Ivermectin causes sterilization in 85 percent of men, study finds.
No I haven’t read the study. But so much for proven safe. Well, I guess sterlity doesn’t kill you. But some would consider that a not-so-great side effect.
Open Thread.
Update: Snopes says this was reported, but in a journal that is not credible. And so on.
135 thoughts on “Ivermectin: Causes Sterility?”
Comments are closed.
Hummmmm…
I rather think that in a widely used drug, such an obvious side effect would have been noticed at some point. Ivermectin has been widely used in Africa (river blindness); complete sterility following treatment night be noticed in high-birth-rate Africa. There is very near zero reason to think the claimed effect is true. It is a scare story likely spread by people who don’t want ivermectin to work.
Steve F is right.
The more lurid the details the higher the burden of proof.
Few medical treatments result in high levels of sterility.
Radiation and some of the oncology [cancer treating drugs].
a scare story used with Anabolic steroids.
Very little else.
“But so much for proven safe.”
I think it might have been used in animal experiments [smiley face] without much harm. In fact it might have proved useful.
Not so keen on Ivermectin?
I have not followed this medication other than to note it is one of a number of alternative medications that some people are trying.
Usually the rarer and harder to get the medication or treatment, the more exotic it is the more outlandish the claims.
Whether in what it is purported to cure or what side effect it might have.
Before I found snopes, I was going to find the paper. I wanted to see how whether the test compared to me who had riverblindess and were not treated.
Australia has banned the prescription for COIVD use.
Aus government is calling up old GPS to help out as the mini outbreak gets a little worse.
Might be able to go back to work for a couple of months.
Earlier they put a lot of road blocks in the way of volunteers.
Now they want us again.
Very much like the pied Piper of Hamelin.
angech,
Wear an N95 mask.
SteveF (Comment #205690): “There is very near zero reason to think the claimed effect is true.”
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An understatement. Ivermectin has been used for decades. It is on the WHO list of essential medications. If the claim were for a serious side effect in 5% of cases, there would be near zero reason to trust it. But 85%? We can be 100% sure that claim is false, at least for using the drug in the normal manner.
Well, Judge Cooper’s been overridden in FL, mask mandates for school kids are subject to parental opt out again.
Story here.
Good.
Did you people not get the memo? Ivermectin is to only be referred to as “horse dewormer” from here on out. I think over a space of two days the bulk of the media started using this term.
I find it a bit humorous that experts ignore * 3 million * people who attend college football games every week. They latch onto things like Sturgis for super spreader events. That’s 5x Sturgis rallies every week. Football is outdoors which helps, but I’m under the impression that people don’t walk to the stadium and I’m just not seeing social distancing and masks. I’m all for the return of fans but only noting the selectivity with which outrage is doled out and how the media covers these things.
Tom Scharf,
Funny how the Nobel Committee made an exception for ivermectin; they don’t normally give out Nobel prizes in medicine to people who develop horse dewormers. Odd too the WHO includes a horse dewormer on its list of essential medications. The media bias would be humorous save for all the social damage it does.
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Speaking of MSM bias, CNBC accurately reported the appeals court had ruled in favor of DeSantis, and that his “no mask mandate” order is back in force. They failed to even mention that there is not and has never been a no-mask mandate for Florida Schools. What DeSantis actually ordered was a parental opt-out for any local mask mandate…. IMO, this is willfully inaccurate reporting. They spent the remainder of the story explaining how right judge John Cooper was to block the “no mandate” order and how wrong the First Circuit Appeals court was to rule in favor of DeSantis.
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Hopelessly biased and inaccurate reporting demeans and diminishes the MSM….. and they apparently do not care.
The ~100M+ people who have been previously infected with covid in the US cannot use that status to avoid the vaccine mandate, a clear signal that this continues to be political driven. The relative protection from a previous infection versus the vaccine continues to be completely ignored to the point of not even studied in the US as far as I can tell. This continues to be incomprehensible to me given the amount of money dumped into covid and the importance of this from only a science perspective, not just policy.
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https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/employment-law/pages/coronavirus-vaccine-mandate-for-those-who-have-gotten-covid-19.aspx
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states that people should be vaccinated regardless of whether they have already had COVID-19.
“That is because it’s not certain how long someone is protected from getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19,” said Emily Harbison, an attorney with Baker McKenzie in Houston. So if an employer has a mandatory vaccine policy, it should require vaccines for all employees and not create an exception for those who have already had COVID-19, she said.”
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https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/proof-of-natural-immunity-cannot-be-used-in-lieu-of-proof-of-vaccination/283-d4a18d89-22b6-4e83-a2b3-13699472a2c7
“The risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19 outweighs the benefit of natural immunity. Given the variability in immune response, a lot of people who get infected naturally can get infected again, in sometimes as short as a few months,” the OHA document reads.
The Washington State Department of Health also addressed the question on its website.
“The proclamation does not provide an exemption for individuals who have previously been infected with COVID-19. Experts do not yet know how long you are protected from getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19 and recommend getting vaccinated regardless of whether you already had COVID-19.”
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As far as I can tell experts don’t know because they aren’t even looking and don’t want to know. I call BS on this. We simply have no idea how many people who are being hospitalized with a new infection that had been previously infected? No clue? Not even interested?
mark bofill,
See comment #205738 from yesterday.
Sorry, missed that Steve. Yesterday was a hellish day for me.
Tom Scharf,
I suspect the Supreme Court will look at studies showing previous infection is multiple times more effective than the vaccines and absolutely hammer the DOJ lawyers… Kavanaugh won’t say, “Are you being willfully obtuse or are you just very stupid?”, but it won’t be far from that. I do not think Biden’s vaccination mandate has a prayer at the SC.
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Of course, I am sure many (most?) in the Biden administration understand it will be struck down. But I also am sure it is 100% a political gambit, designed to increase Biden’s approval numbers, not to get more people vaccinated.
Tom Scharf (Comment #205755),
Hush!
If you keep carrying on like that, people might start to realize just how pernicious the “experts” have been. Then they might stop trusting the experts. If that happens, then how is the government going to get us all injected with microchips to track us?
On the other hand, I suppose that horse is already out of the barn. Dewormed or not.
The delta surge appears to have peaked in the USA. By the time the Biden administration tries to enforce an OSHA mandate, the rates will have already dropped dramatically. That will make prevailing in the inevitable lawsuits less likely, even at the district level. I can imagine a Republican judge in Texas or Mississippi issuing a nation-wide stay, while Democrat judges all affirm the OSHA rules. That means the SC will get involved immediately; even mealy-mouth Roberts won’t tolerate dueling district court orders.
This breakout has peaked in the south which is the driver of this one. Previous behavior has been regional with different timing. The Midwest did well for a while previously, then didn’t. KY, WV, TN now have large case loads but may be near peak. It remains hard to predict, but we shall see what happens when we enter fall/winter and people are driven indoors. I think it remains a function of the number of unvaccinated / uninfected people you have left in your region and seasonality (+ factor X?). Pay me now or pay me later.
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It would be interesting to know that number and monitor the relative outbreaks. I think we are seeing places that had a large level of previous infections having lower death rates. It’s possible FL’s higher death rates this time might be their relatively older population finally showing its toll.
Tom Scarf,
I will post a graph of a regression model, showing actual state-by-state new cases per day versus cases per day predicted by a model based on fraction of people over 65, cumulative covid deaths, and fraction of people vaccinated in each state. 53% of variance is accounted for by those three variables; the remainder has to be other factors.
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It is possible there is a large seasonal influence, but I will be shocked if states with very high death totals and also very high vaccination rates suffer the kind of surge this winter suffered by FL, MS, AL, SC, TN, KY, etc this summer. These sates all have higher unvaccinated populations than most northern states. FL also has a very large elderly population, many of whom have, unfortunately, resisted getting vaccinated.
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It is worth keeping in mind that even many northers states have already suffered ‘mini’ delta surges at thexsame time as the larger surge in southern states.
Ivermectin is also prescribed for humans for head lice too and many animals other than horses. My friend who raises sheep said the other day that sheep worms/parasites have become resistant to ivermectin.
