June happenings: Jim and I will do our first Am-Am competition which will take place in Naperville. We will both dance Pro-Am too.
Now some of you might wonder? How many people compete Am-Am? Answer: Very few. Very few. I’d sort of expected that a local Am-Am couple our age, the McBrides, would compete. They are competing a lot. However, one of the couple’s goals is to win the WDSS and the DCT series “top student couple” awards for the year. These require accumulating points in competitions that participate in those series. To get the greatest bang for their bucks they are only entering competitions that participate in both series. The upcoming competition participates in WDSS but not DCT! So, no McBrides to compete against.
Jim and I will learn if we are contested approximately 48 hours before the event! If we aren’t…. well, you can come in 2nd out of 1. So…. we still might not win. (In case you are wondering: I think you can’t come in 3rd out of 2. )
Open thread. đ
Video of long lines of tractor trailers in Russia, waiting to be inspected to be sure they are not carrying Ukrainian drones.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1930233051214168303?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Russell — that’s part of the genius of the Ukrainian attack. Not only did it take out some of the strategic bombers that were plaguing them but it has induced all sorts of inefficiencies inside Russia. That’s going to have rolling effects and bog down their economy.
Derek,
Yes and Russian paranoia will take it to the extreme.
It’s not paranoia if they’re really out to get you.
Mike M.
I think you might be surprised at how many of us quasi-libs hate “lib-speak”
Tonight it was pregnant persons, and food insecurity.
At least the Palestinian UN rep calledit like it is. “They’re starving”
On the other hand, we don’t have grandchildren so have next to no exposure to what’s next.
So I asked Grok:
What is the legal authority for the President to use an autopen?
I got a long response, some highlights:
âThere is no specific statute or regulation that explicitly authorizes or prohibits the President of the United States from using an autopen to sign documents. The use of an autopen by the President falls into a gray area of executive practice, guided by tradition, practicality, and legal interpretation rather than a clear statutory mandate.â
âHistorically, Presidents have used autopens for routine or voluminous documents, such as letters, ceremonial documents, or certain low-level administrative actions, to manage the practical demands of the office.â
âA significant legal opinion on the use of autopens came from the Department of Justiceâs Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) in 2005, during the George W. Bush administration. The OLC issued a memorandum titled “Legal Effectiveness of a Presidential Directive, as Compared to an Executive Order” (May 16, 2005), which indirectly addressed the use of autopens. It concluded that a presidential signature, whether applied manually or mechanically (via autopen), is legally effective for most documents, provided the President intends for the document to have effect.â
Full response:
https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_af3e3b82-2ae5-4f37-aee8-42d227aade36
John Ferguson,
Perhaps your offspring are liberals?
https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-conservative-fertility-advantage
A recent “study” suggests that AI will cause human population to fall rapidly as people conclude their children will have no possibility of gainful employment, since AI will do everything…… like 100 million people remaining in 200 years. And, no, it wasn’t a joke.
But there is a lot of humor value in this study. Tom Bevan (RealClear Politics) noted that Mormons continue to have very high birth rates, so in a couple hundred years Salt Lake City should become the center of human existence. đ
SteveF
Do people think about their kids future “gainful employment”? I didn’t have kids. But honestly, their “gainful employment” was not a factor in any of my thinking.
SteveF
Son and daughter are liberals. Daughter on faculty in Canberra, but does not libspeak. Son has worked from home for last 30 years (re-writes/packages FDA pharmaceutical trial applications) so not enough lib-socializing to absorb the patois. We think most of his friends are never-trumpers but mostly lean right. Daughter can recognize a crackpot when she encounters one so no AOC for her.
Lucia,
“Do people think about their kids future âgainful employmentâ?”
I certainly worry about my kids and grandkids being able to support themselves; but that usually just requires that they make good choices. But their future employment was never a consideration in having children.
Like I said, that study has a lot of humor potential…. It is even stupider than the predictions of world wide famine and ‘billions dying from hunger’ made back in the 1970’s. Maybe not as obviously stupid as predictions like “the West side highway under water by 2020”, and “most land will become uninhabitable within a few decades”, but still very stupid. The fact that the people who make crazy predictions are so often taken seriously by media types is not a good reflection on the critical thinking capacity of media types. I mean, how can they seriously report predictions by people who are so obviously wacko?
what? no more comments on this item? a really benign proposed post?
Maybe I’m naive about this (too), but I really wonder if AI won’t prove to be a sort of platform which will enable a lot of people to do things they couldn’t have done before because of quicker research it enables.
Maybe we haven’t recognized the opportunities offered by this new tool. I was invoved with computers from 1979 but never recognized the impact the mouse, GUI, and web would have. in 1992, when we were Sun Microsytem VARs in Miami, a guy wanted us to get a T1 connection and open up as a dial-up ISP.
I didn’t do it, mostly because I didn’t think the market was there. But it was and I missed that part.
Doubtless someone has figured out where AI is going, but so far the news hasn’t reached the Economist even though they write dozens of very informative articles including the one on LL Model collapse – which describes drift in the quality of the information dispensed by models which soon come to believe the stuff they generate themselves – an erosion which suggests more work needs to be done on models that they may be better able to distinguish between information and BS.
SteveF
This makes sense to me. If I had kids, I would be trying to encourage them making good choices. They choices don’t have to be “perfect”– none are. But I’d want them to make decent choices that promote their ability to support themselves and avoid undue debt.
I’m sure tons of predictions will be made about the effects of AI. Maybe will be contradictory and mutually exclusive. Most will be wildly wrong; some will be more or less correct.
Luciaâs comment:
âIt is even stupider than the predictions of world wide famine and âbillions dying from hungerâ made back in the 1970âsâ
That was during my liberal period. The one I was enamored with back then was Limits to Growth, a 1972 report by the Club of Rome. The report, written by four MIT systems scientists, useing computer modeling to predict that the Earth’s carrying capacity will be exceeded within 100 years if current trends continue.
âIt used system dynamics modeling (via the World3 computer model) to explore the long-term consequences of exponential growth in population, industrial output, resource consumption, and pollution on a finite planet.â
âThe report warned that if trends in population growth, resource depletion, industrial production, food production, and pollution continued unchecked, humanity would face ecological and economic collapse within the 21st century.â
And, they are still saying it:
âThe authors revisited the model in 1992 (Beyond the Limits) and 2004 (Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update), noting that trends were largely tracking the BAU scenario, with delays in action exacerbating risks. Recent analyses, like a 2021 study by Gaya Herrington, suggest real-world data aligns closely with the reportâs warnings.â
Visit them here:
https://www.clubofrome.org/
quotes are from Grok.
john a ferguson wrote: “I think you might be surprised at how many of us quasi-libs hate lib-speak.”
Not at all. Most Democrats don’t use that language unless they are in a situation where they feel it is required. But most don’t speak out against it either, because that can get you cancelled. They also don’t care for the crazier Leftist policies, but few speak out against those policies and most seem to deny that they are actual issues. And they don’t let the nonsense affect how they vote. So they end up being useful idiots for the extremists.
SteveF wrote: “I mean, how can they seriously report predictions by people who are so obviously wacko?”
One should not underestimate the stupidity of reporters, especially when the wacko has “credentials”, like an advanced degree. But they might just report the wacky predictions because they make good clickbait.
john a ferguson wrote: “I really wonder if AI wonât prove to be a sort of platform which will enable a lot of people to do things they couldnât have done before because of quicker research it enables. ”
I think that much more likely than the predictions of catastrophe. AI is more simulated intelligence than actual intelligence and it does appear to be a way of getting computers to do things that would be too complex for traditional coding. But people will have to be in the loop for the foreseeable future.
Russell mentioned the Club of Rome prediction of catastrophe within a century. I think that was their most optimistic case. The base case was catastrophe in about 50 years; i.e, by now:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Limits_to_Growth_fig._49.png
Mike M,
Yup. And the madman Paul Ehrlich is unrepentant, in spite of every prediction he made during a long career being wrong: he still insists we are doomed (DOOMED!!!) because we refuse to repent. He is only one of many ‘highly educated’ people making crazy predictions; they should all be ignored.
With regard to AI: It can (but not always) save time in finding specific information you need. Unfortunately, there is no ‘BS’ filter, so you get mostly whatever the popular consensus may be, not necessarily the most accurate information. If an AI agent is shown to ‘hallucinate’ that may be the kiss of death, since you won’t be able to believe anything it tells you. If I were working in the field, I would be very worried that AI seems too often to “just make shit up”.
If you want a laugh, check out Johnathan Turley’s reporting on how AI deemed him guilty of sexual improprieties based on events that never happened.
âUnfortunately, there is no âBSâ filterâ
I have my own, finely honed, BS filter. I use information from any source relevant and apply my own BS filter to take out the BS.
Edit, I might add, I rarely need my BS filter for Grok.
Sorry. Link: https://jonathanturley.org/2024/12/16/ghosted-by-chatgpt-how-i-was-first-defamed-and-then-deleted-by-ai/
I like Lucia’s chances if they are the only ones competing.
WOOHOO!
9-0 SCOTUS ruling against âreverse discriminationâ.
Liberal justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote the opinion:
âBy establishing the same protections for every âindividualâ â without regard to that individualâs membership in a minority or majority group â Congress left no room for courts to impose special requirements on majority-group plaintiffs alone,â
The future according to the Jetsons is we have AI slave robots. At least George still had himself a job over at Spacely Sprockets.
One solution to 50% unemployment caused by AI is everyone works half as much and AI does the rest. Better? Worse?
John, your post:
âI think you might be surprised at how many of us quasi-libs hate âlib-speakâ
I am surprised because the Nut Job Liberals [NJLs] are on the soapbox with a megaphone. The calmer heads in your party need to wrestle the spotlight away from them.
Russell,
The district court ruling was insane in that case, holding the majority to the elevated standing. During the hearing the defense basically admitted it had no case there.
The woman who charged reverse discrimination didn’t have much evidence other than gay bosses hired gay people, demoted her, and replaced her position with another gay employee.
The district court held that wasn’t enough evidence by itself to prove discrimination, but then superfluously threw in a kind of made up standard that majorities must show background behavior that “group gay” was doing this as a practice to other people, not just her, or something like that. Duh.
Gay managers surrounding themselves with other gay employees is statistically unlikely in a world with no bias. Unless this is some sort of gay themed business or an area with a concentration of gay people. Whether that is enough by itself is a gray area.
Thomas
Me too.
I did win a championship at Indianapolis dancesport. Uncontested!!
Go here:
https://www.indianapolisopendancesport.com/pages/results/Default.asp
Enter my name.
See “Heat 775: Silver Grand Challenge Events Open S1 Amer. Smooth (W,T,F,VW)”
You’ll also see other uncontested events. Notice “Silver”. That’s a level designation. S1 is an age designation– it’s 61-70. (The others are “Bronze”, “Gold” and “Above Gold”. The latter is generally not offerred.)
I did win “Heat 767: Smooth 3-Dance Events Open Full Silver S1 (W,T,F)” It was close– I won Waltz and Tango but not fox trot. But notice, 4 judges preferred me in waltz, three preferred the other lady. So one flip in one judge and she would have beat me.
The Scholarships are generally contested because there is a money prize. Also: note in the one below: there is no level. So Bronze, Silver and Gold dancers will all enter.
“Heat 848: Open 4 & 5 Dance Scholarship Events S1 Amer. Smooth #NR (W,T,F,VW)”
I got third in that. I said “I made my goal!” when they called out the 4th place finisher. The woman standing next to me laughed. (She came in first and there was no way I was going to beat her!!) Vlad insists that 2nd was within reach… if I don’t screw up. LOL!
Singles are even more likely to be uncontested than multi-dance events.
(There would probably have been more competition at Windy City which we were going to do. But “things” got in the way of that, so we went to Indianapolis.)
Lucia,
Sort of like a golf tournament for “ultra-seniors” over age 80…. where so few compete that any one has a real chance of coming in first. đ
Hey, don’t forget about the mandatory land acknowledgement!
These need to be expanded for the all extinct species we have usurped for our greedy needs over the past billion years.
But seriously have you ever spoken out against any of this insanity or Dilbert level corporate nuttiness? You get a bunch of glares and eye rolls. Most everyone is choosing their battles more wisely. Except Trump.
The interesting thing about the SC ruling is that it was 9-0 and is a clear warning shot across the bow of so many organizations who have be actively using DEI for hiring and promotion.
