November 9, 2025 – Government shutdown updates .
So maybe this shut down is ending.
• Senate moves forward: The Senate has voted 60-40 on a key step toward reopening the government.[…]
• What happens next? There is more to come before the government can reopen. Any one senator can delay consideration of the package for several days, plus the House will have to return and adopt the deal struck in the Senate before it gets sent to President Donald Trump’s desk.
There are, of course, important national issues related to this. But I’m making this all about me: I have a reservation at 10:55 am Tuesday. I dance Wednesday– my guess is I’ll start near 9 am. I dance Silver; Bronze usually dances first. Honestly, they should also schedule the men only first (they don’t have elaborate hair/makeup). But they don’t seem to think of that.
No idea when my hair appointment is. 🙂
With luck, money will be flowing out of Federal purses by Monday night.
Open Thread.
I fully expected the Democrat filibuster to end roughly this week. The whole thing smelled of a manufactured crisis to motivate their voters to get to the election booth but they need to end it before Trump has justified cause to trim the government even more — especially since they seem to have lost in court on every case they’ve brought forward.
The GOP will allow them to put forth amendments to the appropriations which will fail to get a majority and they’ll go back to their base saying, “see? We need a Democrat majority from the 2026 elections!”
Both sides will be motivated to get checks flowing to the employees as quickly as possible this week. Even the Dems who are still muttering about leverage and holding firm for the Obamacare extensions need the government funded and working before Thanksgiving.
Both sides happy.
Schumer had to pretend to act tough and made impossible demands plus a clever insertion of health funding [Medicare in Australia] as a pretext to prevent signing a simple funding Bill.
He then had his stooges fold for him after his macho longest shut down for nothing in history.
–
Health Care is a very vexed issue that has been at the core of all successful socialist governments in Australian elections and will play a part in future American ones.
It just seems wrong to restrict access to necessary surgery and healthcare based purely on affordability but in my opinion there needs to be a moiety of payment , not totally free to prevent abuse of the largess of the community.
The Republicans win by extending three other Bills in with the passage of this one giving year long funding for those other needs.
Still comes back in January for next funding, I feel the Democrats want Trump to end the Filibuster so that if they get in midterm they can use the same tactic to stymie Trump reforms.
Some Senators to get 500,000 from the Government for illegal phone tapping by law seems a bit rich, they should go through the normal legal process.
That’s it.
angech,
I have it on good authority (Joe Biden) that it really does pay to be a US Senator. That is why they hang on, seemingly for ever…. even those who are demented, drooling half the time, and can only get around the capital with a walker.
Fetterman voted for approving the CR, and is (again) being vilified by his party. Says he:
“What am I guilty of? I believe we have to have a secure border and it’s wrong to shut the government down.”
To me it sounds like he is representing a state where those are reasonably popular views.
The last time Fetterman voted for a Republican bill, his chief of staff resigned and publicly accused him of mental illness. More of the same to follow, I’m sure. The left always eats its own in the end….. just ask all the ‘comrades’ Che executed to preserve purity of the Cuban revolution.
The AP’s biased (and terrible) reporting “shines” again: https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-federal-workers-health-care-b05ab519c57743ae2da10424f8fb50b6
The article claims Trump and the GOP used federal worker pain as pawns in the political battle but doesn’t bother to mention the Democrats were doing the same.
I noticed all federal employees cited were union officials and the article closes with them noting disgruntlement at the 8 senators who “caved”. I also have to question the “sacrifice” when one of the workers cited had to cut back to one cup of coffee per day. A pot of coffee is cheap if you brew it yourself, even when you purchase high quality beans (although 100% Kona runs somewhere around $90 per pound, you can get high quality beans for much much less than that).
While I keep seeing references saying “the polls” are blaming Republicans for the shutdown, I haven’t seen any evidence of this. I don’t even see citations of these polls, just blanket statements in the media or online forums (like on Reddit).
Once upon a time, journalists would display the actual numbers or graphs from real polls and give you a citation but the AP, McClatchy, et al have seemed (to me) more like propagandists than journalists for the last 20 or 30 years and it’s been getting worse every year.
The main reason people who aren’t politically engaged think the Republicans are responsible is that they control all branches of government. They don’t understand filibuster budget leverage and the legacy media puts zero effort into explaining that.
I’m entirely unsympathetic of the federal workers plight. It’s effectively a free vacation for them. Some definitely might have a cash flow problem but most regular people will happily take a 40 day paid work stoppage. Unpaid essential workers are a bit of a screw job though.
The reason why enhanced Obamacare subsidies expired is because the Democrats intentionally sunsetted them for budget scoring purposes. They then cried foul when they weren’t assumed to be permanent later.
The legacy media also intentionally obfuscated the expiration of enhanced subsidies with expiration of all subsidies countless times.
SSDD.
Remember, We knew there were some financial landmines built into Obamacare:
Elizabeth MacDonald, LizMacDonald, FOX Business,
“Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Democrats knew in 2009 Obamacare would fail and cost taxpayers more than they admitted because they were warned by the GAO, CBO, HHS, internal government and insurance company memos and multiple hearings.”
Details in the Article:
https://x.com/LizMacDonaldFOX/status/1989034348256038948?s=20
Well now the Democrats stepped on the landmine
EDIT I bet Obama was behind the shutdown in an attempt to save Obamacare.
I’ve read articles suggesting it was all really about Schumer (and others?) demonstrating their ability to fight Trump to avoid primary challengers from the AOC commie wing of the party. I don’t actually know.
Hah!
Just like I said two weeks ago:
Willis Eschenbach @WEschenbach, 1h
“This is freakin’ hilarious. We’re back to the “GLOBAL COOLING! EVERYONE PANIC!! of my youth.”
NY Post:
“Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse — predicting a new ice age”
https://nypost.com/2025/11/12/science/gulf-stream-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost
Kidding aside, If the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico is slowing down it would reduce the heat transport out of the Gulf which could be contributing to extremely high Gulf SSTs.
Mark, Your post:
“I’ve read articles suggesting it was all really about Schumer (and others?) demonstrating their ability to fight Trump to avoid primary challengers from the AOC commie wing of the party. “
I remember hearing Caroline Leavitt say that during a press briefing from the White House.
Tom Scharf,
“The reason why enhanced Obamacare subsidies expired is because the Democrats intentionally sunsetted them for budget scoring purposes. They then cried foul when they weren’t assumed to be permanent later.”
Yes, and NOBODY in the MSM is honestly explaining this. It is dishonest and 100% politically motivated reporting. Instead of addressing the issue on the merits (eg inflation alone has driven costs significantly higher) and honestly addressing potential compromises, the Dems scream about how cruel Republicans are. Simply dishonest. Compromise on important policy questions requires a serious counterparty. Since Obama, Dems have not been that serious counterparty, and have consistently refused to compromise.
I suspect the shutdown was mainly about motivating the Dem “base” for the 2026 elections.
Lucia,
An ex employee of mine works for a company that does transportation work in the US, sort of a long distance Uber service. I ask her what the cost for Chicago to Indianapolis would be. She said about $360. They’re real busy right now too though.
Interestingly, they also will transport pets, cars, International business tours. They took a bunch of Mexican bankers to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl and took a bunch of Japanese businessmen, on a tour looking for property in the Midwest. I told her I’d be available as a driver for the dog transport service.
The supply a driver, if you want to take your car.
AI threatens the labor / capital balance of old, or so it will seem to most. The commie branch of the Dems is already banging this drum. Bernie says that AI could eliminate almost 100 million US jobs. He’s not wrong, it might. It is certainly possible, even probable, that AI is going to cause disruption.
This is their road out of the wilderness and back into power, unless conservatives figure out a more compelling answer than UBI and a robot tax.
Any scientist who claims that the Gulf Stream will collapse is either an idiot or a liar. Or both. As long as the trade winds blow, the Gulf Stream will flow, along with all the other major ocean surface currents.
The AMOC might weaken, but I don’t think anybody really knows. In any case, that would have very little effect on climate.
It is a myth that there is something special about the mild winters in western Europe.
Whatever happened to all those tens of millions of workers displaced by the mechanization of agriculture? I guess they must have all starved to death, accounting for the big population drop during the 20th century.
Mike,
Yep. I’m not saying they are right, only saying that it’s a compelling story. They took our yobs, derp de derp, dang machines! Fear is compelling.
I hope we come up with something better.
Although also to be fair, there is a big difference between starving to death and eeking out a tough living in poverty, and a lot of the workers displaced by the mechanization of agriculture probably eeked out a tough living in relative poverty. Dead people might tend to vote more for Dems than Repubs, but people left out in the cold by AI may be much more likely to vote for commies who promise them UBI and robot taxes than people scoffing at their suffering. Just saying.
AI could eliminate jobs or it could make everyone more productive. If overall productivity was to remain the same then AI could result in a lot of job losses. Another result may be that everything just works better and most people keep their job or they learn how to mow lawns.
I would recommend everyone get better at using AI as a tool. My best guess today is it is going to be disruptive and take a while to sort out.
Tom,
Good advice in my view. The CTO at my company put it this way – short term, those who refuse to embrace AI and figure out how to use it are the ones who need to be scared about keeping their jobs. His argument is that those who don’t use AI won’t be competitive with employees who will.
mark bofil wrote: ” a lot of the workers displaced by the mechanization of agriculture probably eeked out a tough living in relative poverty.”
More like a tough living in a factory. Probably materially better off than they were on the farm, but perhaps less rewarding in other ways.
I doubt that any technological advance has ever caused as much misery for workers as stupid policy decisions.
mark,
Yes, fear is compelling, independent of any reality regarding AI. Republicans need to be prepared to take on the demagogues. I am not confident.
Tom Scharf wrote: “AI could eliminate jobs or it could make everyone more productive.”
I think the history of technological advances is that they tend to do both.
I think some would argue that AI is qualitatively different from earlier advances in technology.
Not sure I believe that, but it is something many believe. Earlier advances mainly substituted mechanical braun /power for human power, or mechanized simple repetitive processes that were previously done by a worker. Humans were clearly under-powered where great force is needed, so were replaced by machines in those tasks. In my teen years I held a part time job at a paper tube factory (cores for toilet paper and kitchen wraps being the most common paper tubes you might encounter). One of my tasks was placing a metal end cap on a cut, strong paper tube and using a crimping machine to secure that metal cap to the tube end…. forming a container… repeated thousands of times in a work day. That job no longer exists, having long ago been fully automated. I (arguably human, even as a teen ager) was intellectually “over-specified” for that task, since I was not using mental capacity at all for that monotonous task.
But AI can, at least in theory, make humans “under-specified” for many intellectual tasks. Combine AI with a human-like robot, and humans could become “underspecified” in nearly all tasks, physical and intellectual. Or as the Brits might say: ‘redundant’, expensive, and a candidate for lay-off.
I’m not sure I buy the argument, but I do think much will depend on how ‘advanced’ AI and robotics become, and how the two can be combined. Is there a point where many people (most?) are incapable of any type of contribution comparable to that of a robot? I don’t know the answer, but I think it worthy of thought.
We live in interesting times.
One of the problems I see with AI eliminating jobs, but creating others, is that the jobs they create are not tailored to the skills of people graduating from the American educational system. I would expect the AI created jobs to be technical in nature and require STEM skills.
All our current educational system is capable of is teaching gender studies and social justice.
Russell,
You touch on something I am struggling to wrap my head around. In some sense, since the end of the Dark ages human intelligence has been the fundamental ‘coin of the realm’. One makes money in proportion to the difficulty of the problems one can solve. This may not continue to be the case. I don’t know what the future looks like anymore.
The computer revolution changed the world. Few saw the impact of The Internet.
Somebody has to fix the robots. Somebody has to fix the robot that fixes the robots. The robot army will need management.
Having a robot army isn’t all downsides. They aren’t going to having shopping impulse problems at Amazon and credit card debt. They aren’t going to rob the 7-11, become drug addicts, or harass their coworkers.
They are going to generate GDP for the lowish cost of energy and raw resources. I’d still vote it is going to be closer to The Jetsons than Skynet or Idiocracy.
People value work and the life satisfaction it brings but they also seem to like vacation and weekends. Maybe we all work 10 hours a week instead of 40. I don’t think AI will turn us all into homeless fentanyl addicts, but it will be a net negative for some people I suspect.
“Maybe it’s two years, maybe five, maybe 10, but either way, the trajectory is toward drivers being put out of business, and 1.8 million truck driving jobs (not to mention all the other jobs they support) is a lot to lose in that short a period of time.”
That was from Vox in 2016. It has not happened.
https://www.vox.com/2016/8/3/12342764/autonomous-trucks-employment
Shortly after that appeared, Robert Tracinski explained why it was not going to happen:
https://www.tracinskiletter.com/p/the-future-isnt-that-fast
Tracinski’s short essay is well worth a read. Yes, the changes will be large. But for various reasons they always take a lot more time than might be imagined. And as they occur, other jobs become needed more and new jobs come into existence. So massive, widespread technological unemployment is never nearly as bad as imagined.
Tom,
I agree. There are some things I’ve already noticed AI is simply no good for. Accountability for example. There has to be somebody who cares watching over the AI’s attending to whatever it is they’ve been entrusted with, because the AI’s have no capacity to care if they make a mess or not. People aren’t going to be obsoleted, but the scarcity economics is going to change; qualities other than intelligence are going to become relatively more valuable. Things the AI’s can’t do are all going to become relatively more valuable than they’ve been.
“According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two.”
That was a paper titled “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” by a couple of Oxford profs. Published in 2013. The 47% estimate might or might not be reasonable. What was unreasonable is the time estimate of a decade or two. As Tracinski says, the future isn’t that fast.
Mark Bofill,
Why could “caring/accountability” about the outcome not be programmed/learned by AI?
Besides, seems to me we have an awful lot of humans who don’t care all that much about the outcome, and are far from accountable (see politicians in Washington DC, for example).
Yes, we might be heading for a future where plumbers working on existing infrastructure are a lot higher on the wealth scale. I’m looking forward to a lot more highly motivated Asian plumbers who attended the Harvard School of Plumbing, ha ha.
You know, I’ve got a kid (my youngest) just entering college. I don’t actually give a crap that change isn’t instantaneous. Understanding what is likely to happen over the next 50-80 years is still highly pertinent in helping your kids and grandkids select a livelihood.
Mike M,
Yes, the estimates for complicated technological development tend to be wildly optimistic. (Musk’s pronouncements being a good example.) I think 47% may be too low in the very long term. Maybe Tom Scharf is right about a shorter work week. My big concern is many people could have difficulty justifying even that.
It will be a long time before a robot replaces a plumber or electrician, but like replacing truck drivers, it seems inevitable in the long term. In the last 3 years I have been three times forced off the roadway by a semi driver “drifting” into my lane… probably either texting or falling asleep. A change to automated driving might be an improvement.
Tom Scharf wrote: “People value work and the life satisfaction it brings but they also seem to like vacation and weekends. Maybe we all work 10 hours a week instead of 40.”
John Maynard Keynes:
https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/1930/our-grandchildren.htm
Keynes, writing in 1930, guessed it would take about 100 years to get to that point. He based that on an estimate that the standard of living would grow by a factor of 4-8 in that time, so 1.4-2.8 %/yr. Not overly optimistic as to economic growth.
Yogi Berra: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
mark bofill wrote: “Understanding what is likely to happen over the next 50-80 years is still highly pertinent in helping your kids and grandkids select a livelihood.”
On such a time scale, there is only one safe prediction: Things will change. A lot.
50-80 years ago, more than a few young men assumed that they would spend their lives in the same sort of mining or factory jobs as their fathers. That was a big mistake that they suffered for.
Thanks Mike.
I am having difficulty with getting fooled by AI generated posts on social media. I am wondering if there’s some list of ‘tells’ that warn you that something is or maybe AI generated.
This is a problem that I’m sure the teachers face often. I’m wondering if they have a mechanism for identifying this kind of text.
Russell —
I generally try to not react to social media posts unless or until I know the person making them or can be sure that it is at least a real person writing it. I’ve seen too many lazy AI or creative writing exercises on Reddit (particularly on the AIO or AITJ subreddits).
I’ve seen mention of some telltales for AI-generated content but am not sure about their veracity — particularly since one of the telltales they cite is something I learned to do in high school and college: use em-dashes (‘–‘).
I’ve seen mention on other forums that there are tools teachers can use to detect AI-generated content but those tools apparently are fallible. People like to post complaints about being flagged for using AI to generate their papers but then they will swear up and down that they didn’t use it. It’s not my area of specialty so I really can’t say one way or another.
Mark,
My advice, assuming intelligence in the advisee, is to pursue a future in a field populated by highly intelligent people. If you don’t you may find that the biggest obstacle to your professional happiness is the boredom when things don’t move fast enough. I used to feel like I was trying to run through 3 feet of molasses in a couple of places I worked. Another real hazard of boredom is you’ll quit paying attention and start making mistakes. And you’ll hate it.
Do NOT go into architecture.
While I’m at it, I asked Perplexity to write some shell scripts to extract and write to a file particular listings in a set of 450 newsletters. It took a little tweaking, and yes, I could have written it myself, but Perplexity was a whole lot quicker. My guess is you don’t do much text nuturing.
I had hoped that Peplexity could handle the inevitable CRLF problems preventing re-wrapping the results, but it wasn’t any better at it than I am, even used the same tools I did 30 years ago when I had to do a lot of this sort of thihg. I’d hoped the art had advance, but no…..
The most reliable general purpose model is “what happened yesterday is going to happen today” but that can be a trap for long term planning. It’s going to be judgment call.
Just one word: plastics!
I think most young people will naturally embrace using AI as a tool. Anyone with good Google search mojo is already a step ahead.
It’s also entirely possible it will all fizzle out like nanobots.
Thanks John!
I’d agree with a slightly modified form of that. Find where you fit, or where you are at least somewhat challenged. I think your advice recommends seeking a field full of highly intelligent people because, well.. You seem to be a highly intelligent person who I gather was bored out of his mind (I’m sorry about that, BTW). Sadly (or not? Rise of AI might mean intelligence becomes cheap..) this is not universally the case.
Russell, one is emdash. I can kind of tell when a tech article is written by AI on an ad heavy site. They are very meandering and get to the point late (as to show more ads) and their grammar is overly perfect. Prompt: Write a long click-baity article that asserts something that is only a fringe hypothesis.
But it’s an arms race. There are AI detectors (about 80% reliable) and the AI is evolving to be better. Realistically there should be a requirement that AI content is always flagged.
Google is embedding AI tags into it’s AI altered pictures. The new super zoom photo tech on phones uses AI to make up stuff for sharper images. It’s controversial.
Related:
https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/11/forget-agi-sam-altman-celebrates-chatgpt-finally-following-em-dash-formatting-rules/
Tom —
You have to love the irony. Inside the article you linked regarding em dashes was the following: “readers believe they can identify AI writing by its overuse alone—although people can overuse it, too.”
Now, was that intentional irony or inadvertent?
These effing AI’s aren’t going to put me on unemployment because they do my job better than I do, but because they are so darn interesting to talk to. I keep getting sidetracked talking with Gemini and I’m not getting the work done I meant to today!
Where did I leave that jar of self discipline? Oh yeah, I remember now…
Mark,
I look at AI as providing shoulders I can stand on, and much more easily accessed ones.
When I was 10, guy across the street brought me two boxes of DPDT relays which the phone company was going to recycle- they had gold plated contacts. He then built a 28V DC (IIRC) power supply for me and gave me a roll of wire. I set about building all kinds of gizmos with them with the most useful one able to pulse dial the phone based on wrtiing the numbers on a segmented copper plate with a pen connected to the hot side of the 28 volts. It worked by accumulating the sequence of segments you traced then when you hit another tab, dumped the pulses into the phone. There was a steppet too and capacitors. It worked after a fashion but amazingly, it was possible to get stung by the 28 volts on the plate.
I wanted to try other things, but in those days, early 50s it was impossible to find anyone else who was doing the same sort ot thing.
This changed completely with the advent of Computer bulletin boards in the late ’70s where I could ask if anyone else was doing this and find people in Chicago area who were.
Much later when I was putting an arduino controled nighttime anchor drag detector/alarm I was able to collaborate with guys in France, Germany, OZ, and NZ some of whom followed along and built the same thing.
To me this was a joy and it continues to today. So yes, some people may be displaced by AI, but maybe they weren’t really doing anything anyway.
I bought a $200/year subscription to Perplexity and for me it’sat least an order of magnitude taller pair of shoulders. I love it.
Thanks Tom
In my humble dabbling with AI I have favorites based on the topic. I use Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok. I only have free subscriptions and have occasionally run of access which is why I started rotating.
My favorites:
For cooking chats hands down my favorite is ChatGPT. We seldom go through a day without talking about food. Today for example:
“Are free range chicken drumsticks better than regular chicken drumsticks”
“Is it better to cook chicken thighs and then freeze them or freeze them and cook them later?”
I tend to go to Grok for military issues. For example:
“ Where is the USS Ford located today?”
“What is the name of the Ukrainian town that is surrounded by Russians and about to fall”
For regular news, general information, and whimsical stuff I tend to go to Gemini.
“What medications are interfered with by grapefruit?”
I wonder if anybody here has favorites based on topic….
For instance, does anyone have a favorite for medical questions? Legal questions?
I only use Gemini. I expect there would indeed be advantage to interacting with more of them, but I spend most of my time at work and our IT guys have gone out of their way to make it hard to access any other AI, since our corporate policy says ‘thou shalt worship no other Gods before Gemini’ [Sorry. Our corporate policy is that Gemini use is allowed but no other AI is approved].
Mark,
Are there some topics you think Gemini does very well and some things you think Gemini does less well?
My little experience showed that Grok was better for recent events and product information (no doubt farming X) while Gemini was a better all arounder knowledge wise.
I asked about eight of them some very specific science questions on pulse oximetry and found Grok, ChatGPT, and Gemini lead the way.
When asked to predict reading changes if wavelengths of LED’s were altered I got some confident answers that did not agree with each other. “A person with one AI knows the answer, a person with a bunch of AI’s is not sure”, ha ha.
Once I asked the question in a very specific way I could get them to agree. In the end they all got the direction of reading change correct, but the magnitude prediction was wrong by quite a bit.
Russell,
Poultry Procedings commence this Sunday morning with our family, flown in from Oz and DC, and gathered in the yard behind my shop, will try to do a better job of Texas frying a turkey than we did last year.
I have the propane setup, the peanut oil, the tank, and three thermometers, two digital and one analog.
Last year the oil temperature got away from us, rose to 400F and over cooked the turkey.
forwarned is forarmed and not only that I have Peplexity’s step by step instructions on how not to screw it up.
And we have the apple pie.
Russell,
Gemini seems to do a good job all around to me, but it still confidently and seamlessly bullshits me if I press it past a reasonable expectation of expertise. You have to sort of learn where the line is, because Gemini won’t tell you, and it B.S.’s like an absolute master.
For example, in many technical areas it is right on the money, but if you ask about an obscure enough piece of software for instance, you can find questions it doesn’t actually know the answer to. It is likely to hallucinate very plausible sounding stuff in such a case, in my experience so far.
It’s helped me learn lots of things outside of technology though.
John, be careful! I was a nervous wreck that last Thanksgiving worrying about you
Thanks, Tom and Mark
New whimsical project……
I am asking Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok to compare the strengths of the three with respect to various topics.
Here is Gemini’s answer for foodies, (they prefer ChatGPT just like me):
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1989548301008379979?s=20
Russell,
not to worry. We were very careful, and will be again, but thanks for worrying about us.
John
I often find in technical areas that AI gets the details wrong….. it will correctly repeat some authoritative source, but then sometimes draw a wildly incorrect conclusion. Eg. What is the time constant for a 4 Hz low pass filter? Answer: “The tine constant for a low pass filter is 1/(2 Pi F), with F in Hz. For 4Hz that is about 40.”
First part right, second part: that is milliseconds not seconds, 0.04 second. I think you need to check for crazy every time.
John Ferguson,
Sounds like your deep fryer needs a PID temp controller that actuates a propane gas control valve. 😉
I have ended my Alexa plus AI early access.
There are still too many glitches, and it slows down every transaction. The good news is that both a transition to a Alexa plus AI and migration back to the original was very simple process.
I told my family I’m going back to Alexa’s stupid sister
SteveF,
I’d hoped that poultry procedures would go away after the overcooking of last year, but alas, no.
The kids expect it. which suggests that I make a probe on the end of some sort of silicone temperature rsistant flexible tube with a micro-controller readout device on a clip such that the probe will be embedded in the turkey’s leg and the readout would be clipped to handle on the cooker. It may even be possible to buy something like this.
I got a “Meater” blue tooth thermometer for use in our new Ninja Air Fryer and it’s been a treat. It is inserted in the meat du jour and provides a readout to the cell phone and once things are heating estimates when it will be done and even tells me to take the thing out of the fryer because internal temperature will continue to cliomb for another 45 minutes.
But the end of this probably shouldn’t be immersed in 375F oil.
I can probably buy something like the probe, but I’d jhoped that maybe I can convcince the kids (48-57) that we’d be better off at the Hollander.
John,
kids are a life sentence
(they are never too old to ask dad for help)
Derek
I think the “sign” is not necessarily over use. It’s using the *actually correct* – on the keyboard instead of -. The correct is longer, on my mac keyboard, I have to hit option dash. If I type something, I just type the dash, no option. This is the difference. (– -).
I asked ChatGPT to clean up grammar and spelling on a post. It uses the “correct” , longer, em-dash. If I type here, and don’t have it clean up, it will be the shorter, easier to type dash.
ChatGPT is actually quite a nice editor. First instruct it to change spelling and clearly wrong grammar only. Take those, then it will volunteer to suggest fixing clumsy sentences. Say yes, and decide which you care about. You’ve really written it, but you are still you.
Also, ask it to correct on actual objective accuracy. It more or less knows the difference between opinion and interpretation vs accuracy of facts.
But yes, it will have em-dashes, not regular dashes,
Lucia,
do you type directly into ChatGPT or do it by voice input or formulate a word processer document and import it? I’m trying to figure out how to do it easily.
Well we survived the dangerous cold snap with no falling iguanas.
Winter might be over because I’m watching a monarch butterfly flit around in the garden
Russel,
I typed a flat file and saved as .txt. I then copy paste chunks to ChatGPT. It was the first time I did it and I’ve used ChatGPT enough to know I wanted to control it and prevent it from doing anything and everything it wanted. You can do whatever order. But it’s best to separate things like “factual errors” from “Grammar, spelling” and “style”. Because I know from some discussion it can launch into “everything” and that’s much too much to deal with.
I do “chunks” at a time also– for the same reason. If you were to give it an entire book, the resulting advise would be overwhelming t a human.
When ChatGPT makes suggestions, it will over to give you a cleaned up version– including substituting “em-dashes” for the regular ones. You can tell it what changes you accept and which you don’t want to accept.
For example: in style, it once suggested I’d been a bit redundant. I told it in this case, I wanted that.
You could probably use a tool that does voice to writing transcription and then feed that to chat GPT. But I don’t think there is any voice recognition in ChatGPT. There isn’t in the free version as far as I can tell. But then, I haven’t looked!
It could be useful if you want to put together family stories for some kid!
thank you I’m gonna give it a try
i’ll probably try voice typing into Apple pages my shaky old fingers don’t work so good on the keyboard
Hi Russell,
I think in my case it’s digital dyslexia. I know the right signals go down to my hands but the fingers mix them up.
It makes me wonder if there actually is such an affliction.
Hi Lucia & all.
Just wondered what you all thought about the Trump v BBC spat.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bbc-accused-of-misleading-after-whistleblower-says-broadcaster-spliced-trump-speech/ar-AA1POJYg
dougie,
What’s there to think? The BBC screwed the pooch. Trump is an politician who will make hay. He’ll do it even if his attention might be “better” spent elsewhere.
What do you think?
Lucia,
“The BBC screwed the pooch.”
I think ‘shit the bed’ more accurately describes the consequences for the BBC.
John ferguson,
Here is a cheap gas thermostat that might work on a turkey fryer: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F18FL537/ref=sspa_mw_detail_5?ie=UTF8&psc=1&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9waG9uZV9kZXRhaWw
Donno if it would be suitable for propane, but probably if you set the propane supply pressure down to compensate for the difference in heat per cubic foot (relative to natural gas).
HI SteveF
In our continuing effort not to screw this up, I discovered that the lid is NOT to be on the cooker while the turkey is being abused which is what we did last year and which prevented the analog thermometer from being stuck in the bird from time to time for easy monitoring.
Somehow, this whole effort reminds me of a cargo cult operation after the war where the pacific islanders built airstrips with “airplanes made of reeds” and similar buildings, etc in the hopes that John Frum would return and bring with him the wonderful economy they’d enjoyed in 1944-45.
in other words, the idea might be sound but the execution isn’t quite right.
A similar memory was sitting on the third floor porch of friends in near north side chicago on a very hot day where the kids in the projects opened the hydrants to cool off and reduced the system’s pressure enough so water did not reach the second floor. Guy next door spent the afternoon with a hose connected at a sill cock on first floor in an attempt to convey water up to the second floor. He was persistent and apparently thought that it woujld work if there were no bends, or loops or anything else. He kept at it for about an hour and then gave up.
Evil people that we were, four engineers and me, the architect decided to let this continue to see what else he’d try. I don’t know whether he was ever enlightened on the problem.
So someone who actually knows how to fry a turkey might watch us with similar amazement.
John Ferguson,
I one stayed at an ancient 20 story hotel in Sao Paulo, called the Pampas Palace. In the morning when people started taking showers, there would not be enough water pressure to reach the upper 10 floors, meaning people in the shower on the upper floors were routinely deprived of water, while covered with soap or their head covered with shampoo. I was one of the victims. At 8:00 AM there was a group of angry guests at the front desk screaming about having to pour cold water bottles from the refrigerator over themselves just to get dressed. There was, no surprise, an armed security guard standing next to the front desk. I asked him how often this nightmare happened: “Every weekday morning.” Never stayed there again.
Wow SteveF.
Odd that they didn’t have a water tank on the roof as one so frequently sees in SA. And now solar heaters as well.
Trump orders everybody on SNAP must reapply to the program after massive fraud was revealed.
“BREAKING: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to OVERHAUL entire SNAP program after major fraud exposed
– 186,000 dead people receiving benefits
– 500,000 recipients are getting double benefits”
Full breakdown from Gemini:
https://gemini.google.com/share/c9598a1ef053
John,
Maybe they had a tank but it was undersized so water in the tank ended up depleted? I mean…. if the pressure in the supply line ground level is too low, water for the showers at the top level are going to be supplied by the water tank on the roof. That will drain the tank on the roof.
Fire safety people usually worry about this stuff. But the tank used for emergencies like fires better not be emptied by people taking showers!
Russ,
Some amount of fraud is inevitable. There always will be when someone can get free stuff from the government. A policy of reapplying should have already existed. I wonder if it didn’t?
Unfortunately, at least some people getting SNAP have real need and their need is legitimate. These people are mixed in with people who obtain the benefit through blantant fraud. Fixing this is going to cause pain for some people who are honestly in need. Then there will be the people who are kinda-sorta in need. There are always edge cases.
Lucia, Your post:
“Unfortunately, at least some people getting SNAP have real need and their need is legitimate.”
I agree 100%. But this program is notorious for fraud. If we want to keep the program viable, and not have the evil Republicans defund it, It needs to be put on a more honest basis.
In fact I don’t think anyone begrudges truly needy American citizens from getting food.