The article in question reminds me of the article I saw on the web years ago that we were all going to die if the atmospheric CO2 level went much over 400ppmv. I think it was because blood pH would get too low. The author’s only references were other articles he wrote, always a bad sign. The C02 level in nuclear submarines gets as high as 2%, btw.
Tom Scharf,
Replace ‘recovering from COVID-19’ with ‘getting vaccinated’ and you have another true statement. The same thing goes with the other statements you quoted, especially the ‘certain’ part. So yes, total BS. It’s science, so you’re almost never certain. Then there’s the part where they’re not really looking. We still don’t know how many more people have been infected compared confirmed cases. And some people who are vaccinated get sick again in a few months.
Honestly, as my main dance teacher who I danced with 2 times a week has antibodies, I sort of wonder if I could have had an entirely symptomless infection too. As I’m vaxxed, I imagine I could easily get an symptomless infection if exposed. I’d say there is a fair chance I was. Though, of course, that assumes Vlad would be infectious while symptomless himself. There was week when he said he was tired and he acted a little tired for him!
It’s not unlikely that a fair number of vaccinated people who aren’t “toooooo” careful have had symptomless cases and we just don’t know.
I’m still planning on a booster though. I wish we had one that was tweaked for multiple spikes.
Lucia,
“I’m still planning on a booster though. I wish we had one that was tweaked for multiple spikes.”
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Your hope for a rationally designed booster that targets different spike proteins is fanciful. The FDA would never allow such a thing. The FDA is constantly in the way of medical progress; they obviously see this as one, if not the principle, part of their jobs… make people suffer illness they could avoid; the other is making sure Trump would not be re-elected. The FDA should be broadly defunded. They are a far greater problem than they are a solution. Defund them almost entirely, and let Allah sort out the aftermath.
SteveF,
But this is nothing new for the FDA since at least the thalidomide episode. The organization that has failed the most spectacularly in the face of COVID-19, IMO, is the CDC.
DeWitt,
Agreed, the CDC is even worse…. corrupt, dishonest, and willing to sacrifice rational decisions for political expediency. The CDC should be even MORE deeply defunded than the FDA…. two peas in a rotting, stinking, pod…. a pod that should go to the compost heap. Really they are among the most destructive and least accountable Federal bureaucracies. It is far worse than simple incompetence, it is willful dishonesty in pursuit of political objectives.
SteveF,
I looked up some more data on the Porsche Mission R concept electric race car. The battery pack is only 82kWh and the fifteen minute charge time refers to a charge from 5 to 80% capacity or 61.5kWh, ~250kW average @ 900V. If the power supply is actually 350kW, then the charging efficiency is ~70%.
Race mode is 671hp or 500kW equal to 7.5 minutes at full throttle for 75% battery capacity. Even if regenerative braking allows you to recover 25% of the energy expended, you’re still at less than 10 minutes at full throttle. That makes the claim of being able to race for about half an hour completely bogus unless more than half the race is behind a pace car. Using 90% of battery capacity only helps a little.
DeWitt,
Like all things ‘green’, claims of electric race car performance are completely bogus.
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That said, there is some practical use for electric vehicals. My wife’s Honda is good for 35 MPG highway but she rarely needs to go more than 60 or 70 miles per day…. she could easily switch to an electric with a range of 120 miles on a charge. We have a 240V 7.2 KW AC port available next to the driveway.
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The issues are 1) the rare occasion she needs more range and 2) you can’t possibly recover the added cost for an electric car from fuel economy over the practical life of the car. That is in Florida with $0.12 per KWH. In states with much higher electric rates, (like the $0.24 per KWH I pay here in the peoples republic of Massachusetts) the potential for recovering the added cost for an electric is zero.
I have seen no posts here that are even remotely positive regarding vaccine mandates. I came up with three reasons, but there may be more:
1. There is nothing positive that can be said about vaccine mandates.
2. No one who reads this blog has any thoughts that are positive toward vaccine mandates.
3. Anyone who posts anything positive about vaccine mandates would be set upon by a pack of rabid dogs.
I vote for number 3.
Russell,
Lucia has already said she supports employer mandates. Even though I personally disagree, no rabid dogs appeared. I very much doubt you will find anyone who regularly comments on this site who thinks government mandated vaccinations (and masks, and multiple others) are a good idea, except perhaps you. I think they are plainly unconstitutional, but the opinion of the SC members is more important than mine.
Russell,
Vaccine mandates are reasonable for those for those whose work puts them in regular close contact with people who are vulnerable, such as in nursing homes, cancer patients, and transplant patients. They are also reasonable when people are going to be spending a long time in isolated close contact, an extreme case being people overwintering in Antarctica. But to be reasonable they must make an exception for those previously infected, as shown by a positive antibody test.
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They can also be reasonable in other cases when an employer can show valid cause, not just a desire to force employees to comply with a political stance. Such requirements should also make suitable accommodation for those with medical or religious reasons to refuse the vaccine.
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OTOH, blanket mandates are a clear violation of individual rights, as are mandates that are based in politics rather than science.
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In my experience, differing opinions are welcome here, at least when expressed in terms conducive to debate. But insulting people, as you did in comment #205777, is not welcome.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #205772): “That makes the claim of being able to race for about half an hour completely bogus”.
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More likely a best case scenario rather than bogus. Race cars are not typically operated at full throttle.
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I have seen about 3 miles per kWh for electric cars. If that corresponds to 20 MPG (I will return to this) for the same car with a conventional engine, we have 0.15 kWh per gallon. So 82 kWH (best case scenario) would be about 12.3 gallons.
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This says 6 MPG for F1 races, with an average speed of 150 MPH:
https://www.quora.com/What-MPG-does-an-F1-car-achieve?share=1
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So that gives a range of 75 miles or 30 minutes at 150 MPH. As claimed.
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So is the 20 MPG equivalent reasonable? It is much lower than for a street car that is otherwise similar to an electric car. But I think it plausible for a race car that is designed with a much higher premium on performance than fuel economy. With internal combustion, there is a strong tradeoff between performance and fuel economy. That is the main reason why hybrids get such good mileage; there is no performance requirement for the engine, so it can be optimized for efficiency. Also, race cars spend much more time braking than passenger cars.
Russell,
If you have something positive to say about vaccine mandates, go for it. I promise here in the sight of gods and men that I will set no rabid dogs on you no matter what you say, done in the light this day Sunday September Ninth in the year of our Lord 2021. None of my dogs are rabid and none of them are instruments I use when I disagree with people on blogs. Instead, I expect it will be sufficient for me to vigorously express my counter opinion and disagreement with the written word.
Aw crap. It’s the 12th..
mark,
Today is September 12.
Russell,
So, wasn’t it you who was making the argument earlier that DeSantis was being a dictator, and that problems should be taken care of at the lowest/ most local level of government? I get mixed up, as you can see above, so maybe I’m not remembering right.
If that WAS you, would you explain how that squares in your mind?
Russell,
You invite divisiveness when you attack the person, not the argument. You make no effort to defend your position, whatever that is. Instead you just attack the community. The response to that is pretty predictable.
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The vast majority of the people here got vaccinated voluntarily. There are split opinions on whether businesses should be able to mandate vaccines for their employees, and whether previous infections should be OK, or regular testing can be OK.
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I have stated multiple times I would never set foot on a cruise ship without a vaccine mandate and government vaccine mandates can definitely be justified under some circumstances (think smallpox, etc.).
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But there is a line where these mandates should not be forced by the government and people draw those lines differently. Where you draw your line is unknown.
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This mandate is questionable and the details matter. If the government funds regular testing to employees who want to opt out then I am OK with that. I also think proof of previous infection is a valid opt out.
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Additionally I believe a mandate of this magnitude should be done legislatively and not through administrative trickery of OSHA rules.
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I also believe in the right of people to be stupid if they so wish, as long as they aren’t hurting others in the process. Riding a motorcycle without a helmet isn’t very wise, check the statistics.