The SCOTUS discrimination ruling was one of three welcome unanimous rulings. There was also one made in favor of a Catholic charity in Wisconsin and one that Mexico can not sue US gun manufacturers.
I think they show that the court is quite capable of rising above the real ideological and political divide on the court. Even if they do not always do so.
To be clear, what the SC correctly said is there is no special category of “reverse discrimination”, there is only discrimination and everyone follows the same set of rules.
Birds on the front lines weave their nests from spent fiber optic cables, I have seen pictures of fields that look like theyâre wrapped in silk threads from the fiber optic cables.
Image
https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/1930602393999147160?s=61
Tom, your post:
â everyone follows the same set of rules.â
That really undermines the Liberals whole approach to governance.
June 5, 1944, message from General Eisenhower to Soldiers, Sailors, and Airmen of the Allied Expeditionary Forces .
Image:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1930699089554907189?s=61
Is the wicked witch of Net Zero finally dead?
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/net-zero-is-a-net-loser-for-democrats
I hope so. But I fear it will take a few more years of wasted hundreds of billions before she is truly dead (it will only happen when politicians from outside socialist districts realize the madness must end to save themselves). The real tragedy: the same astronomical expenditures could have built a couple hundred large nuclear plants, reduced CO2 emissions far more, and produced electricity reliably, with no grid destabilization. Another more distant tragedy: Europeans have painted themselves into a corner on renewables that will be difficult to get out of, and this will styme economic growth in Europe for decades. $0.60 per KwHr makes industry non-competitive.
Another electric vehicle ship on fire and abandoned off the coast of Alaska:
Managers Zodiac Maritime said that smoke was detected onboard the Liberian-flagged, 2006-built, Pure Car and Truck Carrier (PCTC), Morning Midas 00:00 hrs UTC on 3 June in the Pacific Ocean. The USCG Alaska Division said it received a distress call at around 3:15 pm on 3 June reporting a fire on the vessel.
The Morning Midas was carrying 3,000 vehicles of which around 800 were electric and Zodiac and smoke was first seen emanating from a deck carrying electric vehicles.
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/accidents/crew-evacuated-from-zodiac-car-carrier-after-electric-vehicle-fire
Trump and Musk are having it out according to Townhall and other places.
And me without my popcorn.
Musk better not end up being black bagged by ICE and set to a supermax prison in Ecuador. Just saying.
mark bofill,
A quick read does not even begin to explain what the fight is about. The only thing I really understood was Trump’s refusal to appoint Musk’s preferred candidate to run NASA. Everything else seems like fighting over nothing of substance.
I think Musk doesn’t have to worry about abduction.
That said, as a private citizen Musk has every right to complain about political decisions he doesn’t like. Most people will (and I think should) pretty much ignore Musk on political issues. He should get his Starship rocket right, much better use of his time and energy.
Steve,
Welp, it could be EV subsidies. It could be the BBB. It could be lots of things. Tesla’s stock has taken a substantial hit. The Babylon Bee suggests that the two billionaires still love each other, but they’ve just grown apart (LOL!) and will have to split up custody of the nation.
Elon’s talking about forming his own party. The Martian Independence Group, perhaps? I don’t know.
I agree with you. Elon’s not built for politics. AFAICT, the BBB is the best that we could do under the circumstances. Politics are like that. Engineering not so much.
mark bofill,
OK, that helps. IMO, EV subsidies are nothing but welfare for the well-off…. crazy. If that is Musk’s main issue, then he needs to re-think it. The BBB is a frickin’ monstrosity, but a monstrosity is about all the divided Congress can possibly pass. The alternative: huge (automatic) tax increase and continued insane green spending dictated by Democrats who controlled Congress three years ago. Republicans need ask themselves which is more of a monstrosity, BBB or the alternative from 3 years ago? I hope they don’t go with the tax increases and crazy green spending.
Tesla is down 20+% in three days. Musk needs to step back from politics, right now. He is a technical visionary, not a politician. Don’t be stupid Elon.
mark bofill wrote: ” AFAICT, the BBB is the best that we could do under the circumstances.”
Sad but true. Or at least a reasonable approximation of the best we could do.
Never saw this bromance coming to an end, not!
As I have said before most people who enter Trump’s orbit exit worse off for the experience. This hilarious bickering is bad for both of them.
Musk should have never entered politics. He seems to be going crazy. A tragedy.
We’re not being played?
I think I’m asking a rhetorical question in that it can’t be definitively answered, but if there’s a way to definitively answer it that I haven’t noticed, do correct me!
mark,
Yeah, I was wondering about that. Musk’s behavior seem too over the top to be real. Maybe he and Trump are just establishing that neither controls the other and that Musk is not realizing any personal gain out of his time at DOGE.
Thanks Mike.
It’s hard to know, because billionaires probably are weird people anyway. Both Trump and Musk are plausibly weird in the first place by virtue of their wealth and unique circumstances.
This said, the whole kerfuffle is pretty darn strange.
Maybe time will tell us more.
The Trump-Musk spat distracts from the more important things: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/meet-trumps-deregulators-energy-oil-gas-alaska-6986c82c?st=JXKJ65
By the time Trump leaves office, there will be a huge reduction in regulatory costs, and a huge increase in petroleum and natural gas production. Those reductions in regulatory costs will return as tax receipts with increased economic growth and higher operating margins for businesses of all kinds.
Unfortunately, the increase in economic growth will be delayed…. takes time to change the direction of a huge economy…… so deregulation may not help Republicans in 2026 and 2028 as much as it could.
Iâm looking for suggestionsâŚ..
My granddaughters ages 12 and 15 come to visit and we watch a classic movie and have popcorn.
Weâve watched dramas, like Casablanca and African Queen, but their favorites have been musicals like an American in Paris and their ultimate favorite was the musical comedy Singing in the Rain.
Any suggestions?
Of course our matinees have popcornâŚ. Bobâs red barn made on the stove top.
edit, one of them suggested Grease, so that is on the docket.
Charlie Kirk lists 50 wins from the BB Bill:
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1930402626090479622
Lots of good stuff, but I’d like more detail on a number of items. Then he says “And this is just a taste.”
One thing that disappointed me:
“7. Deporting 1 million illegal immigrants per year”
That is not enough! It would take two years just to get rid of those who are criminals and/or already have final orders of removal.
Russell,
If they have never seen a silent movie, “The General” with Buster Keaton is great. The slapstick comedy had my kids laughing out loud.
Something a little more modern would be “Some Like it Hot”, altho the St. Valentines day massacre and the Cary Grant impersonation would most likely fly over their head.
Thanks DeanP.
The General is a great idea. Thatâs hilarious.
The Trump effectâŚ..
There have been many fewer USAF aircraft in the air over Europe and most particularly the Middle East in the past few weeks. This morning, there are no US aircraft flying in the Middle East and only four over Europe.
Image:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1930978774192947320?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
ISW, Today;
â Russian forces are reportedly sustaining an average of 1,140 casualties per day and suffering disproportionately high personnel casualties for marginal, grinding territorial gains.â
More:
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1930789403133120607?s=61
Catholic Charities case ROCKS!!
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/hear-hear-sotomayor-and-jackson-7c8ae0d0
Catholic Charities does what the religious teachings of the church encourage followers to do: good works for those in need. So far: sounds religious
Now for WI Supremems.
As an agnostic/atheist who grew up Catholic. Uhmmm! Umhh!!!!
They have just defined actual long standing Roman Catholic religious teachings as not religious! You think the six, count them six Roman Catholics on SCOTUS need an amicus curiae to point out this is a long standing religious teaching?!!!. It’s religious!!!
I don’t know if she’s a practicing Catholic. But yeah… paradigmatic.
And everyone would have to put blinders on history to not know this is a religious view! And the ones who grew up Catholic would also need to forget every CCD class they ever ever took. (And btw. Gorsuch grew up catholic. So that’s 7 out of 9 justices who can’t possibly know Catholic Charities is just following religious practice that predates the founding of the US!!!)
Precisely like.
That said: tons of religions preach that you should provide charity to all regardless of religious views. Some encourage proselytizing while you do it; others say to avoid it. In either case, the view on this is religious.
I mean… the worst thing about WI interpretation is not merely that they were violating the 1st amendment, but they were favoring bad selfish religions!!! Oy!!
Russel,
Have they seen Oklahoma? Or South Pacific?
I never did buy into the “Limits for Growth” thesis but perhaps that’s because I read Pournelle’s columns in BYTE and then his non-fiction “A Step Farther Out” collections first. As Jerry said, “it’s raining soup out there.”
I do take seriously the problems of population size and concentration placing unsustainable burdens on the surrounding environment and eco-system but that is very different from the postulations of climate crisis hysteria. I find it comical AND offensive to be told “believe the science” by people who don’t seem like they could pass high school physics. Many people these days don’t seem to be able to make a distinction between separable and inseparable variables or follow transitive logic.
Enjoy the competition Lucia! It seems to me that dancing is like golf — the real competition is with yourself (the participant).
Russell —
Since your granddaughters have a preference for musicals, I would suggest a line-up of Rodgers & Hammerstein and Lerner & Loewe: “The Sound of Music”, “Oklahoma!”, “My Fair Lady”, “Camelot”, etc. I would add “Oliver!” to that mix as well.
In the comedy vein, “Arsenic & Old Lace”, “Bringing Up Baby”, “The Philadelphia Story”, and “The Quiet Man” are favorites.
On the more serious side, “Goodbye, Mr. Chips” (both 1939 and 1969 versions), “To Sir, With Love”, “Raisins in the Sun”, “The Spirit of St. Louis”, and “The Long Gray Line” are excellent.
Some older war movies: “The Gallant Hours”, “Sands of Iwo Jima”, “The Great Escape”, “Twelve O’Clock High”, “Command Decision”, and “Battle of Britain”. “The Longest Day” isn’t 60 years old yet but was shot in B&W so very dramatic.
In Westerns, I would recommend “McLintock!”for the comedy, “The Searchers” for serious drama, “The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance”, and of course the John Ford cavalry trio.
Basically, anything listed with Turner Classic Movies is an excellent choice. I used to like American Movie Classics 30 years ago but their definition of what was a “classic” got weird about 10-15 years ago.
Derek and Lucia thanks, Iâm making a list.
Lucia, re Catholic Charities,
I am angered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court was using a noble gesture by the Catholic charity, to administer alms to everyone and forgo any religious preaching at them, to deny tax free status.
This was the premise that they were using to deny the tax free status. It is one of the best features of the whole program.
I think they were just anti-Catholic or maybe anti-religious and they used this clause as an excuse to get at them.
Lucia,
I suspect the 6 on the Court who grew up as Catholics were a little put off by the Wisconsin SC description of what it means to follow Catholic teaching about charity. That description flies in the face of any plausible Christian (or Jewish!) teaching about charity. The 9-0 outcome is very easy to understand in this case.
Just goes to show the Wisconsin SC is controlled by leftist knuckleheads.
I do wonder if the WI courts were setting things up to completely eliminate religious charities altogether. The ruling was so ludicrous on the face of it, there had to be a motive to rule this way:
‘If you don’t preach or limit your charity to members, you’re not religious’…
‘If you do preach and limit your charity to members only, you’re discriminatory’
Damned if you do, Damned if you don’t. ‘The only way to win is to not play the game’ and poof – all religious charities have to dissolve…
“We will pay for spending increases with future economic growth” is not to be trusted. It may or may not be true in any particular case but it is more or less Harry Potter casting a magic budgeting spell IMO.
I imagine one of the reasons Musk has his panties in a wad is because he spent so much time and effort rooting out federal spending waste only to have Congress light it on fire with their usual spending largesse. If he had found 5X more savings Congress would have just spent more.
Improved efficiency is still good but kind of misses the point.
Tom Scharf,
Eactly. Musk (paraphrase):
“why did i spend all this time and energy just so you could go and piss away the savings then spend more to boot?”
My question is where has he been that he didn’t expect this?
Second The Sound of Music and definitely My Fair Lady. The original Mary Poppins is also excellent.
I also routinely rewatch Rear Window which is a bit more serious but one of Hitchcock’s best in my view.
They probably aren’t ready for The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly!
Usually to qualify for federal funding you need to not be proselytizing religious in nature (see religious adoption agencies being forced to recommend gay parents, etc.).
There is an anti-religious sect in the legacy media and progressive circles that is tiresome. They will talk about abusive priests 24/7 but never mention endless missionary work religions do both internationally and locally. You don’t have to be religious yourself to see the value added they do for other people.
If The Lord makes you happy, then by all means do The Lord.