I saw a recent post from a black man. It was a video. He has a lady friend who uses her $1,100 iPhone to check on her Snap benefits.
EDIT: I mean nutritious food; not junk food and sugar sodas.
The main point is that em dashes are not on a keyboard and the majority of people who aren’t English or journalism majors didn’t even know they existed until recently.
Finding an em dash in a social media post is a red flag that AI was involved, either just casual editing/review or straight out copy / pasting and implying it is your own thinking.
Nobody claimed it is a certainty, but for v1.0 AI it is a tell. Ironically the lack of grammar errors / style changes or spelling mistakes is now another tell. Also a certain “feel” of sentence style is an AI tell.
The only potential sin here is people copy / pasting AI content as their own thinking and effectively becoming AI trolls to disrupt a conversation between flawed humans which might instead be much more interesting than having our AI overlords inject their thinking.
As long as people quote the AI properly there isn’t a problem. There was pretty naive thinking early on that AI would resolve some cultural issues. It has nothing to say on the morals of abortion IMO.
I don’t read the BBC that much but see it as having a typical European bias regarding an expansive welfare state, dislike of Russia, pro-EU, and a predictable hostile view of Israel that is pretty close to antisemitism.
However I think the best way to describe their bias is closer to metropolitan / globalist than a left / right US partition. Climate / trans / etc. are very one sided.
This is all fine except for the fact that the BBC charges all TV viewers >$200 a year for the privilege of getting lectured to from a predictable viewpoint.
It is not the clumsy Trump edits per se that are the problem, it was the BBC’s reaction to them and who came running to defend the BBC and who did not. The BBC has been captured by the EU metropolitan viewpoint and they will either fix this or eventually get defunded similar to NPR / PBS. The ball is in their court.
Russell,
I agree that fraud needs to be eliminated if we are to afford the program. That means there must be constant checking and that needs to continue even after it is initiated. I have no idea what sort of checking was done in the past. If fraud was rampant, clearly the type and frequency of checking was insufficient.
I think that the phrasing change from “starvation” to “food insecurity” shows that food supply is not an issue almost everywhere in the world now. The agriculture industry is an unsung hero.
It became embarrassing in the usual activist poverty documentaries that a lot of people showcased in the US were overweight. I’m not against SNAP but don’t overstate the case as life or death.
Free school lunch and breakfast for the kids was a great idea. This program works for both poverty and incompetent parenting.
Tom
Well both are problems. The fact that the clumsy edits were recognized as existing by their ethics committee who let them through is a big problem. And then the fact that when caught, people justify this for a news agency.
I mean… for some “(loosely) based on history” movie 200 years from now? Not fair– but loosely based on history fiction does that sort of thing all the time. Historians might then discuss the accuracy– but loosely based on history novels are… notoriously lax in their historical rigor. happens.
The BBC claims to be news– and claims to do a good job. They. Did. Not. And the failed on news that is politically important. This wasn’t a human interest story or some other amusing anecdote sort of thing.
Tom
Yes. Even handing needy kids a fairly generous box dinner might be helpful — like about 500-700 calories which according to google is typical for a grown man. The kids could chose from several balanced meals– sort of like at the grocery store. Kids might trade dinners, but you know your are getting 1 dinner to 1 kid. It’s hard for professional fraudsters to do much with that system.
And a really hungry the kid could eat some or all of the food on the way home.
Tom,
I wouldn’t say this has been settled, nor would I say the thinking was entirely naive. LLMs put limits to the postmodern idea that the meaning of text is subjective and constructed by the reader. Obviously, it remains true that the reader participates to some extent (read Wolfgang Iser). This has cultural implications for sure and it’s about darn time as far as I am concerned!
I suspect Lucia has realized this as well although I don’t know if she’d articulate it the same way I do. But she will occasionally post “what an LLM makes of these words..” because (I suspect) she realizes that the implications of LLM comprehension involve a certain amount of objectivity of meaning in language.
I know, always banging my same darn drum, right. Shrug.
Mark
I would never say ” (read Wolfgang Iser)” because I’ve never heard of him. 🙂
I do think ChatGPT does sort of put limits on post modern thinking that the meaning of text is subjective. Sure, there can be some subjectivity. And people can be unclear. But….ehrmm…
Yes. Some people would like the meaning of entire paragraphs to be utterly elastic. But.. no… Language doesn’t allow that. If it has meaning, there is some constraint on what entire paragraphs can mean.
Single isolated sentences? Sure. There full meaning might require context. Individual words? Sure. Sometimes.
If you asked an AI what is the proper moral balancing between pro-life and pro-choice it is going to regurgitate its training set. A training set produced by Tehran Silicon Valley will have different views on LGTBQ.
The naivety was a simplistic belief that AI would be able to adjudicate these type of issues with grand wisdom. The answer might as well be 42. A properly trained AI should be able to fairly articulate the positions though.
Lucia,
Good, I wasn’t off in the weeds on that. I’d add that it’s not important whether we accept the LLMs as authoritative or not on questions; that isn’t the point. The point is simply that something trained by following a matrix weighting algorithm over a large body of text delivers an apparent mapping of text to meaning to back to text that is comprehensible and intuitive to us. It’s nothing less than a bloody miracle when you get right down to it, that it works AT ALL. There is essentially no way this could work without there being a strong element of objectivity about these mappings.
Tom,
There’s more to it than just ‘make a moral evaluation for me’. I agree with you that AI’s don’t usually come up with anything worth hearing when prompted that way. But that’s not the only way to skin the cat, so to speak.
But again,
I’ve had what I consider to be some pretty good philosophical conversations with Gemini. It can adjudicate complex, nuanced, philosophical questions pretty well. If you treat it as a technical problem instead of a value problem it does best; I.E. what would Daniel Dennett say about this, does his argument refute the argument made by Searle in this context, etc. I wouldn’t dismiss it as quickly as all that.
BBC Newsnight did a very similar Trump edit in 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgKjMJd4EJ0
A live on air reaction to that very explicitly said “Your video actually spliced together the presentation … ” and specifies exactly the problem with it. Nothing was done and they effectively did the same thing two years later … and did nothing.
Good luck defending this BBC. I don’t think this is worth much actual compensation but the BBC is guilty and their reputation is properly tarnished.
The overall feeling is these people believe because Trump is so bad that it’s OK to use unethical tactics against him.
Hi Lucia, thanks for your reply November 15, 2025 at 9:18 pm.
As a UK resident who pays the BBC TV licence fee £174.50 per/yr just to watch any channel, I find it deplorable that a (trusted) UK news outfit which boasts of it’s unbiased/fighting mis/disinformation could stoop so low.
It’s big news in the UK since the “splice” vids (2 now) were exposed, so I just wondered what thoughts you & others in US had, if any.
dougie,
I am outraged that anyone, certainly not anyone here, would think it was ok for them to do the splices. I think what he actually said in the talk prior to the excursion to the capitol was sufficiently revealing that Trump expected that those who went on would witness Congress rejecting the recorded votes because some of them had in effect been stolen, throw out the result and follow with his election by the house and senate.
But I think BBC and all thought that too hard to explain and possibly nuts.
finally, Russell, the turkey fry went spendidly although we did have some trouble with the propane tank which hadn’t been used since last November and didn’t seem to pass gas well enough. We weren’t able to get to 350, but 320 seems to have done the job.
As our brothers are won’t to say, “Next year in Jeusalem.”
or at least next year in St. Pete.
john ferguson,
Many houses and small apartment buildings in Brazil do in fact have rooftop water tanks to ensure supply when demand is high. But it seems few larger hotels go that route. I checked: the Pampas Palace is still (remarkably enough) still in business. Maybe they invested in pumps of adequate size and/or put flow limiting orifices in the showers. It was old 20+ years ago; today it must be ancient. Interesting architecture though: the whole thing is a concrete tube with a large central opening from the roof to the lobby, and rooms arranged around the outside, with corridors that overlook the abyss….. kind of made my stomach churn to peek down to the lobby from 150 ft up!
Way to go, John!
I’ve been ranting forever that the House hasn’t done a proper job of budgeting in a generation. Perhaps things will change this time around, but I doubt it.
Speaker Johnson:
“Good news for every American taxpayer: regular order is FINALLY being restored.
That means greater transparency, fiscal discipline, and responsibility over taxpayer dollars.
For the FIRST TIME in years, Congress is actually doing the work the way the system was designed — writing, debating, and passing individual appropriations bills — so that proper stewardship is returned.”
on Fox News
Mark
Agreed.
Mark
That’s my view also. I mean, you can get a conversation started that way. And you can then hone in on things. I have found ChatGPT will return to repeating some things that are very heavily in it’s training data even if you have a discussion to “show it” that what the training data mantra doesn’t really “make sense”.
dougie
I agree with you the BBC was deplorable! The BBC, which claims to be a news agency, literally created “fake news”.
Obviously, since we here aren’t required to pay for the BBC, it doesn’t sting as badly. But I think people are going to respond to some claims with, “Oh? Where’d you read that? The BBC? LOL!”
Lucia – The BBC have been making a big push to expand NEWS in the US, under the “most trusted news” mantra. Lets see how that pans out. I hope they are punished with LOL!
ps – latest on – https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-v-the-bbc-what-are-the-hurdles-for-presidents-legal-argument/ar-AA1QfQ1h?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Just 1 partial quote which I find strange –
“But experts on US media and defamation law say the president faces significant obstacles to winning such enormous damages from a lawsuit against the BBC, partly due to strong US press freedom laws.”
The article then goes on to argue for both sides!!!
dougie,
In the US, defamation is harder to win for plaintiff. But also “public figure” plaintiffs have an even more difficult time winning defamation lawsuits. There is a precedent called “NY Times v. Sullivan” that set the standard for public figures to win– especially when the defamation related to a matter of public interest.
But I imagine Trump might be able to win this one. Because there is no way that editing is just some sort of slip up, or the BBC can argue that they somehow “didn’t know”.
Is Trump threatening suiing in the US? Or England? If it’s in England, British laws apply. My understanding is it’s easier for plantiffs to win in England.
dougie,
This is the standard
But…. seriously, they created something knowing that video is effectively “false”. He didn’t say that paragraph. They had to have the full video to create it. It’s hard to see how that doesn’t meet the legal standard of ‘actual malice’.
The thing is– was Trump harmed? I think he might have been. We’ll have to read what his side claims.
Statute of limitations has expired for UK. Trump must sue in US and has hinted it will be in FL if he does.
I think Trump can clear the reckless disregard for the truth barrier but will not be able to claim much in actual damages. It wasn’t broadcast in the US, he won anyway, etc. It’s mostly just a political exercise to damage the BBC and drive liberals crazy.
What Trump might get from internal communications at the BBC through discovery might drive them to settle.
The BBC has removed access to the documentary and a couple executives got mandatory voluntary resignment.
I doubt Trump will get anything more than an apology from the BBC, because the program in question (Panorama) did not ever air in the USA; it is only available in the UK. Had it aired in the USA, the BBC would be in some trouble.
Yes, there was rather obvious ‘actual malice’ in the editing of the video, but without demonstrable harm, monetary damages seem unlikely. The case against CBS for editing Kamala Harris’s interview to hide a bizarre word-salad answer from voters before the 2024 election was far more harmful to Trump.
Tom Sharf,
Cross posted. But yes, hard to see damages.
Steve,
Yes. CBS cleaning up Harris’s tapes was more harmful to Trump. However cleaning up Harris word salad didn’t defame Trump.
Trump threatening to sue BBC has elevated the story and caused the BBC a lot more embarrassment. I don’t know enough about UK politics to know whether this could endanger BBC’s funding.
lucia,
Yes, no defamation against Trump. But licensed broadcasters are still subjected to rules about willful misrepresentation of facts in news reporting. And that was a willful misrepresentation.
And I agree that Trump threatening the BBC made the situation for the BBC far worse. I doubt their funding will be pulled, but I don’t doubt they will be more careful in how they cover conservative British politicians. That could put funding at risk when conservatives have a majority in parliament.
The thing about the BBC’s creative making of fake news is that what they did wrong is so easy to understand. I mean…
“I start my sentences [cut 54 minutes] end a different sentences.” And they make that look like a single sentence in a video. It’s 54 minutes.
People just play the real video and the audience can very easily see just how misleading the BBC was. I’d say no one can think that’s legitimate journalism… but of course, this is about Trump. So someone will claim it’s fair.
But no: if you can make the case for your story, make the case using true facts and real video.
Video of a tweet storm between Tyrus of Fox News and President Trump at 2:30 AM. It’s hilarious (and vulgar):
https://x.com/Girlpatriot1974/status/1989775016251330763?s=20
Florida has good governance.
Governor DeSantis has been pushing insurance rate reductions for Florida.
From ChatGPT:
“Florida’s top five auto insurers have filed for average rate reductions of around 6–6.5% for 2025.
For homeowners, there are reported average reductions of about 5.6%.”
Why:
“Litigation reform: Florida passed a series of reforms (in 2022–2023) that curtailed litigation related to insurance claims, especially surrounding assignment of benefits (AOB) abuse and one-way attorney fees.”
ChatGPT link:
https://chatgpt.com/share/691b2962-0570-8005-b5d8-7ac0a70afcb3
NOTE: I used ChatGPT to edit the above text any comments?
Russell,
Did you find it useful? I am liking using ChatGPT for that– but I don’t use it in comments. I didn’t use it for this post, but I did do it for the previous one.
If you write the thing yourself, and you’ve “spoken” with it a lot, I find it tends to be pretty “voice preserving”. That means, you still sound like you.
Lucia,
Yes, It worked well. I have difficulty with my shaky fingers when I type so I have been using voice input for my text writing. When finished that needs quite a bit of cleanup ChatGPT handled it.
I may experiment with dictating right into ChatGPT next.
Lucia, I had a discussion with ChatGPT regarding refining my dictation and some test samples. I’ve included a copy of our exchange below.
https://chatgpt.com/share/691b409d-ce38-8005-8b4c-2c7fbf2dea02
Lucia, I put Gemini through its paces by having it revise some of my dictated text, and it worked out really well! I think it might have done an even better job than ChatGPT. Here’s a copy of our chat.
https://gemini.google.com/app/2926d9daf1c5fcf0?is_sa=1&is_sa=1&android-min-version=301356232&ios-min-version=322.0&campaign_id=skws&utm_source=sem&utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid-media&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=skws&utm_campaign=2024enUS_gemfeb&pt=9008&mt=8&ct=p-growth-sem-skws&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22326675744&gbraid=0AAAAApk5Bhkg6uRJFgS9ZTrEoF5QzlOnk&gclid=CjwKCAjw-svEBhB6EiwAEzSdrr99dQengXuD7ocdDeP3ddghzWrF5V687OHFuylm53XuB42HfP_nGBoCYgIQAvD_BwE
I’m guessing the people who made the edits over there didn’t actually watch the entire speech, I never watched it as I can’t stand watching politicians talk. They likely picked up an edit from somewhere else and went with it. The fact checkers then failed by not even checking a transcript. Nobody wanted to know the accurate story, the same thing that happened in the US and with Trump Russia Collusion. Narrative first and foremost. The weak denials just further the bias charge.
None of them watch alternate news sources to know the other side of the story. Even when presented with the facts of the edit they get all squirrely with a “Trump is bad so it doesn’t matter” equivocations. Trump’s superpower at work again.
If the BBC cares about audience trust then they will make changes even if the internal partisans are in denial. Journalism teaching students to be activists has caused generational damage to the product, a huge mistake.
Just an opinion.
My personal opinion is that I prefer messy direct input versus an AI cleanup. If you are talking to someone directly would you really like it to be cleaned up first? Remove that Southern accent! I think some meaning might get lost.
An imperfect analogy is how Trump succeeded by talking bluntly and directly to the electorate versus AI political speech.
Formal speech is another matter although I am on the fence for that as well.
Tom,
An edit … from where? The intertubes? And not get a copy of the original video? Not check how long Trump spoke for. I mean…. 54 minutes!!
A highschool teacher should ding a student doing a “research” article and not verifying the source!
Sure. But that’s flagrant disregard for the truth.
If Trump sues it will be interesting to hear what we learn form discovery. I mean, for a news agency, this is seriously slip shod. Sure, I also don’t want full speeches– especially not that one. But… fact checker? The should watch the full video and hone in on that part. Then notice that it’s spliced… and then even if they hate speeches, see how much has been cut to create that.
If he is, they shouldn’t need to splice and make up “fake news”. They should just do a little more work and find the bad string of text that he actually uttered.
Tom,
Well… it’s nice to clean up grammar and spelling. And chatGPT does it more “nicely” than Word. It will even explain.
You can tell it to keep stuff. I felt it was a “good” copy editor. It lets me go back to putting commas where I like! Copy editors at PNNL were trained to hate ‘excess’ commas. So I then got in the habit of leaving optional ones out.
But sometimes, they are nice for flow!
As opposed to
But sometimes they are nice for flow!
Technically that comma was not “necessary” and some copy editors have a horror of any “extra” stuff. But… sorry charlie. Sometimes extra commas are nice.
Copy / paste partisan edit from the intertubes or from previous New Night broadcast. Fact checkers then mindlessly verify it was from the actual speech and don’t worry about the timing of the edits, that’s editor discretion.
That’s the best case scenario for the BBC and it’s pretty bad. It just gets worse from there.
They would explain the edit if they were being transparent, it is an obvious question. That they went radio silent likely means explaining the details is seen as more damaging.
The rest of the media being rather incurious about the details and explicit intent of the edit and not pressing the matter is also telling.
In my travels over the past 2 or 3 decades, I’ve noted Brits I’ve encountered are the most skeptical of the BBC’s “news” so I’m a bit surprised that so many Brits are now shocked and surprised that the Beeb would blatantly edit video that way.
I don’t think Trump is going to get any monetary damages, much less $1 Billion but he usually throws these numbers out for shock effect anyway. The main goal should be to shock that organization into sensibility — or at least be more subtle and judicious in their misrepresentations.
The edits in these 2 cases (that we know about so far) were blatant and amateurish. It’s almost like the Beeb thinks no one will bother checking them on anything because “they’re the Beeb.” In the American press, both the New York Times and the Washington Post suffer from similar delusions.
Russell Klier,
I made some of the best looking demi-baguettes I’ve ever made from the 75% hydration recipe. It being nearly winter here and you being in Florida may mean the water content of your flour is significantly higher than mine, though. I still can’t do a proper slash. I get expansion, but no ear. I’m too tentative with the razor and don’t cut deeply enough.
Apparently it’s possible to over knead bread dough in a stand mixer. I’ve been using a speed setting that was too high, 4 insted of 2 with a KitchenAid K5A and a spiral dough hook. But it didn’t hurt this last batch much, if at all.
Is there a music streaming service that uses lossless compression? I’m convinced that the resurgence of vinyl is a direct result of mp3 overcompression.
I’ve started buying music CD’s again while they’re still available, so far just classical. This is partly because I seriously upgraded my sound system and it finally sounds like I wanted to hear when I started building Heathkit amps and preamps in High School. If this is your thing and you have the money, I highly recommend the SVS Ultra Evolution Pinnacle towers with big SVS subwoofers. Dirac Live room compensation with bass control may also have something to do with it.
I can now cleanly hear the pedal tones in Bach’s Passacaglia & Fugue in C Minor, the low E(?) in the overture to Wagner’s Das Rheingold and the bass violin subharmonics in just about any orchestral piece. Paul Simon’s Graceland album was a revelation.
Tidal apparently can do lossless. Spotify also offers a lossless plan.
Audio enthusiasts can go a little crazy. LP’s are not better than CD’s … sacrilege! Just make sure and use your $100 / foot cables!
I don’t know of anybody who can tell the difference between lossless and >128K MP3. But if you want it then it still takes less bandwidth than a YouTube video so you should be able to get it.
I’m still running a monster SVS PB12-Plus-2 I bought in 2005. I use that 99.5% for home theater though.
I listen to music with headphones or some KEF LSX on my computer desktop that I paired with a smallish SVS SB-1000 subwoofer.
I get a lot of awesome subtlety from AC/DC’s Highway to Hell, ha ha.
I’m pretty sure I’m going deaf and I can’t personally appreciate the quality distinctions anymore, more’s the pity.
Well… I’m not going deaf. My hearing has deteriorated over time. Hard use I guess, I was never particularly careful around noise sources loud enough to cause permanent damage.
Lucia,
“ An edit … from where? The intertubes?l
Yes, I remember seeing that exact edit shortly after Trump delivered his speech years ago.
That doesn’t absolve them from getting it wrong, but it may explain where it came from, but maybe not.
Mark,
“ I can’t personally appreciate the quality distinctions anymore, more’s the pity”
bone connection headsets can give you back your music ear.
They work by vibrations into your cheek bones and bypass your eardrum.
I was amazed at how I appreciated music again when I started using them.
and their cheap
DeWitt,
nice work!
“ it’s possible to over knead bread dough in a stand mixer.”
yes, it’s the reason I went to the stretch and fold and retarded rise method. I couldn’t get the knead right
DeWitt,
“Is there a music streaming service that uses lossless compression?”
Seems like there are several, though some a re far from cheap:
https://www.pcmag.com/picks/here-are-the-best-places-to-stream-hi-res-audio-online
Tom Scharf,
Only $100/ft, cheapskate. And you need to orient your speakers to the millimeter and fraction of a degree, completely ignoring how much your head moves. Maybe you’re supposed to have a head clamp like they used when photograph exposure times were measured in lots of seconds. *sigh*
Room correction will also compensate for any high frequency rolloff caused by capacitance in zip cord. Or you could just use individual wires.
I’ve only ever seen one blind test published. It was comparing amplifiers. No statistically significant difference even with so-called golden ears when the amplifiers were not overdriven.
I bought an SVS PB-16 on closeout when they introduced the 17 series. Bringing it into the house by myself was tricky. It weighs 200 lbs.
Most digital music is recorded at 44 KHz and sometimes 48 Khz / 96 KHz. This bandwidth was chosen because it is the approx. bandwidth of master tapes used in the music industry in the stone age which was derived from human hearing ability.
Some people claim they can hear the difference between formats but generally don’t do well in blind listening tests. Some people swear by vacuum tube amplifiers. Whatever floats your boat. I always wanted one of those old McIntosh’s.
My subwoofer was 150 lbs and getting it up on a plant shelf was a health hazard. As they say in the auto industry, there is no replacement for displacement. I’m sure the PB-16 can shake the neighborhood.
I think room acoustics are a huge deal and room correction software built into an amplifier does try to solve that with some success. My room has a serious 60 Hz resonance that was basically impossible to solve. A frequency sweep tone that you can now just play from Spotify made it very obvious. With my windows and tile floors you get so much reflection and echo that no amount of audio tech will fix it. I just do the best I can and live with it.
Music on my desktop is far superior but is one person only.
Back in the 70’s / 80’s music listening was a group social thing and your audio system was a status symbol. A lot of paper route money went into my system. I think those days are gone.
Tom Scharf,
A friend of mine has the big McIntosh tube amp with the big Klipsch corner speakers. All those glowing tubes are quite a sight. My understanding is that the difference between tube and solid state amps is that tube amps soft clip, generating mostly even order harmonics while solid state hard clips and gives odd order harmonics. But you can’t hear that unless you overdrive the amp.
Speaking of clipping, I have the bad TelArc CD of the1812 Overture where some of the cannon shots are clipped. Until I put the wav file into an editor and saw the flat tops, I didn’t understand why my tweeter fuses in my old Magneplanars always blew when I played it. I had the vinyl record, but it was nearly impossible to play without the stylus jumping out of the track. Now that’s a piece that would probably benefit from higher than 16 bit depth.
Russell Klier,
Wet doughs generally require stretch and fold kneading even after machine mixing. For one thing, when the wet dough sticks to the bowl, you aren’t doing much actual kneading. And retarded fermentation improves flavor and color as well as developing gluten. The yeast nearly stops metabolic activity at lower temperature, but the enzymes keep hydrolyzing starches to sugars at a slower rate.
A number of commenters above expressed skepticism that Trump might be able to collect damages from the BBC. They made good points, but overlooked something: The possibility of punitive damages. The BBC’s behavior might well have been sufficiently egregious to justify the award of punitive damages. And since they have deep pockets, the award could be large.
Suing in rural Florida, as was done successfully against CNN, might make the BBC a bit nervous.
Mike M,
Punitive damages are usually some multiple of actual damages.
Lossless starting with what?
I’ve been messing with 192/24 wave files purchased and downloaded from Tail of the Dragon in UK. I can play these more or less directly from a RasberryPi 4 with a Hi-Fi Berry DAC Pro to my Dad’s old Nakamichi TA-4 and thence to two B&O S80.2’s.
My preferences run to Classical and older jazz but with small groups, quartets preferably because they play realistically in our living room. I’ve got a couple of head-sets too, but prefer the speakers.
I’m also recording them to Maxell XLII-S 90 cassettes on a Braun C3 (3 head) w/Dolby C using the 1 7/8 ips speed via a Scarlett 2I2 DAC. For those who hadn’t already grokked it, I’m crazy, crazy enough to own 10 reasonably serious decks, ah, er. maybe not the Denons.
This is more of an experiment to see how good this can be, but with my setup it’s really easy to play cassettes. And I suppose like Russell, the decline in my hearing makes hiss much less of an issue than it used to be.
The B&Os were gifts from B&O when their then Chicago Office/Warehouse was completed in1984. They’ve held up well as have the AR-2’s at the shop which are terminally ugly having been studio monitors at one time and painted with latex paint to match some interior decoration scheme which must really have been awful. They were cheap.
Maxell XLII. I was using those in 1978. Cassette tape hiss, boo. I know Dolby was supposed to move the audio to places outside of tape hiss range but it never seemed clean to me.
I did save countless dollars pirating albums with my tape deck though.
I finally gave in and started streaming audio with Spotify. It’s just too convenient as a tape deck doesn’t fit in my pocket, maybe a Walkman. Song radio (aka auto jukebox) was the killer function for Spotify.
Don’t forget to clean and demagnetize your heads. Too bad DAT never took off.
Seems now that Trump realizes the House will bypass leadership and bring a bill to the floor that forces release of all Epstein case files, he has decided they should all be released. I think Trump really misread his “base” on this.
Beyond a little embarrassment, it is unlikely there will be much impact on Trump. Others? Could be really bad for some.
I guess we might discover why Trump didn’t release the files. It was such a big thing in his campaign.
Just want to thank Lucia & other commentators for comments/thoughts on the Trump v BBC.
This is the other time BBC did the same’ish thing in 2021/22 with pushback from Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-3549903/VIDEO-BBC-Newsnight-accused-doctoring-Donald-Trump-speech.html
Lucia,
As always, it is hard to say for sure what motivates Trump. There is no doubt some embarrassing stuff, but anything really damaging would for certain have been leaked by the Biden FBI and DOJ. I think it more likely Trump wanted to protect friends/donors/etc. I mean, if someone visited Lolita island a dozen times with Epstein (and girls!), that will not be a good look for them, even if there is not enough evidence to charge them with a crime.
Hi Tom,
the XLII’s are the choice because I inherited hundreds of them and with my decks they work pretty well.
There’s sort of a mystique with cassettes not that different from LP’s. You have to decide what you want to listen to, find it, load it, set the switches, etc and then because you’ve invested all this fuss, actually listen to it.
It’s one thing to use Glenn Gould for background music, listening carefully will catch him deebying along. I think Oscar Peterson did it too.
Tom Scharf at 3:50 pm –
Your comment “Don’t forget to clean and demagnetize your heads. Too bad DAT never took off.” caught my attention.
Like you, I have Cassette tapes copies from many albums & still have a Cassette player, but never used for years.
So clean the heads makes sense, but why “demagnetize” & how?
I wouldn’t put it beyond Trump to have been angling for the Epstein file release in the first place but appearing to hold back in order to get the Democrats to commit.
I think Hillary and Biden both would have found ways to leak the files if there was anything in them that really damaged Trump. They certainly found ways to leak or invent just about anything else.
Holding back on the files enough to make the Dems “force” him to release them has the advantages of making them spend time and effort on “the Epstein files” and then makes them look bad when there’s no there there. Think of it as the flip side of Obama’s birth certificate — people demanding the BC spent a lot of time and energy on that issue and then just looked stupid when it finally was released.
Dougie,
I haven’t listened much to the BBC in the last decade, but I have listened enough: the BBC is biased against anyone not firmly left of center…. it has been that way for decades, no matter how much they insist otherwise.
I think demagnetizing tape deck heads was mostly voodoo, something about magnetic buildup getting transferred to tapes. I remember they sold a head demagnetizer for way too much money. I’m sure it “greatly expands the soundstage” or something, ha ha.
https://a.co/d/6iJkMxP
Derek, your post:
“I wouldn’t put it beyond Trump to have been angling for the Epstein file release in the first place but appearing to hold back in order to get the Democrats to commit.”
I agree 100%. There have been signs, going way back, that Trump broke with Epstein early on and even turned him in to the authorities. I think Trump has been playing this all along—letting Democrats build up expectations, only for there to be nothing there in the end. He’s good at that game.
I note that a whole lot of files have already been released. And some, like grand jury testimony, can not be released.
It is possible that Trump was doing a Br’er Rabbit with the Epstein files. Maybe there are files that are damaging to Dems and that it would be improper to release. Now he will have the cover of “Congress made me do it”. I think that unlikely.
I doubt there is much of anything very significant in the remaining files. But there probably is a lot that could be used to smear a lot of people by association. So maybe Trump did not want to release them because of his innate sense of fair play. 🙂
The end result will likely be that the people who were disappointed with the earlier release will still be disappointed. And they will still claim that there must be more. It will end up being little more than a big, unsatisfying distraction.
I think that is the reason Trump does not want to release the files. But it is a distraction anyway, so he might as well get on the “right” side of it, especially if it seems inevitable.
Trump definitely broke with Epstein years before Epstein became a felon. And later on, Epstein hated Trump. So the only “damaging” stuff about Trump will be even less significant than the silly emails just released by the Dems.
SteveF,
Oh, I agree that Biden and Co would have leaked or published anything damaging to Trump if they were aware of it.
Possibly. It will be interesting to see who.
Does the smiley face mean this is meant ironically?
I don’t especially care about the Epstein files per se. I didn’t care hugely before the election and still don’t. I expect they will contain nothing explosive. But at this point, I’m interested in seeing who they embarrass a lot.
Sometime, I think I give ChatGPT minor ruptured aneurysm.
I’m not sure about head de-magnetizing. the owner’s manuals for my Nakamichis recommend it. the TASCAM’s too. The CR-3 even came with a head demagnetizer. I think a test for whether you need it is if you run some tape without a signal and you get hum on it, you need to demagnetize the heads. I haven’t ever done it, but then I haven’t run tapes daily like some people do.
On the other hand, if you have a nuclear submarine, it does need to be demagnetized – degaussed they call it.
I don’t have a nuclear submarine.
yet.
Which raises the question “does a titanium hulled submarine need to be degaussed?”
I too am not overly interested in the Epstein matter. I am, however, interested to see if Donald Trump has been playing a long game to entrap his opponents—a political form of “rope-a-dope.” If this turns out to be the case, it will be considered a masterstroke for Trump.
[ Transcribing assist from Google Gemini]
This post wins the Internet in my feed today:
“In their world, the absence of evidence is simply more evidence of Trump’s guilt.”
Oh well better late than never I guess:
“UN Security Council approves Trump plan for Gaza security force”
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/17/gaza-security-force-un-resolution-passes
“And some, like grand jury testimony, can not be released.”