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The argument that the unvaccinated are a public health threat to others is weak in my opinion (see the UK and Israel). Large vaccinations rates are not going to stop delta and are not going to prevent covid from being endemic.
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But its a close call, I won’t cry very hard if it happens.
Mike M,
A gallon of non-ethanol gasoline has a heat of combustion of approximately 120,000 BTU. F1 engines have exceptionally good thermal efficiency, via energy recovery from braking and from energy recovered via the turbocharger. A typical thermal efficiency is about 40%, and some tests have reached as high as 45%. So from that 120,000 BTU, and assuming 45% thermal efficiency, about 54,000 BTU is turned in to drive power. This is equivalent to a net of 15.8 KWH of drive power from one gallon of gasoline. Since F1 cars get about 6 MPG, that means their power use (at the drive axel) is a bit over 2.63 KWH per mile traveled. If the average speed is 150 MPH, that means in 30 minutes the car would cover 75 miles and require 2.63*75 = 197.5 KWH. Even if the power recovery from braking is higher than the recovery from breaking in a normal F1 car, and even if we assume 100% electric motor efficiency, 85 KWH seems woefully short of the required capacity for 30 minutes of racing.
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I do not believe the claimed performance of the electric F1 car.
Tom Scharf,
“Additionally I believe a mandate of this magnitude should be done legislatively and not through administrative trickery of OSHA rules.”
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Yes, but that requires some consensus and compromise, and is not at all how progressives try to advance their agenda. A mandate for vaccinations would NEVER pass congress, never mind pass muster with the SC. The SC precedent of Sullivan, was misguided I think, but at least was for a much more serious illness (smallpox); justifying mandated injections is, IMO, a bridge way too far.
Vaccines that provide lifetime sterilizing immunity definitely change the calculation. It is unclear if this mandate goes into force how it would ever end. I would like to see an answer to that as well.
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The usual suspects would then want to jam a thousand other “for your own good according to experts” requirements through the same process. There needs to be some assurances that this could not happen. I really don’t want to be tested for excessive bacon ingestion every week.
Right on schedule. Covid may be hard to predict, but the usual suspects are not…
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“Reducing these threats starts with more aggressive efforts to get people vaccinated for flu and COVID alike. Work-related vaccination mandates for both diseases will become more common.”
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/endemic-covid-manageable-risk-dual-threat-influenza/620044/
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To be fair people are working on dual covid/flu vaccines in one shot.
SteveF (Comment #205788): “F1 engines have exceptionally good thermal efficiency, via energy recovery from braking and from energy recovered via the turbocharger. A typical thermal efficiency is about 40%, and some tests have reached as high as 45%.”
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I found 45% efficiency hard to believe, but it appears to be true:
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph240/jaques2/
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So it seems that the claims for the electric racer are indeed bogus.
Tom Scharf,
The slippery slope to Orwellian dystopia (AKA a socialist hellhole) always threatens freedom. Some people insist on having personal liberty, some insist that all personal liberty is conditional on progressive (leftist) approval. The flu vaccine hardly even works… there is zero justification0 for any kind of flu vaccine mandate.
Russel
My vote is your memory is clouded. I have said I support allowing employers requiring employees to be vaccinated. I have also said support requiring school teachers and health care workers to be vaccinated. I would think that’s at least “remotely positive” about vaccine mandates.
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I host this blog. So I think that leaves your notion that anyone who agrees with me would be set upon by a pack of rabid dogs!
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Other than showing us your memory is clouded, I’m not sure what the point of your comment was. If you have an argument in favor of vaccine mandates, put it forward.
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As noted: I’m for allowing employers to mandate vaccination and think k-12 school employees and health care workers should be vaccinated. I have also said I’m against the government requiring employers to require employees be vaccinated. I lean libertarian and I think that employers should largely be able to make employment policies. Some work places really likely need everyone or nearly everyone vaccinated. Others don’t. In many places it’s just not a worker safety issue.
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I have no idea if Biden’s OSHA rules mandating vaccines are going to hold up. I think they are unwise and unfairly burden private employers many of whom have other options they would find both preferable and effective. I also don’t think OSHA rules are an appropriate mechanism for public health programs. It’s supposed to be a worker safety rule. Lots of people have been working from home. It makes absolutely no sense to say they need to be vaccinated or constantly tested if the goal is work place safety.
Seems that Russell has nothing to say either in his own defense or in apology. I fear that the rabid dogs got him.
If I knew the vaccine was 98% effective and would work for a long time, I would support mandates similar to the way it works with measles and chickenpox.
JDOhio,
I am not aware of general mandates for chicken pox and measels. Can you explain?
SteveF,
Schools typically require vaccination for a bunch of diseases. It is normally a state law and, I think, applies to private as well as public schools. But in spite of that, quite a few kids are not vaccinated. The number has grown dramatically over the last year or so. I think that the reason is some combination of their being exemptions that are not so hard to get, not applying to home school kids, and maybe not being rigorously enforced.
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IMO, such requirements are only justified on the grounds of herd immunity and should be subject to strict scrutiny. So not applicable to influenza or the Wuhan virus.
Mike M.,
Cite please. In my experience that’s not true.
Many years ago I had an SCCA competition license and drove in a few races. I’ve also been involved with SCCA racing for over 50 years as a course marshall. Anytime you’re on a straight you’re at full throttle as soon as you can get the car straight. F1 cars can be at full throttle for up to 70% of a lap and they don’t have traction control other than the driver’s foot. At Daytona and Talledega speedway, NASCAR cars run at full throttle for 100% of the lap. Ten thousand horsepower top fuel and funny car dragsters operate at full throttle for the whole run. They rely on clutch slippage to keep the tires from spinning coming off the line.
From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-prices-in-europe-hit-records-after-wind-stops-blowing-11631528258?mod=hp_lead_pos12
But the greenies told us that the Texas power outage last winter was the result of incompetence, not frozen wind turbines and that wind and solar are cheap and reliable. The UK won’t have coal plants to turn back on after 2024. They couldn’t import nuclear power from France because the undersea cables were undergoing maintenance.
They’re just lucky this didn’t happen during the winter. But it probably will eventually.
An urgent plea from a grade school classmate [60 years ago!] of my wife. They maintain a loose network on Facebook. They are [mostly] in Cincinnati. The group just lost a guy to covid. The author is a retired US Airforce general and ringleader of the classmates.
“I attended a funeral yesterday for an old friend and classmate. He was truly a great, high energy guy with a zest for life. An athlete all his life, he was healthy and fit, going to the gym almost every day. Did not get the COVID vaccine. Caught the virus. Spent a couple of weeks in the hospital on a ventilator. Died.
If you have not done so, please get the damn vaccine now! Tell everyone you love to do the same.â€
My thoughts… This unvaccinated selfish butthead put innumerable people at risk: the people at the gym, his office, other 75 year-olds that he socialized with, his family and the brave medical staff who tried to save his life. He should have been publicly flogged.
I’m no racing expert but the simplified model is if you aren’t at either 100% throttle or 100% braking for the entire lap then you are likely losing. It is more complicated than that of course.
WSJ uncovers an effective secret tier Facebook uses that is exempt from their normal rules for powerful people. Big surprise.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-files-xcheck-zuckerberg-elite-rules-11631541353
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“Mr. Zuckerberg estimated in 2018 that Facebook gets 10% of its content removal decisions wrong, and, depending on the enforcement action taken, users might never be told what rule they violated or be given a chance to appeal.
Users designated for XCheck review, however, are treated more deferentially. Facebook designed the system to minimize what its employees have described in the documents as “PR firesâ€â€”negative media attention that comes from botched enforcement actions taken against VIPs.â€
“In addition, Facebook has asked fact-checking partners to retroactively change their findings on posts from high-profile accounts, waived standard punishments for propagating what it classifies as misinformation and even altered planned changes to its algorithms to avoid political fallout.â€
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Ironically my guess is most of the criticism is coming from the left because they want more censoring of outgroup accounts.
SteveF — Vaccine Mandates
Mike M answered your question. Both of my children had to be vaccinated with about 8 different vaccines to go to school. I am sure there are religious exemptions. I support mandating these types of vaccinations.