So what are these spending increases in the BB Bill? I am seeing a claim of $1.6 trillion in cuts, over 10 years of course.
For increases, I am seeing border security, military pay raises, and the missile defense system. The first is probably the biggest and is fulfilling a key promise that Trump made.
I would probably have gone lighter on the tax cuts, but they do partly pay for themselves.
What am I missing?
Thanks Tom,
I had forgotten about Hitchcock as a possibility.
John Ferguson,
“My question is where has he been that he didnât expect this?”
I suspect it is because he is not a politician, and he imagines you can just identify a problem and then get it resolved. When it comes to government largesse and tax rates, nothing could be further from the truth.
Musk is clearly horrified that the Federal Government is headed off a fiscal cliff; he doesn’t understand that the vast majority of politicians are far more interested in their next election (or the threat of a primary challenge if they vote the ‘wrong’ way), not a fiscal catastrophe that happens after they are long gone. We get what we vote for.
Here is the thing: I would be happy to support ending the Trump tax cuts (in spite of the tens of thousands it would cost me) if there were an iron-clad agreement to make comparable cuts in entitlement spending and eliminating all the crazy wasteful stuff. But you need a credible counterparty, willing to compromise on substance, and that credible counterparty doesn’t exist.
Mike M,
Democrats consider continuing the existing tax rates to be added “spending” on the rich, and reducing taxes in any way, (for anyone!) to be an added “expenditure” (actually sometimes called a “tax expenditure”).
IOW, all of everyone’s earnings belong to the Federal government, and they “spend” some if it to allow people to have part of it.
Upside down logic, of course, but that is the thinking.
I want to see long term cuts to the annual deficit, duh.
I understand during actual emergencies we need to increase spending (e.g. covid year one and two, military engagements that are not wars of choice, etc.) but we are supposed to not keep the spending going.
It’s simply undisciplined and unserious.
Tom Scharf,
“Itâs simply undisciplined and unserious.”
I would just describe it as seriously undisciplined, like a badly behaved 5 year old. đ
Russell,
Once you start going to Hitchcockian films, add “The Man Who Knew Too Much”, “Vertigo”, and “To Catch a Thief”.
Bonus if you make “Vertigo” a double feature with “High Anxiety”.
Russell –
I seond all the suggestions, and you probably have about a month’s worth of dawn-to-dusk watching already on your list. But I’d like to add one more musical to the many worthies already proposed – The Bandwagon. It’s not as high on my list as “Singin’ in the Rain”, “An American in Paris”, or “Showboat” (to name a few), but I liked it, especially the caricature of the blowhard director. Those are the ones I think about from the 50s.
I’m surprised that nobody has mentioned “West Side Story” or “The Wizard of Oz.”
And a non-musical: “Ninotchka”. Perhaps not as funny now as it was in the Soviet era — I haven’t seen it in perhaps 40 years now.
HaroldW,
I bought The Wizard of Oz a couple of years ago…… no matter the generation, it is still funny and magical, especially the Munchkin land scene; ” ……. meet the young lady who fell from a star.”
I would not recommend West Side Story for anyone less than 15 YO. Too violent for younger people.
Well yeah, The Wizard of Oz, that’s like another level. We watched that every year when I was a kid, like on tube TV’s!
I’m biased though, I’ve had about 5 Cairn Terriers as pets, so there is that.
I also have fond memories of Willie Wonka (the original of course … never remake a classic).
Thanks Derek and HaroldâŚ. so many great old films. Itâs sad what Hollywood has become.
On the Wizard of Oz, We watched that last year with my wife. The girls also saw the new version at the movie theater.
Russell,
“Where’s Charlie” Ray Bolger singing “once in Love with Amy, always in love with Amy” while doing this incredible dance.
It may not work with the kid’s cohort, but whistling “Once in love with Amy” while standing in line at a theater is an effective way to meet interesting people. Once, in Chicago, we were able to assemble a chorus singing first this song, and then some others, while wating to get into the Clark Theater.
Another time, it was “nice work if you can get it” this time waiting in line at a barbecue joint. I got to sing scat (didn’t know the words well enough) to solo and bass by two other customers.
There were a few tears of delight that this happening was even possible. Maybe it won’t be ten years from now.
Derek, Russel,
I second The Man Who Knew Too Much– Stewart and Doris Day. The scene where Day sings Que Sera Sera, the kid whistles and Stewart goes to get the kid. AWESOME GREAT. And no one overt conversation. Just faces.
Harold
The Music Man is better. đ
Lucia,
The âman who knew too muchâ went to the top of the list.
Thanks John
Tom Scharf,
I watched Willy Wonka with my first wife’s (much) younger brother, when he was maybe 9 or 10, and the movie first came out. I rented it for my grandkids this year. I was not nearly as impressed as in 1971, save for the “I want it NOW!” musical number, which is so perfect a description of ‘progressives’ that it will remain forever ageless.
Lucia,
“The Music Man is better.”
Musically? For sure.
Magically? Not so much.
Tom,
I am a big Gene Wilder fan and I thought he was great in Willy Wonka, though maybe not his best work.
I also was a fan of his wife, Gilda Radner.
The “Maryland dad” is back in the US after being indicted for trafficking thousands of humans. So now the government is going to have to spend a huge amount of money just to convict the guy and then deport him.
This done not mean that the Dems were right when they claimed that there was no barrier to bringing him back. The barrier is the huge expense of a pointless investigation and trial.
I had just assumed the granddaughters had already seen more contemporary classics like “The Wizard of Oz” and “Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory”. I re-watch the latter one roughly every other year.
Another semi-musical kid’s movie that isn’t as well known nowadays would be the Rex Harrison rendition of “Doctor Doolittle”; much better IMO than Eddie Murphy’s or RDJ’s ventures. Of course if you’re going that route, there’s “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” — written by Roald Dahl with music from the Sherman Brothers (of Disney fame) but Russell’s grandaughters are old enough they may not appreciate (or want to be seen appreciating) such obvious kids’ fare.
As a thriller, also check out “Gaslight” so they can see where the term originated from and “Cyrano de Bergerac”. The Gerard Depardieu turn is probably more authentic but Jose Ferrer was delightful in the original film and I thought the translation they used (Brian Hooker) was more lyrical.
second “music man”
I played in pit band for Damn Yankees. Great french horn part and terrific songs. Down in the Valley, Kurt Weil, but maybe not available on DVD.
Lucia,
Good luck to you and Jim at the competition!
I was introduced to great movies in the 70s when a Boston station played classic movies on Sunday nights(?). In the 80s, the new VCR technology allowed me to record movies when they aired on TV, although videotapes were quite expensive at first. One had a choice between taping at high inches-per-second (best quality) where a tape could accommodate only one movie, or at slow speed when one could squeeze three movies on the same tape at lower video quality.
All of that was before movie channels on cable, then Blockbuster and Netflix’s red envelopes, and now streaming. Quite a technological evolution, and how easy it is to access these classics now.
I was surprised (and thankful) at how many old movie enthusiasts there are here. I didnât think this was much of a movie crowd.
Lucia,
Is âBreak a Legâ an appropriate encouragement for dancers?
Christiane Amanpour: âI was afraid. Iâm a foreignerâŚI literally prepared to go to America as if I was going to North Korea.â
My response was⌠âStay away then. We have an ample domestic supply of Left Wing pseudo journalists.â
RealClearPolitics has an interesting article today for those of us who are pre-determined to believe this anyway:
âThe FBI specifically identified traditional Catholics as potential domestic terror threats.â
It was covered up by Director Wray lying to Congress.
Full story:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/06/07/biden_weaponized_law_enforcement_against_catholics_152892.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
âA running list of assets and units deployed to support Joint Task Force – Southern Border. âAs of today there are nearly 10,000 troops assigned to JTF-SB.â
The JTF includes USN blue water assets.
https://x.com/theintelfrog/status/1904150533633429938?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
American Catholics terrorists? Surely this is a fake story.
John,
âNow we know that, in fact, FBI agents did approach a priest and a choir director to ask them to inform on parishioners.â Despite this serious allegation, Wray denied a wider FBI initiative and blamed a localized mistake in Richmond.â
âthe FBIâs anti-Catholic Richmond memo was distributed to more than 1,000 employees in FBI field offices across the country.â
Wray lied to Congress to cover it up.
Maybe if I went ahead and bought some rosary beads that’d be a first step to help motivate me to buy that AR-15 I’ve always thought I ought to have but haven’t gotten around to purchasing yet.
Russel,
Good luck is fine!! We are going to practice today. . . Jim is extremely into practice. I am going to wear my “real” shoes. (High heeled dance ‘slippers’, not practice shoes.
Well, Good Luck!
Mark,
I need to figure out how to weapon organize my rosary beads. Maybe restring them with piano wire?
We’re a sorry couple of Catholic terrorists Russell. Heck, I’m not even sure I’m Catholic.
[Edit: Hmm. I was baptized Catholic and I have not explicitly renounced the faith. I haven’t been excommunicated either. According to the Internet, I’m still Catholic.]
Mark,
our own version of Band of Brothers
(I just noticed my unintended pun)
mark bofill
According to practicing Catholics you are still Catholic. According to fallen away Catholics? Most would say they are not.
I don’t argue with my practicing Catholic mother about this. After all: it doesn’t really matter to me what practicing Catholics think about my status as a Catholic.
Thanks Lucia. Probably it no longer matters what the DOJ thinks of my status either. Hopefully anyways.
I am also officially in the band of Catholic terror as well, I even went to mass a few times recently with all the other alleged Proud Boys. I wondered why that black SUV has been parked out in front of my house all month long.
These are probably the least worrisome people on the planet IMO, at least in modern times. I’m sure there are some radicals in the billion followers but it isn’t the Catholic doctrine feeding it.
Well, this is a first, but itâs still unconfirmed.
A Ukrainian F-16 shut down a Russian SU-35 fighter jet while it was still in Russian airspace. Up till now the Ukrainian F-16s have only shut down drones and cruise missiles.
I had been wondering if perhaps NATO would supply longer range air to air missiles for the F-16s. Perhaps they have.
Image of the downed plane:
https://x.com/avivector/status/1931293461921120297?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Edit, I find it interesting that secondhand, last generation US fighter jets can beat the best fighter jet, Russia has.
A lot of variables, who knows hat happened. Short, medium, or long range. IR or radar guided missiles. Ground or air based. The Russian pilot may have made an error. The plane could have just crashed. Could have been a lucky long range shot. NATO may have supplied a more advanced missile for testing. The Russians should be able to see an F-16 but it’s possible their air defenses were down, were attacked, or malfunctioned. My guess is a pilot making a stupid error in support of ground forces?
Air to air combat isn’t about a bunch of Red Barons dueling head to head in dog fights. It is about layered defenses, missile capabilities, systematic elimination of air defenses, electronic warfare and countermeasures, and strike packages.
I don’t think lone wolfs on either side would have a high survivability rate.
The US with it’s increasing cost of aircraft and munitions will probably be allergic to risk and only use them strategically across the front line. You can get 100,000 Ukrainian drones for the cost of an F-35, of course the drones have very short range and very limited boom power. An F-35 can drop a ginormous bunker buster into a Hamas leader’s tunnel. They all have their place.
Here’s a breakdown of a strike on Baghdad in 1991 FYI:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Package_Q_Strike
2 F-16’s were lost and there were a lot of execution problems that weren’t exactly advertised at the time.
Thanks Brother Tom
Tom, your comment:
âThese are probably the least worrisome people on the planet IMO, at least in modern timesâ
You and I may be benevolent, but I not sure about Brother Mark. Maybe we should report him.
I may become a vibe coder⌠The Free Press:
âThe most basic definition of a vibe coder is someone who doesnât know how to write code using traditional computing languages, like C++ or Python, but instead uses new artificial intelligence tools to write code for them.â
âAt Tech Week, a new kind of programmer is everywhere: people who donât know how to codeâbut use AI to do it for them. âYou use AI, and it makes all these files that look really nice, but you have no clue how it works.â
https://www.thefp.com/p/suzy-weiss-its-tech-week?utm_medium=organic-social&utm_source=twitter
Russell,
So I used to joke that the only thing I actually knew how to write without using any references was ‘hello world’. This isn’t precisely true, but it’s true enough; almost invariably I have to look stuff up If I’m doing anything remotely complicated. Library names, function declarations, examples, etc. A lot of cutting and pasting to replicate a known starting point and customizing from there.