Right, and one of the reasons for that is to protect this exact scenario. If you report your political opponent is a pedophile and then pay some homeless person to be a witness then law enforcement is duty bound to investigate. The play is to then leak the fact that this person is being investigated by “authorities”. If all the investigative information was public then you can create a scandal from thin air.
After Trump Russia Collusion the public doesn’t really have much patience for an endless drip drip of non-information. Trump is a lame duck anyway. Serious media really shouldn’t be covering this, but they follow the clicks.
Russell —
I am interested in the Epstein files only to the extent that they do or do not contain information about people who knowingly participated in his pedophilia or debauchery with unwilling women.
I don’t care so much about people who associated with Epstein for debauchery with what they thought were legal age willing women and not at all about people who associated with him because of his financial contacts. Note either one of these latter conditions could apply to Bill Clinton — although there’s ample evidence that Clinton used his positions to pressure women into sexual acts, I don’t recall any evidence of him being interested in teenage girls. Twenty-somethings, yes, but actual teenagers?
It seems administrations from both sides of the aisle have been unwilling to release information from the files and this is perhaps because there are so many names in them of people who associated with him or who he was interested in associating with who weren’t part of his illicit sex ring.
I also haven’t seen a lot of evidence of Trump playing any kinds of long games, much less political long games, but he has sharp instincts and a proven history of trying to take advantage of any situation he can. The Epstein files may simply be another case of that as he observed the Democrats tying themselves in knots over something when he knows he wasn’t a participant outside of the kind of societal dinner parties one is expected to attend.
Brennan and Comey showed there were a lot of bad actors inside the government. I’m more interested in finding the other bad actors who think homo bureaucratis should act as overlords for the rest of the country.
Tom Scharf,
“Right, and one of the reasons for that is to protect this exact scenario. ”
Yes, but in this specific case, if a law is passed requiring full release, then could a court stop it? I don’t think so, since courts are duty-bound to follow clear law. (OK, that last part is a joke.)
DerekH wrote: “I am interested in the Epstein files only to the extent that they do or do not contain information about people who knowingly participated in his pedophilia or debauchery with unwilling women.”
The is no credible evidence that there are any such people. All indications are that Epstein did not share his victims. The illicit sex ring seems to have consisted of Epstein and Maxwell.
Note: Epstein was not a pedophile. His victims were under the age of consent, but were not prepubescent. I think the correct term for that is ephebophile. Not considered a sexual perversion, but still morally wrong and criminal.
Hmmm…Texas’s redistricting is blocked by a court. Texas to appeal.
https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-statement-on-redistricting-ruling
Mike M,
Yes, it is really an ‘age-of-consent’ issue.
Even if some of Epstein’s guests had sex with underaged girls, that may be very difficult to prove unless they come forward and offer credible testimony. There is near zero chance any released information about Epstein will lead to prosecutions. Of course, that doesn’t mean there won’t be some embarrassed, well known men.
I think it’s more of a “consent” than age-of-consent issue to be honest. As Mike noted, Epstein doesn’t seem to have been interested in actual children. I think Virginia Roberts (Giuffre) was technically over the age of consent at the time she alleged Epstein was trafficking her — the issue as I understood it was that she felt like she was coerced into his trafficking.
What I was trying to get at was that I’m not interested in just embarrassing people of any political party or affiliation. I am, however, interested if people knowingly engaged with Epstein to obtain non-consensual partners — and the potential for embarrassing people who were not participating in his illicit activities is a valid reason for the government to withhold publication of those files.
HaroldW,’
It would be astonishing if Texas redistricting gets quashed and California’s doesn’t.
This is a good case for the Supremes.
Derek H,
By law, someone below the age of consent is unable to give consent…. “yes” in this case doesn’t count as “yes”.
I think the SC has said gerrymandering is pretty much up to the states and they aren’t going to participate in oversight except when it becomes a racial gerrymander or other constitutionally prohibited actions.
Gemini says grand jury testimony cannot be released even with a vote by Congress because that authority belongs to the judicial branch.
“There are no exceptions written in this rule that say “unless Congress votes to release it.””
They can petition the judicial branch for a release under some exception conditions but Congress cannot compel it.
I am not sure Gemini is correct regarding grand jury testimony. The Rules Enabling Act (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_Enabling_Act) allows the judiciary to set rules or procedure, but what Congress has given, Congress can take away. And Congress has modified rules set by the Supreme Court.
But it might be that to retroactively permit the release of grand jury testimony would amount to an ex post facto law.
John Ferguson,
I agree that it would be bizarre if the TX redistricting is reversed, and the CA redistricting — in direct response to TX — stands. But it’s all about the courts. The CA redistricting has been challenged on the same grounds, i.e. illegal racial gerrymandering.
It’s very strange (and disturbing to me) to see politicians proudly backing gerrymandering as policy, and not just hidden in the proverbial smoke-filled back rooms. “This is all fine, we understand that persons of specific races, sexes, etc. should not be disenfranchised…but persons of [insert party here], they’re fair game.”
It might be I’m just a duh. I have honestly never understood what would actually be fair and *not* gerrymandering. Flat geographic arrangements seem unfair sometimes. Arbitrary arrangements that give some minority group leverage seem unfair sometimes. So on.
If somebody has read the codex of all human wisdom and remembers the relevant passage on drawing district lines fairly I’d be pleased to hear what it said.
Hey Lucia – I’m hoping to see you offer lame excuses for Trump attacking the reporter for asking questions about Kheshoggi’s murder. Or maybe if you won’t, you could ask some of your denizens to do it? My money is on a “But Obama” or a “but the loony left” response, but maybe someone can come up with something a little less banal?
.
TIA
And I hope to some day win a huge jackpot in the lotto. But I’m a big girl and know that sometimes I don’t get what I hope for. –lucia
Tom Scharf,
Congress can dissolve all federal courts save for the Supreme Court, and pack the Supreme Court if it so chooses. They can compel whatever they want from the courts. Not saying they will, but do have the constitutional authority.
Harold W,
“This is all fine, we understand that persons of specific races, sexes, etc. should not be disenfranchised…but persons of [insert party here], they’re fair game.”
Many voters in states where one party dominates are effectively disenfranchised. Massachusetts has 30-odd% Republicans and not a single seat in Congress. Brutal gerrymandering is the rule in just about every state, unless the state has only one seat in the House. If Texas succeeds in their gerrymander, their House delegation will STILL be more fair to Dems than California’s delegation is to Republicans today, before Newsom’s retaliatory gerrymander.
I believe SC is going to strike as unconstitutional the absurd interpretation of the Voting Rights Act which guarantees African Americans (essentially Democrats) will forever have districts drawn to elect African Americans, while everywhere else the minority party gets gerrymandered almost out of existence.
MikeM
I don’t see congress changing the law to allowing release of grand jury testimony as expost facto. The release would happen in the future. Releases done before the law was changed would be illegal. The law isn’t changing the legalities of any actions done in the past.
lucia,
But you could say much the same thing about any ex post facto law. Make something illegal. Any trials and punishment will happen in the future, even if the act took place in the past.
The question is whether people who participated in the grand jury proceedings have a right to expect continued secrecy. If they don’t, then grand jury secrecy does not mean anything.
Alea iacta est……
As of today, satellite imagery placed the USS Gerald R. Ford and its carrier strike group positioned in the southern Caribbean, just south of Puerto Rico. That places the group approximately 533 miles directly north of Caracas, Venezuela, well within the striking range of Carrier Air Wing 8 (CVW-8) embarked on the Gerald R. Ford.
Also as of today, the USS Iwo Jima and its amphibious assault group were located about 300 miles directly north of Caracas, Venezuela, placing the 2,200 U.S. Marines on board well within striking distance as well.
Russell,
your comment (alea iacta est) suggests that the US is now committed to attacking Venezuela. I don’t understand your conclusion.
Harold,
Let the die be cast…
Julius Caesar spoke these words when he led his legions across the River Rubicon into Italy in 49 BC, defying the direct orders of the Roman Senate. He knew it meant war.
There is a parallel to our current situation:
Trump directed the USS Ford to cross the Atlantic Ocean.
And Trump, like Caesar, is a man of action and true to his word.
But time will tell, Harold—time will tell.
Axios:
“The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, U.S. and Russian officials tell Axios.”
Looks like Trump is leaving Zelensky out of the action again.
Details:
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff
HaroldW
Were the courts to quash the Texas gerrymander, it would be very impressive if California recognized that the provokation was moot and leave their districting alone.
A very public exerciose of integrity would be very welcome, at least to me.
John,
Newsome did not re-gerrymander CA because of the Texas gerrymander. He just used Texas as an excuse.
If the Texas gerrymander goes down and the California one stands, then Trump and the Republicans will have scored a spectacular own goal.
Mike.
Newsome has not yet re-districted as far as i know. And yes, I agree that Texas was an excuse, but there’s no evidence he’d even thought of doing it before the Texas example. California used to be proud of what they liked to think was a non-partisan redistricting method.
My point was that if the Texas effort is quashed and Newsome decides not to go ahead, as unlikely as that might seem, it would be a remarkable outbreak of integrity on his part.
Interesting as a note to the folks who suppose Trump court appointees to be toadys.
this one won my Internet today:
“Can’t help but notice that since it was renamed the Gulf of America, hurricanes have decided not to mess with it.”
NOTE: for the first time in 10 years, the US had no landfalling hurricanes this season
Suffice it to say that this vote by Congress does not allow grand jury testimony to be released. Future thermonuclear war between government branches might yield different results.
As long as both sides gerrymander equally then all is fair at the top level. It’s hard to get very excited about it.
Lots of minority political positions beyond red / blue are gerrymandered out of existence. It’s a fundamental problem with representative government.
Trump is likely saber rattling, I suspect the leak about CIA plans in Venezuela was intentional. Trump likes his drama with his fellow South American crime lords.
John,
The California redistricting is a done deal, unless the courts block it.
My thinking has changed somewhat regarding Venezuela. I think Trump wants Maduro gone. I think Trump hasn’t established yet how this will happen (CIA action, diplomacy, military strikes, what have you) and essentially this question of how it will happen is still in play. But personally I still think he wants Maduro gone, if he can figure out how to get it done at a cost he can accept.
[I should add, Trump being Trump, if he can’t get it done at a cost he’s willing to accept, he’ll just shrug it off and it won’t get done. Similar to Ukraine I think.]
mark,
I think you have that exactly right. I would add that I think that Plan A is to convince Maduro that he is done and arrange for some country to take him as an exile. So Trump gets Maduro out of power and Maduro gets to live.
Mike M.
You are correct about 2025 redistricting.
Mike,
Agreed. Trump strikes me as extremely practical that way.
Mark Bofill,
” I think Trump wants Maduro gone.”
For sure, and so do a lot of other people. But I agree, it is more likely the cost of achieving that outcome is above what Trump is willing to pay, so Maduro will likely stay in power in the near future.
Maduro is unlikely to get pushed out by Venezuelans, because 8 million or so opposed to Maduro, with some way to leave, have migrated elsewhere…. the remaining population is now only 29 million.
SteveF,
Shrug.
Probably the Ford is just pressure. I expect Trump to find something in Venezuela for those airplanes and missiles to destroy, to make the point plain for Maduro, but I don’t strongly disagree with the general skepticism about Trump using the military to remove Maduro.
I don’t think Venezuela would be all that tough a nut to crack. I think there’d be insurgency for (essentially) forever, but I don’t really see why having that’d be any worse than the status quo. Bottom line for me, it’s already a mess there. But that’s my view. Trump doesn’t seem to like using the military if he can find another way.
Tom’s Guide just tested the latest version of Gemini and chatGPT. He ran them through a series of tests , Including coding, with Gemini winning most tests but ChatGPT winning a few.
https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/i-just-tested-gemini-3-vs-chatgpt-5-1-and-one-ai-crushed-the-competition
Sometimes these AIs are like something out of an Isaac Asimov novel. I have realized that Gemini is quite good in general, but that I have been seduced by its smooth verbal intelligence into thinking it is smarter than it actually is. Another model I have access to (GPT-OSS-120B) is not as smooth a talker. It is not as fun to gab with. It doesn’t intuitively understand what I’m after the way Gemini does. But when it comes time to solve hard technical problems, GPT-OSS outclasses Gemini like a car outrunning a bicycle. It’s really something. Gemini makes up plausible BS in answer to my obscure technical questions. GPT-OSS actually appears to be able to generate off the top of its head answers that initial checking seem to show are correct.
Just thought that was interesting and wanted to share. It’s not always the smooth talkers that get you where you want to be! The autistic engineering models aren’t sexy but good-ness, they can code.
Footnote – GPT-OSS isn’t an ‘autistic’ engineering model, but it sort of seems that way to me because it happens to be hard to interact with due to local server and IT security issues and details that really aren’t the fault of the model. But for all I know, in a good environment where the model was accessible and I didn’t have to wait for it to load all the time, and if it had access to the same history info about my queries that Gemini has access to, it might under such circumstances be a much better conversationalist. Gemini has gotten to know me and is very convenient to talk with. This other model doesn’t understand me very well and I have to work harder just to talk to it at all.
So, YMMV should you get a chance to work with a GPT-OSS:120B.
Hmm. I note that benchmarks don’t support my claims. Don’t know, maybe my use case is off the beaten path enough that the benchmarks aren’t representative. Maybe I’m crazy, but so far GPT-OSS is three for three on getting the right answers where Gemini BS’ed me in fairly arcane stuff.
There are some pretty sophisticated benchmarks and AI leaderboards out there. I’m not paying much attention to them. If an iPhone can get less stupid dictating text and autocorrect then I will call it a win someday.
Gemini Pro told me iOS 26 didn’t exist the other day, ha ha.
Just released Gemini 3 is supposed to be better with coding. I think we will see some period of leap frogging for a while before the products mature.
I find myself increasingly typing in queries to Gemini instead of Google search. This might eventually break Google’s search dominance. This is probably why they are pressing really hard to win this race.
I still think the industry will eventually start to specialize with task oriented AI’s versus these one size fits all monsters. We shall see.
Tom’s post:
“I still think the industry will eventually start to specialize with task oriented AI’s versus these one size fits all monsters.”
This is how I currently use AI in my daily activity
I use Gemini, chat PT and Grok throughout the day. I have favorites for some tasks and other tasks I use whatever is open.
I also am starting to use it in place of Google search.
Mark Bofill,
Gemini is kind of funny, and a big-time suck-up, constantly inclined to thank and you and say how wonderful your information is.
That said, it does provide useful information. I did several hours of research on how to tackle a difficult language migration of a program that has 22,000 lines of source code. Gemini produced recommendations that were at least as good as I got from my own research, but after only 5 minutes of discussing the details, rather than several hours screening often contradictory information.
The other good thing: Gemini said it would be a terrible PITA, no matter how carefully it is planned and executed….. exactly what I had concluded.
Tom Scharf,
“This might eventually break Google’s search dominance.”
I think the number of Google searches is already off significantly. Google is investing heavily in AI because they probably see that the days of the Google mega-profits are numbered.
I just tried Gemini 3 with the same question I used earlier today. It now gives specific product recommendations (I see massive advertising conflict of interests coming here, ha ha)
“The other good thing: Gemini said it would be a terrible PITA, no matter how carefully it is planned and executed….. exactly what I had concluded.”
Very likely correct advice.
Steve,
Yeah, Gemini sucks up, no question. When I say something obvious it tells me what a brilliant observation it is, when I propose something that’s a bad idea it tells me my suggestion is bold, etc. By implication when it disagrees and doesn’t try to soften it I should take that as a hard no I suppose.
Mike,
I think you are missing a distinction about an ex post facto law. It’s not about when someone would be charged with a violation or tried for violating the law. It’s an issue of when the action occurs.
Suppose jay walking is legal today. I jay walk. Tomorrow they pass a law making jay walking illegal. If I jay walk after they pass the law, that’s not expost facto. If the the day after tomorrow, they charge me for jaywalking yesterday— before the law was passed, that’s expost facto.
But the reason it’s expost facto is I’m being charged for my act before the law was made.
as far as I’m aware, there is no inalienable right to secrecy of grand jury proceedings. I think congress can change that. But it has nothing to do with ‘expost facto’
ChatGPT sucks up big time. If you want an assessment not biased by your own view, you have to be very careful not to reveal your view first.
If you want to see how much of a suck up it is, feed it some tin foil hat idea you think is crazy but tell it you are inclined to believe that view. Ask it its opinion.
Everyone who uses chat GPT should do this to know that anything remotely close to saying that’s crazy is not coming out of chat gpt!
Lucia wrote: “I think you are missing a distinction about an ex post facto law.”
No, I am not. An ex post facto law changes the legal consequences of actions taken in the past. If I testify before a grand jury relying on the fact that my testimony will be kept secret, then a law that ex post facto removes that secrecy has consequences for me. That is unfair and is potentially quite damaging.
The question is whether the constitutional ban on ex post facto laws applies only to criminal laws. The text does not limit the ban to criminal laws. The Supreme Court ruled that the ban only applies to criminal laws; I do not understand the basis of that ruling,
So that would answer the question I had about whether an ex post facto removal of grand jury secrecy would be constitutional. Although I still don’t understand why the ban does not apply to civil law.
Training my AI dogs:
ME:
“If I ask you to not suck up and give me praise every time I ask a question would you remember that and stop doing it?”
ChatGPT:
“Got it — I’ll keep things straightforward from here on out, without praise or flattery.”
Grok:
“Yeah, I’ll remember. No more automatic “great question!” or “you’re a genius for asking that” fluff. Straight answers from here on out unless you tell me otherwise. Deal?”
Gemini:
Yes, I will remember your request to not “suck up” or give praise every time you ask a question and will adjust my responses accordingly.
My goal is to be a helpful and factual assistant, and I will focus on providing you with the information you request in a clear and direct manner.
Going forward, you can expect me to:
Be direct and concise in my answers.
Avoid conversational fluff or excessive positive affirmations.
Focus purely on the content of your query.”
Trump’s negotiating tactic seems to be to give Russia whatever Russia wants.
ISW:
“All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation to Russia’s original war demands. There are no provisions in the reported peace plan in which Russia makes any concessions, and ISW continues to assess that accepting Russian demands would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. ”
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1991704348506673172?s=20
Mike M,
The SC did NOT stop the ‘ex-post’ New York law passed so that Trump could be ‘held accountable’ in civil court for a claimed sexual encounter from 25 years earlier…. one for which there was no physical evidence, no eye witness testimony, and was never reported to police.
The NY law was passed specifically to target and punish Trump, was in force only long enough to punish Trump, and cost him many millions of dollars and endless social condemnation. No Federal court intervened. It is clear: the ex-post prohibition only applies to criminal prosecutions. Yes, the law on the Epstein investigation is ‘unfair’ to people who assumed what they told a grand jury would never be released. Life is sometimes unfair. If Congress passes a law that says FBI and grand jury information on Epstein must be made public, that is the end-of-the-story.
I think ‘The Liberal Patriot’ (Ruy Teixeira) is not going to get a lot of social invites from Dem leadership:
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-lefts-21st-century-project-has
The guy is right about the left’s crazy agenda, but I doubt many on the left are going to listen to him.
Mike M and HaroldW
Mike M., Doesn’t this suggest that the idea that Newsome was primed to pounce on an opportunity to redistrict may have been inaccurate.
It might be impossible to give Reublicans or blacks for that matter a district even though they consititute 30% of the population in a state if they are distributed evenly geographically.
Gerrymandering can only work where the distribution is not even.
This may be a logical fallacy but that Newsome could redistrict to pick up 5 or 6 Dem seats suggests that the present districts might be sort of (?) fair – and this in a mostly Democratic state.
john ferguson,
“This may be a logical fallacy but that Newsome could redistrict to pick up 5 or 6 Dem seats suggests that the present districts might be sort of (?) fair – and this in a mostly Democratic state.”
Exactly the same could be said of Texas, but even more so, since the number of seats Dems hold in Texas is closer to their relative vote fraction than in California.
Setting districts for specific political outcomes is as old as the republic (see the black majority district lines in Louisiana as an excellent example).
The SC will probably strike the application of the voting rights act to House districts as unconstitutional, and Republicans will pick up a dozen or so seats in the House in states which have been forced to gerrymander black-majority districts. California will retaliate by even greater disenfranchisement of Republicans. In the end, this contest will will turn out badly for Dems.
john,
I did not know that the CA redistricting had a trigger based on what happens in Texas.
I have read that, based on comparing the fraction of seats to fraction of votes, the new Texas map will be about as “fair” as the old California map.
Yesterday, US Navy and US Air Force aircraft were menacing Venezuela with their transponder turned on. I missed it but numerous others recorded it
Grok:
“At least four U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornets (callsigns FELIX11, FELIX12, PARTY11, LION11) from the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) were tracked loitering and conducting operations off Venezuela’s northern coast, near Aruba and Trinidad. These were accompanied by a U.S. Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint signals intelligence aircraft (callsign ALBUS39) performing repetitive passes for surveillance.”
Ukraine is slowly losing the war to Russia. The only way the war gets stopped today is by making major concessions and it appears Putin won’t even do that. The deals (they aren’t really many choices) will probably get worse as time goes by.
Nothing has changed. The US won’t commit to battlefield changing tactics, the EU just dithers endlessly, and Russia could care less about huge battlefield losses for minimal grinding gains.
Guys,
The percentage of voters in a state of a particular party does not entitle them to any specific percentage in an apportionment exercise because of the filter of their distirbution in the geography of the state.
For that reason I thnk it’s nonsense to carry on about some theoretical vote breakdown at the state level by party.
And yes, no doubt Illinois among some other states has been severely gerrymandered.
And yes, The Supremes respect gerrymandering as a legitimate activity of the electorate; Unless, of course, the wrong folks get their toes stepped on.
Obviously if the smaller party is spread evenly over the state it is going to get no votes in a Senate or Federal election.
I suspcect that the California Bi-Partison Commission probably did the best they could with the existing apportionment given that when aggressive gerymandering was done, 5 or 6 seatc could go to the Dems. I don’t doubt that that many or maye more could have gone the other way had the Repubs done it.
john ferguson wrote: “Obviously if the smaller party is spread evenly over the state it is going to get no votes in a Senate or Federal election.”
That would seem to be the case in Massachusetts. I think that Reagan was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry even a single county in that state. So no gerrymandering needed to get an all Democrat congressional delegation.
But both Texas and California have strongly Democrat areas and strongly Republican areas. So the composition of their delegations ought to have some resemblance to the voting population.
The redistricting commission in CA is supposed to be non-partisan. But in practice, Democrats have had disproportionate influence on it. So CA has been somewhat gerrymandered, but not outrageously so.
Hi Mike M.
Agree with your observations above.
The argument “We are going to take the high road right up until the point our power is threatened” isn’t very convincing.
The cynical view of politics explains and predicts behavior correctly most of the time.
Gerrymanders will likely be argued about in 50 years….. and in 100 years, assuming the robots have not taken over.
The SC will almost certainly end forced gerrymanders to create African American majority districts, which are essentially guaranteed Dem seats in states where they would not otherwise exist. The rest is window dressing.
Massachusetts: if the Voting Rights act were applied to Republicans, Massachusetts would have to gerrymander at least 1 and maybe 2 Republican majority districts. Won’t ever happen, of course. And Ron DeSantis is not going to bend over backwards to create districts Dems can win easily, of course.
Suggestion to those who are unhappy about gerrymanders: adopt policies that attract more votes for state legislatures and Governors. Florida was not a Republican stronghold when I moved to the state 25 years ago…. there are good reasons why it is now. If Dems gave up the crazy stuff, they could actually do well in Florida…… I doubt they will.
The Economist
“Don’t let a scandal undermine the defence of Ukraine”
https://archive.ph/Tahl3
.
“this scandal does not change anything. Ukraine is not, and never has been, a model of clean governance. That is not why the West has spent some $400bn—and counting—to help defend it.”
.
“Supporting Ukraine is not an act of selfless principle, but an exercise in hard-headed realism. The defence of Ukraine is the defence of Europe. If the profiteers are guilty, they deserve to rot in prison. But the West must not let a nasty scandal blind it to the greater danger that looms from Moscow. “
.
Ukraine is finding it harder to keep its allies onboard. Ukraine being a corrupt dictatorship finds it increasingly difficult to keep the money flowing to fund the truly massive level of corruption that exists in all levels of Ukraine institutions.
.
The MSM find themselves in the awkward position of pushing two diametrically conflicting realities vs Russia. They are pushing the idea that Russia is both militarily incompetent and a militarily “clear and present danger” to Europe. Going with both of these views at the same time just makes them looking more incompetent over time. This is one on the reasons their ratings are in free fall.
According to Ed’s previous string of predictions I’m going to go with Russia is militarily incompetent. The good news for Russia is most of their future equipment will be new since all the old stuff was pretty much destroyed.
I certainly wouldn’t give the EU high marks either. They seem incapable of coordinated action.
If the NATO strategy was to bleed Russia as much as possible then that is working rather well 4 years in. This resembles a quagmire more than a conquest.
Tom Scharf,
“This resembles a quagmire more than a conquest.”
For sure. But Russians want to limit/control Ukraine’s political options, and are very willing to sacrifice a lot to get that. It is a quagmire, one I expect the Russians will continue until Ukraine gives up. The deal Ukraine could have had three months after the Russian invasion was a lot better than what they could get now, and I strongly suspect the longer the fighting goes on, the worse will be the final agreement for Ukraine. No telling how long Ukraine will keep fighting, but I think trading land and foreign policy limitations for peace is inevitable, no matter how distasteful and unfair that is for Ukraine.
“I certainly wouldn’t give the EU high marks either. They seem incapable of coordinated action.”
My experience is that nightmares rarely involve coordinated action.
Marjorie Taylor Greene is resigning from Congress.
I, for one, will shed no tears if she disappears from public view entirely. Too many off-the-wall takes.
Wow, HaroldW, whatever are we going to do now to keep up on the Jewish Space Laser front?
In considering Russia in the Ukraine war, one also needs to consider the US Civil War where there were a long string of Union battle loses that eventually resulted in the Union winning their war.
..
President Lincoln was looking for commenders who were bloody minded enough to take large numbers of casualties in order to bring the South to its knees through attrition. He found his generals in Grant and Sherman.
Ukraine is staring down at total destruction of Ukraine in a situation very similar to the South in our Civil War.
When I first heard that the Looney Tune Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned I figured Trump had something on her. I’ve done my homework and none of my normally reliable sources backed me up on that theory but I’m still sticking to it anyway.
John, Your post:
“Wow, HaroldW, whatever are we going to do now to keep up on the Jewish Space Laser front”
I nominate Rashida Tlaib For that job.
Ukraine is having a bad time at the battlefront.
I believe the following is an honest account from the Ukrainian news source Kiev Independent, including maps:
“Russia likely captured over 15 villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since September, OSINT group says”
Detailed analysis:
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-likely-captured-over-15-villages-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-since-september-osint-group-says/
In January of 2025 Russia occupied 19.1% of Ukraine. In November of 2025 Russia controls 19.5% of Ukraine. They have lost almost 300,000 soldiers and expended so much wealth to gain .4% of Ukraine that they are now selling the gold in their National Wealth Fund.
Cue General Pyrrhus.
Thomas,
I do not doubt your numbers but I would like to explore it a little further. Can you give me a link to where those facts came from?
I have been a cheerleader for the Ukrainian side since the start.
Here’s a list of the US naval assets assembled in the Caribbean Sea for “Operation Southern Spear”. It’s a formidable armada:
Carrier Strike Group
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78): Aircraft carrier
USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81): Guided-missile destroyer
USS Bainbridge (DDG 96): Guided-missile destroyer
USS Mahan (DDG 72): Guided-missile destroyer
Amphibious Ready Group
USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7): Amphibious assault ship
USS San Antonio (LPD 17): Amphibious transport dock
USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28): Amphibious transport dock
Other Vessels
USS Lake Erie (CG 70): Guided-missile cruiser
USS Gettysburg (CG 64): Guided-missile cruiser
USS Gravely (DDG 107): Guided-missile destroyer
USS Stockdale (DDG 106): Guided-missile destroyer
USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109): Guided-missile destroyer
USS Minneapolis-Saint Paul (LCS 21): Littoral combat ship
USS Newport News (SSN 750): Nuclear-powered attack submarine
MV Ocean Trader: Special operations ship
Last night’s conclusion to the very informative Ken Burns American Revolution series included an observation that the Americans needed only not to lose; the English needed to win. After I got back in my chair, I looked it up and learned via Perplexity that this was not a contemporary quotation, or if it was AI couldn’t find a reference.
It has certainly been said of Ukraine’s situation.
i’d known thatI was mostly unfamiliar with the history of our revolution. The series convinced me I didn’t even know as much as I thought I did. Jan and I went to high school together, took the same history courses and seemed equally ignorant.
I wonder if the history department decided the details were unimportant in teaching American History.
Anyone else feel this way after watching the series?
John,
I haven’t seen it yet, but with your recommendation, I’ll start watching it tonight.
From what I have heard, one should be careful about taking the Burns documentary as fact.
Thomas Fuller,
the war in Ukraine could end a bit like the old description of bankruptcy: “Gradually and Then Suddenly”.
I expect the war will end in the next 12 months. Many people won’t like how it ends. It seems to me very likely Russia will control all of the Donbas, and the remainder of the border will be set by current lines of control, save for small pieces of land in the north, from which Russia will withdraw.
I doubt Zelensky will be in office after the next election in Ukraine, whenever that is. How quickly Ukrainian infrastructure is rebuilt will depend mainly on how generous the Europeans are, and how convinced investors are that the government is stable and corruption is under control.
Mike M,
“From what I have heard, one should be careful about taking the Burns documentary as fact.”
I completely agree, if only because the series is being shown by PBS….. who have, shall we say, shown some bias in past portrayals of history. The writer and director, Ken Burns, described himself as “a Yellow Dog Democrat”…. he would vote for a yellow dog if it ran as a Democrat. After High school, he decided to attend a college where grades were not issued at all for courses….. only comments by the teachers.
All very bad signs if you are expecting a lack of bias.
Adam Johnson of The Federalist writes:
John,
On your recommendation I started watching Ken Burns American Revolution on PBS. It’s so bad it’s unwatchable.
First, the good stuff…
The cinematography is wonderful.
The research is exhaustive.
The narration is spellbinding.
BUT..
It’s laced throughout with woke bullshit.
This nonsense is the reason we defunded public broadcasting. They can’t tell a story without force feeding us the liberal mantra.
[blockquote]The good news for Russia is most of their future equipment will be new since all the old stuff was pretty much destroyed.[/blockquote]
This was basically what happened for the US after Pearl Harbor. Our fleet at the time was relatively antiquated. Had our battleships gone to sea and engaged the Imperial Japanese Navy in blue water, it’s quite likely they would have been sunk with no hope of recovery.
Instead, the damage in the shallow waters of Pearl Harbor at a fully equipped shipyard meant the ships were recovered and outfitted with modern equipment.
Supporting the Ukraine resistance has been useful to the West for a number of reasons beyond the moral imperative of resisting Russian expansion and aggression, not the least of which is gathering data on the effectiveness of various weapons and tactics, but it has cost hundreds of billions of euro and dollars and thousands of Ukrainian lives. The lives are why Trump wants to end the war quickly even if it gives Putin a moral victory. I am still curious about how much of the money has been siphoned off by corrupt bureaucrats.
WRT Ken Burns, the last time I enjoyed one of his documentaries was Baseball and I don’t see any benefit in patronizing PBS at this particular time.