If there were similar types of situations with adults in close contact — for instance medical people or the military, I would support mandated vaccinations there also for proven effective vaccines with long term protection.
Russell,
The unvaccinated mostly appear to put other unvaccinated at risk. This after all is the point of getting vaccinated in the first place; that doing so dramatically reduces the risk of infection.
The man is dead. If you have no respect to show for his passing and for the sake of the loved ones he leaves behind, you could at least consider pretending to have good taste and remain silent.
Russell,
“Did not get the vaccine. Died.”
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You want punishment worse than death? Torture, flogging, etc? Seems like you would fit in very well in Saudi Arabia, where flogging people to death for crimes against sharia law is acceptable punishment. Along with public beheading, of course.
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Perhaps you could suggest Congress pass federal laws authorizing cruel and unusual punishment like flogging for people who refuse to be vaccinated…. even those who had and recovered from the virus and have demonstrably greater resistance to re-infection than the vaccinated.
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All those other people you are concerned about should have gotten vaccinated, and I expect nearly all of them did. They were not at significant risk unless they are immune compromised, in which case they ought not be in contact with many other people, vaccinated or not. The guy didn’t kill anyone other than himself.
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As best I can figure, about 90% of the over 65 population has been either fully vaccinated or is waiting for a second dose. Among the ~10% who refuse the vaccination, somewhere between 5% and 25% will die if they catch the virus, depending on age. I am sorry they will die, but not at all worried they will kill me. I am worried that irrational responses to the corona virus pandemic will permanently deminish personal liberty.
Russel
I think it’s sad he took this unnecessary risk and paid the high price of death. But I think your reaction is unwarranted.
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The people he put at risk were, like him, (a) unvaccinated, (b) going to the gym, (c) socializing. They are choosing risk. They– like he– clearly thought that not living like a cloistered monk was worth the risk. And, for some reason I don’t understand, they do not want to be vaccinated.
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Yes. It would be wiser for all those people to get vaccinated. But other people’s risk was not entirely your now dead friend’s fault. In fact it was not mostly his fault. It’s mostly their own.. I don’t see why your friend deserved a public flogging.
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I know you have strong feelings about this. But the fact is, you– and many your age– can largely manage their own risk. If you take this decision on yourself, no decision by those like your friend puts you or others who protect themselves at risk.
JD Ohio,
Children are not adults. Adults have agency, children do not. It is a different political and moral question.
Russell Klier (Comment #205813): “”This unvaccinated selfish butthead put innumerable people at risk: the people at the gym, his office, other 75 year-olds that he socialized with, his family and the brave medical staff who tried to save his life. He should have been publicly flogged.”
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You are a jerk. I only use that term since I am not sure what would put me in moderation. The Wuhan virus vaccine does not much protect others since it does not much prevent transmission. And others can protect themselves by getting vaccinated. So the only person he put at risk was himself. It cost him his life.
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But what makes you a jerk (minimally) is that you choose to spit on the corpse of a dead guy. Shame.
Russell,
Your position is strange to me in this — the unvaccinated are being punished for their choice. They are at greater risk of infection and death. Why then argue for mandates to spare them the consequences of their folly?
You would have them flogged for potentially carrying the scourge of coronavirus to other offenders, who presumably you would also like to see flogged for potentially spreading coronavirus. If this is your view, I don’t understand why you oppose just letting the virus take care of it.
Unless the issue isn’t really the pandemic at all.
Mike,
I feel the same way. I think there’s plenty enough malevolent stupidity in the world already. I wish Russell would spare us from sharing what he’d like to contribute to that.
Rabid dogs, flogging… Not looking forward to the next motif[].
16% of Florida has confirmed cases (3.4M / 21.5M)
55% of Florida is fully vaccinated (65% of adults, >90% of seniors). This is about the national avg. for vaccinations.
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If one uses a 3x multiplier for unreported cases that is about half of FL that has had covid. We should be approaching 90% of the adult population either infected or vaccinated at this point in FL. YMMV.
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I doubt vaccine mandates will matter much for FL at this point, but might for other areas. The unvaccinated should still go get a shot, especially if they are unsure if they haven’t gotten covid yet. One would suppose the unvaccinated likely already engage in riskier behavior so are more likely to have already been infected. No data to support this though.
Looks like Florida has has significant drop in new cases in the past month. They are well past the peak of this current “boom”. We can’t be sure it won’t recurr, but, likely it won’t. Lots of people are vaccinated now. Lots of people will get boosters.
Forida deaths may have peaked. If they haven’t yet, given the drop in cases, they will soon. It’s sad so many died– but we know it’s mostly the unvaccinated. And at this point, unvaccinated is voluntary.
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Illinois cases may be reaching a peak or plateau. Same for US cases overall. Fingers crossed.
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Apart from all the other things one could say about trying to use OSHA to force vaccinations: The timing of Biden’s OSHA requirement is so odd. It looks so much like waiting for the horse to escape before closing the barn door.
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I’m pretty sure I’ll get a booster at some point because this virus does mutate. So vis-a-vis vaccines, this will likely end up “like” the flu. (Is one allowed to say it’s like the flu in any way?) I think “big pharma” will help take care of this. Those of us who want protection will have it even as new variants emerge.
Lucia,
There was this (somewhat cheesy) movie back in the ’80’s called Dragonslayer. One of the odd things that stuck with me about the movie:
I think Biden’s people want Biden to be able to take credit later on for having beaten the pandemic. Wait for the dragon to fall out of the sky dead, show up, and drive a sword into its head. Victory, re-elect good king Biden!
Russell “ Spent a couple of weeks in the hospital on a ventilator. Died.â€
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Tattoo it on my forehead if I’m admitted into a hospital with covid “do NOT ventilate “
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Going under with a ventilator with covid is a leading cause of death.
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One of many reviews on COVID and ventilation
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https://thecommonsenseshow.com/conspiracy-economics-education/bombshell-plea-nyc-icu-doctor-covid-19-condition-oxygen-deprivation-not-pneumonia-ventilators-may
mark bofill,
Special effects by ILM that were nominated for an Academy Award and lost to Raiders of the Lost Ark (also by ILM) as well as a couple of other nominations doesn’t qualify as cheesy to me even a little. The old Doctor Who and man-in-rubber-suit Japanese monster movies define cheesy.
Tom Scharf,
The only reason you’re not 100% brake or throttle is that you have to turn. You should never be coasting. That’s where the concept of the traction circle comes in. The vector sum of lateral and linear acceleration should follow a vaguely circular shaped path defined by the maximum tire grip. That means as you start to turn, you roll off the brakes and then roll onto the throttle as you exit the corner. But even in the middle of a turn, you’re still applying some power to make up for the braking due to tire slip. In a turn taken at full throttle, you still slow down a little, or not accelerate as fast. A lot of that energy goes into the tire tread. That’s one of the reasons why dry weather race tires are slick and don’t have a lot of rubber even when new. Race tires have an optimum temperature and they lose grip when they’re too hot or too cold.
DeWitt,
Okay. I stand corrected. 🙂
Ed Forbes,
Note the date on that article you linked, April 5, 2020. That information was taken to heart and ventilators now are doing much less damage. That’s also part of the reason that NY and NJ had such a high death rate in early 2020.
I’d still like to see the statistics on patients who were on ventilators for more than about a week. My guess is that their one year survival rate is still pretty low. So I would say not no ventilator at all, but take it out if I’m not making substantial progress after 5-10 days.
The WSJ is preaching to my choir today.
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Covid Confusion at the CDC
Decisions on boosters relied on data from Israel. Why isn’t the U.S. producing this research?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-coronavirus-breakthrough-vaccine-natural-immunity-cdc-fauci-biden-failure-11631548306
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“The bigger question is: Why didn’t the CDC produce the (Israeli booster) research? The agency has 21,000 employees and a $15 billion annual budget. It has data on more than 40 million Americans who have tested positive for Covid and 200 million who have been vaccinated. The data include the vaccine type, dosing schedule and vaccination date. Calculating the rate of U.S. breakthrough infections and subsequent hospitalizations and deaths isn’t the Manhattan Project. It’s Epidemiology 101.”