Now. I do have more than a clue at the end of the day how it all works, but this doesn’t mean I necessarily bother reinventing the wheel when I can download or copy and paste a perfectly good existing wheel.
Modern AI’s are pretty good at code snippets.
“It may make traditional software coders obsolete”
Vibe coding, looks like the market for debugging other people’s vibe code has a lot of upside.
This is probably fine for hobbyists, things like Arduino and the Pi have a lot of upside for making some things more accessible and grinding out code … is a grind.
Mostly I think the impact will be to make professional coders more productive. Writing the code isn’t that much of the challenge for professionals, it is understanding the requirements, selecting the proper hardware, having the experience to pre-diagnosing potential flaws, writing maintainable code that fits the requirements, and * knowing how to debug and fix faults *. Personally I find debugging to be the hardest skill of them all.
Any non-trivial project will require you to understand what the code is doing.
Tom,
I agree. I think debugging is usually where most of the fun is. Or most of the headache and ulcers, depending on the pressure and the stakes in the given situation.
Ton and Mark,
Yes debugging is what takes the most effort. Most of the time I have to step back and make sure I really understand what is happening before I can find a bug…. and like all thought problems, the bug usually seems obvious, but only after you find and fix it.
Mark Bofill,
I frequently have to refer to ‘the reference manual’ to be sure I am doing things correctly….. but I always know what the code is supposed to be doing when I finish.
A new culinary adventure today. We tried St. Louis ribs in the Instant Pot. 26 minutes under pressure, then sauce them and finish under the broiler in the oven. My son was the official ribs judge [and cleanup crew]. Turned out pretty good… not all-day-smoking-over-charcoal good, but pretty good. I added some smoked paprika to my spice rub mix to put some smoke flavor on it. Definitely gonna add it to the rotation. Next time I think Iâll use baby back instead of St. Louis ribs.
Ukraine may have done it again. This is very preliminary but coming from several sources [including one Russian]:
âBREAKING: Ukrainian drones flew out of grain train car hatches and destroyed 13 Russian tanks, more than a 100 armored vehicles, 10 fuel cars, and other equipment being transported by the Russian train in occupied southern Ukraine.
The hatches appear to have been opened remotely, again.â
From Grok:
âThe attack involved a multi-stage strategy. Initially, the SBU sabotaged the railway tracks near the village of Oleksiivka in the Bilmak district, causing the train to derail. Following the derailment, Ukrainian forces deployed swarms of drones, reportedly hidden in grain cars traveling alongside the Russian train, to strike the immobilized equipment. Some sources suggest the drones were released from remotely opened hatches, targeting the tanks and other armored vehicles. HIMARS rockets were also used to target the locomotive and outermost cars, ensuring the complete destruction of the convoy and rendering the rail line inoperable, disrupting a key Russian supply route from Crimea to Zaporizhzhia Oblast.â
https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_3ca1f5c4-e4e8-4da1-8b52-54bce874aa06
I saw a couple of references calling it â Spiderweb Twoâ.
If true, the Russian rail system may get bogged down with inspections.
Going back to the fiber optic controlled drones, Lord Bebo posted these images on X. There is going to be a massive cleanup one day!
https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1931447704237846908?s=61
Russell,
I have a set routine for my ribs. Grilled with indirect heat, as low as i can get the gas grill, sitting on the patio with baseball on the AM radio, cold beer in my hand. The beer is the timer for when I need to flip them. Usually takes 3 to 4 beers.
When an instapot can replicate that experience I may try one!
Dean P,
I bet the nests last longer.
Russel
I think they are reopened though.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-drone-attack-moscow-closes-2-major-airports/
Dean,
Measuring fineness in beers is genius.
Lucia,
So Ukraine is messing with all of Russiaâs supply transportation modes⌠in one week.
Trained, Planes, and Trucks
Maybe they are planning to start something like a ground offensive.
When the Ukrainians realized that the Trojan Horse bit wasn’t likely to work again, sort of a one shot scheme, and hit on Trojan crates which looked like all other crates, they triggered a scheme that could be applied over and over with other common occurences in our modern landscape.
Think of it. Exploding toilets, or even more specific, urinals.
The opportunities abound.
There must be many others.
Lucia,
A chemical plant was the target near Moscow that may have shut down the airports:
âRussian Telegram channels report a drone attack and fire at Azot plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region of Russia.
Azot is the second largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers, ammonia and explosives in Russia.â
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1931594975742992599?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Tom,
There is speculation that the Ukrainian F-16 managed to get the drop on the Russian fighter jet because it was getting intel from a newly donated Swedish Saab 340 AWACS radar plane:
âNot just an F16, the elephant in the room is a Swedish AWAS system now detecting Russian aircraft hundreds of KM away in real time and directing missiles fired by the F16. The SU35 never even knew it was being engaged.â
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/06/ukraine-russia-trump-drones/683043/
Why Trump thought he could negotiate peace is a mystery I cannot comprehend. (Well, other than Trump is deluded about Putin.) Putin was never going to give up anything.
Well… yeah. Putin was unaware of Russia’s vulnerability. He’s been consistently unaware. He will continue to be unaware. He is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire, so he got fired on.
It is almost certainly true that Ukraine did not tell the Trump administration about the plans to attack, when it was imminent or how they did it. Zelensky is not an idiot. (No– not even if Ed Forbes thinks he is “discredited” with… someone..)
Bannon and these MAGA are idiots inaddition to being a**holes. Berating a country for attacking a country that invaded them? That refused a ceasefire? That is currently barraging them? Of course they are going to counter-attack. That’s what they must do. Any attempts at “peace” need to recognize that a country that is being bombed has a right to bomb back.
Might nuclear war eventually happen? Sure. But the main thing that increased the chances of that happened in 2022 when Russian invaded Ukraine.
Bannon may think it’s not good for Ukraine to punch back for… reasons. But who cares what Bannon thinks. The person being attacked has a right to punch back.
Putin has been consistently refusing ceasefires.
He refused on on May 10. Zelensky would have been willing to agree to a ceasefire.
But you know what happens if you refuse a ceasefire? You rare saying you are going to continue firing on people. They are likely to fire back. That’s the deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/10/leaders-britain-france-germany-poland-arrive-kyiv-ukraine
And Russia did, indeed, exercise it’s part of the “no ceasefire” deal. Russian launched a big attack on May 25. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-drone-fragments-set-kyiv-apartment-building-ablaze-official-says-2025-05-24/
Obviously, Ukraine firing back is not a “sneak attack”. It’s not even “escalating”. Ukraine and Russia are engaged in a full blown war (that Russia started!)
You know what Putin was going to do at the “peacetalks”? He was going to continue to refuse cease fires. These people claiming there is something “sneaky” in Ukraine not just dropping all their guns while Russia is firing on them and openly refusing to stop are just idiots.
Sorry, but attacking a country that has invaded you and is literaly bombing you is nothing like Pearl Harbor. Calling this a “sneak attack” is like calling the invasion of Normady a “sneakattack”. Of course the allies didn’t publish an APB informing the NAZI’s of the precise details of the plan, the date yada, yada.
The fact that Russia wasn’t alerted of the plan doesn’t make it a “sneak” attack.
The reason this war continues is that Trump won’t threaten Russia with fully arming Ukraine. As for the idea that not arming Ukraine will end it? Not going to happen until the last Ukrainian dies. And after that, if he thinks he could get away with it, Putin will press for more expansion of Russian power. Precisely what he will press for, I don’t know. Exactly when he will press? I don’t know.
Putin is a very political animal and knows how to play the US or sense our lack of resolve. This war is bound to escalate because Putin wants “more”. Much more.
More “mostly peaceful” riots in Los Angeles…. but this time they will end quickly with 2000 national guard, and many thousands more active duty marines preparing to deploy to LA from camp Pendleton if needed. ICE officers were assaulted, federal buildings and vehicles vandalized, fires set, and of course, the obligatory looting of stores.
Funny how theses mostly peaceful riots seem to always take place where Democrats control everything.
Lucia,
“Might nuclear war eventually happen? Sure.”
I sincerely hope the fighting ends long before that. I am starting to have some doubts.
Honest question: do you think the chance of Ukraine regaining the Eastern provinces is worth 150 million dead in the USA? I do not.
SteveF
I personally try to stay away from “peaceful riots”.
lucia wrote: “Why Trump thought he could negotiate peace is a mystery I cannot comprehend. ”
As I recall, we had a discussion here about that last fall, with the general opinion being that Trump thought he had leverage to push Putin to make concessions. But we could not make more than hazy guesses as to what that leverage might be and/or how it might work.
Maybe Trump’s claim was BS. Or maybe his leverage was something that he really did not want to do and Putin called his bluff.
The most plausible leverage would be to severely curtail Russian oil exports. But that would impact global oil markets with negative consequences for the US economy, unless OPEC were to greatly increase output to compensate.
Lucia,
Trump said this during his meeting with Mertz:
âSomething happened a couple of days ago,â Trump said, referring to the attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to retaliate, said Trump, who added that he shares the Russian leaderâs frustration with the attack.
âHeâs unhappy about it,â Trump said. âIâm unhappy about it.â
Mertz chimed in that Ukraineâs attacks were against military targets while Russia attacks were aimed at civilians
Nothing says a righteous immigration protest like people standing in the street waving Mexican flags. Not a good look people.
MikeM
He could have leverage. Offering to arm Ukraine more completely would be leverage. He doesn’t want to do that. So… no leverage.
Russell
Which makes Ukraine’s more justifiable.
It looks like the Musk-Trump tempest is blowing over as fast as it spun up. I am more and more inclined to think it performative.
(1) Remember how the Dem media were eagerly pushing the silly idea that it was Musk who was really calling the shots in the Republican Party? Last week clearly re-established that Trump is the unchallenged alpha dog of the Republicans.
(2) Remember the Dem media claims that Musk was somehow lining his pockets by taking the position at DOGE? Now we have the Dem media pointing out how bad the BB Bill is for Musk, due to ending EV tax credits. That not only establishes the integrity of both Musk and Trump, but undermines the narrative that the BB Bill somehow benefits Musk and “his billionaire buddies”.
(3) Finally, we have prominent Dems saying they agree with Musk and implying that he is back on their side. That could be a big deal for Tesla sales. It turns out that Tesla sales were off by something like 30% in the first quarter of 2025. That makes sense because there is surely a large overlap between the sort of people who would virtue signal by buying a Tesla and the sort of people who would virtue signal by refusing to buy a Tesla. The bust up gives those people permission to go back to buying Teslas.
The question was whether Russia was willing take what land it had already taken and stop all the killing. It was a valid question. The answer from Russia is “no”, so onwards.
You would normally only notify another party of a covert operation if you anticipate the immediate reaction to that attack might directly endanger them. For example Israel attacking Iran might put the local US Navy in danger and they need to be prepared.
I wouldn’t expect Zelensky to notify the US of that attack because operational security was paramount. I doubt Zelensky put a hostile journalist in the group chat either, ha ha.
For the record I don’t think Trump is pro-Russia, IMO he just doesn’t care much about this conflict one way or the other. It might as well be Rwanda vs Somalia to Trump.
Trump wants the EU to step up for a local brawl in their neighborhood as the EU continues their professional dithering. The EU has become complacent and dependent. Putin senses all this and presses his advantage. Until there is domestic unrest in Russia or serious setbacks on the battlefield Russia will likely continue.
NATO should continue to make them pay for every single inch.
“NATO should continue to make them pay for every single inch.”
Yes, and that has been the story for 18 months. They really may be fighting to the last Russian.
Tom Scharf wrote: “IMO he [Trump] just doesnât care much about this conflict one way or the other.”
I don’t think he cares much about who wins. He cares about stopping the killing. He cares about small risk that the war might turn into something far worse. And I think he cares about the impact that the war might have on his options for dealing with Iran.
How much I wish Mike M. was whispering in Trump’s ear.
For inquiring minds, why are Russian aircraft covered with tires?
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-covering-its-aircraft-in-tires-is-about-befuddling-image-matching-seekers-u-s-military-confirms
Thanks, john, but I was not stating what I would say to Trump. I was mainly stating what I hear Trump saying. He has been very vocal about wanting to end the killing. As a candidate, he often expressed concern about the danger that the war might expand beyond Ukraine. The bit about Iran is my inference, but it is the sort of thing a negotiator never says aloud.
Mike M,
“The bust up gives those people permission to go back to buying Teslas.”
4-dimensional chess?? Maybe, but maybe just the kind of blow-up we have seen before with Trump.