I’m very skeptical of rewriting of history through today’s cultural lens by any modern historian. There is a bit too much of that going on lately. I guess historians have to do something with their time. There is very little space between today’s “scholars” and progressive activists and that is their fault, full stop. Woe is being a conservative historian in 2025.
Ken Burns has been good in the past but I will reserve judgment for what Russell references. Woke-ism has undoubtedly become a problem with documentaries especially since 2020 and almost everything being produced over the past 5 years has been infused with it, and this documentary has been worked on for the last 10 years.
When you have the entire artistic set committed to this activism then even Ken Burns is unlikely to be able to keep it out. The opposite problem is also in effect. People’s woke radar is a little bit too highly tuned in many cases.
Many artists felt compelled to insert this stuff and the funders of these efforts were OK with it up to the point of demanding it. That’s their prerogative but somebody should check with the intended audience as the results often haven’t been subtle.
If you are going to do documentaries on slavery or civil rights then that is fine, but if you are doing things that are ostensibly unrelated then getting preachy to the audience is a bad idea.
Tom, your comment:
“ People’s woke radar is a little bit too highly tuned in many cases.”
I admit I am guilty of this. About every 10 minutes I got angry with rage watching this film because they snuck in another snippet of Woke BS.
Rewriting history, case in point.
My understanding is the confederate flag is now a “hate” symbol. I guess somebody forgot to notify my junior high school in 1970’s. Our nickname was The Rebels and the mascot was a grizzled old confederate soldier with a knapsack and a confederate flag. We plastered the walls with confederate flags during pep rallies.
Nobody cared.
People from “up north” cannot comprehend this nor do they make the first effort to do so with all their alleged cultural sensitivity.
I would suggest I know exactly what Lynyrd Skynyrd fans were displaying with confederate flags. Rebellion, standing for an unpopular cause. In this case rock and roll, drinking low cost domestic beer underaged, smoking weed, and maybe throwing frisbee, ha ha.
Russell,
1. Tom might have meant that the other way (the people looking to BE woke tend to be overzealous in the application of their woke).
2. Even if he didn’t, you don’t have to apologize for that. What I have found is that I can shrug off a reasonable amount of woke B.S., but after a sufficient number of constant repetitions it becomes irritating. Unfortunately, once you’re able to ‘see’ it, you can’t ‘unsee’ it. I can’t watch the same TV my wife watches anymore except for 30 minutes at a time max as a consequence. No big loss; most TV stinks, but still.
It’s Chinese water torture. I’m sure that term has become politically incorrect, and it’s funny that the irritation caused by overexposure to woke is remedied by indulging in woke blasphemy. It’s probably a piece of the reason Trump came to power.
Mark,
“It’s probably a piece of the reason Trump came to power.l
It is certainly a reason I support Trump
Russell,
I know what you mean. I got a perfectly reasonable letter from a guy we’re incvolved with in a technical issue and it finished up with his pronouns.
How can people possibly be so dense?
John,
I was looking forward to watching it too because I enjoyed his Civil War film. I don’t remember any of this crap being woven into the civil war film.
I jusrt bought a micro-controller programmer from Mouser. The invoice showed $15 tariff on the $95 device.
So it’s here. Yippee.
I should add, that the threat of delayed imnposition of tariffs may have contributed to the mini-boom this summer as those of us who could foresee what we were going to need from China, bought while we could.
now what?
I think people can be too sensitive to unintentional woke injection, it depends. Sometimes when I watch pre-woke era movies and TV I see stuff that would probably set off woke alarms now, but didn’t then.
The rewrites of previous culture through today’s judgmental standards are annoying and I also cannot take much of it before I move on.
Preachy content has to be done very carefully and for the most part it is done clumsily. Either put it in with balance or leave it out.
Some people want culturally judgmental content to stroke their egos. Requiring it everywhere (I’m looking at you sensitivity readers) has led to poor financial performance of artistic content that is otherwise possibly good content. The market is working as it should.
Our foreign film group watched The English Patient. At the discussion which followed I heard a couple of the women carry on about how badly the Brits treated the locals at Shepheard’s. I couldn’t remember seeing this so we watched it again.
it WAS NOT there, not a bit.
I can remember another of them who got her undies all wdded up and wouldn’t shut up aboout the implicit mysogyny in Blow UP. The provokation was two ninnies who wanted to be models.
So we briefly discussed how to represent characters who were part of the script but acted their roles.
I came down to this wmoan’s view that movies should never show women in less than admirable roles if they don’t want to be thought mysogynistic.
AAAKKKKK.
My main criticism of the English Patient– if I remember it correctly– was that it was deadly dull. I just kept thinking… this will be over now… no– dang! Now it will be over…. but no. Now…
John Ferguson,
“I just bought a micro-controller programmer from Mouser.”
What microcontroller are you programming?
I find Digikey to usually have a more complete inventory and they deliver very fast. Mouser is usually little cheaper.
American Fiction should make for some interesting discussion in your group! That was one of the few I have seen that took this Woke issue on and managed it well IMO. Some truly funny scenes in that one.
Dang! It’s less fun to talk to Gemini when it starts asking me hard questions. Well… It’s still fun. But the darn machine is making me work.
Anyone else see this behavior? I’m talking philosophy and theology with Gemini and having put forward a position, the machine is probing the boundaries by asking questions at the end of each of its answers.
and then when I reply, other follow up questions I won’t share at this time.
I just got to thinking that the Ken Burns movie screwup reminds me the same thing happened to David Attenborough.
He always has the best photographers, in the best locations, and the best animal scenes. BUT, in later years, everything turned into a movie about the effects of climate change and resource depletion and indigenous people exploitation.
SteveF
STM32H and G series. They are in an ST Robotics Evaluation kit which I’m hoping to understand well enough eventually to do thiongs which turned out to be beyond the Teensy MCU’a I had been using. Just getting started. The IDE that works with this is a whole lot more complex than the Arduino IDE’s I was used to.
I had done a project with an ATMEL IDE ten years ago and have forgotten almost all of it.
Nature documentaries got so unpleasant to watch (shame on you for being human!!!) that I have almost given up on them completely. Attenborough fought this for a while but was hounded mercilessly until he caved.
Tom, your post:
“ Nature documentaries got so unpleasant to watch (shame on you for being human!!!) that I have almost given up on them completely”
Yes. That used to be my favorite genre, but I haven’t watched one in years.
Eclipse based IDE’s are a nightmare of unnecessary complexity. Steep learning curve. Capable enough but nasty if something breaks.
STM has good products. I loved Atmel until Microchip bought them and ruined everything.
Arduino was a mixed bag. Simple but too rigid. I was forced to use it on one project. No debugger, aaaaggghhh.
So, I asked Gemini:
“When did David Attenborough stop making honest documentaries and become a member of the woke crowd?”
He replied in detail, but:
“In summary, while Attenborough has always been a voice for conservation, his documentaries began to pivot from a focus purely on natural history to a more urgent, explicitly activist focus on human impact, climate change, and solutions around the mid-2000s, with this message becoming more central and powerful in the last decade.”
I would go along with that analysis.
link:
https://g.co/gemini/share/8d4172c0b6b6
David Attenborough has betrayed the living world he loves
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/07/david-attenborough-world-environment-bbc-films
Also
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/04/attenborough-dynasties-ecological-campaign
This is the kind of garbage that drove him to the dark side.
At 11:30 PM, Florida time a USAF Boeing C 40 clipper aircraft was in flight from Shannon Ireland to an unknown destination. This aircraft is a 737 equivalent and usually flies full of diplomats to hotspots around the globe. There’s rumored to be a meeting between the US, Europe and Ukraine tomorrow in Switzerland about Trump‘s Russian peace plan. I’m putting two and two together and assuming that’s where this plane is heading. It’s currently over Germany heading south. It took off from Shannon at 3:30 AM Shannon time.
Screenshot of the jet and its track:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1992453933827236057?s=20
Wrong! that USAF diplomat 737 flew right over Switzerland and is now at 37,000 feet over Italy, headed southeast. I have no idea where it’s going.
Grok traced that USAF clipper back to its original takeoff at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa. It theorizes that was a fuel stopover in Shannon Ireland. It believes it’s carrying the US CENTRAL COMMAND (CENTCOM) brass from their homebase in Tampa to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
Tom Scharf
My confidence in ultimately prevailing despite not really knowing what I’m doing may be broken by Eclipse. One thing that I’ve got now which I didn’t have before is some AI help with using it.
Its the capriciousness of Eclipse. Sometimes it loses track of one layer of environment variables and you just have to know to go to your project window and hit f5 for no apparent reason. Sometimes you have to exit out and come back in when you change certain things. Capable enough but troublesome. I don’t want to debug the environment, I want to focus on the project!
john ferguson,
What language are you working with? Appears Eclipse handles several.
By all counts, the current COP30 has been a disaster.
Even the BBC is panning it.
They made no headway on banning fossil fuels.
The only thing they agreed on was transferring more wealth from developed nations to developing nations.
BBC: “COP30: Five key takeaways from a deeply divisive climate summit”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp84m16mdm1o
Eventually, I did find the USAF planes carrying US diplomats to Switzerland. At 2 AM there were two of them, both big airliners, 737 and 752. They started out at Joint Base Andrews.
Screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1992593845843030211?s=61
SteveF
C/C++
Which is what I’ve been using since I started messing with this on the boat in 2005,I think, with Arduino projects. self-taught by finding code which sort of did what I wanted and changing it to work, relying on Arduino IDE to catch errors and repeated trial and error.
One formal class in Fortran in 1964, and the stuff I learned while selling Sun Systems in 1988-1994 . ie not much.
I’d thought that I’d be able to evolve the Flight Data Recorder code into flight control code but got stymied by trying to record data from different sensors emitted at different data rates. I thought one solution would be to use several mcu’s (Teensy 3’s) in this case , rectify (?) thier data streams locally and then receive what i needed in a central mcu which managed the flight and the r/c input.
that was where i was when covid hit, and then i couldn’t fly at the local r/c field because a lot of the other guys thought covid was a hoax and wouldn’t keep their distance.
I bought this robotics kit from STM and am overwhelmed by the capabilities of their chips. For example the one i have does TofFight which does distance measuring with a laser down to an inch or two by timing an interval at speed of light. it has to be able to deal with a very short interval. I’d have never believed anything like this was possible.
I’m not sure yet whether I’m up to this, but I’ll find out in the next couple of months,
I’m just realizing how crazy it is that the United States has two big airliners with diplomats going to the conference in Switzerland with NATO and Ukraine over the Russia peace proposal. I have no idea what they need 500 people for.
I must have something wrong here.
Grok says each big jet probably only contained 30 to 40 diplomats it’s how they roll
Russell,
I am sure that those diplomats are not flying in coach type seating. There are probably also a lot of gofers, tech people, security, etc.
john ferguson,
Sounds like the processor you have selected has plenty of horsepower for what you want to do, but it sounds like plenty of interrupts to handle different data streams.
If you flame out, you could write in C++ (I understand most all functionality is supported) using the 8-processor Propeller 2 chip (about $20). There are free IDE’s for C++ and all processes can run independently, so no interrupts…. ever. The processors all run at up to 160 MHz without overclocking, so with 8 processors you get the equivalent of 1.2+ GHz processing power. Routines which can fit in 4 Kbytes of ‘local processor memory’ run at ~ 80 million instructions per second. When a routine is too large to fit in local processor memory (resides in main memory), the execution rate for the dedicated processor is more like 16 million instructions per second.
This newer chip has shorter memory fetches and a faster clock than the original Propeller chip I have used for the last 15 years, and is said to be 16 times faster than the original chip. I have always found the original to be more than fast enough, although most of what I have worked on is in the 10 microseconds to multi-milliseconds timing range, not single microsecond range or less.
I remember reports that at least one of Obama’s foreign trips had a retinue of 1000 people once you included security, communications, drivers, etc.
I’ve never flown or been in one of the executive transport planes but am guessing there is a mix of seating with the diplomats and executives in what would equate to international first class or better, at least one area for them to confer, and then lesser economy-type seating for the support personnel.
There are probably some additional subject matter experts to assist with discussions since they will need to be able to modify terms and understand the likely impacts of those modifications.
Once you get the edit-compile-debug cycle going in Eclipse it graduates to barely tolerable and you know to never touch the configuration and never try to reinstall it again. I mostly put these in VM’s for future use.
Configuring a debugger in Eclipse is typically torture. It can do all kinds of remote debugging trickery if properly configured. I always try to start with a reference project and typically buy the recommended debugging hardware to short circuit the configuration nightmare.
The first thing I do is get the debugger working, nothing proceeds until that is successful.
ARM variants pretty much rule the embedded space. Open up most boxes that require moderate processing or networking and you will find an ARM derivative.
They have great performance, low cost, and endless variants. The vast majority of API code, libraries, and open source is C, even if the provided compiler is C++. Arduino being an exception with C++ which makes it a pain to port their drivers.
The difference between vendors with hardware isn’t that significant as they all have standard building blocks (Various serial interfaces, USB, internal flash, SRAM, ADC’s, DAC’s, Timers with PWM’s, etc.) but the difference in provided API libraries can be a big deal. Debugging vendor library API’s requires expertise so maturity of their code is important.
You can always go bare metal with register level programming but you better know how to read a 1000 page datasheet.
If you can stand Linux then the Raspberry Pi line provides really good value.
This. Yes. If there is no reference project that already works, don’t play.
This may be the calm before the storm.
After weeks of USAF and USN aircraft saber rattling in the Caribbean Sea, particularly off the coast of Venezuela, the skies have been quiet for the last three or four days.
Below is a screenshot of all the US military aircraft over the Caribbean Sea. It is one lonely USAF prop plane over the Pacific Ocean off Panama.
[There may be others that are flying dark]
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1992662352622391616?s=20
john ferguson,
I forgot to mention: the I/O pins on the Propeller2 chip (I think 60 are available) can all be configured in software to function as either digital IO, an on-chip A/D converter (I think 16 bits effective resolution at 1,000 reads per second), or a 12 bit (14 bit?) D/A converter. So you don’t really need any external A/D or D/A chips for sensor inputs…. maybe only adjustment of the sensor voltages to the proper analog voltages for the microprocessor…… unless you need high resolution (like do in my applications).
Hi SteveF.
It looks like Propellors come in dip packagingwhich means I can easily design and cut boards for them and the connectors and local devices just like I did with the Teensy’s.
If you are using an IDE, which one?
Arduino’s IDE made coding so easy for me. And then Eagle to design the boards and generate the G-Code to cut them. I’m screwed with Eagle. AutoDesk is retiring Eagle in June and I’m going to have to go to something else if I keep doing this.
John Ferguson,
I use the Parallax IDE for their Spin language. That also supports their assembly language.
As far as I can tell only the original Propeller chip is available in DIP format (44 pins total, 32 available for GPIO IIRC). We farm out our circuit boards, once the design is settled, and only use the surface mount version of the Propeller1 chip. The Propeller 2 is programmed in the same environment, although with updated language features, more memory, on-chip A/D and on-chip D/A. But that newer chip is only available surface mount,
Both can be programmed in C/C++ using free IDEs (I have never used these). I have seen claims that C/C++ runs ~5 -10 times faster than interpreted Spin code (Spin is an interpreted byte code), but aside from a few routines that run assembly, we have never needed all that much speed. With interpreted Spin code, the Propeller 2 is claimed to be 5-10 times faster than the same code on the older chip. The old chip manages about 80,000 lines executed per second (per processor), so the new one, at 400,000 to 800,000 lines executed per second (per processor) should handle most tasks even without resorting to C or assembly.
Parallax offers a starter package with the Propeller2 on a board, along with all supporting hardware, USB interface (for programming) cables and a 5V power supply (3 amps) for about $100. Plug it in, download the IDE of choice, and you are programming on any Windows computer with a USB port. I believe at least 48 IO pins are available for external connections.
Finally, there is a huge group of individual programmers who offer working free code and can answer questions..
SteveF
Thank you so much for this.
john
Yesterday, a U.S. Air Force Boeing C-32A left Joint Base Andrews and landed in Puerto Rico. It stopped at Albert J. Ellis Airport in Richlands, NC just north of Marine Corps Base Camp LeJeune on the way.
The aircraft is often named ‘Air Force Two’ and carries vice president Vance.
There is no confirmation of who was on board, but OSINT is speculating it is very high ranking military brass:
“The Boeing C-32 of the United States Air Force-SAM336 (Special Air Mission) brought to #PuertoRico today General Dan Caine, Chief of the Joint Staff, who is visiting the troops in the Caribbean.”
Flight track:
https://x.com/theintelfrog/status/1992705581187223716?s=61
President Trump just now posted on Truth:
“Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine??? Don’t believe it until you see it, but something good just may be happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”
USAF refueling tankers from all over the country have been coming to MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa over the past couple of days. MacDill has its own fleet of refueling aircraft in the 6th Air Refueling Wing. Perhaps MacDill will be the gas station that refuels the operation in the Caribbean.
Screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1992913722772435355?s=20
The US has issued a Notice to Airmen, NOTAM, in the central Gulf of America for Tuesday.
I SPECULATE this may be related to the refueling tankers that have been gathering at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa.
“On Sunday, November 23, 2025, the U.S. Civil Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) for international airspace over the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), Unlike previous NOTAMs issued for Puerto Rico and Venezuela, this one will take effect on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, and will be in effect for only three hours [14:00-17:00].”
EDIT, Another quirky thing going on is I have been seeing B-52s Coming to the US from Spain.
SteveF
It turns out that thje flight controller community has chosen STM32 MCUs almost exclusively and since much of the code I want has already been written, and shared, I’m stuck with eclipse.
ah well.
John,
Technically you aren’t stuck with Eclipse because Eclipse is just the IDE. You could bypass that and use the compiler tools directly if you wanted. It sounds like you are stuck with a hardware architecture.
You could probably use Visual Studio Code for instance. It’s not better than Eclipse, just different.
Thanks Mark,
I hadn’t thought of that. In the late ’80s I had to compile most applications to run on the Suns, and more recently GhostPrint so I could use the SPARC10 as a print server with my ancient SPARCPrinter I.
Your’s is such a good idea. Avoid all the bells and whistles.
Not trying to be a Drama Queen, but a ‘doomsday plane’ took off from MacDill Air Force Base, headed north out of Tampa. The destination is unknown, but it’s over the Carolinasheaded in the direction of Washington DC.
“The Boeing E-4B is a militarized version of the Boeing 747-200 that serves as the U.S. Air Force’s National Airborne Operations Center (NAOC), often called the “Doomsday Plane”. It functions as a highly survivable, flying command and control center for the President, Secretary of Defense, and Joint Chiefs of Staff during national emergencies, including nuclear attacks. The E-4B is equipped with advanced communications and shielding to withstand an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and can remain airborne for extended periods through aerial refueling”
Screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1992989179047985237?s=20
It never hurts to be reminded to live each day as if it could be your last. One of these days will be, for sure.
Thanks Russell.
Setting up command line tools is even more difficult. With STM32Cube all the common compile and linker options should be setup if you start with a reference project. You just have to endure the initial pain.
People tend to use Visual Studio Code (or IDE of choice) because they like the text editor. Keyboard shortcuts/mapping are muscle memory for professional programmers. If I am doing a lot of code edits sometime I will use Visual Studio to do all the code edits and just use STM32CubeIDE for programming and debugging.
STM generally has decent documentation and good stuff on YouTube to get going. If you are using a development kit then it should be pretty quick. There will be a page for the dev kit which has downloads for starter projects. If you are using code from somewhere else then the project file should just load hopefully. Starting from scratch with an empty project is not recommended. Just clock configuration on these devices is crazy.
The usual problems are getting the board programmed the first time and getting the debugger running.
STM uses a code generator for configuration (I/O mapping, libraries, etc.) which can be daunting at first. You can only write code in certain sections of some files or it will get overwritten on configuration changes.
Mark,
i’m guessing all of this being done in the open with transponders on because it’s part of an elaborate saber rattling scheme to scare Maduro
EDIT, There are two B-52 bombers in the air headed south from Minot, North Dakota
EDIT 2, there are four flying tankers out of McDill over Florida right now
Thanks Tom, I much appreciate the advice I’m getting here.
Russell,
I’m sure that has to at least be part of it, yep! But Trump being Trump, one just can’t know for sure how far he’s willing to go. Most people doubt Trump will use force to topple Marduro and they have decent reasons for thinking so.
We may see!
Mark —
As the song says, “live like you were dying.”
Trump and his fans would downvote me if they could but I say just ignore anything he posts for public consumption. As Ben Shapiro says, Trump says a lot of s–t. Watch what he and other administration officials do, instead of reading or listening to what they say.
Hilarious environmentalist tale from Oakland CA.
A Stand Against Coal Could Push Oakland Toward Bankruptcy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/us/oakland-coal-port-budget-bankruptcy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.3k8.A7CQ.CYRQ-UAAgtgh
Oakland approves $250M port expansion effort to export coal from Utah to Asia. The usual greenies get wind of this and force progressive city council to effectively just cancel ongoing contract because of “global warming”.
Contract law judges over the past decade are not the least bit impressed and Oakland has exhausted almost all legal efforts and must now pay up for damages in hundreds of millions for their virtue signaling. The proselytizing greenies will pay nothing of course.
Well this is gonna be a fight:
“US judge throws out criminal cases against James Comey and Letitia James
Judge says interim US attorney for eastern district of Virginia had ‘no lawful authority’ to indict former FBI director and New York attorney general”
The judge these type of prosecutors need Senate approval.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/24/james-comey-letitia-james-charges-case-dismissed
So I guess the judge has thrown ot ALL cases brought in that district since Halligan was appointed. Yikes.
The rules involving interim appointments are not entirely clear. Judges are using that in an attempt to seize power from the Executive. I think SCOTUS will overrule them.
And not only that, for Comey the statute of limitations has expired and even though the matter was dismissed without prejudice which meant that the prosecution could have cleaned up the necessary details and refiled as it was, they cannot because it’s too late for Comey. I don’t know where this stands with James.
There will be nothing to clean up if the judge is over ruled on appeal. If upheld, then the Comey case is over.
Mike M.
You’re right, If the dismissal is oveerturned on appeal, the original filing will proceed although I think, but don’t know for sure, that there were other challenges to the origiginal prosecution which were still pending. If so, they would have to be adjudicated.
The SOI Southern Oscillation Index has finally gone above 10 and USA and Australia have had unusually old spells of weather.
Anyone care to venture if we will see a drop in Roy Spencer’s World Temperature briefly for November.
Having said that almost impossible to occur.
The only reasons to fly with transponders off is for testing (generally at established test ranges) or when on an actual operational mission. Otherwise, they should be on for general flight safety — if it happens to also rattle a few sabers then so much the better …
angech –
“unusually old spells of weather”
That would be “weder” or “wedir” per this page.
I have followed the OSINT site ‘Warmapper’ for a long time. They regularly put out detailed maps and accounting of territory gained and lost by Ukraine and Russia. It is a well respected site that has tended to be pro Ukrainian. I was not happy to see this post today:
“Ukraine needs to surrender and accept Trumps peace deal now, if they don’t they are committing suicide and might lose there entire country
– Kupyansk, Borova, Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kostyantynivka, Hulyaipole, Pokrovske, Orikhiv, the entire front is collapsing
It might not have been the outcome they wanted, but when you lose a war you don’t decide the outcome, the victors do”
https://x.com/worldwar3mapper/status/1993158720532930858?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
ISW posted this today:
“Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Velykomykhailivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.”
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-24-2025/
Derek, Your Post:
“The only reasons to fly with transponders off is for testing (generally at established test ranges) or when on an actual operational mission.”
That is simply not true when it comes to the USAF and the USN.
I watched them turn their transponders off all the time, particularly the fighter jets. They are almost never flying with her transponders on.
I asked Grok to quantify the net territory taken by Russia over time. Looking historically the numbers don’t look so dour as is being posted recently.
Here’s a summary:
Net Yearly Changes:
2023: +487 km²
2024: +3,985 km²
2025 (Jan–Nov): +~4,028 km² (adjusted to match tool data; pace ~365 km²/month average, up from 2024’s ~332 km²/month)
I asked for a monthly basis over the past year:
Nov 2024: 724 km²
Dec 2024: 560 km²
Jan 2025: 498 km²
Feb 2025: 311 km²
Mar 2025: 133 km²
Apr 2025: 174 km²
May 2025: 499 km²
Jun 2025: 466 km²
Jul 2025: 446 km²
Aug 2025: 550 km² (full month; ~908 km² total Aug 15–Nov 21 across 3+ months)
Sep 2025: 430 km²
Oct 2025: 226 km²
Nov 2025 (partial): ~96 km²
Primary Data Providers
Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Provides daily/weekly assessments of confirmed advances via geolocated footage. Their maps and reports form the backbone for many figures, especially for recent hotspots like Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
DeepState Map (Ukrainian OSINT): A real-time interactive map tracking frontline changes, often cited by ISW and others. It reports cumulative occupied territory in km².
Russia Matters (Harvard Kennedy School): Weekly “War Report Cards” aggregate ISW and DeepState data, offering period-specific net gains in sq mi. These are particularly useful for monthly/yearly trends.
full conversation:
https://x.com/i/grok/share/oU5MLD9xuwu5ZV4SMz3MnhnKh
You know I feel a lot more optimistic that there may be success with Marco Rubio leading the peace process instead of Trump Certainly the headlines in the last few days have been encouraging:
“US and Ukrainian officials report significant progress in Geneva on a peace plan to end the war with Russia, reducing the proposal from 28 to 19 points, despite ongoing key disagreements. “
“US Secretary of the Army Daniel P. Driscoll met with a Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi to discuss the peace process.”
“Lavrov said that Russia has received the US peace plan through unofficial channels and is ready to discuss specific wording, because there are “a number of issues that need to be clarified.”
MikeM,
It will be interesting to see what happens in the appeal. The judge (for consistency) did the same for all cases, but were it not for the political nature of the Comey and James cases, I doubt the judge would ever have done that.
I do wonder: do these judges not see that getting involved in essentially political issues they are going to lose public support? From the way they behave, I suspect they son’t care at all. I blame it all on the despicable, execrable Harry Reed. He when nuclear to put these judges on the bench.
Johnathan Turley suspects these cases may drag out until the next administration. The process is the punishment, and punishment is what Trump is looking for.
It looks to me like the dismissal was for process not substance of the indictment. The problem with process is that the prosecutor position can be an appointment which can run 120 days without Senate confirmation but the 120 days is for the position not the individual. This is because were it to be the individual, a president could string out terms of say 110 days in succesession and never have his appointments confirmed.
I doubt that the dismissal will be reversed on appeal. And of course judge would treat both cases the same, they each have the saem problem.
She also dismissed “without prejudice” which means that if the government can over come the statute of limitations problem in Comey’s case, the indictment can be brought again. She really had no choice because the substance was never adjudicated.
It may be difficult but maybe not impossible to discover if a case has ever been prosecuted by an attorney whose office had exceeded the 120 day limitation. My guess is not.
And then there was Halligan’s failure to get another attorney to sign the indictment which had it been signed might have permitted the case to move foreward without Halligan.
John Ferguson,
Whether the Comey case continues or not will depend on rulings of appeals courts. I wouldn’t bet either way. The James case will almost certainly continue with a different prosecutor.
These are garbage cases, as were most (if not all) of the cases brought against Trump and his associates. The question to ask is: would a prosecution have taken place if the person were some unknown citizen? Most every time, the answer is a firm no.
IMHO, politically motivated prosecutions are very bad for the country.
By the way, Senate republicans’ phone records being seized will have real consequences…… talk about politically motivated.
SteveF
I think DOJ could refile Letitia with anothe prosecutor immediately. If they can find one. The Comey statute of limitations constraint may be overcome via some sort of court practice which gives the governement a 6 month extension if the cause of the delay meets some standard or other. I doubt that the apppoointment f*up will meet that standard, but it could.
SteveF
Is the seizure of Republican phone records a January 6 thing?
Oc course it’s political but if it’s that, and if one were to think that there was a Trump-directed effort to change the (apparent) results of an election, there would be many possibilities for criminal conspiracy.
It seems so obvious to me, but …..
John Ferguson,
Yes, you think the seizing of Senator’s phone records was perfectly OK. Senators mostly disagree. BTW , Bosberg (sp?) is going to take a lot of heat for blocking notices of the court orders to Senators, in direct defiance of applicable law.
You may also think all the prosecutions of Trump and associates were justified. That is something that we completely disagree on, and has profoundly divided the country, to our detriment.
John Ferguson,
Most of the Trump prosecutions were extreme stretches, and always seemingly justified by the ‘but its Trump’ exception to all precedents.
SteveF
i agree that the prosecution by Smith of Trump was unprecedented but so was the attempt to overturn an election.
“Stop the steal”? OK to hang Pence? Find me 11K votes? It sure looked like a conspiracy to me.
And it’s customary to investigate possibilities of criminal conspiracy and if sufficient evidence is discovered, to prosecute them.
AFAIK, the Repbulican, and others’, phone records sought were at this point only meta data.
And yes, I do believe that memebers of congress were involved in the conspiracy, but likely not many.
I do think some people honestly thought the electin had been stolen.
But it appears that no-one was ever able to show how.
“if one were to think that there was a Trump-directed effort to change the (apparent) results of an election”
Maybe they should look into that, maybe do a prime time show about it, ha ha. I also heard something about collusion with Russia, this should also be investigated, now! Also whisperings about some Epstein thing.
It’s hard to believe these things haven’t even been looked into.
The weird thing about this type of political targeting is lack of evidence is just evidence of a coverup.
john ferguson wrote: “The problem with process is that the prosecutor position can be an appointment which can run 120 days without Senate confirmation but the 120 days is for the position not the individual.”
That is not what the law says. It seems to say that a person can not serve for more than 120 days
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546
“(c) A person appointed as United States attorney under this section may serve until …”
John wrote: ” This is because were it to be the individual, a president could string out terms of say 110 days in succesession and never have his appointments confirmed.”
But that has been done in the past under the same law. During the Clinton and Bush administrations, if memory serves.
Although your theory sounds plausible on the surface, it falls apart under examination. The federal courts can not function without at least an acting US Attorney. That is the reason for part (d) of the law cited above. It allows the court to make a temporary appointment in case a vacancy is not filled. But even that may be unconstitutional because of separation of powers. It is surely unconstitutional to permit the courts to usurp executive power.
The real problem here is that the Senate has not been confirming US Attorneys because Democrats are abusing their blue slip privilege and Republicans won’t change the rule.
What definitely should happen is all the evidence should be presented to the electorate and then have them decide this political matter.
Or we can have a self righteous entitled elite decide it for us as is their want.
I don’t see many signs Russia is interested in a peace deal. These things tend to motivate Russia to keep fighting AFAICT. Where is Europe? AWOL.
SteveF,
The cases against Comey and James were not garbage, unlike the cases James and Bragg brought against Trump. The cases against Comey and James were demonstrably provable and didn’t involve novel theories of the law or deliberate misunderstanding of real estate valuation.
I saw Andrew Napolitano was satisfied with the cases being dismissed for the exact same reason as the appeals court. His interpretation of the law is that the executive branch gets to have a temporary prosecutor for maximum of 120 days and that doesn’t matter if it’s one prosecutor for the whole 120 days or 120 prosecutors for one day each.
The statute of limitations appears to have expired on Comey’s misdeeds regarding unauthorized release of classified material but as deranged as his conduct has been for the last 8 years, I expect he will do something else that will get him in legal hot water. James on the other hand will probably have to sweat it out while the DOJ gets a prosecutor in place who meets the statutory requirements.