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“Sound data from the CDC has been especially lacking on natural immunity from prior Covid infection. On Aug. 25, Israel published the most powerful and scientifically rigorous study on the subject to date. In a sample of more than 700,000 people, natural immunity was 27 times more effective than vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic infections.
Despite this evidence, U.S. public health officials continue to dismiss natural immunity, insisting that those who have recovered from Covid must still get the vaccine. Policy makers and public health leaders, and the media voices that parrot them, are inexplicably sticking to their original hypothesis that natural immunity is fleeting, even as at least 15 studies show it lasts.”
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FWIW the answer is probably that Israel has a national health database and patient privacy laws in the US make this type of data collection hard. Just because it might be hard isn’t a get out of jail free card for the CDC. Do the work. The CDC’s stature has dropped quite a bit in the pandemic. They funded a bunch of redundant studies on vaccine effectiveness. This is good stuff but there are other obvious questions that need answered here.
DeWitt Payne, yes, the danger with ventilation and covid has been known for some time now. It was much later than the date of the posted link that medical policy change on ventilation was generally made.
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I made the not unreasonable assumption that the death Russell commented on was recent. Which likely means ventilation was at the least one of the causes of death, not covid by itself. If he went under ventilation solely due to covid, ventilation, not covid was the likely sole cause of death.
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My trust in those responsible for medical policy has taken a major hit due to covid medical policy.
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The issues with covid and ventilation was found fairly quickly, but ventilation for covid was still policy for quite a bit of time after due to it being thought “easier on the staffâ€. Thousands unnecessary died due to the medical reliance on ventilation for covid.
I do believe Russell is just a liberal, life-long government employee who is trolling. No other explanation makes any sense. His statements are so outrageous they are almost unbelievable…. perfect for trolling..
SteveF,
I suspect Russell is just a frighted older person. For some reason, he wants to shift the burden on others. Liberals aren’t the only people who want to shift their burdens onto others. It’s just sometimes different ones.
I find many, though not all, older people tend to be very enthusiastic about dumping on younger ones.
Lucia,
“I find many, though not all, older people tend to be very enthusiastic about dumping on younger ones.”
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My experience is that this is (unfortunately) true. I am not sure if being elderly tends to make people more selfish and self-centered, or if they were always that way but were more careful about showing it when younger. Either way, I always find it shocking, but remarkably consistent over many years of observation.
Lucia,
I think you demonstrate unwarranted grace towards Russell. Not the first time I’ve thought something like this; actually one of the reasons I admire you and still hang out here. Although contrary to my natural inclinations maybe I’ll make an effort to [adopt a more] charitable [perspective]. I’ll try anyways.
Ed Forbes,
That’s something else for which I blame the HHS.
I posted on that being a clear violation of medical ethics in 2020 when I heard about it. “First do no harm” hah!
Tom Scharf,
“We should be approaching 90% of the adult population either infected or vaccinated at this point in FL. YMMV.”
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The only uncertainty is the 3X factor between confirmed cases and total infections. I have just not seen convincing evidence for this factor. I think it is plausible the factor is considerably lower, and that a significant portion of the population had some pre-existing resistance to the original (alpha) strain, but not the delta strain. This makes it easier for me to understand the large size of the delta-surge in Florida….. and elsewhere. The complete dominance of the delta strain among current cases in the USA indicates that the original strain simply could not efficiently infect a sizable fraction of the populace.
Steve F: “Children are not adults. Adults have agency, children do not. It [Vaccine mandates] is a different political and moral question.”
I reach the same conclusion in both instances. Very simply, in my mind when dealing with very effective vaccines and very dangerous and infectious diseases, the good outweighs the bad.
Legally (and courts can always be wrong, so I don’t care that much about court decisions when framing my own views.) the Supreme Court ruled in favor of vaccine mandates in the 1890s.
I leave reminders sometime to myself to revisit a take on a topic…
A couple of weeks ago, I was critical of a USA Today report which stated, “Florida reported an all-time death record, with 1,486 deaths in the past week – nearly 15% above the previous record of 1,296 deaths in a week of January.†USA Today used the difference in weekly reported cumulative death counts, while I believe that the better metric is to count by actual date of death, not reported date. [We know that reporting lag is not uniform.]
Of course, using date of death means that reliable numbers are not available until a few weeks later. Now, it’s a few weeks later: the latest Florida Dept. of Health report shows that this outbreak is indeed more deadly than prior ones. There are two weeks (so far) with over 2000 deaths, about 30% above the previous worst week of ~1550 deaths from last summer. [The USA Today article cited a Jan 2021 week as the “previous record” with 1296 deaths.]
I stand by my preference for reporting by date of death. The initial report of “15% higher” was an under-estimate, as one might expect from an increasing trend and a lagging metric. When the trend becomes decreasing — and one hopes that it already has — we will have over-estimates. I understand the desire for more timely metrics (and I don’t understand why the reporting delay is so long), but with current systems in place, accuracy and timeliness are not possible simultaneously.
As an aside, I note this USA Today article which speaks of social media posts mis-interpreting a day-to-day increase in total deaths reported, as the number of deaths which had occurred that day.
SteveF,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-blink-on-carried-interest-house-ways-and-means-tax-bill-11631569436?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
They did increase the holding period from 3 to 5 years, but all their wailing about how this was such a terrible loophole ends up with a whimper.
DeWitt,
No surprise there. Carried interest is far too important for political contributions to Democrats to ever eliminate. It is as blatant a sellout of taxpayers as exists, and eliminates most Federal taxes for extremely high income individuals, but Democrats will never do away with it. Prostitutes are far more honest about their profession than Democrats in Congress.
JDOhio,
“I reach the same conclusion in both instances.”
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I respectfully disagree.
HaroldW,
It does look like the Florida ‘delta surge’ peaked a week or so ago. Reported hospital and intensive care admissions are both below their peaks. Still, it makes sense for the unvaccinated, especially those over 45, to get vaccinated. The fall in cases will not be instantaneous, and plenty of unvaccinated people will remain at risk of severe illness or death in the coming months.
Ed wrote: “Going under with a ventilator with covid is a leading cause of death.”
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Seems to me that going to hospital with covid is a leading cause of death too!
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The issues DeWitt mentions aside, being put on a ventilator with covid means your lungs are really effed and noninvasive ventilation isn’t working. If your lungs aren’t effed, and the people monitoring and managing them aren’t morons, ventilators are unlikely to kill you.
DaveJR (Comment #205848): “ventilators are unlikely to kill you”.
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An extended time on a ventilator is very bad for your health. Positive pressure ventilation is damaging to the lungs and the sedation drugs have serious side effects.
Speaking of positive pressure ventilation, I saw in a comment at the WSJ site that the VA considers sleep apnea a disability. A veteran with sleep apnea who uses a CPAP is considered 50% disabled and is eligible for ~$1100/month for life. I don’t think a CPAP damages your lungs significantly. I wonder if someone in the hospital for COVID who is on a CPAP rather than being intubated is still considered to be on a ventilator.
Edit: The answer is maybe. A true ventilator forces air both into and out of the lungs, but an internet search gave mixed results.
The pre-COVID statistics I saw on ventilators was that the one year survival rate for extended ventilation was less than 10%.
Mike M wrote: “An extended time on a ventilator is very bad for your health.”
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Indeed it can be, which is why people are removed from them as soon as they are able to be removed, but people can and do survive on them for years because they cannot breath for themselves. For those with healthy lungs, aspiration of secretions around the tube and development of pneumonia is the largest risk. Positive pressure is perfectly tolerable. Overpressure, which is far more likely when your lungs are effed, is the problem. Increased pressure is a trade off between maintaining adequate ventilation, and causing more damage. Endotracheal tubes are short term solutions. Tracheostomies are used for longer term ventilation after around two weeks.
Finally, some data on hospitalization “with covid” vs “from covid”:
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-898254/v1
They used data from VA hospitals.