In any case, people who make a car purchase based on politics are, IMHO, lunatics.
Trump clearly doesn’t care much about the moral issues in Ukraine, beyond wanting to stop the killing….. which is a position considered by many to be very immoral.
Suppose Mexico planned on entering a security pact with China, leading to placement of Chinese troups along the US border and nuclear weapons based very close by. Would the US ever allow this? I think not. I am quite sure that is the justification for attacking Ukraine.
SteveF,
But it was not Trump who blew up, it was Musk. And Musk went way over the top with the Epstein and impeachment stuff. Trump’s response was pretty restrained, at least for Trump. It was just enough to establish that he and Musk are no longer BFF’s and that Trump is happy to leave it that way.
I don’t buy the 4D chess business. This was not even regular chess. More like checkers. Or, given how predictable the Dems are, maybe just tic-tac-toe.
To be clear, I am not saying the Russians are justified, I am saying they believe they are justified, even if we don’t.
SteveF
I think they believe they are justified. I also think their belief is incorrect.
But with respect to their position on peace negotiations, their belief matters. Also with respect to what happens in the decade after peace negotations, their beliefs matter.
CNN: Israel vows to stop aid boat with Greta Thunberg and other activists on board from reaching Gaza
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/08/middleeast/israel-vows-stop-thunberg-freedom-flotilla-latam-intl
I think about ten 2,000 lb. laser guided bombs might be appropriate, but if you want to be sure you should use a nuke.
The Bee:
Illegal Immigrants Helpfully Wave Flags So ICE Knows Where To Send Them buff.ly/OtKHe58
Mike M.
I suggested you advise him because I think your perception of the world is a lot more realistic than his.
I continue to think you impute to him a higher level of thought than I think him capable of. But then you may have watched him more closely and have a better grasp of this than I do.
john,
My perception of the world has been heavily influenced by Trump.
Donât call them âlooters.â Theyâre undocumented shoppers.
Radical bargain hunters.
Russell thanks for “undocumented shoppers”
If they are “undocumented shoppers”, maybe they are also just involved in an “unpublicized store promotional events!”
I do like undocumented shoppers.
Sadly Greta Thunberg was detained by Israel on her “selfie yacht” without injury. She will be forced to watch some Oct 7th videos and then sent home.
The problem with a rather passive police presence (which I more or less have supported) during mostly peaceful protests is the rioters in question are perfectly aware of the expected non-response and then take advantage of it. This encourages more of the same as the protesters know where the red lines are.
At some point you need to change the calculus in order to change the behavior. Declare an unlawful protest, surround the area, arrest everyone, and prosecute them all to fullest extent of the law.
Watching people bombard police vehicles for over an hour from an overpass with rocks, scooters, commercial fireworks, etc. while hundreds of police stand around and watch is kind of crazy.
The pendulum is going to need to swing back towards law enforcement, this was just an embarrassment. I was watching two livestreams for a while and CNN actively avoided showing the rioting behavior in their coverage.
How aboutâŚ
petrol transfer and ignition mechanism
I have confirmation on something I said was preliminary a few days ago. A Ukrainian F-16 shot down a Russian Su-35 over Kursk Oblast. This marks the first confirmed air-to-air kill by a Ukrainian F-16. A Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C assisted by detecting the target and guiding an AIM-120 missile.
Maybe Tom or Mark can explain this further, but as I understand it the Swedish AEW&C radar plane stood far off from the battle and transmitted information to the F-16 about aiming the missile. So the F-16 never turned on itâs targeting radar. This meant the Russian fighter pilot didnât know he was being targeted until the missile was upon him.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1932101704998408450?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Russell,
The only odd thing about that IMO that might require explanation is how the F-16 was able to successfully integrate with a Swedish aircraft. But yeah, that’s the direction we’ve been going with networked avionics and sensors for some time now. It’s (reportedly) why F-35’s make F-15’s and F-16’s more lethal. Here for example, although like most articles it doesn’t explain it very well IMO.
Anyways. I guess the F-16’s integration people paid close attention to the appropriate NATO STANAGs and got it right.
[Edit: Here is what looks like a better discussion of exactly this I think
https://www.thelowdownblog.com/2024/06/how-ukraines-new-swedish-awacs-make-its.html
]
OOOhhh. I understand better now. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but my second link claims that Ukrainian (and to some extent Russian also) fighters fly low to avoid being targeted by ground defense systems. This limits their radar range. But by networking sensors, the F-16 is able to use the AEW&C’s radar data. I read the info is shared over Link 16, which truth be told is actually a little dated. But apparently it gets the job done.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2025/dc-schools-truancy-youth-crime/
The truancy rate in 2015 was 6%, it is now 30%. This article believes more administrative/counseling positions are required.
AI Overview
“Washington D.C.’s school budget has seen significant growth, especially in the past few years, with funding increasing faster than the city’s overall budget. Local funding for schools has nearly doubled in the past decade, from $1.4 billion to $2.8 billion, with the Universal Per Student Funding Formula (UPSFF) foundation level increasing by nearly 60%. This growth is driven by factors beyond just the UPSFF, including federal aid and additional local funding.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-120_AMRAAM
“In November 2023, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration signed a contract worth US$605 million to purchase the AIM-120C-8, replacing the older AIM-120B, which will be sold back to the US for further donation to Ukraine.[95]” (The US is currently on version AIM-120D)
“AMRAAM uses two-stage guidance when fired at long range.
The aircraft passes data to the missile just before launch, giving it information about the location of the target aircraft from the launch point, including its direction and speed. This information is generally obtained using the launching aircraft’s radar, although it could come from an infrared search and track system, from another fighter aircraft via a data link, or from an AWACS aircraft. Using its built-in inertial navigation system (INS), the missile uses the information provided pre-launch to fly on an interception course toward the target.
…
Once the missile closes to self-homing distance, it turns on its active radar seeker and searches for the target aircraft. If the target is in or near the expected location, the missile will find it and guide itself to the target from this point. ”
“AIM-120B deliveries began in 1994. This variant had improved electronics, including a digital processor, upgraded memory, and electronic unit hardware chassis upgrades.”
Wow. Here is a local LA TV commentator explaining that you can’t send police in to enforce the law because that might result in a confrontation instead of âjust a bunch of people having fun watching cars burn.â
https://x.com/SteveGuest/status/1932043760860328336
The enemies of civilization, hard at work. Still the Democrats adhere to willful blindness in this regard. At the rate they are going, I question if they will take the House at midterms.
Again, suits me!
Yes, “enforcing the law is why people are breaking the law” was quite the rage in the punditry last night. I had to mute it because they just kept saying it over and over. It was pure TDS, I don’t recall that explanation coming up on Jan 6th somehow.
They don’t even discuss whether there should be deportations or not, or whether this crowd behavior should be stopped and how that could be done. It’s all about Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.
Who’s car is that burning? I assume not the television announcer’s.
Thanks Tom and Mark, I get it now. Ukraine has taken out 3 or 4 of Russia’s AWACS and Russia only had 8-10 to start with, so the Russians may be holding theirâs out of harm’s way.
Well… I guess it’s Waymo (of Alphabet)’s cars
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/rioters-set-waymo-self-driving-cars-fire-company-suspends-downtown-la-service
I guess “abundance of caution” is the new way of saying “because people are setting them on fire”.
Saddened? Not angry? Upset? Appalled? Outraged?
Lucia,
That’s exactly it IMO. It’s very easy to be forgiving of mobs having fun, enjoying watching stuff burn, when it is other people’s stuff they are destroying. I have a difficult time persuading myself that the politicians and pundits would be singing the same tune if it was their stuff being destroyed. But maybe I am wrong and the commies are pure of spirit and virtue and would rejoice in the destruction of their own private property.
“You can get 100,000 Ukrainian drones for the cost of an F-35, of course the drones have very short range and very limited boom power. An F-35 can drop a ginormous bunker buster into a Hamas leaderâs tunnel. They all have their place.”
Agreed that they all have their place. At this point, I think Ukrainian drones have destroyed and damaged more Russian tanks and bombers than all the F-16s ever in existence. On the other hand, an F-16 taking out an SU-35 (albeit with a huge assist) is stupendous and shows the power of networked warfare.
I’m sure this is causing major ripple effects inside the Beltway as the Pentagon, White House, and Congress all rethink our future force design and development.
The narrative does seem to be settling around “now look what you made them do”.
I thought we were past “the solution to crime is to eliminate the police”, but not quite yet.
I am trying to connect the dots between robotic taxis and enforcing immigration laws. I must be missing something.
Tom,
There are no dots. Riots get out of hand. That’s pretty much it.
Russia is in the process of returning some 6k Ukrainian dead, coming mainly from the failed Kurst operation.
Chatter has it that the main reason for Russia taking the trouble to return, and not just bury, these Ukrainian soldiers is âeconomic warfareâ by forcing Ukraine to pay death benefits to the family.
If an Ukraine soldier is confirmed killed, a large death payment is made to the family. If only listed as âmissingâ, the families get nothing. Itâs said to take quite a bit of time and effort to get a court ruling that the missing soldier is actually dead.
Death benefit for 6k Ukraine servicemen is about $330M US ($55K each). Note that this is just a small fraction of missing Ukrainian soldiers. With reports listing 60k missing, the total amount of the Ukrainian government death payments being withheld from the families is about $3.3B US.
https://themoneyconverter.com/UAH/USD
2 million 271 thousand hryvnias death payment
https://babel.ua/en/news/111160-the-government-has-simplified-the-procedure-for-payment-of-benefits-for-the-death-or-injury-of-military-personnel
âUntil we have the body, until we have DNA analysis, this person will have the status of missing,â
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-missing-34e42072d806dd738b3bc31ce969224c
Update: a new law I found from just several days ago. This article lists $15M Uk, not $2.71M Uk as the death payment. If the $15M Uk number is correct, the withheld payments total $360k US each, for 60k missing, a total of $21.6B US owed to the families.
Gives Ukraine a $ incentive to slow walk death payments and list deaths as missing.
https://news-pravda.com/ukraine/2025/06/06/1403346.html
âUkraine will recognize missing combatants as officially missing only two years after the end of hostilities. The Verkhovna Rada has passed the corresponding bill.
In addition, the death of a missing person will have to be proven in court.
According to media reports, until then, the relatives of the deceased will not receive the compensation of 15 million hryvnias that is granted in the event of the death of a Ukrainian soldier.â
Ed Forbes
So, according to “chatter”, otherwise, the Russians would keep the bodies from Ukrainian families? If so, the Russians are truly horrible. Not that we didn’t already know that.
BTW Ed,
If someone is going to run a story about payments to missing Ukrainian soldiers families when they die, they might also want to include the detail that the soldiers salaries are still paid while they are captive or missing.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-provides-state-aid-to-pows-and-families-while-captured-soldiers-retain-salaries-50383663.html
This is pretty much the same thing the US dies– while you are missing or captive, you are still paid. When you die you get a death settlement– which among other things, the family can use to bury you.
Maybe the Russian’s motive for returning the bodies is to save the Ukrainians money. After all, after the return the bodies, the Ukrainians no longer have to pay those soldiers salaries.
After you are dead, the family no longer gets your salary though. Of course.
From what I understand, Russia just showed up with the bodies before they had come to a deal on how to handle that transfer. IOW Russia is doing it more as a psyche op. Notice they aren’t complaining about Ukraine not handing over dead Russians.
I remember when Trump assured us, over and over and over again, that he was gonna end the war between Russia and Ukraine on day one. I said at that time, repeatedly, that Trump must hold hidden leverage over Putin.
From the authority:
âISW continues to assess that Russia is not interested in peace negotiations with Ukraine and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war in order to make further battlefield gains.â
Trump didnât have any hidden leverage and his bloviating was all BS. Now everyone can see that Putin has been playing Trump and Trump has a egg all over his face. Whatâs amazing is that Trump is still not condemning Putin.
Calling Putin “crazy” isn’t condemning?
U.S. Rep. Nanette Barragan seems to be endorsing insurrection:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/06/09/rep_nanette_barragan_if_ice_and_national_guard_left_los_angeles_you_would_see_this_all_die_down.html
In other words, the rioters should be permitted to prevent the government from enforcing the law. That is pretty much the definition of insurrection. There are three elements to the crime: https://legalclarity.org/what-is-the-legal-definition-of-insurrection/
(1) “A critical element in defining insurrection is the intended use of force. This involves actions beyond peaceful protest or civil disobedience, aiming to employ violence or intimidation to achieve political objectives.”