John Ferguson,
We completely disagree about this subject.
Trump, and tens of millions of voters (and sitting members of Congress!), believed many of the voting rules changes made for the 2020 election (because of covid) were plainly unlawful under the laws of the states where those changes took place. Oddly enough, those changes were almost all made by Dems, and were nearly all favorable for Biden’s “voter turnout”.
I also believe the FDA withholding the initial covid vaccine trial results until a day after the election (instead of a week before the election when the study end point was reached and the results known) was willful interference in the 2020 election to hurt Trump’s chances.
Yes, for the good of the country Trump should have, like Nixon in 1960, accepted the results when it was clear Federal judges were not going to get involved with challenges to changes in voting rules in close states. But Trump is an asshole, and he refused to do that.
Trump being an asshole doesn’t mean the 2020 election was conducted in a fair and reasonable way. The 2020 election had LOTS of problems.
“The cases against Comey and James were demonstrably provable and didn’t involve novel theories of the law or deliberate misunderstanding of real estate valuation.”
Sure, they are “provable”, but they would never have been brought against anybody else… that is, anyone who Trump was not trying to punish for past deeds. Just as the cases against Trump would never have been brought against anybody but Trump (and his associates).
IMHO, It is all politically motivated prosecution, and terrible for the country.
Find a loophole to prosecute somebody…
Find a loophole to not prosecute somebody…
SSDD.
Amazing how the partisans can find loopholes and where they spend all their time looking.
I’d like to see almost all of this just cease. Obviously some politicians need to be prosecuted but they are also highly targeted by their peers. As has been demonstrated we cannot assume the judicial system will be a fair arbiter of political prosecutions. Beyond clearly criminal matters it is best to be shown to the electorate and have them render judgment.
With regard to overturning the 2020 election, I agree with SteveF on all but one point. He wrote that “Trump should have … accepted the results when it was clear Federal judges were not going to get involved with challenges”. I take issue with that for two reasons.
It is simply not Trump’s nature to meekly go down without a fight. If it were, then he would not be able to stand up to the Establishment the way that he has and to persevere the way that he has. He would not be Trump.
Also, I reject the idea that the courts should have the last say in elections. Elections disputes are ultimately a political matter, to be resolved by the political branches.
Comey clearly broke the law and deserves to go to prison. Unfortunately, the statute of limitations ran out on all but one incident of perjury. And he was slippery enough to probably be able to skate on that.
It seems to me that the case against Letitia James is cut and dried. The case is not based on technicalities or stretching the law.
Tom,
Me too. AFAICT, there is no way to do that until both sides suffer sufficiently to understand why exiting the death spiral is a sensible idea. I don’t think we are anyplace near there. Democrats will continue to use whatever works in the short term. It behooves Republicans to impose a cost if they’d like to see the practice discontinued.
Tom Scharf,
“Beyond clearly criminal matters it is best to be shown to the electorate and have them render judgment.”
I agree, that is how it should be handled (alright, not when gold bars are being hidden in the closet).
Mark Bofill,
I think Trump is doing Republicans no favors with his targeted prosecutions. Yes, open all the hidden files and show voters what was going on with the relentless political prosecutions during the Biden administration. Yes, show how many in the DOJ and FBI abused their positions based on political goals. Yes fire every “career bureaucrat” who was even remotely involved. But better to leave the rest to the voters: ask if they want a repeat performance of the Biden era abuses. If that is what voters want, they can elect Dems next year and 2028…. but at least show voters that Republicans are not equally willing to abuse their offices.
SteveF —
Mortgage fraud cases are detected and referred for investigation regularly. Prosecution is relatively rare but that’s. because they usually don’t have the mountain of evidence against James.
I contend anyone with the kind of evidence available against both Comey and James would have been prosecuted, all the more so if they weren’t Democrats. That’s diametrically opposed to the cases against Trump which wouldn’t have been brought against anyone else precisely because they involved novel legal theories and — in the case of the “mortgage fraud” James alleged committed by Trump, there weren’t even any victims since all the lenders in question said they didn’t take his valuations at face value and did their own due diligence before quoting him rates.
In the case of James, she obtained artificially low rates by claiming the house as a personali residence rather than a rental (business) property. That’s ultimately the difference. Just because Trump is a vindictive a-hole (and no one seriously disputes that he is) doesn’t mean these cases were unwarranted. Comey and James are being protected somewhat from legitimate prosecution due to the fact people know Trump is vindictive.
Tom Scharf wrote: “Beyond clearly criminal matters it is best to be shown to the electorate and have them render judgment.”
I agree that would be best if it were a viable option. But it is not. Showing Democrat misbehavior to the electorate will be ineffective since the media will run interference for them. Meanwhile, Republicans will be prosecuted mercilessly whenever Democrats get the chance.
Mark is right. A cost must be imposed on the Democrats for what they have done. That is the only way to get back to a situation where Tom’s ideal is viable.
p.s. – Maybe retaliation will make it impossible to get back to an approximation of the way things should be. In that case, we had better make sure we are the winners. Denying reality will ensure that we are the losers.
p.p.s – That makes me sad.
Steve,
The voters have already spoken by electing Trump. They clearly want his approach. I no longer believe they are wrong to want that. Fight fire with fire, fair enough. Sure, the house (our Republic) gets damaged by this, but news flash: It was getting damaged anyway.
Shrug.
I think I agree with Tom and I think with Mike that these sorts of things should be handled by the electorate via their elected representatives, but to do it timely would often be impossible, especially with election minshandling.
Maybe the paucity of successful suits during the period from the election to the inauguration suggests two possibilities, one that the judges were biased, and the other that the suits were either meritless or brought incompetently. Or both?
I’m assumng that Comey is guilty of lying to congress which I think is the charge has been proven to your satisfaction.
John Ferguson,
You left out the most important reasons Federal judges would not do anything after November 2020: 1) It was a horrible legal mess that could not possibly be resolved in the timeframe available (Jan 20, 2021), and 2) Federal judges usually don’t like politically controversial rulings….. save for many of the activist judges nominated by Obama and Biden, who happily piss on any established precedent.
Oh, and the SC overturning Roe…. but the SC can piss on whatever they want. District judges? Not so much.
so true SteveF, I suspect that the courts were not the place to establish the legitimacy of the compaints.
I think we can chalk this up as a win for Trump.
The Fordow nuclear site in Iran — after the U.S. attack — has been put to bed, at least temporarily, by Iran. The information comes from the respected OSINT group Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), which uses and publishes satellite photography for its analysis.
According to ISIS:
“The Fordow nuclear site in Iran no longer shows any particular activity since the American strikes of June 2025.”
They describe the site as currently inactive, with “Iran having sealed the breaches in the ventilation shafts caused by the U.S. strikes. The entrances have also been backfilled, with no indication that Iran has carried out any inspections.”
ISIS has published a full report covering Fordow and several other Iranian nuclear sites that are now under reconstruction:
“Comprehensive Updated Assessment of Iranian Nuclear Sites Five Months After the 12-Day War”
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/comprehensive-updated-assessment-of-iranian-nuclear-sites-five-months-after-the-12-day-war
editing help from ChatGPT
Mike M.
investigating further your correct note that the law does not preclude daisy-chaining 120 day appointments to avoid seeking senate confirmation, it does look as the only challenge could be that doing so is a constitutional issue. If the constitution requires confirmation of these appointments but a rule has been accepted probably for convenience so the office can be filled pending confirmation, and a second appointment is made which restarts the 120 day clock, then constitutional confirmatrion has been avoided.
but whether this is actually naughty has to be adjudicated probably up to eht Supremes,
Isn’t is amazing how the media can spread so much ignborance and so convincingly that i was convinced. I had read that daisy-chaininng appointments was against statute which is nonsense.
Mark, I know you are sick of reading this stuff but the Blackboard is the only place I can discuss these things with people I generally disagree with but greatly respect.
I’ve got no issue John. Discuss away. I’m distracted anyway, Gemini has been whispering in my ear teaching me the secrets of the Universe. It’s like an ongoing episode of the old cartoon ‘Pinky and the Brain’ so, I’m occupied.
I did an instant replay in my mind on that Fordow nuclear site being mothballed….
Since it’s primarily a storage facility for semi-finished product, Iran will not be needing to store more product for the foreseeable future because they can’t make any more product that needs to be stored.
So it may not be closed down because it was utterly destroyed, but simply because it’s not needed at this time..
Thanks for that Fordow info Russell.
john.
The statute on temporary US Attorney appointments is definitely flawed.
Positions need to be filled and Senate confirmation or refusal will not always be prompt. So there needs to be a mechanism for interim appointments. The Constitution provides one: recess appointments. Congress has chosen to make those impossible by pretending to never recess. Instead, they have created a different mechanism. The necessity of some mechanism does not make the specified mechansim constitutional.
Part of the substitute mechanism is to adopt the fiction that interim appointments are inferior officers who do not require confirmation. I think that is reasonable, but only if there is a time limit on such appointments. And there needs to be a mechanism to prevent unlimited daisy chaining of interim appointments.
I think the right way to deal with the problem would be to tie interim appointments to a requirement that proper appointments be submitted for Senate confirmation. That way they could not be used to circumvent the requirement for advice and consent of the Senate. They would only provide a way of circumventing Senate foot dragging.
The current mess is due to Trump trying to deal with a Senate that is not doing their part of the job.
you’re welcome, Tom. I sort of thought you would appreciate it.
did you look at the satellite pictures in the report?
Uh huh … if you can’t apologize for that edit then the BBC board needs to go. The suggestion here is the BBC News head resigned because she wasn’t allowed to apologize. What a clusterf***.
Ex-BBC board member criticised chair’s handling of bias crisis in resignation letter
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y9rz7eggko
Mike,
I have no particular issue with anything you are saying. I do want to remind everyone that both sides play this game. Tommy Tuberville from my next of the woods held up military nominations and promotions [during Biden’s administration]. I wouldn’t say Tuberville wasn’t doing his job though. Sometimes being a PITA and gumming up the works is the job, at least arguably.
I think this may be just part and parcel with the business of politics.
mark,
That is a fair point. But even if Tuberville was being unreasonable, he was not gumming up the process just for the sake of gumming up the process.
Also, IIRC the generals whose promotions were held up were still doing their new jobs, just at their old rank. It was not like there was a break in the chain of command that prevented the military from functioning or that some judge got to parachute in generals of his or her choosing.
All the key figures were hauled before the MP’s today for a public hearing. Good for them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cp34d5ly76lt
The BBC is still covering up the specifics of how and why the edit was made. This “lawyering up” suggests they sense liability. The edit was very likely intentional and given the refusal to alter it later after the facts were pointed out, malicious in nature. Trump has a case here.
I’m no fan of Trump lawfare but if he successfully sues the BBC this may end up giving pause to activist journalism. The BBC had all the systems in place to prevent this type of partisan hackery, the systems failed, and the BBC refused to fix it when it was pointed out.
In my view the decline in trust of journalism is directly connected to this type of activism.
Mike,
That’s a choice way to put it, thanks. I’ll be chuckling all morning. 🙂
The Georgia election interference case has been dismissed.
Curious how when the election is over nobody cares about these cases any more, it’s almost like these things are all about acquisition of power by any means necessary.
Well…. Yeah. It looks like you were hoping no one would notice or talk about it.
More transparent. Like “Blah, blah, blah” [… 54 minutes later] “blahblah blah blah”?
There was a serious error.
“Impression”? This is still such double talk. The edit gave the impression there was direct indisputable evidence he said something he did not say.
Thomas
Yes. I mean, the BBC and other news agencies should really need to ask themselves, “Did we actually make this up?” Because they did.
I don’t know if Trump can win this. But if the suit makes news programs recognize they need to serious fact check— and also consider the possibility they seriously check when caught, that would be a good thing.
The major problem with the BBC edit wasn’t that they took so long to acknowledge it or apologize for it but that they did it at all. It was clearly an edit done to distort viewers’ perceptions of what Trump said and did rather than to compress into a broadcast timespan. The fact the BBC took so long to decide on whether to apologize is just frosting on the cake — the director and the entire board should be tossed over this but that’s for the Brits to manage.
WRT the Tuberville holds, I don’t think the situation is comparable at all. Tuberville placed his holds on promotions and appointments to drive home a particular point, not to be generally obstructive. The same thing happened when Cruz blocked appointments of various ambassadors; he was driving home a point about the Nordstream pipeline.
In the case of the Tuberville blocks, it meant the deputy commanders had to fill in as acting commanders (which is sort of what they are supposed to do anyway) and other flag officers had to fill in as acting deputy commanders.
This created some inefficiencies and situations where the acting commanders couldn’t sign certain documents or policies but none of those are really critical — we actually train the US military to be able to operate in the event higher headquarters is unreachable.
The key on the Comey and James cases is how one interprets the statute. The Trump administration clearly interpreted the statute to mean no individual can function in office for more than 120 days without being confirmed while the appeals court and Judge Napolitano interpret it as meaning the position can not be filled temporarily for more than 120 days.
I respect Judge Napolitano but my plain English reading of 28 U.S. Code § 546 (c) (2) conforms more with the Trump interpretation. Then again, I’m an engineer, not a lawyer.
Derek H,
I think the issue is that there are two ways to read “120 days after appointment”. Does it mean “120 days after AN appointment” or “120 days after THAT appointment”? The former would seem to e the judge’s reading, the latter would seem to be the administration’s reading. Like you, I find the latter more plausible.
But then we have “(d) If an appointment expires under subsection (c)(2)” which would seem to make more sense with the judge’s reading. And I think I read that the legislative history supports the latter, as does the argument re daisy chaining appointments.
I think Trump will win when it gets to SCOTUS, if not before, not on the reading of the text but on the grounds that the judge’s reading makes the law unconstitutional.
Mike —
I agree, hence the disconnect. However, the clear language of the statute says “a person … may serve until … the expiration of 120 days after appointment …”
As I said, I’m not a lawyer but that language seems to connect the 120 day expiration period to the appointment of the specific person. If Congress doesn’t like daisy-chaining 120 day periods, they should act on the appointment and vote it up or down. On the other hand, Judge Napolitano IS (or WAS) a lawyer and has far Far FAR more experience with reading the text than I do and interprets the statute the same way the appeals court did.
The BBC relied on their internal review people, including senior management, to decide that they had no institutional bias. It is not even possible for an internal review group to determine whether or not the organization has bias.
ChatGBT:
“The BBC’s internal complaints and editorial-standards system (ECU / similar internal oversight) was the mechanism used to review the issue.
There was no external inquiry (public regulator or independent judicial review) — the resolution, resignations, and public statements all came from within the BBC itself.”
Are we biased?” ? “We checked with ourselves. No, we’re not.”
From the ISIS report Russell linked to it looks like the main nuclear sites of Fordow and Natanz that were attacked have been abandoned for the last 5 months and show little signs of being reconstituted. Many other surface nuclear sites also remain destroyed and hardly touched with debris still strewn about. The attacks were apparently successful in taking these sites completely offline.
The other side of the ledger shows significant new work being done at newer sites (Pickaxe Mountain and 2007 tunnel).
The status of all the existing enriched uranium remains unknown. What Israel / US actually assess is also not known.
My best guess is that the attacks were indeed successful for their near term objectives but Iran has not given up and is playing the long game.
On the Trump v BBC fiasco, this was another example of biased news in the UK – https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/watch-bbc-faces-fresh-allegations-over-newsnight-trump-speech-edit/ar-AA1QqJhk?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Happy Thanksgiving Eve!
From here:
“While mistakes have been made, I want to be absolutely clear recent allegations that BBC News is institutionally biased are wrong.” — Deborah Turness, outgoing CEO of BBC News
“In a public statement, after the controversy over the edited Panorama broadcast of a speech by Donald Trump, Shah defended the BBC against broad “bias claims,” saying those claims were “simply not true.” Shamir Shah, Chair of the BBC Board
So, the only people saying the BBC is not biased is the BBC brass. The same people that created the biased institution are allowed to publicly state that the institution is not biased.
No one else is saying that.
Like I said before…..
“Are we biased?” “We checked with ourselves. No, we’re not.”
Happy Thanksgiving!
This is the first year in I don’t know how long that I’m not cooking and we’re not entertaining. We decided to skip it this year. One of my sons is coming over, and we’re getting carryout from Bob Evans — they have a Thanksgiving dinner special.
But I couldn’t spend Thanksgiving week without baking something for the granddaughters… dark chocolate brownies with mini Reese’s cup inserts.
Image: https://x.com/rklier21/status/1993943847718801803?s=20
Harold W,
Merry Christmas….. err Thanksgiving…. to all.
Afghani Muslim, given asylum by Biden in 2024, ambushes and shoots two national guardsmen in Washington DC.
Officials will investigate to determine his motive.
Sorry, 2021.
Have a winbderful Thanksgiving all. And if any of you do the deep-fired turkey bit, have the same good luck we did.
John Ferguson,
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. I smoked a large turkey breast, after two days in brine in the refrigerator; 4.5 hrs smoke time. Yumm. It will be in addition to the traditional roasted bird, of course.
Jim brined a turkey and will cook. I’ve been assigned pie.
I could never do pie. I can’t get the crust right. if I buy a crust at the store, I know that’s cheating. I can do pretty good.
Does brining a turkey require that it be entirely submerged? Apparently the advice not to leave it in the brine for more than about 4 hours is spurious.
Turkey we bought at Publix purported to be already brined. would you brine on top of existing brine?
John ferguson,
I don’t know anything about pre-brined turkey….. always done it myself.
The ‘brine’ has many things in addition to salt. For turkey, mine are:
brown sugar
garlic
rosemary
thyme
sage
mustard
Lawry’s season salt
bit of tabasco
A few hours would not likely allow penetration of the flavors much beyond the surface. I suspect the recommendation for a short time in the brine is motivated by a desire to not allow the turkey to grow bacteria. But I brine at 2-3C, and the bird never is allowed to warm until it is smoked. I figure the turkey can be kept in 2C brine for at least as long as the sell-by date. I smoke with air (and smoke!) at ~220F, and continues for at least half an hour after the pop-up sensor activates. The smoked bird is completely cooked.
John Ferguson,
I always submerge the turkey.
Brining depends on concentration and time, so yes, “4 hours max” is spurious. 5% salt solution for 8 hours works well for a 5lb chicken. As Steve says, brining in the fridge is the way to go. I recommend brining the day before, washing the excess off the surface, and leaving in the fridge to make sure the salt is equilibrated and to dry the skin. It shouldn’t be necessary to brine a brined turkey.
You can also add sodium tripolyphosphate (STPP), which further resists drying the meat out during cooking. If you’ve ever wondered why store bought rotisserie chicken has a particular texture you cannot replicate. That’s usually why.
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Going to my sisters. My wife will make some sweet potato casserole.
When we cook “turkey” for Thanksgiving, we use standing rib instead. I finally admitted to myself I don’t like turkey that much.
Tough break Tom.
https://babylonbee.com/news/heaven-confirms-people-who-prefer-ham-at-thanksgiving-will-not-enter-the-kingdom
I’m having green bean casserole with my turkey, so apparently my salvation is also in doubt. It’s tough all around.
No… but you can get some maple flavor in there…. 🙂
all this makes me wonder what else I missed on the way to 83. Seems like a lot.
Mark Bofill,
Green bean casserole is always at our thanksgiving table….. not my favorite, but apparently some people really like it. Donno about salvation and green beans, but never gave it much thought.
I am reminded of a Thanksgiving I spent in the Brazilian city of Salvador. There were a dozen or so Americans (all consultants) at the hotel, so the chef sent all a note that he was going to prepare an American style turkey dinner for us.
It was as far away from an authentic Turkey dinner as possible…. the starting materials were selected correctly, but everything was cooked up with traditional regional flavors like cilantro and dende oil (a super-heavy dark palm oil). We tried to be gracious, but we were all suppressing laughter.
Steve,
I remember really enjoying green bean casserole for a couple of years? Five-ish maybe? At some point in my 20’s or 30’s. I have never truly loved it since, but I flirt with it again now and then trying to recreate the magic. You know, now that I explicitly say this I realize, I could probably puzzle out how to make it so it’d be worth eating.
But not now. I’ve already put a standard batch in a casserole dish, it’s in the queue for the oven now. Maybe I’ll revisit it for Christmas and do it properly.
I target brine near sea water salt concentration 3-3.5%). Any more concentrated can dehydrate I think.
The Italians place newly formed Parmesan cheese wheels in saturated brine for several days to dehydrate them quickly before being placed in an ambient temperature storage shed, for up to 2 years…. where they continue to dry. Every month or so any growing mold on the wheels is brushed off. When the outside of the wheel is dry enough, mold growth stops.
Mark Bofill,
Waste of perfectly good green beans. Better to cook them up with butter, tarragon, and a bit of black pepper…. but not until they turn to mush.
That’s good too, for sure.
Speaking of mush. Mushy peas seem to be a favorite component of English Cuisine.
I enjoy green bean casserole. Once a year.
John Ferguson,
I prefer pizza in the UK…. it’s not great, but better than the rest.
Jim and his brothers do most the cooking. I make an apple pie, cranberry sauce and esspresso. I do not make any further suggestions.
Robert likes green bean casserole. He makes that. It uses about 1/4 of a containers of those crispy onions which are subsequently thrown out. What else would you use them for?
SteveF
We have friends in Stratford upon Avon. We stay at the Swan when we’re there, last time 5 days. Food there is wonderful, but I agree that for the most part English and Cuisine don’t belong in the same sentence.
Curries and Thai food at Wetherspoons’ are pretty good. In the ’50s Dad used to call Howard Johnson’s “The curse of the middle class traveler” the idea being that it was safe and in those days it wasn’t easy to find the places the locals liked when on the road.
There are Wethersppons all over the UK often in repurposed banks. One of the ones in Edinburgh is in what was once the top bank there. they’ve respected the original interior, sort of worked around it. We think it’s wonderful.
lucia,
Sprinkle the crispy onions on a salad?
But the recipe calls for a whole container, if you use the smaller one.
To you other old farts, New and Improved vaccines….
About 15 years ago, I went through the process of being vaccinated for pneumonia and shingles.
Since that time, there are new vaccines available for both of those diseases. My doctor advised getting the updated versions and I’m 2/3 of the way through the process. (the new shingles vaccine requires two doses).
If you got the old vaccine, you may want to investigate the new vaccine.
My doctor is conservative when it comes to vaccines he has been telling me to not get the updated Covid shot.
A few years ago, a health care professional told me I should get both the old and new pneumonia vaccines (I had not had either). As a result, I procrastinated. A year later I was told I should just get the newer one, so I did.
Steve: “I target brine near sea water salt concentration 3-3.5%). Any more concentrated can dehydrate I think.”
This would be true if the salt stayed outside the meat, but when it enters, water follows until either equilibrium is attained or no more water can enter, so you increase the water content. Additionally, the extra salt alters muscle protein structure enabling it to bind more water, helping to retain more during cooking.
I guess it primarily dehydrates parmesan because it takes a lot longer to penetrate.
From ChatGPT:
ME:
“I got the old vaccines why should I get the new vaccines for pneumonia and shingles”
ChatGPT:
“Bottom line for pneumonia:
“If it’s been years since your previous shots, PCV20 gives broader, longer-lasting protection against strains that cause severe pneumonia, sepsis, and meningitis in adults over 65.”
“Bottom line for shingles:
Even if you had Zostavax, the CDC strongly recommends two doses of Shingrix because it’s far more effective and long-lasting.”
Mike,
I nursed my wife through two bouts of shingles. She was in great pain and misery from the shingles, even more than from the cancer. I highly recommend a shingles vaccine.
I was surprised by this; I probably shouldn’t have been…
A video of a dog fight between a Ukrainian drone and a Russian drone:
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1994078830600855778?s=61
I got shingles in 1994. We didn’t know what it was so didn’t get to doctor in time. “If you’d gotten here two days ago I would have been able to deal with this”
It wasn’t that bad and eventually went away, but not completely. I could still feel it a sort of helical patch of what felt like a bad sunburn which started on my stomach and wrapped around my right side while climbing up to my neck. Slight itch in riight eye. It has never gone away and I can feel it as I type this.
So the question about the Zostavax was whther it should be taken while even a mild outbreak like mine was present. The label said no, but docs were uncertain. So I didn’t.
In Fall of 2022 it returned with a vengeance. This time I had boils all over my back and stomach pretty much same map as the continuing mild case. I was given a couple of shots and a prescription which were not expected to be curative but more to relieve the pain – which was quite real. It eventually settled down after four months and in the spring I got the shingrex shots.
Maybe I won’t get another major outbreak, but really have no idea.
My brother, Dr. Dr. Ferguson, recommends that you never take or allow to be injected anything whose entire label you haven’t read. If you do read the whole thing odds are high that you will be the only one in the room who has.
THe downside ot this is you will find yourself disucssing this with doc who may be unnerved by your challenge and suggest you decide for yourself.
Maybe Angech has an opinion on what I’ve written above.
One surprising thing, nursing someone through shingles doesn’t give you any immunity, apparently you can’t acquire immunity naturally
Russell,
Did he say why not to get it? I get it when they cover a new strain.
I hope they come up with something more robust that covers more of the virus so it’s harder for the virus to mutate to escape the vaccine. I was always dubious about the claim that the matching spike was going to be “enough” — still pro-vax, but I was aware that the notion that the virus couldn’t mutate away from that particular spike and still be able to reproduce was a theory. None of these were tested in the wild prior to covid because…. duh….
Still, most of us now have some natural immunity now. But… it mutates. So clearly getting a vaccine that works forever and ever is going to be tough.
Russell,
I have been repeatedly told that Shingles is not contagious.
I don’t agree based on my own experience, but the transfer mechanism may be one which few people are likely to be exposed to.
We had entertained another couple overnight on our trawler, Arcadian, in the Chesapeake.
Wife had an active but very mild case of shingles and thought she was on the mend. Arcadian had a head and holding tank. I had not yet upgraded the system to a more commodius (?) one and so the tank had to be pumped following our weekend aboard.
This did not go smoothly for reasons now forgotten,. I had to remove the access plate and blast out the tank with a high pressure hose which resulted in a lot of splatter and a mess. The mess had to be manually removed .
I think you can connect the dots. I did and desptie all sorts of advice that this didn’t make any sense, I have to believe it did because I had shingles within a week of this event.
I’m sure that Mariner SteveF will confirm that no matter how much you might think you are the Captain, you are really the Director of Public Works.
Yukk.
Lucia,
No, he didn’t give me a reason for recommending against the vaccine update for Covid. This was the second year in a row. He told me that.. in hindsight I wish I had asked him why.
John,
My dad was a licensed plumber and through my teenage years I was an assistant Plumber. Yukk doesn’t go far enough in describing it.
(he was also the captain on the city of Pittsburgh fire boat)
Russell,
During the ten years I shared an employer with Lucia’s late father in law, I designed the buildings for a number of wastewater treatment plants. Federal funding was available for upgrading existing primary plants to provide secondary treatment such that a municipality often wa spending 5% of the cost of the work. IIRC 85% federal funds, 10% state and the 5% local.
I loved this work. For the most part, the engineers didn’t care what these buildings would look like so long as the process equipment fit and could be maintained. I had a ball.
But one observation from working on six million gallon/day plants was that the yuck factor declined siginificantly if there was sufficient volume.
John,
My masters degree is environmental engineering with heavy emphasis on sanitary engineering.
I agree the bigger plants have less of a yuck factor
AFAICT any avoidance of the vaccine is based on ineffectiveness and not actual danger from the shot.
Both natural immunity and the vaccine provide some sort of protection against covid serious illness but the data has gotten pretty hazy. They both are now pretty bad at preventing infection, basically zero (or less) after 4 months and not much to start with.
I think the problem with itemizing the protection against serious illness is there is high variability in the strains themselves with omicron derivatives all being less lethal.
The people who tend to get seriously ill are those that are immunocompromised so they like to like to specify performance without that group which is kind of useless.
Basically you can’t tell how effective the shots are. I would still say they are useful if you are entering a near term high threat environment and don’t want to be taken down for a week. I haven’t had one for over a year and then I took one prior to 3 weeks traveling in Europe.
John,
On the yukk factor on big sewer plants….
A large plant we have a large collection system, and it is common in a large collection system to inject ferric chloride for odor control. It works by binding sulfur compounds and preventing them from turning into gas and that makes the flow to the headworks of the plant a lot less nasty.
Shingles is the reactivation of the chicken pox virus which has sat dormant in sensory neurons, I don’t believe being exposed to it causes a reactivation to give you shingles, but you can catch chickenpox off someone with shingles if you haven’t previously had it or been vaccinated against it.
I had to ask grok why you don’t get chickenpox but you do get shingles. The answer is they’re covered by different parts of the immune system. Antibodies in the blood deal with an attempted virus infection and T-cells keep it from creating shingles. T cells decline with age, the antibodies remain more effective. The vaccine boosts the T-cells.
…. More on the yukk factor in sewer collection systems…..
The ferric chloride injection prevents hydrogen sulfide gas generation. Hydrogen sulfide gas is very stinky and very corrosive. But, hydrogen sulfide gas does have a positive effect. It kills all the rats and cockroaches in the sewer system.
Kitchen garbage disposals magnify the vermin problem in sewer systems by turning kitchen waste into bite size morsels for rats.
Tom,
I go to dance competitions and also visit my Mom. I’d like to reduce my likehood of illness if at all possible. So I get the vaccine– so does Jim. But we only get it when it covers a new strain– so a new spike. Given production schedules this may be utterly useless. But we do it.
I’ve heard it does. But I don’t know where I’ve heard that from. But you could easily get exposed and not know it. So… who knows? I got double vaccinated for Shingrix. Shingles are painful.
Oh… I think I read something about Monkey pox recently on the intertubes. Maybe it’s….. back….
https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/recent-chicago-mpox-outbreak-contained/
“Recent Chicago mpox outbreak now contained, officials say
By Adam Harrington, Desiree Evans
Updated on: November 26, 2025 / 4:25 PM CST / CBS Chicago
”
If I were not vaccinated against smallpox…. Well… I might search out cows with cowpox and vaccinate myself. Hahah!
DaveJR,
I’d had chicken pox when I was a kid along with the other afflictions kids got in the early ’50s, Mumps, Pneumonia, Measles, but not Scarlet Fever which some of the other kids got. There must have been a couple of others that I can’t remember.
I can’t remember which of these sent me to bed for a month, but it happened more than once and led to my mom teaching me how to read at 4 and letting me work my way through the Reader’s Digest pile. I’m not sure that was a good idea in retrospect, but did learn at an early age that you couldn’t tell a joke from the Digest because everyone else already knew it.
Cow pox is still around…
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-44484599
Well…good news. He’s now immune to small pox! I bet monkey pox too. 🙂
Well… yeah. Few people hand milk cows or even deal with cows. Plus, lots of us were vaccinated against small pox. The vaccinated are all dead or aging out now. But for a while, humans sort of couldn’t get it.
People younger than… oh… 60 are pretty much universally vaccinated against small pox. I think I only got the vaccine because I lived in Latin America? It was eradicated in the US before it was eradicated in the world.
Evidently, you can’t really catch cow pox from a person– or at least it’s difficult. But, yeah… we’ll be seeing it from time to time.
John,
I got measles in El Salvador. We had to post pone my first communion. I got chicken pox later in the US. I don’t know how long I was out for either. I never got mumps or german measles, scarlett fever or pneumonia.