The 2:1 ratio from early this year roughly agrees with fragmentary data I had seen previously.
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Very interesting that the ratio has changed for the unvaccinated. Maybe due to admitting people with mild symptoms for treatment?
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If we take the “with” numbers for vaccinated (57%) and unvaccinated (45%) as being indicative of prevalence in the general population, then the numbers imply that vaccination only reduces the chance of severe illness by about 40%, if you get infected. That would be a lower bound if people with mild symptoms are being admitted for treatment.
CPAP and BIPAP are considered non-invasive ventilation. There are pressure limits because after around 20 mmHg, you start forcing air into the stomach.
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CPAP merely maintains a constant positive pressure which holds the lungs “open” between breaths, increasing oxygenation. For sleep apnea, it “splints” the upper airway open. BiPAP, acts more like a traditional ventilator, adding pressure when inhaling to aid breathing and CO2 expulsion.
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The idea that sleep apnea is a disability is a strange one unless it’s very severe. Usually it can be corrected and the person can go about their day as usual. However, I guess it would be a problem for active duty.
SteveF,
So the many studies that show that the number of people with seropositivity for COVID-19 antibodies is four to five times higher than the number of confirmed cases is not convincing evidence? I linked one from the CDC on another thread. In that study, the lower bound of the factor estimate was closer to four than three.
I’ve yet to see convincing evidence that cross immunity is a significant factor. Admittedly this is the argument from ignorance, but then so is yours.
Mike M.,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-study-in-england-shows-few-deaths-among-vaccinated-11631549453?mod=djem10point
Even if the true incidence of COVID was only ten percent of those numbers, extremely highly unlikely IMO, that still shows that vaccines are highly effective. Since this is the UK with a pretty high percent vaccinated, the actual incidence ratio is likely higher than 78:1 or >98%.
The juxtaposition of “vaccines are highly effective” with the desire to create more sensationalism and fear with the “breakthrough” narrative has created far more confusion and a hardening of opinion than was necessary, IMO. In addition, the rhetoric out of Israel, with stats showing great vaccine success while the state mouthpiece claims they show an impending disaster was ridiculous.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #205861), quoting the WSJ:
That is blatantly dishonest. Few people in the UK had received two shots prior to the spring (7.4% fully vaxed as of Apr 1). They had 74.2 cumulative deaths as of Jan. 1, 126.8 K as of May 1, and 128.2 K as of July 1. So 54.0 K in the first half of the year but only 1.4 K during the second quarter.
Did you hear the anecdotal report about the person who was vocally against vaccination who caught covid and died?
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I jest. Every single instance of this is blared from the media at volume 11. Surprisingly it appears from anecdotal reports that not a single person who was vocally for vaccines has died.
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The reporting of vaccine effectiveness is pretty solid I think (although overdone to fit the narrative). If >90% of the people in the ICU with covid are not vaccinated then this tells you something. There is a numerical floor of people in the ICU “with covid†instead of “because of covid†but it all depends on the relative ratio of vaccinated to determine whether that helps or hurts the end results.
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There are now numerous studies of this effectiveness against severe illness across multiple countries. I don’t think it is being manipulated, although like I said it is being stressed a bit too hard in the media. The CDC released 3 other studies this week stating much the same thing.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w
“The juxtaposition of “vaccines are highly effective†with the desire to create more sensationalism and fear with the “breakthrough†narrative has created far more confusion and a hardening of opinion than was necessary”
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Yes, completely agree. Fear sells, as does dumping on your out group.
The UK had done some studies on boosters, but not released the data. They did just announce that boosters will be given starting next week to “30 million people in the country to protect front-line health workers, those over 50 and any other medically vulnerable people”.
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One assumes the studies showed boosters were effective. They will be giving out half doses of Moderna.
DeWitt,
I have no doubt that there are many places where the ratio of total cases to confirmed cases reaches 4 to 5 times or more (Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and many other with obvious herd immunity and low vaccination rates). I also don’t doubt that in the early part of the pandemic there were many places in the States where similarly high ratios were accurate. I just doubt that in places like Florida there is any chance that such a high ratio is accurate. Multiply the number of confirmed cases in Florida by 5… then estimate how many who have not been infected have received vaccination. I just don’t believe the calculated unvaccinated population is great enough to explain the delta-surge in FL.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #205861)
Covid-19 Study in England Shows Few Deaths Among Vaccinated People. Survey finds 640 coronavirus deaths in the first half of 2021 among people who had received two shots and more than 50,000 among those who hadn’t.
Really need a lot more detail for this to be anything important.
The fact that the vaccinated group were increasing in size over this period and the unvaccinated group were decreasing [ not just due to the 50,000 associated deaths].
Makes comparison over any extended time period problematical and unsolvable.
Better to give weekly deaths per number vaccinated v deaths per number unvaccinated for a slightly fairer comparison.
If only 640 were vaccinated and they all died but 2,000,000 were unvaccinated and only 50,000 died I do not think I would want the ivermectin [ joking, I mean the vaccine].
What Mike M said.
Biden admin hasn’t produced any rules for OSHA, and their report had timelines instructing agencies to develop rules for the rest of his rules, but no mention of developing rules for the mandate on employers.
“I suspect Russell is just a frighted older person.”
Not just old folks getting frighted. I was at a PTA meeting, and one parent was complaining about kids playing outside without masks.
MikeN (Comment #205874): “Not just old folks getting frighted. I was at a PTA meeting, and one parent was complaining about kids playing outside without masks.”
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I guess that “age is just a number” works both ways. 🙂
MikeN,
Early on we had tons of neighborhood people on Nextdoor complaining about kids playing outside. They fretted that the saw “groups” of kids playing together in their backyards!
I was just like….. eyeroll!!!
I also heard some complaining about “teens” hanging around the… get this… playground.
One was even upset to see chalk on the sidewalk not because it was defacing but because it was evidence kids had been allowed to play outside where they might contact others!.
Fortunately, this did not extend to everyone in the neighborhood. (I was happy to see my neighbors kids playing in their back yards.)
There have been multiple studies (specifically in Israel is one I checked) that properly binned the death rates by vaccination status, time period, and age group. The ~90% risk reduction from vaccination holds up. It’s real. Usually the UK and Israel have the best data.
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I have no doubt that some of the quoted numbers in the media may have been tampered with by partisans or activists to maximize impact. Those numbers tend to be 99% and so forth. It is something that needs to be checked and can’t necessarily be trusted. You want the time period to be after a significant portion was vaccinated (binned by vaccinated/unvaccinated days), in an area and time where delta dominates, and binned by age group as the young still have way better results.
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Protection against severe illness is something they don’t need to manipulate yet to fit a narrative. It is noted that the media no longer even mentions protection against infection. Because this doesn’t fit the preferred narrative they just pretend it doesn’t exist (as with natural immunity).
Playgrounds are still closed in some places in Australia.
Tom Scharf
The Lancet anti-booster article totally discounts the lower protection against infection. Their ‘recommendations’ are based on simply assuming that “doesn’t matter”.
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Sorry: But I think not getting sick is a good reason to get a vaccine. It’s the reason for getting a shingles vaccine. I don’t know why that reason magically stops being a valid reason for a vaccine (or booster) when the disease is Covid.
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I am waiting for more info out of Israel. But the Lancet article makes me think the anti-booster argument is so weak as to be simply lame.
It will be interesting to see if Florida can sustain their drop in cases (~40% over the past two weeks). Unfortunately when you look at the UK and Israel the pattern is a drop from the peak but to then sustain relatively high transmission rates after that. FL’s death rates should likely go down significantly in the next few weeks.
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Russell should hopefully feel better about the situation in FL after this outbreak has receded. The best place you can be in the US is where delta was allowed to burn free and has finished for the time being.
Tom
Quite likely.
That Lancet article is very bad and shouldn’t be getting the media attention it is. The root reasoning appears to be that they want to use available vaccinations for poorer countries. Its a retread of the vaccine global equity argument. There is no new science in there at all, it is basically just an op-ed with a morality play.