(2) “A coordinated plan is another essential element in establishing the offense of insurrection. This involves a structured effort by individuals or groups to organize and execute actions aimed at disrupting governmental authority.”
(3) “The intent to disrupt or overthrow governmental authority is a defining characteristic of insurrection. This element focuses on efforts to challenge the legitimacy or functioning of government institutions, often through direct attacks on government buildings, officials, or infrastructure.”
All three are clearly met by the LA riots. Barragan’s “solution” is that the government should capitulate.
Also, her claims about what ICE is doing appear to be outright lies.
I am pretty sure that condemning foreign leaders is not an element of effective diplomacy. Never has been, never will be. But it is an effective tool for riling people up for war.
OK, I really donât care if Trump condemns Putin, I would prefer that he stopped sabotaging Ukraine. The latest move in a series:
âZelenskyy said the US redirected 20,000 anti-drone missiles intended for Ukraine to the Middle Eastâ
Also, during his recent meeting with German Chancellor Mertz, he said he was not happy with Ukraineâs attack on the Russian strategic bombers while ignoring the stepped up attacks by Putin on Ukrainian civilians.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-said-us-redirected-20-124851040.html
I would say in the grand scheme Russia’s (and Ukraine’s) military behavior during this war has been pretty decent. The civilian death ratio is pretty low and there doesn’t seem to be intentional targeting of civilians (some occasional exceptions).
Compare this to the Israel / Hamas conflict. Ukraine values their civilians and thus evacuates them from the front lines and doesn’t hide among them. Russia plays by the “rules” and doesn’t mass target civilians for terror.
I would also say my threshold is non-zero. Civilians are going to die during wars but in this conflict both sides are making efforts to keep the fight among the armies. There will always be rogue soldiers and units doing bad things, and shoot first and ask questions later is pretty much SOP near the front line.
There is a counter argument that a war ended quickly by being as viscous as possible ends up saving lives by shortening the war (see Hiroshima).
Musk splits up with Trump over Republican budget!
Must makes up with Trump over LA riots!
Maybe Musk just has different policy positions on these issues and acts accordingly. Perhaps critical thinking is sometimes involved and behavior isn’t exclusively based on tribal loyalty.
Biden spied on Musk according to the WSJ. Note that they frame it a bit differently, ha ha:
U.S. Agencies Tracked Foreigners Traveling to See Musk
Homeland Security and the Justice Department kept tabs on foreign nationals visiting Muskâs properties in 2022 and 2023, reflecting concerns about influence
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/elon-musk-visitors-homeland-security-dbf96364?st=PTHUQp&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Tom Scharf,
Looking into Musk’s foreign contacts does not strike me as unwarranted. From the same article,
I’d hope that SpaceX in general wouldn’t be entrusted with the missions of national security agency satellites. All that SpaceX needs to know is the mass, dimensions, and destination orbit (e.g. LEO, GEO). Perhaps acceleration / vibration tolerance, although I’d think those limits would flow the other way, that is, SpaceX would provide a vibration profile to the company developing the payload.
Allegedly some of the Putin discussions were over Starlink / Ukraine and whether this was being used for military purposes and thus becomes a valid target for Russia.
Musk is building a similar constellation called Starshield for the US military.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starshield
To what extent Musk discloses the contents of these discussions is unknown, and to what extent he should beyond “trust me” is debatable. It’s another step entirely to intrusively spy on him but this could just be collateral spying when the target is his contacts. YMMV. My guess is they haven’t found anything or else it would have been leaked. It’s perfectly OK to strip SpaceX employees of any security related info but it’s probably hard in practice.
Lucia, in your link:
No payments if âvoluntarily surrendered, left military units, or simply deserted.â
Surrender: voluntary or not ? The topic tweaked my interest. This question can take one down the rabbit hole with Alice. Probably of little interest to most, but I find the ambiguity intriguing.
âWhile not a formal military law, the Code of the US Fighting Force disallows surrender unless “all reasonable means of resistance [are] exhausted and … certain death the only alternative”: the Code states, “I will never surrender of my own free will. If in command, I will never surrender the members of my command while they still have the means to resistâ..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_(military)
One account of a surrender that was labeled âvoluntaryâ. The unit was obviously surrounded, out of supply, and had no feasible path of retreat, but was still labeled âvoluntaryâ as no shots were fired, even if in a hopeless situation .
âAccording to him, he and his comrades in misfortune surrendered without a single shot.
“We were assigned the task of being at the observation post near the bridge. But something went wrong. The authorities could not bring provisions, walkie-talkies. There was absolutely no connection. The fire was first from your side, and then from our side. The next day we see that people with bandages are coming from the other side. They bypassed us and started contacting us. We realized that they were Russians. And they took us prisoner without a single shot being fired,” Sergei recalls.â
https://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/08/17/a-group-of-servicemen-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-surrendered-in-the-kursk-region-without-a-single-shot
I get the impression that âvoluntarily surrenderâ is in many ways like defining porn as in â I know it when I see itâ (Justice Potter Stewart)
Ed,
Sure. Some people surrender voluntarily, some care captured, some go missing, some die. I think everyone was aware of all these possible statuses before you posted all your lengthy definitions.
If your intention is to make some meaningful claim, make it.
Heat lists are out! Jim and I are contested! There are two Am-Am Sr. Bronze couples. Either they will be better than us and beat us in everything or we will!
It’s not easy to look up everything about one’s competition, but it looks like it’s their first am-am competition. It’s also ours!
She dances pro-Am silver rhythm; I dance bronze. So all other things being equal, she is probably better than I am. He is dancing pro-Am bronze– same as Jim. The are braver than we are and are also dancing bolero in am-am. (Jim and I deferred that to a later competition. We haven’t started it yet.)
I told Vlad we were contested and he said “BEAT THEM!!!!”
My younger sister always counsels: “No small children will die.”
My teachers think I should dance as if small children will die if I lose!
Likely outcome on Rhythm: Either jim and I will be 2nd (i.e. last) in everything or we will be first in everything. It’s possible we are evenly balanced in ability…. but… well… probably not. I just have no idea which it might be. (If the DeBraals or McBrides had entered, I’d have an idea. But this couple? No idea!)
Lucia,
Exciting!
I guess you’ll still kill them though even if they decide the situation is hopeless and they voluntarily surrender?
Alright, I won’t quit my day job to pursue a career as a comedian.
I hope your partner holds up his end of the stick. I imagine husband wife partnerships might get a little difficult sometimes. Enjoy the wins if you get them.
The Bee:
Trump Responds To Mostly Peaceful Protests With Mostly Peaceful Military buff.ly/ni4HcFt
Tom,
The four Am-Am Senior 1 couples I am currently aware of are husband and wife. And yes, husband wife partnerships can be difficult. On the other hand, finding an am-am partner when you are near beginner level (as competitors go) and over 50 is also darn hard!
HaroldW,
SpacesX does indeed publish detailed information for potential satellite customers, including noise and vibration limits, along with a lot of other subjects. I doubt The Air force is lacking information.
I can imagine I’m dancing with the wife, letting her do her thing and she is looking good and then at the end I go left instead of going right, trip her, and she falls into the judge’s table and rips her dress. We lose by one point. On the way home I have the glare of death going through me. Maybe we can laugh about it in 30 years.
Tom,
There is no judges table in NDCA. They are required to stand. (You can run straight into a judge. It is not advisable.)
One judge I know heard they got tables at Country and said she envied them.
A long awaited victory. Rare Breed Triggers selling their forced reset triggers like hotcakes again. About darn time.
I guess I can excuse Trump for having illegally banned bump stocks in his first term, considering that his administration has sorted this business out correctly.
Now THIS is motivation for me to finally pick up an AR-15!
mark bofill,
Do you have any idea of the fire rate for these Rare Breed Triggers comparted to bump-stocks? My impression from viewing videos was that bump-stocks were 1) hard to control, and 2) caused wildly inaccurate aim. Are the “forced reset” triggers any different? Do you have one? Will you get one now? How many AR-15’s do you already own? (only joking đ )
Steve,
You have hit on one of the important fundamental differences between bump stock and forced reset trigger. The idea is that the ‘bump action’ is entirely isolated to the trigger and not to the lower receiver, which ought to mean much more accurate aim. The whole butt of the gun isn’t sloshing around in other words, just a piece of the trigger mechanism (as I understand this anyway).
Rate of fire unknown. I have read accounts that place this at somewhat under full auto to just as fast as full auto.
I don’t have one.
I will get one, yes! I don’t need one. I once had the pleasure of firing a full auto Thomson machine gun briefly at my local range though and it was as much fun as you might imagine, maybe more. I expect this to be similar.
The funny part is, the darn trigger is going to cost nearly twice as much as my AR-15. I’m going to do this kit for starters and make sure that works. Then I’ll get a Rare Breed trigger. Then it’ll be time to figure out what my wife wants for a thousand bucks to even up the domestic expense budget!
[Edit: Actually, I own surprisingly few guns, only 4-5, depending on whether or not I count my son’s .22 rifle. It’s my brother who’s the one with the armory. This will be my first AR-15.]
According to my vast first person shooter video game experience full auto is only useful during last gasp panic scenarios. The 3 shot burst was about optimal for assault weapon types as it was a good tradeoff between accuracy, fire power, and ammo use. Unless you are taking down one of those annoying level bosses which are bullet sponges.
How much this matches the real world is unknown. I suppose if you are providing covering fire for your squad then full auto has its uses.
Tom,
Yeah. But how useful are any of my guns really? Sure, woe betide the intruder who decides my castle is the one he wants to burgle; I’m well prepared for that unlikely eventuality. But other than that they’re primarily for my entertainment. I do expect it to be highly entertaining, albeit expensive to shoot on an hourly basis…
..but what the heck. Life is short.
Let us know how it goes, Mark. I’d like to go shooting more than I do but I’m rather shy about pulling out guns around others :/.
For nostalgia’s sake, I picked up a Deagle, PS90 SBRed, AUG, with the special forces sight, and a few suppressors. I haven’t fired them yet :(.
NYT: When the narrative is unfavorable, go to “Republicans pounce”.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/la-protests-mexican-flags-republican-reaction.html?smid=url-share
“The sea of red, white and green Mexican flags at anti-deportation protests this week in Los Angeles has been seized upon by conservatives who argue that the demonstrations are inherently un-American
…
Photos of masked provocateurs waving Mexican flags atop burning Waymo taxis spread instantly across conservative social media this weekend. Republicans pointed to them as a prime example of why President Trump called in the National Guard and how immigration had gone too far in California.
…
To many Americans, including those on the left, it might seem a bad strategy to fight deportations of undocumented immigrants by waving the flag of another country.
But protesters said this week that they see the Mexican flag as a symbol of defiance against Mr. Trumpâs immigration policies or of solidarity with other Mexican Americans. ”
I have no idea what message they are really trying to send, but regardless it is a very bad strategy when Trump is bloviating about an illegal immigrant invasion. If I was a CA taxpayer it would be even more irritating.
Dave,
I had to google that. Wild looking gun!
Suppressors shouldn’t just be legal. They should be standard. I don’t see why blowing everyone’s eardrums out in a self defense situation is preferable to the alternative. It’s plain harassment of firearm owners, you ask me.
[Well. They are legal. I meant they shouldn’t be regulated.]
He who laughs last laughs the hardest.
Zombie invasion.
Covid vaccines are getting worse, not better
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7406a1.htm
“Vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2024â2025 COVID-19 vaccine was 33% against COVID-19âassociated emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) visits among adults aged ?18 years and 45%â46% against hospitalizations among immunocompetent adults aged ?65 years, compared with not receiving a 2024â2025 vaccine dose. VE against hospitalizations in immunocompromised adults aged ?65 years was 40%.”
They never figured out omicron. The silence from the vaccine evangelists is deafening. What bothers me is public health went from full out shaming to just silent instead of a disciplined approach to reporting results. I have to dig this stuff out of academic papers.
Ah, I see I’m now blocked as promised. So sad.
—
Yes, Joshua, as you have been told, you are blocked. You are still blocked. I’m just letting this one through.
– Lucia
Tom,
I think the decline in “efficacy” has to do with how the measure it and the fact that nearly everyone has some immunity now because nearly everyone has had covid or a previous shot.
I’m immunized against smallpox. If you put me and a bunch of already vaccinated people in a pool to test the efficacy of the smallpox vaccine, the “efficacy” is going to come out mathematically low. Why? Because no one in the control group is going to get it either.