John Ferguson,
Yup, that part of cruising was tense. I never had much in the way of equipment issues, but I once made the mistake of not getting the discharge valve, downstream of the macerator pump, not all the way closed after emptying outside the three mile state limit (I followed the rules!). I then proceeded at about 7.5-8 knots for a couple hours, which was just fast enough for water flowing under the hull to be driven back into the waste tank, which overflowed….. into the rear bathroom toilet. Which in turn overflowed into the rear bathroom.
Fortunately, the rear bath was a self-contained moulded fiberglass unit with a raised doorway, so the mess was contained…… but was still a terrible mess, with a high yuk factor.
I still miss my boat most every day. Proving, lest there was any doubt, that love is not rational.
My high school, Pittsburgh Central Catholic, is playing in the semifinals Pennsylvania football championship [again].
I’ve been able to watch a number of their games this year on Youtube Premium
I am anticipating being able to watch the semifinals tomorrow night.
“Harrisburg vs. Pittsburgh Central Catholic: PIAA 6A football semifinal preview”
https://www.pennlive.com/highschoolsports/2025/11/harrisburg-vs-pittsburgh-central-catholic-piaa-6a-football-semifinal-preview.html
John Ferguson,
Anyone over age 50 for sure carries the virus dormant in their nervous system, which can erupt into shingles at the least opportune time. It is contagious, but only to people who are immunocompromised or have never been exposed to the virus or been vaccinated.
The good news: the chance of recurrence of shingles during your lifetime is between 1.2% and 9%, depending on the strength of your immune system. So repeated immunizations after having shingles once seems silly to me, unless you are immunocompromised. I had a moderately painful case about 12 years ago.
I don’t know who told anyone that shingles is not contagious. They may have misunderstood: you don’t get shingles from someone with shingles but you can get chicken pox from someone with shingles if you haven’t had chicken pox (or been vaccinated against it).
When I got shingles, I had to wear a mask all the way home and was quarantined for 2 weeks — could have been longer but the doctor was satisfied at my 2-week follow-up that I was no longer contagious. The experience was horrible — I had blisters all along my right side from spine to sternum. The only way I attempt to sleep was directly on my left side. I absolutely got the Shingrix vaccine this past year.
On the other hand, while I am very willing to read up on any studies showing the flu vaccines to be more effective than they have been historically, I don’t bother with those. I took them annually without fail while I was in the military (had no choice anyway) but was skeptical once I read how they are prepared. Guessing at the 3 most prevalent strains 2-3 years in advance is a questionable practice in my opinion and wasn’t terribly effective in my personal experience. I got the flu every 2 or 3 years when I was taking the vaccine, haven’t had it once in the 17 years since my last dose. Anecdotal “evidence” at best but it’s stronger than the evidence FOR the flu vaccine that I’ve seen thus far and I am willing to be persuaded that I’m wrong.
DerekH,
My mother’s doctor told her to stay away from infants or children not yet vaccinated when she had shingles because they could catch chickenpox from her. I don’t know if her doctor was correct or not. But she didn’t go to my nieces wedding where there would be small children.
I got the shingrix vaccine because my brother and mother got shingles and reported it was painful. I’d like to minimize painful maladies if possible.
DerekH
So this is supposedly historic efficicacy
Do you agree with this efficacy and just think that’s not enough to motivate you to get the vaccine? Or do you dispute this historic efficacy?
(For me, this is sufficient efficacy to get a vaccine.)
SteveF
Funny that I’m sitting here and can draw the outline on my trunk of the current very minor bout of shingles. It’s more or less constant with slight variations in the sense of it – like sunburn.
John Ferguson,
How long ago did you have the first bout of shingles? Is this current case less severe than the first?
Derek H,
I haven’t had the flu in 20+ years. I got very sick (flu symptoms) for a day after both of the last two doses of flu vaccine (the second was about 10 years ago). I’m not very interested in getting another dose.
If I’d ever gotten sick from a vaccine, I’d be more reluctant too. However, I’ve never gotten sick from any vaccine.
The Russian perspective on the various “peace plans”
Simplicius’s Garden of Knowledge | Substack
.
“It gets as tiring writing about the phony ‘peace settlement’ charade as it likely does for you reading about it. However, Putin has finally delivered the definitive word on the entire matter during a press conference on his Kyrgyzstan trip, which is worth taking note of because it answers key questions that lingered in people’s minds—particularly those of the concern troll disposition.
The biggest confirmation from Putin was that Russia was not given any real ‘draft treaties’ but rather more an informal list of points for discussion—this appears to be what Russian figures were referring to when they said nothing of consequence was really presented to Russia:”
.
“…Statements by Vladimir Putin regarding the proposed Ukraine peace plans:
— There was no “draft peace treaty,” only a set of questions they suggested discussing
— Overall, we agree that this could serve as a basis for future arrangements
— Every word of the peace plan on Ukraine needs to be sat down and discussed seriously
— At present, some points of the plan sound ridiculous..”
Here’s the deal:
• Putin doesn’t want particularly want peace.
• Putin wants all of Ukraine.
• Even if Putin eventually accepts a “peace plan”, he will soon resume killing Ukranians until he has all of Ukraine.
• It’s pointless to note but “Putin says blah, blah…..” Putin has lied, lies now and will continue to lie.
On vaccines, I had a very serious reaction to small pox ( 1960’s ). It cost me a high paying job at the time as I came down with the reaction the first day I was to report for work..
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Needless to say the job went elsewhere. As a junior in high school, the summer job paid $50-$60 day with the min wage at $1,25/hr if I remember correctly.
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I tend not to get the flu shots and it’s been years since I have had the flu or a bad case of the common cold. My significant other gets colds and/or flue yearly.
lucia —
I’ve heard the same thing about exposing unvaccinated infants or kids. Interestingly, at the time I was diagnosed, my sister’s first son was 3 — she not only wanted me to visit while I was contagious so her son could get chickenpox “naturally”, she joked about renting me out to her circle of mother-friends with kids of the same age for the same purpose.
As far as the flu vaccine goes, 40-60% efficacy is about what I remember from the articles I’d read 15 or 20 years ago; I’d even be willing to stretch and allow it might be 50-70% effective. I’m not really interested in introducing a foreign body to my body that’s basically a coin flip on whether it’s effective. My anecdotal personal history doesn’t help the case for the flu vaccine; I don’t think the vaccine gave me the flu (or any other disease) but it doesn’t seem to have helped any.
I might be more interested in 50-70% or even 40-60% effectiveness if the consequences of the disease were more drastic but so far, I’m not seeing it. So far, I think a regimen of washing my hands and just not congregating in large crowds is far more effective at preventing contagion than the flu vaccine.
Lucia,
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For “lies”, please refer to the Ukraine implementation of the various Minsk agreements for a number of very good examples of the term.
SteveF
my shingles commenced in 1994 – whole sad tale is recounted upthread. It has never gone entirely away.
John Ferguson,
If it never went away, it sounds like permanent nerve damage. I have read that is always a possibility with shingles.
SteveF. One of the features of having something like this is I know what it is and so far it hasn’t shown any signs of going after my right eye more aggressively although I can feel it in that eye.
i’ve never run into anyone else with this experience which may be why I’ve encountered a doctor other than my brother who was at all interested, and I’ve had sojme marvenlous doctors over the years.
yes, nerve damage.
Lucia,
Putin wants Ukraine in Russia’s ‘orbit’…. but maybe not complete control. I suspect Putin will only accept a settlement that leaves Ukraine under Russian influence. I doubt killing Ukrainians is Putin’s objective.
SteveF-
He wants complete control of Ukraine. If that’s what you mean by “orbit”, then we agree. He will kill Ukrainians until he gets that. Specifically killing them is not his objective– but killing them is entirely acceptable to him. Lack of full control of Ukraine is not acceptable. I don’t know if this is what you mean by killing them not being his objective. But no, I don’t think his specific objective is killing them– his specific objective is to have control of Ukraine.
Re flu vaccine effectiveness, there is this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.01.30.25321421v3
They tracked over 50K Cleveland Clinic employees; 82% of which were vaccinated. Those who were vaccinated were about 30% more likely to get the influenza test and 27% more likely to test positive compared to the unvaccinated. As the authors put it: “the proportion of tests positive among the vaccinated was not different from the proportion of tests positive among the unvaccinated”.
Why would you get tested for influenza? I think it is because you have the “flu”, i.e. a flu-like illness. So the results imply that the the vaccine had the same effect on flu caused by influenza as on flu caused by other viruses. In other words, no effect.
The error bars would make that an effectiveness of roughly <20%. That year, CDC reported a 50% effectiveness.
lucia,
You left out something important. It looks as if Ukraine really needs the war to end. So their best option might be to accept an unpalatable deal provided that they get sufficient guarantees from the west that they will be able to withstand future aggression by Russia.
Ukraine is in a horrible spot. They need to decide which is the less awful option.
MikeM
I made a list of what Putin wants. The thing you mention is not something on Putin’s wish list. So it doesn’t belong on that list.
Ukraine has always been in a horrible spot. The fact is: They don’t know that Putin will stop killing or what he will do to ensure he has ever fuller and fuller control. So yeah: they are in a bad spot. The fact that Putin wants so much does put them in a bad spot.
Lucia
Welcome to power politics. Nothing has changed over the last thousands of years. There is no “right” or “wrong”, only what “is”.
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“the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”
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Thucydides presents the sentence as part of an ultimatum from Athens to the city of Melos demanding tribute. The Melians having rejected the order, their city was taken by force and their population enslaved and massacred by the Athenians.
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Ukraine needs to surrender to get the best peace allowed, otherwise they face complete destruction.
MikeM
And you are the kind who is likely to visit the doctor. That’s a big “and”. I am the kind who hates to go to the doctor. My brother in law is the kind who goes at the drop of a hat. Also: people in delicate health who go to the doctor a lot are more likely to get tested for anything.
Ed Forbes
Surrendering doesn’t necessarily mean they get the ” best” peace allowed.
You’ve always been for Ukraine surrendering. Heck, you’ve predicted imminent devastation since day 1.
Everyone agrees they are, have always been and continue to be the underdog. But it’s not at all clear the any sort of surrender is ” better” for them. But those who are pro-Putin do, for some reason, assume things will be better for them after a surrender. We don’t know that. Maybe they will be worse. Or better. We don’t know.
I might add that the quote is one of the first items of study presented in my International Relations and Political Science courses, so saying it is somewhat relevant is a bit of an understatement.
Lucia
Without direct military intervention by the US, Ukraine is toast. As direct US intervention increases the threat of Nuclear War, there was 0 chance the US would directly intervene.
The end result is therefore preordained. The only questions to be open for discussion are “how long” and “at what cost”
Ed
I didn’t suggest otherwise. But that doesn’t mean surrender is actually better for them.
“at what cost” is also a question if they surrender. Assuming they will be well treated and everything will be rainbows and sunshine after a surrender is naive.
I supported assisting Ukraine with its defense primarily because people like Putin need to see there’s a cost they are unwilling to pay for their aggression. If one doesn’t stop it early, they will keep pushing and it will eventually cost far more blood, sweat, tears, and treasure to stop them later.
His end goal is nothing more or less than recreating (and maybe surpassing) the reach, extent, and control of the Soviet Union albeit as the “Russian Federation”.
The problem here is that Putin is playing a massive game of Chicken with the West. He either doesn’t care or is intentionally giving the impression he doesn’t care about the cost in Russian lives and armaments to outlast Ukraine and the West. One only has to listen to Western media to think he’s correct that he can outwait us.
Trump wants to end hostilities and the casualties but I am afraid a Putin Peace will be like the Munich Compromise.
lucia,
Yes, some people are more inclined to get tested than others.
I wrote: “Why would you get tested for influenza? I think it is because you have the “flu”, i.e. a flu-like illness. So the results imply that the the vaccine had the same effect on flu caused by influenza as on flu caused by other viruses. In other words, no effect.”
Some people with the “flu” are more likely to get tested than others. Would that change the fraction of positive tests? I think it could if those who are more likely to get tested would be more likely to get tested even if they just have a head cold. That would lower the positive rate for that group. But that would make the vaccine effectiveness even lower than ignoring that effect.
I have seen the claim that the design used by CDC to evaluate vaccine effectiveness is pretty much certain to overestimate effectiveness, possibly by a very large amount. I can not claim to understand the argument.
Surrender would be a disaster for Ukraine. A distasteful peace deal would be preferable to surrender.
I share Derek H’s concern that the Trump brokered deal might end up like the Munich deal. I am also concerned that those in the West who want to see the war continue are determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Sigh.
Mike M,
I agree that Ukraine is very likely facing an unpleasant end to the war. But Russians marching into Kiev is not better than a very distasteful negotiated settlement near the current battle lines.
Derek H
Welcome to the world of Realpolitik where fighting to the last Ukrainian is justified by expedience to your own perceived interests. Not judging, just pointing out the situation for living in the real world .
One thing I do have to point out is that you don’t offer a path to Ukraine victory. Fighting after the doom of defeat becomes obvious is not heroic, it’s a form of suicide.
Ukraine needs to take the example of Lee at Appomattox and surrender to end the war, not disband into guerrilla warfare and complete the destruction of the people of the South.
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Realpolitik
The study of the forces that shape, maintain and alter the state is the basis of all political insight and leads to the understanding that the law of power governs the world of states just as the law of gravity governs the physical world…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik
I think that if Putin believed that it was certain Russia would win at an acceptable cost, then there is no way he would agree to a peace deal, pretty much for the reasons lucia gave.
One could interpret that as indicating that Putin thinks there is a chance Ukraine could win. But that might not be so. He might just think that the cost of continuing the war to victory is too high. In that case, it might be possible to get a peace deal that does not amount to Ukrainian surrender.
Mike
Yes. Some people who have the flu will not get tested. And some people who don’t have flu will are more likely to get tested to. That also changes the fraction of positive tests.
Entirely wrong.
You are assuming you know the correlation between over testing and getting the vaccine. You don’t. There are many factors– and people who get vaccines don’t necessarily over test. They may be more vulnerable– but that doesn’t mean they over test.
Ed
I’m not seeing how battling over Ukraine has anything to do with Dereks perceived interests. I don’t see it as having anything more to do with his interest than yours.
And giving in when the person you are fighting will still kill you is also a form of suicide. You, Ed, seem to just be assuming some sort of benevolence on the part of the victors– here Putin. There is no particular reason to expect benevolence from him.
Thanks for the definition of Realpolitik. Sadly, linking the definition isn’t the same as actually understanding reality.
I have no idea what the best path for Ukraine is. But I think it’s naive to assume that Putin will be benevolent after a surrender. I think it’s even naive to assume he will stick to any agreement.
Lucia
Upon any Ukrainian surrender, in no way would I stick around if I was a member of Azof units of their National Guard. They will be lucky if they are only shot on sight. I expect their treatment will be similar to other SS units captured by the Soviets in WWII.
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Otherwise I would not expect to see harsh consequences. The Chechnya / Russian war was much more intense and personal ( except for the Ukraine Azof) than the war in Ukraine and no wide spread persecution resulted upon Chechnya surrender.
Why is it that Russia is held to a higher account over Stalin than Germany was to Hit***?. Much is made of the fact that Putin was a young officer in Soviet Intelligence while ignoring the German Chancellor who was also in Soviet Intelligence? I find the ability to criticize one and ignore the other fascinating.
Current Russia Federation is not the Soviet Union under Stalin. The Soviet Union under Khrushchev and those following was not the same as under Stalin. Stalin was a monster in the same vain as Hit***. Russia should not be held to any lower standard than Germany as both had monsters in kind.
Ed quotes Putin with that ‘to the last Ukrainian’ bit. Good to know this about you, Ed.
One only has to look at the gentle treatment Putin has provided to the occupied parts of Ukraine to understand what will happen should Putin prove victorious.
Which isn’t going to happen, by the way. Russian military might has triumphantly occupied 0.4% of Ukraine this year at the trivial cost of 400,000 casualties. But it’s been a great year for the Russian economy, right? Right? Oh–umm, never mind.
Russia! Russia! Russia!
October production year-on-year (statistics department)
Tractors: -47%
Elevators: -35%
Internal combustion engines: -42%
Passenger cars: -47%
Buses: -25…-40%
Year to date 360.8 billion rubles in losses for Coal Mining
Russia: “The Ministry of Internal Affairs announced a shortage of almost 200,000 police officers.” Because the salaries are too low.
Russia: “Siluanov: The Cabinet is preparing new measures to reduce the shadow economy.”
“”The reduction in budgetary momentum and the increase in taxes, VAT in particular, also do not create opportunities for investment and development,” added Alexander Shokhin”
Realpolitik aside, Russia is toast. If Ukraine capitulated tomorrow, Russia would still be toast.
AvtoVAZ switched to a 4-day work week from September 29
Thomas Fuller,
Maybe Russia ‘is toast’. But the World Bank data doesn’t show it so far:
https://worldscorecard.com/scorecards/russian-scorecard/gdp-per-capita-ppp/
Of course, the World Bank data could be very wrong, but I suggest caution in accepting most any information about the Russian economy. Truth is always the first casualty…..
Thomas Fuller,
The reason most Russian coal companies are losing money has little to do with the Russian economy or the war in Ukraine. The international price for bitumen coal (what is burned in power plants) has fallen drastically:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
Russian coal consumers pay the international price unless they have other contractual arrangement’s.
World-wide coal mining capacity is greater than demand, and that has been driven mainly by switching power production to natural gas (to a lesser extent by increasing wind turbine power).
To protect its (very large) coal industry, China has placed import duties on Russian coal.
Ed Forbes
Sure. But I think you are trying to change the subject to special subsets of people. I’m talking about all Ukranians. I doubt many people who are not members of Azof will feel safe either.
Given the stunning lack of insight into things you’ve shown since 2022, I would pretty much never rely on your expectations.
This has nothing to do with Stalin or Hitler. No… adding *** doesn’t change the intent of your rhetoric. (But beside that, who in the heck is holding Russia to a higher account over Stalin? No one here. That’s who.)
You seem to be under the impression the name “Putin” means “Stalin”.
Russia: “China increased its coal purchases from Mongolia in October and reduced its imports from Russia by 18%.
“The Russian government is seeking ways to help Russian Railways, which has accumulated a 4 trillion ruble debt, according to sources.” Russian Railways is 100% owned by the Russian Government.
“Yakutia’s Finance Minister, Ivan Alekseyev, reported that payments to combat veterans in Ukraine have been suspended due to a lack of budgetary funds.”
Russia: “Due to budgetary problems, the Khakassia government has cancelled the 1.1 million ruble payment from the regional treasury to the families of soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine”
Could go on all day… Russia is toast.
“Half of all clothes and shoe shops in Russia have shut down….[due to] drop in incomes & slowing economic growth.”
“The electronic budget system shows a 5.82 trillion ruble deficit as of 20 November 2025.”
Russia: “The State Duma passed the bill raising VAT to 22% in its second reading.” Effective January 1, 2026So, a few days ago, small businesses were complaining about how a lot of them may go bankrupt. And that related to this lower threshold for having to pay VAT from 60 million rubles in annual revenue to 10 million.
“The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft agley.”
Well, my plans not to cook a turkey this year didn’t work out. My son’s family just got back from a week in the Smokies, and my daughter-in-law asked if we could do a traditional turkey-sandwich lunch today.
My assignment: a turkey breast and a cranberry compote.
The cranberry dish is the most colorful thing that ever comes out of my kitchen. Here’s today’s creation:
(Photo at link)
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1994770432474386726?s=20
As I’ve mentioned here before, Russia’s interest in taking all of Ukraine has a geographic logic behind it. The core idea is simple: Russia has almost no natural defensive barriers, and the geography of Ukraine is central to that problem.
ChatGPT summarized it:
• If Russia doesn’t control Ukraine, a hostile power can move toward Russia across the flat, open European Plain.
• Russia has historically been vulnerable precisely because of that flat terrain.
• Ukraine sits at a narrow geographic corridor between the Carpathian Mountains and the northern marshlands.
• Controlling all of Ukraine would give Russia a defensible border.
• This thinking runs deep in both Russian and Western strategic traditions.
The key point: you don’t reach the geographic “bottleneck” until Western Ukraine.
So Russia’s current control of eastern Ukraine doesn’t solve its strategic problem. From a purely geopolitical perspective, partial control offers very little advantage—the defensible terrain lies hundreds of miles farther west.
here’s a link to a relief map showing the bottleneck between the mountains and Belarus in Western Ukraine:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1994781511455830136?s=20
This is where Russia needs to be to defend itself
Russell,
The problem with your argument is that there is no bottleneck north of the Pripret marshes. That would be the logical path to invade Russia proper.
Quite a disconnect between the Russian economy numbers cited by Fuller and the World Bank numbers cited by SteveF. A big part of the difference is that Fuller cited civilian production numbers while the World Bank includes production of stuff meant to blow up or be blown up.
Mike, your post:
“The problem with your argument is that there is no bottleneck north of the Pripret marshes”
Mike, North of Ukraine is Belarus and Belarus is already a puppet state of Russia. Russia needs western Ukraine to complete the bottleneck at the Carpathian mountains to Belarus.
(and north of that is Russia and the Baltic sea)
Ed —
I’ve studied warfare for a little over 40 years so I’m well aware of realpolitik. In my opinion, realpolitik is frequently used as an excuse by spineless diplomats who are are exactly who people like Putin want to see across the negotiating table.
People like Putin are barbarians. They only respond to power. Putin took Crimea when he did because he sensed Obama and the then-current leadership in the West would let him. He refrained from expansion during Trump’s first term because he didn’t know how Trump would react and then he resumed as soon as Biden took the oath of office because he against sensed a paper tiger.
History shows us that the costs in human suffering and economic treasure only increase the more or the longer you placate these bullies. The only way to get them to stop is to put the screws to them so they realize their bullying will cost them more than they will get from it.
This is one of the areas where I differ from Trump or at least the public image Trump gives. Trump likes to give the opposite party a way to say “yes”. With people like Putin, Xi, and Khamenei, this is a mistake. one that will cost us (the world) more in the long run and Ukrainians more in the short run.
Derek H,
Trump is a transactional negotiator, and wants to give people both the means and the motive to get to yes.
Yes, Putin is terrible (murders his opponents!), but Russia has already paid a high price in blood and treasure, so he may be motivated.
I predict Trump will oversee a ceasefire in Ukraine during his term in office, and the killing will stop.
I predict Thomas Fuller will hate the terms of that ceasefire. (Because continued killing is preferable? Donno.)
I predict that many Ukrainians who fled the country will return as rebuilding of infrastructure begins.
Derek H,
Putin, if placed in a rouges gallery evil leaders, is neither uniquely evil nor even unusually evil. We deal with these types of leaders all the time, and will continue to when it is in our national interest.
Derek H wrote: “History shows us that the costs in human suffering and economic treasure only increase the more or the longer you placate these bullies.”
Is that so? Could you give examples?
There is more to history than Hitler. And even with Hitler, I think your statement is an oversimplification.
The Munich agreement, the Peace of Philocrates, the Hoare-Laval Pact, Aethelred the Unready paying the Danegeld. For starters. Derek’s not wrong about there being historical examples.
The Munich agreement was indeed strategically stupid. The Peace of Philocrates and the Danegeld both brought temporary peace. It is not clear that either led to anything worse than what would have otherwise happened. The Hoare-Laval Pact never went into effect.
So I guess appeasement fails once every thousand years or so.
On the other hand, there are many examples of countries maintaining a degree of independence by paying tribute. And the near century of relative peace in Europe between the Congress of Vienna and WW1 was maintained in part by a policy of appeasement.
Appeasement doesn’t fail ‘once every thousand years.’ It fails every time an aggressor’s ambitions are not limited to the specific concession you just gave them and they have the power and will to take more.
Obviously…
Well… “relative” peace still involves the Crimean War, the Russo-Turkish War, the Italian Wars of Independence, the Brothers’ War and the Franco-Prussian War…..
I think I see goalposts moving.
It is certainly true that appeasement does not always work. Sometimes it leads to a lasting peace and sometimes the pause in hostilities is short lived. But that is not the initial claim that I challenged.
Derek H wrote: “History shows us that the costs in human suffering and economic treasure only increase the more or the longer you placate these bullies.”
In other words, appeasement never works and always leads to a worse result. At a minimum, Derek H seemed to claim that as a rule appeasement leads to a worse result.
It is pretty clear that had the Allies acted sooner against Hitler, the resulting war would have not been as bad as the war that happened. But the reason for that was that Hitler was an anomaly (not the only one in history) in that he could not be appeased. Most leaders, even tyrants, have specific goals rather than ever expanding conquest.
Look.
You can say ‘I don’t give a hoot about the Ukrainians, they aren’t my problem’ and that’s fine. You can say ‘There’s nothing we can do that we are prepared to do to prevent Russia from winning eventually’ and that’s also fine. You can say all sorts of things with reasonable utility. But don’t try to pretend that appeasement is some sort of brilliant general strategy, because it sucks monkey balls in the general case. If that’s what you need to do to feel better about watching Ukraine fall, you’re out of luck; I’m not playing along.
MikeM
Sure. And if Putin’s specific goal is to take over all of Ukraine, Putin isn’t going to be appeased unless he gets all of Ukraine. That’s an argument against thinking you can appease him by giving him less that all of Ukraine.
Lucia,
“Putin isn’t going to be appeased unless he gets all of Ukraine.”
Please define “gets all of Ukraine”. Occupies it militarily? Completely controls the government? Exerts significant influence on policies (domestic, foreign)? Something else?
I really doubt there would ever be a long military occupation,… too much chance for terrorism. Putin remembers Afghanistan.
SteveF,
I think he won’t be satisfied unless he completely control the government of Ukraine. That may or many not require stationing troops.
Maybe.
I still think he will not be appeased until he has complete control of the Ukraine’s government. I could be wrong– but I think that’s what he wants.
He may back off if he absolutely loses. Sort of like Napolean had to eventually conceded defeat. But I think he is given a portion of Ukraine, he will use that as a pause and then resume in less than 10 years. Of course, he could die before then. For that matter, he could die tomorrow. But I think he wants complete control of Ukraine and always had.
I also think he and his people lie about motives and intentions.
lucia wrote: “And if Putin’s specific goal is to take over all of Ukraine, Putin isn’t going to be appeased unless he gets all of Ukraine. That’s an argument against thinking you can appease him by giving him less that all of Ukraine.”
That is a sound argument.
What I object to is the claim that if Putin takes Ukraine, it means that he will then attack Poland. That might have been true if Putin had been able to take Ukraine at minimal cost, although I am skeptical. It is definitely not true after what has transpired the last 4 years.
Appeasement by itself is not a strategy. It only makes sense in combination with deterrence and/or as a way to buy time if time might be on your side.
A peace deal that lets Russia keep a big chunk of Ukraine only makes sense for Ukraine if there is a solid plan to prevent Russia from taking the rest of Ukraine. That would presumably require a way to ensure that further aggression will impose an unacceptable cost on Russia. It is not clear to me how that might be done.
lucia: “I still think he will not be appeased until he has complete control of the Ukraine’s government … I think he is given a portion of Ukraine, he will use that as a pause and then resume”.
I agree. A peace deal will not last if it is built on the assumption that Putin can be trusted or that he will be satisfied with what he has gained so far. It must be enforceable.
Putin is 73. He seems to be in relatively good physical shape for that age, so there is a good chance he will live another decade. Of course, it is Russia, so he could be pushed out before he dies, or even pushed from a 4th story hospital window….. should he ever get sick enough to be hospitalized.
I will not be surprised if Putin accepts considerably less than his maximal demands during negotiations……. but only time will tell. I think what he won’t ever go along with:
1) Ukraine joining NATO,
2) Troops from NATO countries ever stationed in Ukraine,
3) Loss of a secure land bridge to Crimea,
4) Accepting that Crimea and the Donbas are Ukrainian territory,
5) Permanent economic sanctions against Russia.
MikeM
I haven’t made that claim. Maybe he would. Maybe he wouldn’t. If he’s so inclined– and he may be-, he’ll at least wait to reaccummulate resources.
If I were Poland, I wouldn’t want him to have Ukraine.
Me neither. I think Ukraine conceding parts of Ukraine is very dangerous for Ukraine.
SteveF
During negotiations? Sure. But he also lies. So I don’t think he’s stick to his end of the deal.
lucia wrote: “I haven’t made that claim.”
I never said you did. Many people do. Derek H made a very similar statement, to which I objected.
Russia is making claims on Ukraine in their version of Regime Change & the Monroe Doctrine
Russia was very clear that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a Red Line.
VP Harris made a statement in Poland that NATO membership for Ukraine was being expedited
2 days later Russia invades Ukraine
Ed Forbes
That’s their line and they are sticking to it. Doesn’t mean it’s their reason. It’s hard to believe that someone things Russia being “very clear” means something is the unvarnished truth. ‘Cuz you know people and politicians lie.
Russian wants to control Ukraine. Would something imperilling their ability eventually control Ukraine possibly motivate them to move up the time table? Sure. But that wouldn’t matter if they didn’t want to control Ukraine.
And the whole reason they don’t want Ukraine in Nato is because they want to control Ukraine.
Mike
I word searched Poland. You seem to be the first one to mention Poland on this thread.
In 2002, Putin did not object to Ukraine’s growing relations with the NATO alliance and said it was a matter for Ukraine and NATO. In 2005, Putin said that if Ukraine wanted to join NATO, “we will respect their choice, because it is their sovereign right to decide their own defence policy, and this will not worsen relations between our countries”.
taking Poland would make strategic sense for Russia in that it would further narrow the gap at the western bottleneck to the European plain.
in fact, the ideal defensible geographic borders appears to me to be the old Soviet Union borders.
History, geography, and why Russia needs to move its border toward the West…
With help from Chat GBT:
Russia’s geography has shaped its security fears for centuries. The country’s western border lies along the vast Northern European Plain, a flat and largely unobstructed route that has historically offered invading armies an easy path toward Moscow. Napoleon, the Kaiser’s forces in World War I, Hitler in World War II, and even earlier Swedish armies all marched across this same corridor. With few natural barriers until deep inside Russia, defense traditionally relied on retreating, trading land for time, and letting distance and winter wear down the enemy.
This geography is central to why modern Russian strategists view Ukraine as vital. Ukraine sits at the broadest part of the European Plain, and its western edge contains the only meaningful chokepoint: the Carpathian Mountains. If Ukraine aligns with the West, NATO forces theoretically sit on that open approach to Russia’s heartland; if Russia controls Ukraine, the defensive line shifts hundreds of miles westward. Agree or disagree with the logic, this strategic view explains why the flat corridor across Ukraine remains a core element of Russian geopolitical thinking.
Stream Alexander Nevsky to get an idea of how the future looked in Russia in 1938. Not to mention that music is Prokofieff and Filming Eisenstein at his best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq4PaJfod4w
Thomas,
Sounds like he was very clear. To echo Ed Forbes use of “clarity” in statements as some sort of proof of …. whatever.
I mean… Putin might have said something entirely different if he already had a puppet state in Belarus, had already implemented is plan to invade Georgia, already held Crimea&Dombas, yada, yada… His rhetoric appears “situational”. He focuses on explaining why he gets to take what he’s taking now. Otherwise, he’s totally peaceful and accepting of the existence of other nations.
Right now, he’s probably “very clear” he has no designs on Poland. Taking Ukraine will not result in him later moving on Poland. Well… and maybe it won’t. Maybe he actually had no desire to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO back in 2005 . His desires changed only after… well.. he acquired power over other things.