Pfizer’s input today to the FDA supporting a booster shot:
https://www.fda.gov/media/152161/download
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“Finally, data from a recently initiated booster (third dose) vaccination program in the entire eligible population of Israel indicate that, in the face of waning immunity and in the period when the delta is the dominant variant, a booster dose of BNT162b2 has a reactogenicity profile similar to that seen after receipt of the second primary series dose and restores high levels of protection against COVID-19 outcomes (ie, back to approximately 95% protection).”
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See section 1.1 for details and the graph showing waning effectiveness. You have to do the math right for FDA submissions, they check it.
Tom Scharf (Comment #205880): “Unfortunately when you look at the UK and Israel the pattern is a drop from the peak but to then sustain relatively high transmission rates after that.”
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Cases in Israel appear to still be climbing, after a Rosh Hashanah dip. Now more than double the rate in the USA and quite a bit higher than they or we had last winter.
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Curiously, Israel is only a little over 60% fully vaccinated and 67% with at least one dose. Just a bit higher than the USA. I had no idea that they had so many redneck Trump voters!
There is another reporting artifact for Israel in the 7 day average on Google/NYT. Today’s spike will disappear tomorrow, but they are sustaining high rates of infection.
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I think people should report % eligible vaccinated, or % adults vaccinated. 78% of eligible people in Israel are vaccinated.
Tom Scharf
Because it’s in the Lancet. It’s at best blog post quality though. Not even a good blog post.
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I wrote my reaction in a post published just a bit ago.
I’ve got a general question I’m wondering if anyone has any thoughts on.
Back when Trump was President, a substantial majority were polled and found to believe the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Today under President Biden, people still seem to believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Is there something about polling this question, or human psychology in general, or some other factor that explains why people would believe the country is headed in the wrong direction regardless of which of the two major political parties is dominant?
[Edit: Maybe a better question – Why is this, when the governing styles or ideologies of the two people would seem to represent (taken in sum) the ideologies of a majority of voters?]
mark,
A year ago things sucked. They still suck.
I think the big problem is that so much seems to be beyond the control of the political process. So neither party can fix it.
I believe the Lancet is still around #2 in impact factor for medical journals and seems to make a habit of publishing utter dross, often for political ends.
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It can be credited with pushing the original antivax movement into the big leagues by publishing a truly shitty, poorly conceived, study, which I believe also contained no small amount of fakery, that claimed to show the MMR vaccine caused autism.
Thanks Mike.
mark –
I’m one who would have answered “wrong direction” in both polls. Mainly, because I favor smaller government, and that is not happening regardless of which party [Dem/Rep] is in power. I don’t see that changing any time soon, sadly.
As for your more general question — “Why is this, when the governing styles or ideologies of the two people would seem to represent (taken in sum) the ideologies of a majority of voters?” — I think it’s because few people line up well with the government, taken as a whole. If we place all political opinion on a 1-D line, the ones satisfied are those whose viewpoint aligns with that of the government to within a certain radius; people further left or right of that zone will both complain about the “wrong direction” but for different reasons. And a 1-D [left/right] characterization isn’t particularly appropriate, despite the fact that political opinion is often simplified in this manner.
Thank you Harold, that’s a thought provoking response. I think you’re on to something regarding the 1-D characterization not being appropriate.
HaroldW,
I agree, that is probably the issue. A majority will always think the direction is wrong, but who constitutes that majority changes. Same thing with feelings about the economy….. when Biden won, progressives became very optimistic about the economy, even while they had been pessimistic right up to the election. Conservative reaction to the election was exactly the opposite, of course….. they became much more pessimistic about the economy when Biden won.
Lucia: I was a medicinal chemist trying to make anti-infective drugs several decades ago. Ivermectin is a neurotoxin that immediately kills the parasitic worms that cause river blindness with a single dose. It does so by binding to an ion channel that is also found in the human brain, but the drug doesn’t cross the blood-brain barrier – assuming that barrier is intact. It is very safe administered once every 6 to 12 months.
Ivermectin also has some activity against the parasite that causes malaria, but a desperately needed safe and effective dosing regime for malaria had not been established when COVID appeared. Exploratory studies directed towards treating malaria provided limited information about the safety of higher doses.
Since ivermectin has some antiviral activity in cell culture against a variety of viruses, its target must be some host cell process that viruses need to replicate. This strongly suggests that the difference between an effective antiviral dose and a toxic dose is likely to be small. Since ivermectin is about two orders of magnitude less potent in cell culture than useful anti-virals, I suspect the doses being given to most patients are far too low to show useful anti-viral activity or toxicity. There are five large well-controlled clinical trials underway that could provide an answer. (With five opportunities of showing statistically significant activity “merely by chance”, a 1:4 split decision isn’t out of the question.
Finally, a safe and effective dose depends on who you intend to treat. if you are going to treatn hospitalized patients at risk of dying, efficacy may be a bigger concern that safety. Unfortunately, serious ill hospitalized patients benefit from immuno-suppressants, but not monoclonal antibodies; so the virus usually isn’t the key target by the time you are dying. If you want to treat diagnosed, but non-hospitalized, patients with little chance of dying, your drug needs to be much safer. And if you want to use ivermectin to prevent infection in otherwise-healthy people, your drug needs to have no liabilities. COVID has only killed about 1 in 500 Americans so far, and today vaccination provides significant protection. Some people are screaming about serious vaccine side effects in only a few per million.
FWIW, if I’m diagnosed with COVID despite vaccination, I intend to ask to be infused with monoclonal antibodies as an out-patient, rather than wait around to see if I need to be hospitalized. I’m not sure why this isn’t being done more often. Those antibodies last about a week, by which time I’ll be recovering, recovered or in the hospital. I’m not sure why Trump was so desperately ill so soon after diagnosis, nor exactly when and why he received the then-experimental antibodies, but he sure got well quickly. Unlike ivermectin, there is no doubt these antibodies have antiviral activity (but they may not be as active against every variant in circulation).
https://news.yahoo.com/patients-praise-regeneron-antibody-treatments-210100310.html
mark bofill asked: “Is there something about polling this question, or human psychology in general, or some other factor that explains why people would believe the country is headed in the wrong direction regardless of which of the two major political parties is dominant?
While parties may be campaigning for particular policies, these days they are campaigning mostly AGAINST the other party. Thanks to COVID, the Republicans didn’t even write a party platform in 2020. Biden gave the far left control of his party platform to ensure unity. The other party is the enemy, not fellow Americans with whom you need to compromise with to get something done. With so many gerrymandered House districts, working with the other party to get something done is likely to get you a primary challenger, but not help you get out your base in November.
With narrow margins and no help from the minority party, the majority party in Congress has to satisfy all of their special interests to get any bills passed. The filibuster in the Senate is causing legislative gridlock, so presidents are governing mostly by executive order. Disputes are settled in the courts by “Trump judges” or “Obama judges”; never impartial judges. The leaders of both parties needed to be investigated by the Justice Department.
One party has always played the race card to gain the support of minorities, but today a majority of whites also feel discriminated against.
Both parties are tearing down public confidence in key institutions: the government itself (the Deep State), the police, the FBI, the military, American exceptionalism, racial progress, and elections. One party is suppressing your vote; the other is stealing it.
In the current environment, a majority of Americans will think we are headed in the wrong direction no matter which party is in charge.
Thanks Frank. In a sense this is an encouraging idea, if a majority of voters view the political polarization as roughly equivalent to ‘the wrong direction’.
Frank (Comment #205902): “With narrow margins and no help from the minority party, the majority party in Congress has to satisfy all of their special interests to get any bills passed.”
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I do not think that is true. For instance, a whole bunch of Republicans voted for the “compromise” infrastructure bill, but the Dems still want to pass their extreme bill and are twisting the arms of the less extreme party members. Many such things have happened over the years, but usually not as blatant. Both parties are guilty.
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Extremism is NOT the result of polarization. Polarization is the result of extremism. Each party has its own internal reasons for taking intransigent and/or extreme positions. By doing so, they paint themselves into opposite corners and often preclude common ground.