Lucia,
I had the same thought, the numbers in that paper didn’t tell me what rusk I’m avoiding. If my chance of hospitalization goes from 90% to 40%, the shot is worth it. If the chances go from 0.90% to 0.40%, then probably not.
Is there a way of extracting absolute risk from that paper?
HaroldW,
Yes, it is often difficult to tease out the real risk levels, and especially when everyone (north of 99%) already has some level of immunity. As best I can figure, covid related illness causes about 3%-4% of all deaths. Since nearly all illness related deaths happen among elderly people, that 3%-4% range puts something of an upper bound on the potential benefit of booster vaccinations; maybe regular booster shots could reduce your total risk of death by a couple percent if you are north of 65 – 70 YO. A complication is that usually people who die from respiratory illness of any kind are in terrible health before they die….. so the reduction in risk of death among the very-unwell could be higher, and among the relatively healthy could be lower. My 94 YO mother in law, vaccinated twice and otherwise in good health, caught covid at 93 and recovered within a week…. with no treatment.
I have not gotten the regular boosters after catching omicron 2 years ago.
The lack of clear guidance on this subject is astounding.
************************
Tom Scharf,
Do not hold your breath waiting for mea-culpas from the authoritarian left, no matter how bad the policies they insisted on turned out. And that goes for every policy, from public education to foreign policy, including, of course, covid policy. “We are absolutely right, and you WILL do as we say!” is their default position on every policy: a nearly perfect embodiment of evil.
SteveF
Well…. it’s more honest than the very clear guidance we used to get. That guidance was that absolutely everyone absolutely should get one… yada, yada.
I’m very pro-vax in general. I’m glad I got the vaccine. I’ll still get one whenever it’s for a new strain. I don’t get boosters. Am I right? Am I wrong? Who knows. But I go out to dances where I see large crowds of people. Many travel to competitions or for a variety of reasons. 33% efficacy is better than 0%. (I admit I probably wouldn’t get the vaccine for 2% efficacy. What’s my cuttoff? Dunno.) I also have an idea what the efficacy means– it’s measured against a baseline where the control group has lots of immunity at this point. (Heck, I must too. )
But I also knew that “over confident claims” was a big thing during Covid. I mean….clearly things couldn’t be fully known with a new disease, a new vaccine and so on. So I’d rather see ‘unclear’ guidance at this point that extremely “clear” ones.
My PCP when from being very pro-vax to anti-vax for me, and I am the poster child for who is at risk with Covid because I have a lot of comorbidities. My plan is to just follow his advice with future Covid VAX. Iâll just ask him for his advice every six months or so.
Lucia,
We watched â the man who knew too muchâ yesterday. The girls really liked it.
Incidentally I picked them up from their dadâs work. They had a take your kids to work day to work day and he works close to where I live. I didnât know they were still doing Take your kids to workday, but I think itâs a good idea.
“VE against hospitalization * was limited in adults aged 18â64 years * ; therefore, VE against hospitalization was only estimated for adults aged ?65 years in both networks. In the IVY network, VE against hospitalization was estimated in immunocompetent adults due to limited statistical power to assess VE for immunocompromised adults; ”
In theory efficacy should be measured against the control group, the unvaccinated and uninfected. However it appears in this case it was just against people who haven’t been vaccinated for a while and had a negative blood test.
It may be more appropriate in 2025 to just test against people who haven’t been vaccinated for a long time. There is definitely a problem that the real control group is basically non-existent now. Everyone who believes they have not been infected has certainly been exposed multiple times.
The numbers against the covid variants in another paper was clear, a big drop-off when omicron showed up, both in protection and fast waning. The efficacy drops to almost zero after about 4 months.
For the record I think this has a lot more to do with omicron than science not trying very hard. They just can’t overcome the transmissibility of omicron and its improved replication. It would be better if they had the humility to just say that out loud. Overall the now smallish death rate speaks for itself, some combo of omicron’s less virulence and public immunity against severe illness.
So at 40% I think the shot is still worth it if you are heading into a known high risk environment, long vacations, etc. If you have already had vaccinations and an active case, meh.
This all came up because my wife came back from a wedding with her first confirmed case of covid. It has been a 3 week symptomatic slog. I got her some Paxlovid which you now must jump through hoops for or else it is $1400. The efficacy of Paxlovid is also now at 44% (versus 90% previously). If insurance isn’t paying for it in many cases then that is a sign they have run the numbers and it isn’t worth it to them at least for immunocompetent people.
I haven’t gotten a shot for a few years but I might get one before heading to Europe in a month.
We’re off to Baltic, UK, and Netherlands end of month for 6 weeks. Last Covid shots were last fall. No measles shots since we were small, although I think I actually had measles sometime around 1950.
We’re up for tetanus boosters (10 year intervals?)
I don’t think we’re going to do any shots. I’ve only had an adverse reaction to a shot once. It was a quinalone and it earned me red spots at about 3/4 inch on center all over my body.
But still, I don’t want to go overseas right after an injection ??
Optimal protection for a covid shot is about 2 to 4 weeks after injection and then it wanes to about zero after 4 months.
It might turn a symptomatic case into a mild case. I got covid during a cruise but had recently got vaccinated and it was a non-event. Coughing and hacking up a storm on the tour bus will likely get you a few stares, ha ha.
Tom
And once again: I think this is due to pre-existing immunity. When Paxlovid first came out, lots of people were getting it for the first time and were unvaccinated. Now, most people have some pre-existing ability to respond to the virus. Even if it’s not enough to prevent infection, it’s enough to make the infection milder.
FWIW: Jim got mild covid early this year. I tested several times. I did not get it. That doesn’t mean I am fully immune to all current and future variants. But I probably have some degree of immunity.
Yes, I didn’t get it either when my wife had it recently but I only tested once. I was sleeping on the couch a few nights. She had a cough and some various other symptoms but no fever. She also had a bit of rebound covid after Paxlovid was complete. Almost no symptoms after 5 days but then lingering symptoms for another two weeks.
Tom
My teacher/pro’s wife is on chemo therapy. I want to reduce my likelihood of getting anything contagious as low as reasonably possible and also having anything linger as short as possible. I don’t want to pass anything to him for him to pass on to her.
Her getting a cold means a delay in the chemo. So… not good.
On a completely different topic, just wondering if anyone here is following the Karen Read (re)trial in Massachusetts. It’s all over the local news here in Boston.
HaroldW,
Never heard of her until now.
Welp, the signs have been there for days, and it has now come to pass. Israel has hit Iran.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/13/israel-strike-iran-trump-nuclear-talks
Well, it’s on.
Israel can probably expect retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on its cities.
It was kind of now or never for Israel. Iran has enough nuclear material to make bombs and Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria are weakened.
All those C130’s to the Middle East recently may have been prep for this.
I do wonder if Israel knows where Iran stores its already enriched uranium, I don’t see this making a big difference in the long run unless they eliminate that too. I would say the chances of this eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat is well less than 50%.
Needless to say Iran attacking US assets would be a grave error on their part. Things are going to be tense for a while.
“The commander in chief of Iranâs Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Hossein Salami has been killed in the Israeli strikes”
This is a bit embarrassing for Iran. These attacks were mysteriously broadcasted for the last few days in US media. I thought it was just a clumsy bluff. It would appear Iran didn’t take precautions.
For the first time in a long time, there is an American movie in the works that I am definitely looking forward to watching.
SPACEBALLS 2
May the Schwartz be with you!
https://youtu.be/WsK-KPi_w3w?si=Ri-G4Smv2JIQrbTA
Odd air traffic patterns in the Middle East as airlines clear Iraqi, Jordanian, Israeli, Syrian, Lebanese, and Iranian airspace.
Screenshot at 12:30 AM Florida time (all aircraft, no filters):
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1933382666860020093?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
The Ohio State University would rather switch then fight. Instead of blocking students from using AI to complete their schoolwork Ohio State is mandating using it:
âThrough AI Fluency, Ohio State students will be âbilingualââfluent in both their major field of study and the application of AI in that area,â Ravi V. Bellamkonda, executive vice president and provost at Ohio State, said in a statement. âGrounded with a strong sense of responsibility and possibility, we will prepare Ohio Stateâs students to harness the power of AI and to lead in shaping the future of their area of study.â
Starting in fall 2025, hands-on experience with AI tools will become a core expectation for every undergraduate at the college, no matter their field of study.
https://fortune.com/2025/06/10/ohio-state-university-ai-fluency-requirement-all-students/
Still preliminary, but it looks like Israel has taken out a number of top military and nuclear leaders in Iran, including Hossein Salami (IRGCâs Commander-in-Chief), also, Gholam-Ali Rashid (Iran’s Armed Forces Strategic Commander), Dr. Tehranchi (Project supervisor of the Amad Plan and a top nuclear scientist), Fereydoon Abbasi (Former head of Iranâs Atomic Energy Org)
Governor DeSantis says if a mob blocks the street and surrounds your car you have the right to drive over them to get out of there.
Quote: âItâs their faultâ
God, you have to love Florida
https://x.com/rubinreport/status/1932960276535480582?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
john a ferguson
No measles shots since we were small, although I think I actually had measles sometime around 1950.
Weâre up for tetanus boosters (10 year intervals?)
–
“In Australia, tetanus booster doses are recommended for adults to maintain protection. After an initial tetanus vaccine series, a booster is generally recommended every 10 years. Adults are also recommended to get a booster at age 50 and at age 65 if more than 10 years have passed since their last dose.”
–
Weird. When I retired 10 years ago the only booster required was at 50 years and then one would have to question why.
The injection was given to people who had a dirty wound as an extra precaution.
–
Never saw or heard of a case of tetanus in a vaccinated person in 40 years and I only once saw an older person catch measles at 80 years of age, one person.
Might be a need in an immunocompromised person but otherwise highly unlikely.
john a ferguson
No measles shots since we were small, although I think I actually had measles sometime around 1950.
Weâre up for tetanus boosters (10 year intervals?)
–
“In Australia, tetanus booster doses are recommended for adults to maintain protection. After an initial tetanus vaccine series, a booster is generally recommended every 10 years. Adults are also recommended to get a booster at age 50 and at age 65 if more than 10 years have passed since their last dose.”
–
Weird. When I retired 10 years ago the only booster required was at 50 years and then one would have to question why.
The injection was given to people who had a dirty wound as an extra precaution.
–
Never saw or heard of a case of tetanus in a vaccinated person in 40 years and I only once saw an older person catch measles at 80 years of age, one person.
Might be a need in an immunocompromised person but otherwise highly unlikely.
–
Also, new name for a troll, an edge lord
Seems life expectancy is short for military leaders and nuclear weapons scientists in Iran.
Gentle suggestions: stop shouting ‘death to Israel’, and stop enriching uranium beyond the level needed for light water reactors (5-6% U235).
Those steps solve most of Iran’s problems. Will they take those steps? I doubt it.
Another Boeing crash, this time a 787, seconds after takeoff. Video suggests a sudden complete loss of power when the plane reached ~600 ft. The sole survivor (minor injuries!!!) reports “a loud bang” before the crash. Engine fan disintegration?
Lots of people on the ground also killed.
Israel had a secret drone launch base set up deep inside Iran.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1933467947525194162?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
I think mandating in some instances and forbidding in others is the correct approach.
I hear blue books are back
Truly amazingâŚ
â On the strikes against IRGC Air Force leadership: Israel tricked the top command of Iranâs air force into a meeting and then kept them there, Iâm told by an Israeli security official.
âWe did specific activities to help us understand things about them and then used that information to make them act in a specific way,â the official said. âWe knew this would make them meet, but more importantly we knew how to keep them there.â
https://x.com/treyyingst/status/1933493841392177570?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Ya gotta love FloridaâŚ
BREVARD SHERIFF WAYNE IVEY TO POTENTIAL RIOTERS: “If you throw a brick, a firebomb, or point a gun at one of our deputies, we will be notifying your family where to collect your remains at. Because we will kill you, graveyard dead. We’re not gonna play.”
Thereâs more:
“If you hit one of us, you’re going to the hospital, and jail – and most likely get bitten by one of our big, beautiful dogs we have here.”
video of still more:
https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1933227784941236615?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Off to the competition. It’s a whole 10 minute drive. đ
Jim and I will either lose EVERY heat or win EVERY heat. (The other couple’s dance quality is totally unknown. She’s a better rhythm dancer than I but he has never competed. So totally c*ap shoot as far as info goes.
Wish us luck.
