My son got his score today and it was a 5 on AP European history test. I know that is good, but what does it mean in terms of the percentage of right answers he had and what percentile his score belongs in. Hope you or someone else can answer the question.

    JD

  2. As far as I know, on most tests AP just gives 1-5 with the only exceptions being they might have a news story if a kid gets 100% on the test. On some tests, they might have a breakdown for two parts of the test, but I’m not sure which.

    I tried to hunt around to find what % grade corresponds to score cut-offs. That varies from test to test and my understanding is a 5 can be a surprisingly low grade. I’ve heard rumors of numbers like 50% on some tests .

    This site claims to figure out the pass scores

    http://appass.com/calculators/home
    It looks suspiciously like you need to get 95/130 on European history to get above 4. So <73.1% of the points will get you a 5. It looks like ~7.9% got 5s But you can fiddle around as see if it seems to say the same thing to you.

    I don't know what that site calculator is based on, but it looks suspiciously like the information is crowdsourced by asking high school teachers. I think high school AP teachers are told their students individual scores so they can report the lowest % scores that got a 5 for their students and so on. If enough report, someone could figure out the cut scores.

    If the high school teachers do get the individual scores, you could ask his teacher. Maybe they would tell you. They might not know percentiles.

    I wish more data was available to the public. It would be nice to know how local schools are doing in the aggregate. If my local high school has lots of students getting 1s vs 5s I would want to know that! (As far as I’m concerned there is very little good in having a class called AP if fewer than half the kids get 3 or more. I think this even for classes where fewer than half get 3 or more across the country. Something is going wrong with that class when that is happening.)

  3. Lucia, remember that AP stands for Advanced Placement and such courses are meant to be rigorous. The College Board sets standards, audits, and approves courses to be equivalent to college level courses. I would be suspicious that if too many high school students passed, the course might not be up to par.

    Here is recent research on the effectiveness of AP courses: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2158244016682996

  4. Gary,
    I’m aware of that.
    I would also say that generally, a 5 on an AP test does not correspond to an A in a college level class at a half way decent university. It’s generally at best a B.

    I would also be suspicious if too many high school students passed especially as so many are taking them.

  5. Gary

    The correlations range from a low of r = .033 for the AP Spanish Language and Culture test to a high of r = .695 for the AP English Language and Composition, with a median correlation of r = .541 (Ewing et al., 2006, p. 8).

    Spanish was my first language. I’ve forgotten it. But all I can say about this correlation is “well… duh.”

    Mom wouldn’t let me take Spanish in highschool because her theory was that it would be “too easy” and I should be required to learn to “work”. I think she was unwise and should have let me take Spanish. But I also think she was correct that taking Spanish would have been “too easy”– I would have had a YYYYuge advantage over other kids in the class. Because even though I don’t speak spanish any more, my brain still “holds” a lot of Spanish. (I understand more than many people and certainly more than people who have never taken spanish.)

  6. One possible reason for differential pass rates is what year of high school the takers are in. Some of these will only be taken by seniors. In our high school, human geography and world history are sophomore classes. So my son took these AP tests in his soph year.

  7. Stan,
    I agree. Some of these college level tests are taken by quite young students. That may contribute to the fail rate. (Some kids wisely don’t bother to take the test even if they take the class. But I know some schools don’t like them to skip the test. )

  8. Hi Lucia,

    I am working to make sure that my 11-year-old daughter doesn’t forget her perfect Chinese. Every year, she spends a month in China with her relatives, and her Chinese comes back. However, part of her stay is boring, and I am afraid, counter-productive.

    …..
    In any event, I am interested in your retention/lack of retention of Spanish. Do you think if you spent 1 month in a Spanish speaking country or region that your Spanish speaking abilities would come back significantly? (By way of background, my father spoke all Italian until he was 7, and then totally forgot the Italian.) Looking back on it, do you think that your parents should have been more pro-active in taking actions to have you remember your Spanish skills? Or, do you think it would have been counter-productive to do so?

    …..
    Part of my question is motivated by the question of: at what age does a language become so embedded in a young person’s mind that they will retain a significant portion of it even if it is only rarely used for long periods of time.

    JD

  9. JD Ohio,

    I am interested in your retention/lack of retention of Spanish. Do you think if you spent 1 month in a Spanish speaking country or region that your Spanish speaking abilities would come back significantly?

    My Mom’s theory was yes and I went back to El Salvador for about 6 weeks when I was 13. The problem was everyone spoke English at home in the Simon house. So…. no.

    I do think if I had a book to look over conjugation and I spent a month in a non-English speaking household, my Spanish would come back. My main problem is conjugating verbs. Of course my vocabulary is smallish too. But the main glitch is conjugation.

    I do think my Mom should have let me take Spanish in grade school. I could perfectly well have switched to French in high school and gotten 4 years of another language, but I would then know how to conjugate Spanish. Not speaking Spanish doesn’t cause me any difficulties, but it is sort of a shame. Also: potentially, there could have been opportunities with Spanish and translating.

    I don’t know when it’s embedded. But for me, spanish is sort of “in there”, just sort of “blocked” by lack of conjugation.

    I really don’t know if it’s age though. For me, French is “in there” too. I’m halting initially, but after 1-2 days I can jabber away in French. The words come back.

  10. Hi Lucia,

    Could you tell me when you stopped regularly speaking Spanish? (By the way when my children visit China, they have to speak Chinese because their relatives don’t speak English)

    JD

  11. Some yes. Some no. The question about units for weight is too easy. The question about the twins would be reasonable. Questions about atomic number AP Physics 2, and I’m not sure it’s a application of a concept– though it is a factoid. The question about the helium balloon…. make it something with large density hanging down and that would be on it. Mixing it with lower density would require AP Phys 2 concepts.
    The ice cube is AP Physics 2– absolutely. And so on.

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