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I don’t understand why it has happened. It seems that part of the problem is subservience to donors and activists, both of whom tend to represent the more extreme elements. But that has always been true, so I don’t know why it has gotten so bad.
Mike M,
“But that has always been true, so I don’t know why it has gotten so bad.”
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I suspect there are two important contributors. First, the internet (and social media) have enabled anonymous communication… allowing the worst possible emotions and tendencies to come to the fore. (eg ‘The unvaccinated should be flogged..’)
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Second, the MSM has fails to fairly and accurately report on issues of public interest. Rather than ‘honest brokers’, we have much-less-than-honest advocates for ‘progressive’ policies. One clear example is abortion: even though an overwhelming majority of voters support state restrictions on abortions somewhere between 3 months and 5 months gestational age, the MSM almost never honestly reports this, and instead suggests that any restriction on abortion is supported only by red-neck rubes in flyover states (who ‘cling to their guns and religion’); the MSM’s dishonesty on this and many other divisive issues is complete and willful.
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The change in the MSM from reporters to advocates for the left has driven people from the middle: those firmly on the right are (justifiably) horrified, and those on the dedicated left (justifiably) thrilled. But those in the middle, many not personally engaged in policy issues, have had to either believe the MSM reporting and support radical policies the MSM advocates, or look beyond the biased MSM coverage…. usually driving them to support the right.
A federal judge for the Southern District of Florida has thrown out a Federal suit filed by parents of disabled children asking for a restraining order on the DeSantis parental opt-out order for local mask mandates, ruling that the parents of disabled children must pursue ‘administrative claims’ prior to filing a Federal lawsuit. Administrative procedures will take months.
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This is the same group of parents who lost at the Florida appeals court some days ago. Their only remaining appeal is the 11th Circuit Court of appeals, which I suspect will ultimately rule in favor of DeSantis…. if they even agree to hear the case (this is Justice Clarence Thomas’s circuit). There there is a 7 to 5 conservative-liberal balance on the 11th.
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Justice Thomas could issue an injunction in favor of the parents (essentially taking the case out of the hands of the court of appeals), but that is about as likely as me qualifying for a spot in a professional golf tournament.
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The Biden administration says they will ‘investigate’ DeSantis for Federal civil rights violations, and vows to give money to school administrators who are not being paid by the State of Florida because they are defying the Department of Education. The first is fanciful (a district court already rejected the parent’s suit!), and the second seems a simple violation of law…. Congress has not set aside money to subvert the individual’s states ability to administer their laws and regulations.
BTW, I think the parental opt-out case in Florida is a tempest in a teapot, since virtually all kids are not at significant risk from covid. The fight is nearly 100% political, with the Biden administration unwilling to EVER let states issue regulations they disagree with; it is all about control. I suspect if the fight continues (and Biden does actually pay administrators to defy DeSantis), then the FL legislature will pass laws to remove those administrators from office… with the State police showing up to make sure it happens. I think it is all crazy, but crazy is the outcome when the left insists on control of everything.
The mask mandate is like immigration. Both sides think it is in their better political interest to fight and never compromise. Perhaps they are right in a narrow sense for their political future or party’s future, but in theory their interest is the nation’s or state’s future. Because they fundamentally have lost sight of this the finding that people think the country is going in the wrong direction is not surprising.
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It is noted that FL cases continue to decline sharply in spite of the immoral mask mandate ban. The conflict here is so detached from reality that this is rarely even mentioned. I’m not saying the ban has caused a decline but that it was never a big issue to begin with, and that those who suggested it was should be held accountable for the FUD.
Two of the 12 counties that were defying DeSantis’s parental mask opt-out rule have rescinded their no-opt-out mask policies in light of the appeals court ruling. Two or three other counties are apparently considering the same move. One other defiant county has back-tracked to only require masks with non-opt out under ‘certain circumstances’ or when a specific school has many cases.
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My prediction: the school boards in the smaller population counties will fall into line; the bigger population ones will continue to defy DeSantis, at least until they think the state police will come to remove them from their offices.
SteveF wrote of the “parental opt-out order”; Tom Scharf used the phrase “mask mandate ban”. Is this just framing, like “pro-life” vs. “anti-abortion”? Or is something deeper going on here?
It is framing. The executive order says that school boards have to allow a parental opt-out from mask mandates. The board can institute a mask mandate, just has to give parents an opt-out.
SteveF,
I think it is too simple to just blame “social media” or the corporate media. They sure don’t make things any better. But I suspect that media don’t create the pathology, they just reveal it. The corporate media are potentially a bigger problem because of their historic position as more-or-less honest brokers. But almost nobody trusts them any more. So I suspect they are also more symptom than cause.
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Both the internet and corporate media serve to amplify divisions. But as they do so, they alienate the middle, so their influence is self-limiting and mainly serves to make things appear worse than they are.
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But I suppose that might answer mark’s question. When the 20% who are vocal fanatics on one side are getting their way, then 80% of the populace is unhappy. And when the 20% on the other extreme are happy, then again 80% are unhappy. Sigh.
Mike M,
” When the 20% who are vocal fanatics on one side are getting their way, then 80% of the populace is unhappy. And when the 20% on the other extreme are happy, then again 80% are unhappy.”
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I would put the split at more like 35%/65% happy/unhappy, but yes, your point is well taken.
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The more vocal and most extreme almost always drive party politics….. as the tendency of ‘moderates’ to be targeted in primaries shows. There are some extreme cases like Liz Cheney, who actively oppose the policies their constituents support, and so ought to face a primary opponent. But most of the time it is absolute nut-cake know-nothings like Occasio-Cortez winning low turnout primaries to eliminate relative moderates in safe districts… districts where my daughter’s house cat (probably intellectually comparable to Occasio-Cortez!) could be elected to Congress if it had the correct party affiliation next to its name.
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For republicans, it is more often someone like Dave Brat eliminating Eric Cantor in a primary for a VA district that would *never* accept Brat’s pretty extreme views for very long (Brat lost the seat in 2018 after beating Cantor in 2014). Had Cantor not been primaried out of office in 2014, he would certainly still be in Congress, and indefinitely electable in the VA-7 district.
Yes, I am using a more inaccurate term. The parental opt out is the issue and it is commonly hidden by the usual suspects. The slightly more honest ones use the term universal mask mandate.
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Another symptom of how detached this issue has become is that I have never once seen the media inquire or report what the parental opt out rate was. If it was only 1% or so then I have no idea what this is all about. Actually I do, it’s about the culture war.
Tom this article claims ~17% of SEminole county student request mask opt outs
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/education/os-ne-seminole-schools-masks-opt-out-20210817-kxsvzkmjtjblrjiggejinqoxie-story.html
It’s paywalled. I’m going by the title.
This also has numbers. It’s generally more than 1% opt-out.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/education/2021/08/12/1-25-palm-beach-county-students-opt-out-wearing-masks/8107737002/
I suspect the numbers opting out would also grow over time.
Lucia,
Kids are likely to press their parents for relief from mandates. That is OK with me; between 3 and 18, kids have growing independence and agency. Of course, most don’t want wear masks, perfectly sensible.
Tom Scharf,
“Actually I do, it’s about the culture war.”
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I would go further: It is about who controls the behavior of individuals: those self-same individuals, or “the majority of voters”.
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The real question in conflict, starting a hundred years ago, has been if the US Constitution really means what it says, or if elected officials (with the aid of ‘living Constitution’ SC justices like Breyer, Sotomayor, etc) can simply ignore the many clear restrictions the US Constitution places on government, and allow the Constitution to become nothing but a historical reference, like a statue of Washington, devoid of any real meaning.
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It is only since Trump replaced Ginsberg with Barrett that the issue could be honestly addressed. Scalia tried his best, but with no help from mealy-mouth Roberts, never had the votes to make important Constitutional cases balance on that key question. Those votes are now on the court: Chevron ? toast. Roe? to be scaled back. All the Biden Administration’s over-reach? most blocked. Trump was a total jerk, but he listened to the Federalist Society on SC justices. He may not have accomplished much, but he did change the Judiciary. For that I applaud him.