Lucia, your post:
âI think mandating in some instances and forbidding in others is the correct approach.â
I would be interested in seeing an example of both instances.
Good Luck!
Best of luck, Lucia!
AI use is similar to calculator use back in the day.
Once everyone had access to a calculator then it made sense to allow them during tests … AFTER … you had shown mastery in how to do basic math without a calculator.
Ohio State will need to make sure everyone has easy access to AI so nobody has an advantage, but they should also do the “blue book” thing to make sure people can write in complete sentences and understand how basic research is done.
https://www.wsj.com/business/chatgpt-ai-cheating-college-blue-books-5e3014a6?st=AvgGZJ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Homework groups in college used to drive me crazy, organized and overt copying of homework right before class to turn it in for credit. However they didn’t get to copy each other during the tests.
I can also attest to many people graduating college and being unable to write an email that made sense.
If somebody got run over or beaten while blocking the road for some protest by an irate commuter then the protester’s lawyer will not want me on the jury, ha ha.
I thought it was interesting when I saw yesterday that the US State Department had instructed all non-mission essential personnel to get out of the Middle East. Now we know why.
I’m sure Israel is watching for a response from Iran but the Israeli strike was (IMO) retaliation for the Iranian support for the Hamas attacks. The Iranian regime honestly should have been undermined and taken out a decade or two ago before they got so far along in refining uranium.
I did enjoy Brevard County when I was living there. Used to spend time after work at a friend’s part-time gun shop that was also frequented by the then-sheriff who told me he wanted to know if I had any problems with any of his deputies. Brevard is very different from Broward.
Good luck, Lucia!
I don’t know how Israel’s Mossad does what it does, but it sure is good at it.
Tom!
â I donât know how Israelâs Mossad does what it does, but it sure is good at it.â
Yes, best in the world.
Necessity is a powerful motivator to be the best.
This Democrat (Ritchie) sounds pretty reasonable in an interview with Sam Harris
https://youtu.be/2IfJuujhS1U
Tom Scharf,
It probably helps that many Israelis speak Arabic (and other languages) perfectly.
Dino. That is what Richie sounds like. Democrat in name only.
Unlike Earth, which has fixed north and south poles, the sun’s equivalents flip on an 11-year cycle.
This is because its equator spins faster than its poles – every 26 days compared to every 33 days – meaning it does not rotate as a solid object, instead becoming so unstable it eventually flips.
–
Learn something new each day
Heavy commercial traffic has returned to the skies in the Middle East. The planes are taking a route either north or south of the combat zone.
Screenshot at 9:00 PM Florida time
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1933692540747985190
This may be nothing or maybe it’s somethingâŚ
.A USAF diplomatic courier plane left Joint Base Andrews at 5:45 PM for destination unknown. It is currently crossing the Atlantic ocean. It is a Boeing C-40 Clipper, a military version of the Boeing 737 Next Generation used to transport passengers. The Registration is 02-0203 Call sign is âBoxer41â.
I seem to remember that registration from the plane that Jared Kushner used to use when he was negotiating between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Screenshot at 9:25PM Florida time:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1933692540747985190
This may be nothing or maybe it’s somethingâŚ
That USAF diplomat flight landed in Paris at 6:36 AM (Paris time). I donât know if that is the final destination or a sleepover break.
It was nothing⌠senate delegation attending the Paris Airshow.
A Russian fighter jet, a SU-25, came apart in mid air yesterday. There is debate online, whether this is a friendly fire incident from his wingman, following close by or a disintegration due to high G force in a tight turn.
You be the judgeâŚ
Real time and enhanced videos:
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1933549544446243080?s=61
My guess is it fell apart
Jim and I won the multi! (I guess it wasn’t a “championship”– so medals. No little statue!
The way the judging works is each judge ranks in each dance. There were two: All 7 judges gave us 1 in chacha. All judges gave us 1 in rhumba. All judges gave us 1 in swing! Whooo hoooo.
In terms of “being nice” (which I’m not in competition… hahah!) we lost one of the cha cha singles against them.
How could this be!!!!!!
The heat has more than 1 event. So the floor was crowded. We were dancing just fine. And then two dancers– Jessica who is — I kid you not — about 5’11” was dancing with “Tall Greg” — who is definitely taller than 6’2″. (My 5’10” pro nicked named him “tall Greg” were dancing next to us and litterally danced right into us during chacha. I mean… like Jim and I had to separate your hand! (This was probably Tall Gregs bad floor craft. Tall Greg is mostly a great dancer btw.)
We are significantly smaller than both those people. It took us a few measures to get back on. So that’s our excuse. Between songs jim tried to get away from Greg and Jessica… but that was difficult.
In later events, Jim made sure he had space around us!!
In the 3 dance, I won. There were two dancers. One was “Russ”. But in the scholarship, “I was robbed” — and so was Jim!!! LOL! (Russ beat us both- – and everyone else. I won’t go into my theory of why I was robbed. It’s not as respectable as the chacha theory. There’s really not much evidence… Haha!)
I’ll have a funny story to relate. But I do more dancing today. My hair appointment is at 1:30. So, tomorrow!
Russell,
That’s really something!! I couldn’t see anything incoming to hit it. But who knows?
Lucia,
Way to go!
Did you get to do a TD celebration dance in the end zone?
Russell, maybe tossing a football?
John,
Did you see this? Israel sent a rocket 1,000 km and hit a specific apartment!
https://x.com/shinehamesha/status/1933457858223341602?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
also
https://x.com/repomenow/status/1933487130908487785?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
(I canât verify either photo at this point)
Russel
No. We just walked up in a dignified way and got our medals. đ
We have been trained on “how things are done”.
I’ll have some photos after tomorrow. I need to get them from Jim who got them from Pat. đ
Lucia, that’s great! It sounds like you had lots of fun too. I’m pleased for you.
Details of the U.S. Armyâs 250th Anniversary Grand Military Parade, From Grok:
https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_5a1e3ade-6651-4f82-924d-839e125eb1f8
Parade starts at 6:30 PM eastern time
Congratulations Lucia, better start building a trophy shelf.
Russell,
AFAICT we don’t know if there was an intended target in these shots, perhaps there was. Dumber long range drones do sometimes hit high-rises on their way somewhere else, or else get shot down and hit something. OTOH Israel, like the US, tends to hit what they are aiming at more often than not.
Iran’s failure to relocate high value personnel was a big time f*** up on their part.
How effective Israel’s strikes were overall is a mystery. If you ask me Israel would need to do a commando raid to the underground nuclear facilities to do some real damage. They need to eliminate the enriched uranium stockpile and that would be hard, but Iran is known to make mistakes.
“This afternoon, IDF spokesperson Effie Defrin says Israel has âair freedom all the way to Tehranâ.
Tom,
I won’t need a shelf because as soon as we start winning many we will move up to the next level (Silver.)
Oddly, at our age, with Ams there is more competition at higher levels! Generally, what happens is there are couples who fell in love with ballroom dance when they were young. They’ve been dancing for freakin’ ever! They love it, budget yada, yada… So they dance quite well and have already pass through Silver, gold and now dance “Open-Open”.
In pro-Am there are individuals who came to love dancing. So that’s a not-insignificant number of competitors, especially for women. But in Am-Am, there are very few couples that fall in love with dancing as a couple after the age of… oh… 50 or 60. So there are relatively few at the more beginner levels!!
I’m sort of excited there are currently 4 active couples– that’s assuming the couple we danced against sticks with it!! Some people– especially older guys who might mostly be doing it to make their wives happy — can’t take the crushing blow of losing!!
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if their teacher, Tom, thought, “Oh. They’ll likely be uncontested.” In that case, they would have been #1 in everything. Why would he think that? Two of the couples who dance am-am SR have decided to only dance in competitions that are BOTH in dancers cup and WDSSeries. This wasn’t in Dancers Cup. And Tom may have known this. But…. he wouldn’t have known we planned to enter. And even if he did, he wouldn’t have know how well or poorly we dance because we don’t dance where he teaches. Ever. Long story– nothing against Tom who is a nice guy and a good teacher who teaches in a studio fairly near here. )
Lucia,
Sounds like there are a lot of mind games in the dancing competitions.
Trump is taking a bit of a risk to be in an open parade a couple days out from a wipeout of Iran’s military high ranking personnel. The Secret Service better be on high alert.
Tom, from Grok:
There is no definitive evidence from available sources that confirms President Donald Trump will actively participate in the military parade scheduled for tonight, June 14, 2025, in Washington, D.C. However, multiple reports indicate he will play a significant role in the event, which coincides with the U.S. Armyâs 250th anniversary and his 79th birthday.
Trump is expected to deliver remarks celebrating the Armyâs legacy, as stated by the America250 initiative, and will likely watch the parade from a presidential review stand on Constitution Avenue near the White House. Some sources suggest he may attend ceremonial activities, such as an enlistment and re-enlistment ceremony following the parade. Posts on X also mention Trump reviewing troops earlier today and confirming the parade will proceed despite potential rain, indicating his active involvement in the eventâs oversight
“Some peopleâ especially older guys who might mostly be doing it to make their wives happy â canât take the crushing blow of losing!!”
I can see that pretty easily. If you aren’t really committed and you are holding your wife back then that would be less than fun if she ends up disappointed. It’s probably the same for a husband / wife golf team.
“Sorry honey, you aren’t cutting it, I’m going to team up with this Latino dance stud instead so I can be competitive”, ha ha. Awkward.
Honestly Tom….. wives can be bitchy when you are learning or practicing. And the dynamic of lead follow is that the flaws of a poor beginner lead impact the beginner follow more than vice versa. So this doesn’t help. ( There are different types of mistakes. Some affect your partner… some not so much. Also, some are more obviously mistakes. )
Jim and I have been told we are the most cooperative of the married Am-Am partners who practice at the studio. One couple is famous for shouting matches. ( I’ve danced with the man socially, Jim has danced with the woman socially. Not only do they bitch about what their partner does wrong, they do it when dancing socially with other people!!!!!) They do remain married and dancing, so that’s probably their communication dynamic.
Another couple is reported to interact with the woman constantly lecturing the man who says, “Ok. Ok. Ok.” I’ve never danced with him; Jim’s never danced with her. (To be fair, she does know the routines much better than he does. She also has a better sense of musical timing. The first is a problem because he’s supposed to lead. That’s hard to do if you don’t know what the next move is going to be. The second is even if you know, things are supposed to be done on certain counts or even between counts. Now, this is true for both– but if a lead is mistimed, it really bugs the follow and is obvious even to beginner follows.)
Lots of teachers desceribing Am-Ams development passing through “leader hell” and then “follower hell”. One problem: “leader hell” is also hell for the follow. It’s just that it’s the things the lead does wrong that make things be really, really aweful.
So in some sense, it actually makes sense that guys are less likely to stick to dancing at the beginning. Lucky for me, Jim wants to do it. And he’s willing to also dance pro-Am. So he does some of his “beginner hell” stuff with his teacher, not me.
Tom,
Jim tries a pattern in night club 2. I don’t even recognize what the lead is. This follows:
Jim tells me the name of the pattern he intended. Then he says “Didn’t you do pattern in your routine with Devin?”
Lucia: “Yes.”
Jim: “Why can you do this move when Devin leads it?!”
Lucia: “When Devin leads, I can tell what direction I’m supposed to move in. And after I get there, he’s in the right place relative to me.”
Jim: “Sigh.”
I told a teacher-guy on a dance forum this story. He said, “Yeah. When I was younger, my brother who is an excellent dancer came to a wedding. He could get anyone to dance anything. I never ask a follow why they can follow someone else and not me again.”
(His brother and his partner had been Am-Am champs for quite a while. )
Do you have trouble with pretend women dancing with real men and competing with real women dancing with real men?
Russell,
I was thinking of our dancers, having danced, toss a football.
Commercial GPS chips are limited to 18k feet MSL and 1,000 MPH, but I suspect there is no such limitation on the military. I suspect they used some other means of navigation, though since really good precision with GPS requires local (realtively) correction.
The Ublox chips I use with commercial correction are good to a couple of centimeters but subject to above speed and altitude limitations.
John, your comment:
â I suspect they used some other means of navigation, though since really good precision with GPS requires local (realtively) correctionâ
I have read about an anti-ship missile that navigates to the correct area using inertial guidance or GPS and then switches to targeting guidance that uses actual pictures of the ship they are looking for.
I’ve posted a new post. I’ll be closing comments here. The new post is an open thread– but it’s unusual.
https://rankexploits.com/musings/2025/go-fund-me-dancing/