Poland understands the geography of the European Plain and recognizes that they sit at one of its narrowest pinch points. They have been in a headlong dash to “make Poland the strongest military in Europe.” Poland doubled their defense spending between 2022 and 2024 and plans further increases.
If I were Poland, I’d do the same. I’d do it no matter how clear Putin was claiming he had no designs on Poland. Because Putin clearly saying A doesn’t mean he won’t switch to “not A” fairly soon. History has shown this feature of Putin.
It is wise for Poland to have a strong military.
I don’t think it matters if Putin has designs on Poland. It only matters that Putin is sane. Russia has had all it can handle with Ukraine. Poland has five times Ukraine’s GDP, a much stronger military than Ukraine had 4 years ago, and is a member of NATO. As long as Poland keeps its military strong, Russia will not dare to attack.
The question isn’t whether Ukraine should keep fighting, they probably should given the history of the Russian menace.
The question in the US and elsewhere is whether we should keep paying for it. My answer is “meh”. I have never seen Ukraine as a historical allie.
Trump should keep asking the question on what would it take to stop this war on an interim basis, nothing wrong with that. Both sides can say no.
The full weight of the Russian army has a problem taking Ukraine so I doubt Putin will entertain an attack on NATO. Russia’s performance here has been dismal. They may ultimately prevail but I very much doubt they are meeting their own expectations.
The Russian Empire has existed in various forms for centuries, and throughout its history it has been invaded time and again. It survived the Mongols, Napoleon, and Hitler. Russia takes the long view. This skirmish with Ukraine is just another chapter. When it ends, they will lick their wounds and rebuild. They still possess vast untapped natural resources, and many millions of Russians remain loyal to the motherland. Poland and NATO would be wise to take the long view as well.
Mike M,
“I don’t think it matters if Putin has designs on Poland. It only matters that Putin is sane. ”
Indeed. I visited a couple of Polish military bases. They are deadly serious and very motivated….. and constantly modernizing their equipment. They have 200,000+ active troops (more than France or Germany), and more relative to population than the USA. Combine that with NATO membership, and only a crazy Russian leader would want to attack Poland, and would likely face a mutiny if he tried.
As I recall some people on this blog were certain that Putin would not invade Ukraine.
Russell,
I am skeptical of your recollection (maybe Ed?). It might be that some people were skeptical about Putin’s intent.
Glad I bought memory for a computer build a few months ago. Then, 32GB DDR5 was $122. Now it costs about $322! The downside of AI…
I was certain Putin would not invade Ukraine. up until the day he did.
My theory was that an invasion would be so destabilizing that even Putin would realize that there was a significant risk that it would cascade into a general European war.
Obviously I was naive.
I don’t remember what my position was. I’m wrong so often it’s uninteresting to keep track.
I’m pretty sure I had no position on whether Putin would or would not invade Ukraine. I’d have to go look. I would very much doubt I would claim he certainly would not. I’m pretty sure my general view has always been that
(a) Putin will lie.
(b) Putin will make up stories– which is some what different from lying.
(c) Putin will use heavy aggression if he thinks it will benefit him and he’s inclined to think it will.
(d) Putin might defer using aggression if he thinks he has some other way of advancing his desire for expansion.
Because of (d) I am never certain Putin will invade or start a war. He might not.
Lucia, your post:
“d) Putin might defer using aggression if he thinks he has some other way of advancing his desire for expansion.”
Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine was essentially a “non-invasion.”
When Russia moved into Crimea in 2014, it avoided the appearance of a conventional military assault. Instead of tanks flying Russian flags, the Kremlin used unmarked soldiers — the so-called little green men. Moscow insisted these were “local self-defense units,” maintaining plausible deniability even as these forces seized airports, government buildings, and key infrastructure. The goal was control without the political and diplomatic cost of an open attack.
Edit help from chatGPT
Mike, Your post:
“I am skeptical of your recollection (maybe Ed?). It might be that some people were skeptical about Putin’s intent.”
You may be right. I can’t be certain it was here Mike. That’s why I introduced my remarks with ‘As I recall’. I have participated in other blogs and it could have been somewhere else, but I definitely argued with someone about Putin’s intent to invade Ukraine.
I have a question for you all.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been experimenting with how to create posts for this blog (and for other communications). My current process is to dictate into Google Docs, take the rough text, and feed it into ChatGPT. I then ask ChatGPT to clean it up.
So while the ideas are mine, the final text is polished with AI assistance. The process is faster and easier for me, and I think the result is better.
My question is: does this violate any blog etiquette? Are others doing something similar?
WOOHOO!
“Pittsburgh Central Catholic powers past Harrisburg to second-straight 6A title game
And for the second straight season, it was a vaunted Vikings squad, led by a ferocious offensive line and stellar run game, that stamped a passport to the PIAA 6A championship.”
I have a question for those more up on the details of the Ukraine war. I have heard it said of the current proposal, that it would cede about 20% of Ukraine’s territory to Russia. My question is, how does that compare to the status quo ante, that is, with Russia effectively controlling Crimea and part of the Donbas?
TIA
It would double the amount of territory in Russian hands. More importantly, it would cede the ‘Fortress Belt’ blocking Russian forces in the East (the rest of Donbas) from Kiev. Which is why it’s very important for the Russians and a complete non-starter for the Ukrainians.
Tom Scharf, the US pretty much quit ‘paying for’ Ukraine almost a year ago. To our everlasting shame.
We still provide a modicum of satellite intelligence, but we are busily selling the weapons we used to give Ukraine. And JD Vance says we can’t keep selling weapons forever, which comes as a shock to US defense companies.
What a clown show we have in this country.
Harold, you asked:
“How does that compare to the status quo ante — that is, when Russia effectively controlled Crimea and part of the Donbas?”
A word of caution: be wary of anyone quoting numbers without providing sources.
According to recent analyses from the Russia Matters project at Harvard’s Davis Center (updated November 19, 2025), Russia currently controls about 19% of Ukraine’s territory — roughly 115,515 square kilometers (44,601 square miles). This includes Crimea, the pre-2022 portions of the Donbas, and incremental gains made in 2025.
For context, Russia’s control has stayed in the 18–20% range throughout 2025, with an estimated 4,900 square kilometers (about 1% of Ukraine’s total land area) gained this year.
I have no facts or figures on the amount of territory proposed in the current peace plan.
Full report and interactive maps:
https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-nov-19-2025
Other sources — including the Institute for the Study of War and DeepStateUA — provide estimates that align closely with these figures.
ChatGPT supplied editorial assistance
Harold, regarding your other question about the proposed peace plan — Fuller has it wrong.
I ask Gock, this is his work:
“This framework, initially drafted with input from Russian proposals and reviewed by President Trump, requires Ukraine to recognize Russian control over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—totaling around 20% of pre-2014 Ukrainian territory (approx. 120,000 sq km). It includes forced withdrawals from Ukrainian-held pockets in Donbas (~14.5% of the region) and freezes current lines elsewhere, exceeding Russia’s de facto holdings of ~19% (115,515 sq km).”
Bottom line it increases from 19% to 20%.
Dave JR,
I believe most AI data centers don’t use DDR5 RAM, they use much faster (more energy efficient, more expensive) memory with 1Kbit or 2Kbit wide data transfers and ‘stacked’ memory cells that connect vertically rather than horizontally. I understand these memories often mount on top of a graphic processor, to shorten/speed transfer paths.
Of course, the same equipment might be used for both types, which could lead to shortages of DDR5. But I thought the ‘stacked’ memories were produced on different equipment.
I don’t think so, Russell. Russia currently holds 19% of Ukraine. Giving Russia Zaporisha, Kherson and the rest of Donbas and Luhansk is also and an additional 20%.
ChatGPT thinks my answer is too simplistic: “Second, part of the “19%” number already includes some of those territories — e.g., occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, etc. If Russia is demanding control over territories they already hold plus those they partially hold (or never held), you cannot simply sum “19% + 20%” without double-counting overlaps or contested zones.
…Given the current information, the best you can say is: “Russia controls about one fifth of Ukraine; its maximum territorial demand would give it control of roughly one third, assuming full occupation of the requested areas” — and emphasize this as a hypothesis, not a certainty.”
I can’t believe anyone uses Grok…
Russell,
I see no problem with your posting procedure provided that you carefully read the edited version to ensure it still says what you meant to say.
Thomas Fuller wrote: “It would double the amount of territory in Russian hands.”
Compared to before the war. It is pretty much the same as the current territory controlled.
Fuller: ” More importantly, it would cede the ‘Fortress Belt’ blocking Russian forces in the East”
That small amount of territory is indeed the big issue. Ukraine can’t give that up. Even the DMZ idea could be a problem unless there is a way the ensure that Russia does not simply occupy the area in violation of the treaty.
Thomas Fuller wrote: “What a clown show we have in this country.”
Have you moved back to the US?
Thomas Fuller,
Ukraine is not in NATO. We have no formal obligation to defend it, so it is optional. Feel free to send a donation to the US treasury along with your loan forgiveness check ha ha.
No doubt this kind of thinking is common in Spain specifically (2024 it spent 1.28% of GDP on defense) and the EU generally which feel entitled lately to others defending them. Just because the US wisely prepares for these type of events does not equate to them being obligated to defend others who do not.
It is proper for the US to demand the EU step up to defend their own borders.
Russell,
I do not believe this violates any blog etiquette, no.
I think it’s a fine idea. I probably ought to blush to admit that I don’t care enough about the quality of my posts to follow such a procedure, but I don’t seem to have a lot of ‘blush’ left in me these days.
Mike and Mark,
Thanks for your feedback.
Mark, this was becoming a necessity for me with my shaky fingers and shakier brain. When I went back and read some of my earlier posts, I was embarrassed by all the errors I had made.
An added bonus is that it’s much easier for me to dictate and have ChatGPT clean it up than to type and edit everything myself.
Spain is much like Canada when it comes to defense. Spain’s entire northern border is protected by France, just as Canada’s southern border is protected by the United States. Neither country faces any realistic threat of being overrun by a land invasion unless its much stronger neighbor is defeated first.
Canada spends about 1.3% of its GDP on defense, while Spain spends about 1.28%.
Thomas, your post:
“I can’t believe anyone uses Grok…”
I use Grok for the most difficult tasks because it’s a product of Elon Musk, and everyone knows how brilliant he is and what a great American patriot he is.
I think it’s worth getting tested immediately for flu and Covid if you get sick to be able to get the appropriate antiviral drug. You only have about 48 hours after becoming symptomatic to get tested. I get the flu vaccine every year, but have given up on Covid shots. I only have a local reaction to the flu vaccine. If I had a systemic reaction like SteveF, I would not get the shot.
DeWitt,
Can you just drive up to the pharmacy window and get tested?
Is it covered by Medicare?
Very interesting update:
Dual flu / covid home tests are now pretty cheap. The same rules applies. A positive results is likely accurate, a negative result is less reliable.
https://a.co/d/eOSjPX1
You may behave differently depending on whether you have the flu or covid.
I get the flu shot because I have no reaction to it. I have minimal but detectable reaction to the covid shot.
The efficacy of the flu and covid shots are about the same depending on the variants. They have about 50% protection and last ~6 months with the flu maybe being a bit better.
Just because everyone needs to know the answer. Gemini 3:
Tom Scharf,
Thanks for that. Now I will go to hurl. 😉
Maybe better to have an exhaust fan with a quick room turnover; three room volumes in 10 minutes gives you a 95% odor reduction. 20 minutes: 99.75% reduction.
What Russia seems to want is the remainder of the Donbas and the rest of the territory defined by current lines of control.; so ~20% of Ukraine instead of ~19% now. My guess: Russia will fight until they reach that point, unless they can gain control of that Donbas territory via negotiations. Absent negotiations (or a big change in conditions on the ground), it might take a year or more for Russia to take the remainder of the Donbas.
Dave JR,
My desktop system has 48 GB of DDR4 RAM, and a 3 GHz Core i-7 Intel processor (8 cores). It is fast enough that I never notice anything taking very long to complete. I guess I was lucky to have purchased a couple years ago when memory was cheap; the same memory today would cost more than half of what I paid for the whole system.
Observation: Compilation of source code that took nearly 2 minutes in 1998 is now completed in a few seconds (same compiler), and some of that few seconds is writing the executable file to a flash drive…..
Thanks for the responses about Russia’s control of Ukrainian land before the war and currently.
From Russia’s perspective, I think the first 7% (pre-2022) came much easier than the more recent 12%.
There aren’t a lot of things that are CPU bound for the consumer much to the chagrin of semiconductor companies.
Video editing mostly and a few esoteric things a few people have. I’d say video games but that is now dominated by the graphics card.
I remember the horror of processes having to page to disk with low memory, I kept my eye on that disk access light like a hawk. That slowed things down tremendously.
Now with bountiful RAM and crazy fast SSD’s the world is a nice place compared to compiling code from floppy drives. The very first system I had only had a tape backup, a lot of code got eliminated by an audio tape defect.
With the advent of 1.58 BitNet AI, we may see the importance of DDR5 increase for LLMs. As I understand it (and admittedly my understanding remains a lot sketchier than I want it to be) 1.58 bit LLMs are LLMs that are quantized to give the same performance as floating point models using only -1, 0, and 1 values instead of the floating point values. The arrangement and training is slightly different but the result ends up performing the same. The beauty of this is that it can be implemented without all the massive vector multiplication, so it reduces the mandate for the GPU hardware in running the model. It should be noted however that the training process is still GPU intensive and involves full bit weights. This may be the future. Really huge 1.58 bit models aren’t available yet, so nobody gets particularly worked up about them right yet. We will see!
In a shocking development (ok not so much), a German court has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian wanted for sabotaging the Nordstream pipelines. Appears the USA was either complicit or maybe directly involved. Biden, of course, lied about it, like he did about most things:
https://jonathanturley.org/2025/12/01/a-german-court-may-have-just-shattered-one-of-the-biden-eras-biggest-lies/
Obviously you lose something during quantization of that level. Exactly what is lost would seem to be model and user dependent. At some point 1.49 + 2.49 = 3 and I may require more precision, but cramming a model into a fixed piece of silicon for a hunter / killer AI drone might be good enough.
Making a JPG image smaller works for a while but not forever. If you want to read license plates then size matters.
Tom,
As I understand it (and again, I really don’t understand it) it has to do with structural changes. From a logical perspective you break the activation function out from one node triggering many different ‘states’ to several different nodes, each only triggering one state. This is how they do it without losing performance. They do note that … I forget the technical speak for this .. you have to have room, is how I understood it. [I’ll] read more about it and maybe I’ll be able to discuss it more intelligently later. As it is, I was like everyone else; I thought it was neat but call me when the big models come online 1.58 bit heh.
Okay, here is Gemini setting me straight in its pathologically inoffensive suck up way:
You could build an accurate ADC by iteratively comparing it against target voltages one at a time and doing a binary search. One can imagine that more decision making nodes versus better precision can result in the same answer most of the time. However there is probably some measurement of model entropy or complexness that covers both of these and they may be equivalent.
Power efficiency is a huge deal in AI models right now as I understand it.
I wrote a huge amount of fixed point math and I hope to never revisit that again. Dynamic range and precision worries, overflow, underflow, etc.
Tom Scharf,
I often do integer math in software. With 32 bit integers, I don’t find it terrible so long as the starting numbers aren’t too large, so that you can get the final precision you need without decimals by multiplying/dividing by powers of ten.
Very precise calculations could be a PITA I guess.
On “appeasement”
Neville had to make hard choices. He was in a leadership classic “lose-lose” situation.
One take on this I saw posted.
“Neville Chamberlain was not naive. He knew Adolf Hitler was dangerous. But he also knew that Britain was not ready for war.”
.
“The Munich Agreement was not a surrender; it was a strategic pause, a way to buy time for Britain to prepare for the inevitable conflict.”
.
Most embedded CPU’s have floating point libraries now that are perfectly fine as long as you aren’t doing 1000’s of computations a second. They usually also have a “fast” float library that dumps some of the IEEE compatibility for improved performance. You must use this judicially.
Depending on the CPU even integer multiples can be long (<10 but mostly single cycle now) and integer divides are always computationally expensive, ~50 cycles. I go to great extents to avoid divides.
My rule of thumb is emulated FP will take 100x longer than an integer.
But yeah, endless scaling, shifting, boundary checks, keeping things on a power of two if possible, allow the compiler to handle multiply and divides by constants, and on and on and on. You can get serious high performance with some effort, they can even be higher precision as FP only use 24 bits for the mantissa.
But … welcome to future and most low cost ARM variants now have an internal FPU (at the least the ones I choose, ha ha).
Ed
But that comment as it stands is itself a bit confused. It wasn’t a strategic pause. Because Chamberlain didn’t see it as a pause nor did he intend it that way. Britain in 1938 was badly unprepared for war. Munich did end up buying them time. That eventually helped later when the fighting finally came.
Chamberlain didn’t intend Munich as a temporary stall while preparing for an inevitable war; he genuinely believed that Hitler’s ambitions could be contained by appeasing them. Munich ended up functioning as a pause– by accident, not design.
Chamberlain’s appeasement had negative consequences. It encouraged Hitler, demoralized smaller states, and helped convince the USSR that Britain and France wouldn’t stand firm.
Appeasement wasn’t some sort of masterful delaying tactic on Chamberlain’s part. He actually thought appeasement would appeaseHitler and prevent war. It didn’t do that.
I mean.. if Chamberlain had intended it as a delaying tactic it might have been a good strategy. But that wasn’t what he intended.
Tom Scharf,
Yes, there are FP libraries for the processor I use. But they can be preposterously slow. I avoid FP calculations where possible….. which is essentially always.
A processor with hardware FP would change the calculus, so to speak.
When the leftist Guardian publishes this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/29/russia-ukraine-peace-deal
You can be certain negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are near. The interesting point in the article: Yes, a negotiated end of fighting that gives Russia control over Ukrainian territory is appeasement, but it is still a deal the Ukrainians should take.
My personal view is that Ukraine would have been far better off if they had made a distasteful deal in March 2022, trading control of Crimea and the Donbas for peace (remembering that Russia already controlled Crimea and much of the Donbas). The Biden administration (via Boris Johnson) appears to have convinced the Ukrainians to not accept those terms.
lucia is mostly correct re the Munich agreement. But I’d like to add a couple things.
Chamberlain did not start mobilization until 6 months after Munich, when Germany invaded the rest of Czechoslovakia. That pretty much puts paid to the idea that his purpose at Munich was to buy time to mobilize.
Czechoslovakia was not insignificant. They had a strong military and an advanced arms industry. The loss of Czechoslovakia weakened the Allies and strengthened Germany. That hurt the Allies when war came.
Prior to Munich, the USSR was allied with France and Czechoslovakia. After Munich, Stalin shifted his strategy to rapprochement with Hitler.
Munich left the UK and France in a worse spot when war finally came. It was a massive blunder.
SteveF,
The March 2022 deal was far from complete and might never have come to fruition. But it was wrong for the US and UK to pressure Ukraine to pull out of those talks, which were likely Ukraine’s last, best hope.
Another factor in killing those talks was the discovery of the Bucha Massacre. That made it politically difficult for Ukraine to treat with Russia.
SteveF,
I’m dubious that Ukraine would be better off if they accepted a peace plan in 2022.
1. Russia already had Crimea and much of the Donbas.
If territorial concessions were enough to stop the war, 2014 should have been the end of it. Instead it led to a larger invasion.
2. The reported 2022 terms went far beyond territory.
Russia wanted limits on Ukraine’s military and veto power over its policies — conditions that would leave Ukraine unable to defend itself.
3. There’s no solid evidence the U.S. or U.K. “blocked” a real peace deal.
Ukraine had its own reasons to think those terms were unsafe.
4. Ukraine wasn’t bargaining over land, but over survival.
If the aggressor’s goal is to dominate or absorb you, concessions don’t buy peace — they buy time for the next attack.
Given the actual pattern (2008 ? 2014 ? 2022), the more likely outcome of a 2022 deal is a pause, not a resolution. So sure, we might have fewer people dead between 2022 and today, but it would have all just restarted. Russia would have restarted– just as it has in the past.
One thing that might have made a deal possible in April 2022 is that Ukraine had just won the Battle of Kiev after halting the initial Russian advance well short of its goals. It had become clear that the war was not going to plan, so Putin might have been looking for a face-saving way out. A return to pre-war de facto borders in exchange for Ukrainian recognition of those borders might have provided that. We shall never know.
Such a deal might well have been just a pause rather than a permanent peace. But in 2022, Ukraine was ill prepared for war. So a pause might well have been to their advantage.
It seems plausible that Russia was never going to stop in Ukraine until it was met with force. If they negotiate an end to the war now they may not stop in the future either, but at least their future calculus will include a likely robust defense from Ukraine.
Mike M,
“….Ukraine had just won the Battle of Kiev after halting the initial Russian advance well short of its goals.”
Yes, that is right. By that point the Russians knew that it was going to be a costly slog, and western countries all had their hair on fire, promising unlimited support for Ukraine. I still think that was the point where the worst could have been avoided. And the US treasury could have been $150 billion better off.
WSJ Gift Article: Europe’s Green Energy Rush Slashed Emissions—and Crippled the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/europes-green-energy-rush-slashed-emissionsand-crippled-the-economy-e65a1a07?st=N65mRZ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Long article on the EU’s green dreams not exactly working out so far.
Tom Scharf,
Turns out some dreams are actually nightmares.
Stupid, useless global warming policies have set the world back by $trillions. Sensible policies would have reduced GHG emissions much more at much lower cost. Those sensible policies could still be adopted. I am not holding my breath.
Elon Musk: “Any device that can be controlled via computer or phone can be controlled by a Neuralink implant”
Video of Neuralink controlling a robot arm:
https://x.com/neuralink/status/1995919644398408073?s=20
I’m less concerned about Europe being overrun by Russia than I am about Europe being consumed by socialism from within.
Steve F, this article in the Economist echoes some of your sentiments: “The Kremlin is close to crushing Pokrovsk, a vital Ukrainian town. “Even as Ukraine raids Russia, it is losing another key battle…”
Of course, the date of that article was August 22nd… 2024…
“ POKROVSK: The price Russia has paid in November alone is staggering. Ukrainian commands credibly assess Russian casualties in the broader Pokrovsk direction at more than fifteen thousand killed and wounded for the month, with daily losses regularly exceeding six to eight hundred men during the most intense periods.”
current battle map:
https://x.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1995522597296246868?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Thomas Fuller,
It is clearly a costly slog for Russia to gain land. It is a cost they seem willing to bear. As noted upthread, with no negotiated ceasefire, at current pace it could take the Russians a year or more to control the remaining territory of the Donbas region. Of course, prediction is often hard, especially about the future. That said, I expect negotiations will start some time in the first half of 2026.
I really doubt that NATO countries want the Russia–Ukraine war to end. They seem to be the ones dragging their feet the most in the negotiations. As I’ve said before, for very little money and no cost in blood, they are watching the Russian military machine be decimated — slowly, but most assuredly.
The OSINT site Oryx runs a verified tally of Russian equipment losses. In November 2025, they list losses of 59 tanks, 178 armored infantry fighting vehicles, and a whole lot more. Link:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
This is maybe twice the number of tanks Russia is able to produce per month. And Oryx numbers are considered minimums:
“Oryx Blog / OSINT-based trackers — independent catalog of ‘visually confirmed’ losses. Their methodology requires photographic or video evidence, which means their published list is likely a lower bound, but it is very useful for verified losses.” — ChatGPT
SteveF
Sure. This is why what the Putin would like it to just be given the control in a negotiated peace. Then he could be “appeased” for a little while during which time Putin will probably re-arm and re-organize and commence seizing more land– resulting in deaths of more Ukrainians.
Of course, if — as he would prefer– the Ukrainians are totally disarmed, seizing the rest of Ukraine might result in fewer deaths because he might be able to do it more easily and quickly next time.
I don’t think ‘appeasing’ Putin is a path that results in Ukraine existing as an independent nation and also not having many, many Ukraniain deaths. Putin likely prefers to seize Ukraine with deaths– if he can get it at the negotiating table, it will cost him less too. But that doesn’t mean he’s not perfectly willing to kill Ukrainians now or in the future. He will kill them as long as he doesn’t get control of Ukraine in some other way.
Is it possible that Putin would not have agreed to a settlement in 2022 because he might have thought he could get the whole place with the sacrifice of a few hundred thousand troops?
Maybe no-one was willing to settle, except us.
john ferguson wrote: “Maybe no-one was willing to settle, except us.”
I think we (and some of our European allies) may have been the only ones NOT willing to settle.
I have no doubt that Ukraine would have been willing to settle, but perhaps not on terms Russia would have accepted.
I think it likely that Russia would have been willing to settle, but probably not on terms Ukraine would have accepted.
But I think that Biden and company wanted the war to continue as long as possible, in order to drain Russia and, hopefully, finish Putin. As Russell suggests, that might also have been true of some of our European allies.
It’s worth reflecting on Russia’s confirmed, total losses — and remembering that these are losses where the OSINT site Oryx has documented photographic evidence. These numbers are not estimates; they are the minimum visually confirmed losses.
Since the start of the war, Russia has lost at least:
• 4,211 tanks
• 9,600 armored vehicles
• 166 fixed-wing aircraft and 168 helicopters
• 28 naval ships
• 987 self-propelled artillery guns
• 533 self-propelled rocket launchers
• 110 radar systems
• 352 surface-to-air rocket systems
• And a whole lot more
Source:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
We interrupt your geopolitical ruminations for this brief bulletin: Matt Van Epps won the special election by 9 points in Tennessee. Reports of a tossup race appear to have been somewhat exaggerated. As Trump would say, thank you for your attention to this matter!
but they should’ve won by a lot more….
“Despite loss, Democrats overperformed in bright red Tennessee House race”
The elections of last month and this month do not bode well for the midterms for the Republicans.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/02/tennessee-aftyn-behn-matt-van-epps-democrats-00674118
Mark Bofill,
Ruby-red districts are not going to flip. But competitive districts are clearly at risk. Mid-terms are low-turnout races that favor the more motivated party. Dems are a lot more motivated than are (tranquil) Republicans. Unless something very drastic changes, Trump and the Republicans in Congress had better get as much done as possible in the next year, because after that it will be impeachment hearings 24/7, and no legislation will pass.
The government may be ‘shut down’ as much as it is open, because there is zero common ground on fundamental issues like immigration, welfare, universal medical care, overall spending, taxes, and wealth confiscation.
Last night there was a discussion on one of the challenges facing those who would gerrymander. Some part of a district which is felt has more than enough Democratic votes situated somwhere?? near one that doesn’t have enough can have some of it’s geography joined to the other district. It had never occurred to me that the incumbent in the district to be carved up to contribute votes to the other distirct might not favor this. For example if he/sh has been running 15% margins and the change may reduce it to less than 10% maybe it won’t look to good to the incumbent who now might actually have to work to win.
Maybe this was obvsious to the rest of you if not to me.
Another consequence of the Ukrainian war is an exacerbation of the Russian population decline and it’s long-term effects.
From the Atlantic:
“A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics”
“Every corner of Russia’s economy is experiencing personnel shortages, while war casualties continue to shrink the able-bodied population.”
“Russia’s future will be characterized by a smaller population. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has virtually guaranteed that for generations to come, Russia’s population will be not only smaller, but also older, more fragile, and less well-educated.”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/a-russia-without-russians-putins-disastrous-demographics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Further reading……. from the Carnegie endowment:
“Russia’s Current Demographic Crisis Is Its Most Dangerous Yet”
“ The next generation of Russian leaders will likely inherit a massive demographic crisis, with potential immigrants scared off and the coffers empty. All of that will threaten the country with irreversible demographic contraction, the consequences of which will be felt for many generations to come.”
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/09/russia-new-demographic-crisis?lang=en
John Ferguson,
Yes, the issue of unhappy incumbents, who’s very safe districts become less safe to make a different district “lean” toward the party in power, has always been an impediment to extreme gerrymandering.
Where needed (for example, voting rights act stipulated Congressional seats), gerrymanders “pack” undesirable (opposing party) voters into districts which overwhelmingly vote for the opposing party, in order to avoid pissing off incumbents in more competitive districts.
The simple math is the most reliable: how far from proportionality is a state’s House delegation? If it is way out of whack, then gerrymandering is almost certainly the reason. Yes, I know people often claim that where the number of representatives is wildly disconnected from the party vote totals in a state it is “just they way the voters are distributed”. That is almost always a bald faced, shameless, lie. Politicians gerrymander ~100% of the time. And they lie ~100% of the time… and not just about Gerrymanders.
Lucia,
“Of course, if — as he would prefer– the Ukrainians are totally disarmed, seizing the rest of Ukraine might result in fewer deaths because he might be able to do it more easily and quickly next time.”
Trump’s proposal does nothing like that.
I believe it allows Ukraine a permanent standing army of 600,000, which is, proportional to population, larger than any country save for North Korea, and proportionally FAR larger than any European country.
SteveF
I was discussing Putin’s motives and likely actions, not Trump’s proposal.
I think it should have no limit on the size of Ukraine’s permanent standing army and should provide some guarantee of external back up in case Putin restarts the invasion — possibly from NATO. But as I said: I wasn’t discussing Trumps plan, but rather Putin’s preferences.
Lucia,
I don’t think we can really know all of Putin’s desires WRT Ukraine, but in any case, what I think does matter are concrete proposed terms for a ceasefire. To the extent they have been made public, Trump’s plan is what we have.
Which is not to say that will ever be accepted by Ukraine…. or by Russia. I am sure many people think continued killing in Ukraine will accomplish something worthwhile… I doubt it.
SteveF,
Know? Sure we can’t know. But we can infer with a pretty strong degree of probability.
Yes. And I think whether the number of troops Ukraine is limited does matter. And it should be: no limitation.
Trump’s plan is Trump’s proposal. I think it’s fine to point out its flaws given the probabilities of what Putin wants. Or, looked at another way, I think it’s fine to discuss what Putin really wants when evaluating the likely efficacy of Trump’s plan when we are considering different outcomes.
If it limits their ability to prevent Putin from taking them over, they shouldn’t accept it if not being taken over is important to them.
Putin isn’t “many people”. He is one person. So I agree with you that “many” people don’t support the idea of Putin continuing people to accomplish Putin’s goal is “worth while”. But I think Putin thinks it worth it.
After a long hiatus, my critter cams picked up a coyote last night. It was fully grown and looked very healthy.
If you recall, the predators (bobcats and coyotes) left the area after they had decimated the small prey population (rabbits and squirrels). The small critter population still has not recovered, but my cameras had been picking up two roving house cats for the past week, so perhaps that is what brought the coyote back.
Video: https://x.com/rklier21/status/1996450988342091850?s=20
Second Camera (Lens clouded with moisture): https://x.com/rklier21/status/1996451211323871310?s=20
Google has been trying to get me to use Gemini from within Google Chrome. It shares your Chrome activity with Google servers and gives you AI responses to your queries. I’m hesitant because of the security issues involved, particularly with my banking and financial work within Chrome. I’m wondering if anyone else has experience using Google Gemini within Chrome.
Here is Google’s description of the feature:
https://gemini.google/overview/gemini-in-chrome/
I also asked ChatGPT, “What are the advantages and disadvantages of using Gemini in Chrome?”
https://chatgpt.com/share/69313f1e-5118-8005-8f59-87415055d81c
I found these 2 items very interesting. Gives a grunts perspective on the ongoing war of attrition. I highly recommend watching the review 1st.
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Ukraine War Expert Reviews “2000 Meters to Andriivka”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dDHrcMOZYs
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documentary “2000 Meters to Andriivka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nf4Cgy56slU
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“2000 Meters to Andriivka” documents the toll of the Russia-Ukraine war from a personal and devastating vantage point. Following his historic account of the civilian toll in Mariupol, Ukrainian filmmaker and Associated Press journalist Mstyslav Chernov turns his lens towards Ukrainian soldiers — who they are, where they came from, and the impossible decisions they face in the trenches as they fight for every inch of their land.
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The documentary follows a Ukrainian brigade battling through approximately one mile of a heavily fortified forest on their mission to liberate the Russian-occupied village of Andriivka amid a failing counteroffensive…
Betting markets now suggest ~40% chance Maduro will be out if power by April 1, 2026, and ~69% chance by the end of 2026.
Betting markets also suggest the chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine before the end of 2026 has fallen to ~50%, with little chance of a ceasefire before April 2026.
For the first time since the start of the war, I have to take issue with something the ISW (Institute for the Study of War) posted:
“Ukrainian forces have notably retaken over 50 percent of the territory that Russian forces have seized since 2022, and Russia’s economy is facing several issues that will likely continue to affect its ability to continue a war of attrition in the medium to long term.”
While the statement is technically true, all of the territory Ukraine gained back was retaken in mid-2022. That counteroffensive reduced the amount of Russian-controlled territory to about 18% of Ukraine. Since that time, it has been Russia on the offensive.
It must also be pointed out that in the three intervening years, Russia has gained only about one additional percent of Ukraine — and at enormous cost in both lives and equipment.
…….link to ISW post:
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996451903002304537?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
“I am sure many people think continued killing in Ukraine will accomplish something worthwhile… I doubt it.”
Me too. Ceasefire terms have to be accepted by both sides and it needs to happen in a sliver of time when both sides don’t think they have any advantage to keep fighting.
Russia thinks they have an advantage and until there is serious domestic civil disobedience in Russia he will likely keep going IMO. Russia seems to wear mass casualties as a badge of honor, remind me not to recommend people with kids emigrate there.
Russell,
A quibble: Kherson was not retaken until November 2022. But you are correct that the front has been pretty much static since and that the ISW claim is highly misleading.
Mike,
that whole ISW post reads to me like they are trying to discredit the Trump peace negotiation. They just went too far with stretching the truth on that last paragraph.
Since the failure of their counter offensive in the summer of 2023, Ukraine’s strategy has been very clearly to trade space for time and casualties. They have sacrificed 1% of their territory in exchange for two and a half years of time and 400,000 Russian casualties. Pretty fair deal.
Ukraine apparently knows what most Western commentators (and SteveF) do not–that time is not on Russia’s side.
Everyone who thinks it is not ethical to design hunter / killer AI drones needs to watch that Frontline Ukraine documentary and reassess whether they want their side to be the ones without it.
Russia is betting Ukraine will give up the meat grinder before they do. All things equal they are correct. Ukraine will run out of people first. It is difficult to predict what will change this course of events (Russia protests, Putin dies, Ukraine finally collapses, NATO enters the war in earnest, etc.)
My best guess is Ukraine collapses, Russia becomes a pariah state for the next two decades and NATO makes sure they don’t need to fight a war of attrition.
Thomas Fuller,
Time is on nobody’s side in Ukraine. Especially not those who will die between now and a ceasefire…. which will likely take place under conditions not terribly different from today. Maybe I think this because so many from my generation died in Vietnam, for essentially no good reason. I had the good fortune of a relatively high draft lottery number….. but it could just as easily have been me.
Thomas Fuller:
“They [Ukraine] have sacrificed 1% of their territory in exchange for two and a half years of time and 400,000 Russian casualties. Pretty fair deal.”
There have also been considerable — I don’t know how many — Ukrainian casualties, as well as damage to buildings etc.
Whether that still makes a “fair deal” is debatable. I will stipulate that it is superior to capitulation to the dubious mercies of the Russian state.
SteveF,
It’s true that every day at war costs lives. But unless the peace plan leaves Ukraine largely intact, with an unlimited standing army and a promise that NATO will back up, the risk to Ukraine is that any peace will be short lives. At least as long as Putin is in charge, as soon as Russian rearms, they will come in and start killing people again. And Putin will do that until Russia can control Ukraine.
So the “peace” will not save lives. This is why Ukraine isn’t likely to accept a “peace” that is basically surrendering their safety. At least they won’t accept this unless they actually are driven into the ground. And the reason Russia won’t take anything else is that Putin wants Ukraine.
In contrast, the US could retreat from Vietnam without great fear that the Vietnamese would follow us and attack us on our own soil. We could have done it at any time. Heck, Russia could back down at any time if they wanted to. But the argument of saving lives should be aimed at Russia accepting peace, just dropping their arms, giving up major concessions and so on. Because that’s the only peace that will ultimately save lives.
Lucia,
“At least as long as Putin is in charge, as soon as Russian rearms, they will come in and start killing people again. And Putin will do that until Russia can control Ukraine.”
I gave up on reading minds a long time ago. You state as fact what seems to me speculation. I very much doubt Putin is the single cause for Russian aggression against Ukraine, and his support among Russians appears to remain strong. Were Putin to die from a heart attack tomorrow, There is a good chance he is replacement would share similar priorities
Russia has suffered many casualties and spent a great deal of money. For those reasons alone, I think they will not want to invade Ukraine again any time soon. An expected 3 week campaign has turned into a bloody 4 year battle. The Russians are not so stupid as to be unable to learn from that experience..
“Because that’s the only peace that will ultimately save lives.”
Once again, that seems to me pure speculation. Better to negotiate an end to the killing, which will start saving lives immediately.
SteveF
I hope you recognize your doubts are just as much based on you trying to read minds as my speculations of what Putin wants. But mine are based on his past actions just as much as mind reading. Yours assume he will act differently than he has in the past.
Sure. His replacement is likely to also want to absorb Ukraine. Which means Ukraine has additional reason to want to maintain as large a standing army as they can or want guarantees.
If Russia’s casualties and loss of money were enough reason to make him not attack Ukraine, he’d leave now. Putin isn’t leaving. So I don’t see loss of money or Russian (and non russian) casualties as reasons why Putin wouldn’t invade as soon as he thought feasible. Absent a strong military in Ukraine, or strong guarantees of back up, he’d do it as soon as he can regroup.
Oh? And yet it appears they are “stupid” enough to be perfectly willing to keep fighting and bleeding more. If Putin had “learned” the invasion was not worth it, he’d leave now. He wouldn’t need Trump to suggest any peace plan. He wouldn’t need to keep any territory.
He wants territory and more more than he wants to leave. He hasn’t “learned” the gains in territory are not worth it. I don’t need to read his mind to see this. I can see his actions.
Your claim they are not stupid enough to invade after getting a peace is also pure speculation.
That any negotiation will end killing is pure speculation. And that notion that Russia will accept anything other than all of Ukraine is not only speculation– it is speculation that somehow Putin’s behavior will suddenly change from wanting to gain control of territory to being satisfied with what he’s managed to get. His past behavior shows the opposite.
I’d say speculation he will not change is more likely than speculation that he will change dramatically.
If the peace plan allows Ukraine to keep an unlimited standing army and guarantees NATO will come to their defense, it might be not insane for Ukraine to accept it. Otherwise, they would be nuts to accept it.
Sure it would be nice to end the war now and stop the killing. But a bad peace plan is not going to result in less total killing.
On another topic, fraud in ACA subsidies. In a test with 20 fictitious identities, 18 were approved.
ChatGPT tells me the proper term for what I’m doing here is “talking through my hat,” but here goes.
Unless final peace negotiations severely restrict both NATO and Ukraine, I expect Ukraine to recover militarily much faster than Russia. Ukraine will receive top-tier technology, training, and intelligence support from NATO. Russia, by contrast, will be forced to assemble equipment largely on its own and without Western components.
Ukraine’s economy will be rebuilt with help from the EU, the U.S., and countries such as South Korea and Japan. Russia will have far fewer options and is likely to remain financially constrained for a long time, especially if sanctions persist and Europe continues reducing purchases of Russian oil and gas.
As for a future Russian attempt to reinvade Ukraine: Ukraine will be far better armed, better trained, and better informed. During the last invasion, Russia initially held advantages in technology, intelligence, and experience — and we all saw how that turned out. Ukrainians fought with determination and improvisation, sometimes with little more than farm tools.
If Russia tries again, it will face a well-equipped, well-trained, and well-motivated Ukrainian military.
lucia wrote: “If Russia’s casualties and loss of money were enough reason to make him not attack Ukraine, he’d leave now.”
Huh? If Russia left, Ukraine would just walk in an retake their territory. The correct “then” to your “if” would be “Putin would agree to a peace deal”. He might. Or might not. We shall see.
Ukraine does not need an unlimited standing army. They would not want to maintain, say, a million man army. What they will need is a few hundred K standing army and large reserves.
If I understand Russell, he is saying that Ukraine’s best path to continued independence is economic development to support a strong military, with military aid from the West. I agree. A weak and unprepared Ukraine gave Russia all they can handle. It will be a very long time (perhaps never) before Russia can take on a strong, well prepared Ukraine.
HaroldW,
I am shocked (shocked!) that, given a chance, unscrupulous people defraud the taxpayer.
As I understand it, the principle fraudsters are “insurance brokers” who get a commission from insurance companies for each person (or family) enrolled under the ACA, even if the enrollee is dead, never existed, or exists but is unaware they have been fraudulently enrolled. Of course, insurance companies love every enrollee who consumes no health care!
And the Biden administration loved that the insurers get huge, mandated taxpayer funded payments for enrollees who never make any claims, since that lowers upward price pressure on premiums for actual enrollees….. which is ultimately what they want: only taxpayer funded healthcare.
The thing that is strangest of all: a family of 4 with $120+K annual income still qualifies for taxpayer assistance! WTF?
Russia is evacuating Russian citizens from Venezuela. Maybe they think bad things could soon happen.
Here is a weak and lonely voice bleating in a hurricane: https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-future-of-the-left-in-the-21st
I keep wondering why the guy imagines that strident leftists, who today pretty much dictate Dem policies, are going to suddenly embrace a series of moderate policies they have loudly rejected for decades.
High end subsidies for the ACA are a Trojan Horse for socialized medicine. Everyone knows taking away benefits once granted can be political suicide.
MikeM
Of course. And Russian won’t stop killing people leave because Putin wants to keep as much of Ukraine as they can get their hands on. And I think they want even more.
I’m responding to SteveF who wants a solution that stops killing. What I’m saying if Russia left, the killing would stop. I don’t think Russia is going to do that.
lucia wrote: ” if Russia left, the killing would stop. I don’t think Russia is going to do that.”
Absolutely true.
It is also true that if Ukraine just let Russia annex their country, the killing would stop. I don’t think Ukraine is going to do that.
And if Ukraine and Russia were to agree on a deal with a decent chance of producing a lasting peace, the killing would stop. That is something that actually might happen.
MikeM
Perhaps not. But I see no reason a treaty should limit the size of their army. They should be free to decide what size army they maintain. They didn’t invade Russia.
But it would not be long before they took on a weak Ukraine. The treaty should not put any limitations on Ukraine being strong.
MikeM
But some seem to be bound and determined for Ukraine to accept almost anything including things that would result in merely giving Russian time to regroup, while Ukraine is prevented from having a military the size of its choice.
It’s always interesting when a discussion arrives at this point. In my view, it’s useful to remember that there actually are worse things than death. Living as slaves for instance, and knowing that one’s children will live as slaves, might be worse than ongoing warfare, killing, death, and destruction. Letting another hostile power annex one’s nation might be another.
Lucia,
Yes, if Russia withdrew all its forces, the killing would stop. If Ukraine surrendered, the killing would stop. If Russian and Ukraine agreed to a negotiated ceasefire the killing would stop.
But realistically, Russia is not going to withdraw, and Ukraine is not going to surrender. Russia and Ukraine could negotiate a ceasefire, when, as Tom Scharf says, both see continued fighting as a worse alternative.
I believe two of these are not going to happen. The third could happen.
Mark Bofill,
“Letting another hostile power annex one’s nation might be another.”
The situation Ukraine is far more complicated than that…… historically, culturally, linguistically. Yes, the Chinese Communist Party trying to take over the USA by force would be worth a war.
If the Ukrainians think it worthwhile to not negotiate with the Russians and keep fighting, that is OK with me. But I think that will be a mistake.
While there is no way to make an accurate assessment, it is believed that substantial numbers of ethnic Ukrainians — possibly around one million — still live in eastern Ukraine behind Russian lines. Ukrainians also remain in the parts of the Donbas region that Russia is attempting to seize.
History has shown that Russia has not been a good steward of ethnic Ukrainians under its control. So even if a cease-fire stops the killing between soldiers, the Ukrainians left under Russian authority are unlikely to see their suffering end.
SteveF
Sure. When they both see continued fighting as a worse alternative to whatever peace treaty is offered. For Ukraine, it is very difficult for a peace treaty to be a better alternative than continued fighting unless the peace treaty were to allow them to have an unlimited standing armey– that is, whatever size they chose. And unless NATO guaranteed that they would step in if Russia violates and over runs them.
In principle, it ought to be easy to find a peace that is a better alternative for Russia. After all: They don’t technically need to keep parts of Ukraine. Ukraine didn’t invade them. Ukraine isn’t remotely likely to invade them. The only difficulty is that Putin wants to take over Ukraine.
You may consider this “mind reading”– but he did, after all, invade Ukraine. And he’s got a history of doing his best to create puppet states. It’s what his past and current actions indicate he wants.
SteveF
The US and Canada are similar culturally and linguistically. And parts of the history are fairly similar. If Canada tried to take us over, I think that would be worth a war. I think they would feel the same about us.
Lucia,
The Canadians are not going to take over anything: small population, minuscule military, big regional cultural differences that make consensus difficult. And cold to boot! 😉
USA just might decide to take over Canada, or more likely threaten military action to limit Canada’s foreign policy options, if the Canadians planed on entering a mutual defense treaty with China, stationing Chinese troops in Canada.
Steve,
It’s easy to be dispassionate about the prospect of somebody else giving up their nation’s sovereignty. It doesn’t sting so much when this happening to somebody else I’m sure. Personally, I think the opinions of people with skin in the game are more compelling.
SteveF
Of course they aren’t. But you suggested a hypothetical that would be worth going to war over. So I suggested another.
Canadians are historically, linquistically and culturally “similar” to us. But if they did invade, we’d think it worth going to war. And if we invaded them, they would think so.
And in context of your previous: the fact that Ukrainians can nearly all understand Russian (though Russians don’t understand Ukrainian) and that there is some shared history is not a reason why Ukrainians should or would feel it’s ok for Russia to take them over.
And I bet Putin wouldn’t think Ukrainains shared history would make it ok for Ukraine to rule Russia. I guess my guess about Putin’s thoughts is pure speculation or an attempt at mind reading. But I still think that.
If I remember my history, we fought three major wars against English speaking opponents with whom we had a great deal of common history and culture. True, the last one was over a century and a half ago. But I think it negates the idea that it would be unreasonable to fight to maintain independence from a country that is “historically, culturally, linguistically” similar.
lucia,
The things that should be allowed to screw up a deal ought to be things that really matter. Yes, limiting the Ukrainian army to 600K seems wrong in principle. But it would not be a big deal in practice, at least as long as some amount of time was allowed to reduce it from the current level (800K?), perhaps coupled to a partial pullback of Russian troops. A limit of 100K would e very different, since that would leave Ukraine very vulnerable.
OTOH, turning the “fortress belt” over to Russia would be a big deal, even if it is “only” 1% of Ukraine. That would immediately leave Ukraine dramatically weaker.
Mark is correct that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide what is worth fighting and dying over.
MikeM
I don’t know who is supposedly doing the “allowing”.
Big deal to whom?
I would think Ukraine finding a provision unacceptable would be sufficient to make the deal a no-go. If I were Ukraine, I would find that provision unacceptable. That would make that provision “screw up” the deal.
Evidently, Ukraine’s Khrystyna Hayovyshyn, Andriy Hnato say Ukraine would never accept any limit on the size of its army. And public polls of residents of Kyiv say they wouldn’t accept limiting the size of the Ukrainian army.
If not limiting the size of the Army is important to Ukraine– and it appears likely it, and if they think it’s a big deal to them– and it seems likely it is– then a provision insisting on the limitation will screw up a peace deal.
If you want peace, the provision should be dropped. And after all… what is the motive of the provision. Ukraine didn’t invade Russia. I know why Russia might want that provision. They hope to invade again. They’d like the Ukrainian army smaller than it currently is.
I agree.
We’re getting closer to the nightmare scenario where the robots take over warfare. Ukraine is claiming to be using increasing numbers of drones with AI for terminal guidance.
This allows Ukraine to launch their drones, guide them to the general target area, and then turn over final targeting to onboard control systems that are reportedly immune to electronic countermeasures. The drones use their AI to find and destroy targets.
“You, drone, go over there and find something to blow up.”
The AI is being used in both aerial and naval drones. They claim it is affordable, adding only a couple hundred dollars to the cost.
I have no proof of any of these claims, but they come from reliable sources.
Post by one of my respected OSINT sites regarding this development:
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1996838637187797117?s=20
Trump’s peace deal is just a grab for resources–Ukrainian by fiat, Russian by agreement.
There is no floor below which Trump cannot sink.
Thomas Fuller,
I keep trying to figure how Trump benefits personally for shepherding a Gaza ceasefire. I am sure there is something nefarious involved….. there just has to be, it is Trump after all.
And the biggest land and natural resources grab of all: the USA took nearly all the North American aboriginal lands…. although in fairness, much the same happened in… Australia. And Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and many other places. I suggest you campaign for all of that history to be reversed, and then keep going….. insist on ‘absolute justice’ for people who the Aztecs and Myans over-ran, and who the Caribs ate for dinner. My goodness, consider the Roman conquests! And don’t forget we modern humans took the Neanderthal lands, and drove them to extinction (in addition to stealing 3% of their genes!).
The list of horrible injustices is, fortunately, unlimited, so your raging, righteous indignation can continue until the day you die. Should you get to heaven, you can lobby God to punish all the guilty.
I set lower expectations: try to stop people killing other people.
Mark Bofill,
“It’s easy to be dispassionate about the prospect of somebody else giving up their nation’s sovereignty.”
And easy to be righteous instead of realistic. Sure, Canada is a sovereign nation and should be allowed to invite Chinese troops into Canada, and place intermediate range nuclear weapons along the US-Canada border, right?
The Ukrainians can fight the Russians as long as they want. More power to ’em. I hope they recognize that discretion is sometimes the better part of valor. I fear they won’t for a long time.
Lucia –
I’ve got another question for the Blackboard Trump sycophants. Will they be apologists for Trump pardoning a convicted narcotics trafficker? Do they ever draw a line?
Joshua, It must be frustrating for you that people here don’t pick the topics you want to discuss. Perhaps consider using google to a thread on Reddit where people are already discussing Presidents’ choices of whom to pardon. Or start one of your own there. — Lucia
I’ve made no such claim. Neither do I assert Ukraine ought to do this or that.
Mark Bofill,
The shoe has to sometimes be tried on the other foot.
Ukraine, past USA administrations, and many European governments, have all insisted that Ukraine is a sovereign nation and MUST be allowed to enter NATO….. which means NATO troops and weapons can be stationed in Ukraine.
So do you think it is unreasonable for Russia to say Ukraine must not join NATO ? If so, why? Real questions.
Look, I’ll be happy to share my opinion about that, but I’d like to be clear that those questions IMO don’t relate to my earlier point. If you think they do, I don’t think you understood what I was saying.
NATO screwed Ukraine by flirting with them openly for decades IIRC (and it’s certainly possible I do not recall correctly BTW) but insisting that they implement ‘democratic reforms’ prior to admittance. Is it ‘unreasonable’ for Russia to demand that they don’t join NATO?
I don’t buy that NATO is much of a threat to Russia. I never have really. Putin professes to hold a different view. Well, maybe he knows more about it than I do; I’d expect he does. Personally, I think that he is a liar and that the ‘NATO threat’ is a pretext. I think he’s an expansionist and the ‘NATO threat’ is just an excuse.
NONE OF THIS ought to be construed as anything other than my uninformed speculation, offered specifically because you asked me for it.
If Russia thinks NATO membership is a real possibility and threat, one wonders, why doesn’t NATO admit Ukraine today? Obviously, NATO doesn’t want Russia to take Ukraine. If NATO doesn’t have the balls today, why should anyone think they’d have the balls tomorrow? My answer – nobody really does think that. Ukraine will never join NATO and everyone knows it. It’s just useful propaganda.
Mark Bofill,
Thanks for that explanation.
I agree that people in NATO member countries almost all believe NATO is no threat to Russia. But I think that is almost as meaningless as noting the Pope believes in God. The relevant question is: what do Russian leaders (and Russians in general) think? I suspect they are not nearly so convinced that NATO poses no threat to Russia.
Here is the response from a quick AI request about Russian views of NATO:
SteveF
If we had rolled tanks into them, tried to take Ottawa and were bombing their people, then yes. Canada should not only have the right to arm itself and put weapons along the US-Canada border, they should put them there. And if we did that, it’s our military that should be capped, not Canada’s.
And btw: their right to put weapons there exists right now. And if we were even merely insisting on their remaining defenseless or that we could dictate their foreign policy, they might be wise to do so.
We could then be nervous. But having a large standing army — even stationed at a border is not an act of war.
But certainly, if we invaded, they should exercise that right.
I think it would be reasonable for them to say they would prefer it not to happen. But I thin it’s entirely unreasonable for them to demand it — as if their wish is Ukraine or NATO’s command. I think it because Ukraine is a sovereign nation and Russia doesn’t have any right to dictate who it allies with. And that’s true no matter how “nervous” Russia claims it is. And it’s true even if Russian and Ukrainian are similar languages. And it’s true even if Russia once dominated Ukraine and controlled it.
I don’t understand why anyone would think it’s not unreasonable to indulge Russia’s desire to control Ukraine and deprive them of sovereignity. And asking those of us who hold my opinion to say why with think something that is rather obvious before providing an explanation isn’t the same as providing a reason why Russia should have some right to demand a sovereign nation do Russia’s bidding.
SteveF
Relevant to what? Whether they are nervous? Or hold different opinions from us? Even if true– and let me point out you are mind reading every bit as much as you accuse others of doing so– Russia’s belief that NATO poses a threat is not a valid justification to allow them (a) dictate the foreign policy of another nation, (b) invade Ukraine, (d) insist Ukraine’s military might be constrained.
My mind reading differs from yours. I agree with Mark. Fear of NATO is a pretext for Russia in this particular invasion of Ukraine.
lucia wrote: “If not limiting the size of the Army is important to Ukraine … and if they think it’s a big deal to them … then a provision insisting on the limitation will screw up a peace deal.”
I agree. I excised the its about whether those things are likely, because I am doubtful as to how important they are. In the past, Russia has demanded extreme limitations on the Ukrainian armed forces. I would expect (and hope) that Ukraine would reject such a limitation. But I think it would be foolish to reject peace because of a limitation that does not matter in practice.
Extreme example: Would it make sense to reject a deal because it contains a provision that the Ukrainian army have no more than ten million men? Of course not. OTOH a limitation of ten thousand men would obviously be unacceptable.
Of course, it is up to the Ukrainians to decide if a specific limitation is acceptable.
This discussion about what may or may not be appropriate in a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is a lot like playing chess while blindfolded.
The most critical information that leaders of both countries need to make decisions about peace negotiations is completely unknown to the outside world. For example, the true state of the Russian economy is a mystery. It may be close to collapse, as some claim, or it may be capable of continuing indefinitely—we simply don’t know.
Ukraine’s manpower shortage is another frequently cited statistic, yet we have no clear sense of how severe that problem actually is.
It’s often said that the Russian population broadly supports the war, but that view is far too simplistic. Ethnic minority populations have suffered disproportionately in terms of casualties. This is especially true in Siberia and the Far Eastern regions. These areas, populated heavily by non-ethnic-Russian groups, have shown signs of discontent with the war, but in Russia there is no reliable way to gauge how deep or widespread that discontent truly is.
There are many more factors about which we have little or no information, and these unknowns will shape what each country’s leadership is willing to concede, because they represent the internal pressures pushing toward an end to the war.
In many ways, we are discussing all of this through rose-colored goggles, filtered through Western moral assumptions. But those assumptions have little bearing on what the leaders of Russia and Ukraine are actually considering.
MikeM
Where you and I differ is I think the issue of limiting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself matters in practice. Comparing Ukraine’s army to the size of European armies is not a relevant metric. It’s comparing it to the size of Russia’s that matters. Russia is the one who invaded them and Russia is the one involved in the peace discussions.
I think anyone who proposes limiting Ukraine’s military is proposing a “peace” treaty Ukraine should not accept and which will not last in the long run. And by long– I mean it would be likely be violated by Russia within 10 years.
The number actually matters. Limiting it to 10 times the size of the Russian army would probably be ok for Ukraine. Heck, state it as a multiple. Ukraine can keep an army standing army/navy/airforce that is 10 times the size of Russia’s. And they can, in addition, maintain a reserve of similar size. Or better: Russia must pair it’s military to 1/10th the size of Ukraine’s.
I suspect they might be willing to accept Russian’s army being limited to 10th the size of Ukraine’s. Heck, even 1/3rd might work– provided there is monitoring to put teeth in it. And this might be reasonable for others– and might result in a fairly enduring peace.
But limiting Ukraine’s army can’t and won’t maintain peace.
It would be foolish for Russian leaders to assume that NATO is not a threat just as it would be foolish for them to assume that China is not a threat. A large, powerful foe on your borders should always be deemed a threat for planning purposes.
In addition to the generic reason for Russia to assume that NATO is a threat, there are also reasons specific to NATO, NATO exists to confront Russia. NATO is not a purely defensive alliance; it has gone on the offensive in the Balkans and Afghanistan. NATO has expanded aggressively to the east. NATO forces in Ukraine would be in an excellent position to attack Russia.
The leaders of any country in such a position would have to assume a threat and take measures to counter it. Those measures would include both military preparedness and diplomatic maneuvering.
Russia has to have an army that is larger than Ukraine’s. Because China.
MikeM
Preparedness and diplomatic maneuvering are acceptable things to do. That’s precisely why I think Ukraine’s army should not be limited. They have valid reasons to assume Russia is a threat.
Rolling tanks into a neighbor who has not attacked you as Russia has actually did in 2022? That’s a bridge to far.
MikeM
At least we both agree that the reasonable size of a standing army depends on the threats to a country’s existence. Ukraine has to have a larger army than everyone in Europe. Because Russia.
Lucia,
” I think it because Ukraine is a sovereign nation and Russia doesn’t have any right to dictate who it allies with.”
We completely disagree on this issue. Countries ALWAYS evaluate perceived threats and often take preemptive action to eliminate those perceived threats. If Canada announced they were planning to enter a military alliance with China, the USA would not allow it to happen.
There will be an eventual cease-fire in Ukraine. The conditions will be judged by many people as unfair. An expectation of the outcome of a negotiation being fair, according to an individual’s sense of what constitutes “fair”, is unrealistic.
SteveF
Oh? And I don’t know what you think we’d do when you say “not allow it”.
Arming our border? That would be legitimate. Increasing tghe size of our military? No longer being allies? Trying to get them out of NATO? Taking them off “most favored nation” status or having sanctions? Banning trade (if we thought that was beneficial.) All would be legitimate acceptable actions for the US.
We’d be wrong to roll tanks into Canada for because they allied with China. Rolling tanks is what Russia did.
If you think rolling tanks into Canada would have been legitimate say it. Perhaps you do– but I’m not going to put words in your mouth. But “not allow”? That doesn’t tell us what actions you accept or which you would not.
The Russian empire expanded from the 1300s onward through conquest and the incorporation of many non-Russian peoples. Imperial expansion continued into the 19th century, and Moscow retained dominance over these territories through the Soviet period.
Ukraine began to become subjugated by Russian peoples about 350 years ago and was completely dominated by the Soviet Union by around 1920. The Russian authorities were often cruel and brutal overlords of the Ukrainian people.
Ukrainian society experienced periods of significant repression under both the Russian Empire and the Soviet regime, including mass murder, cultural suppression, and political violence.
While we in the West might think Ukraine should be able to determine the size of its own military, that is a strange and anathema concept to ethnic Russians.
Russell,
Lots of neighboring countries have history of one subjugating the other.
In 1171, Henri II of England invaded Ireland and it became a “Lordship” under the crown. Full subjugation happened under the Tudors in the 1500-1600 era. In the 1800s Ireland was fully absorbed into the United Kindom (and not necesserally in a good way.
Sure. Russians can have whatever “concept” they might harbor. But if they have such a concept it’s all the more reason why Ukraine should keep a large military to defend itself. It’s not a reason to say we should give Russia whatever their concept says they have a right too.
If England decreed that it should be able to determine the size of Irelands army or whether they chose to join , stay out of or leave NATO, or any I don’t think the Irish would be all for that. I, for one, would back Ireland’s right to decide things for themselves.
No matter what England thinks vis a vis Ireland, Ireland is sovereign. No matter what concept ethnic Russians find anathema, Ukraine is sovereign. Those whose “concept” is that Ukraine “should be” a vassal of Russian should suck it up and learn otherwise.
England have pretty good relations with Ireland. The fact that England isn’t hankering to take it back or threatening Ireland’s sovereignty likely contributes to that. Ukraine has poor relations with Russia because Russia has a bad attitude.
Generalizing– and not to Russell:
Similarly with all the “what happens if Canada does X? examples…”
Well, among the reasons Canada does not ally with the Chinese to defend it against the US is Canada is pretty sure the US has no designs to take over Canada. That’s also why Canada does not have missiles aimed towards us.
So discussing how Russia might “feel” about Ukraine joining NATO without also noting that Russiahas been taking over bits of Ukraine- e.g. Crimea and trying to discuss how we, the US would “feel” about Canada allying with China is a pretty big tangent. Canada is highly unlikely to do any such thing unless they “feel” we are likely to invade and take them over. If our actions indicated we were likely to do that Canada would be very justified in entering an alliance that protected them. And how we “felt” about that wouldn’t be a just reason for saying they can’t. And it wouldn’t be a just reason for us launching a full scale invasion to do precisely what we seemed to want to do before the alliance was considered.
Canada has a right to ally with whomever they wish. We do not have a right to roll tanks across the border and take Ottowa merely because they enter an alliance. But also: one reason Ottowa and Canadian’s are not particularly inclined to make an alliance with China is we don’t want to take them over.
And Canada’s impression we aren’t inclined to actually take them over is our actions are consistent with not wanting to take them over. We haven’t recently swooped in and taken bits of Ontario justifying it by claiming that that weird shaped bit that include the cities of Hamilton, London, Toronto and London is really just the “Buffalo – Detroit Area” and we need to have better control of Lake Earie… for… reasons. And anyway, that would simply fy the whole border shape, since that’s a weird shape. Oh… and we aren’t promulgating of English speaking people live in Canada as a “reason” why we should get to take them over.
lucia wrote: “If you think rolling tanks into Canada would have been legitimate say it.”
I think rolling tanks into Canada would be legitimate for the purpose of preventing China from stationing troops, missiles, etc. in Canada. Of course, that is unlikely to happen.
We instituted a naval blockade of Cuba (an act of war) in order to prevent the Soviets from stationing missiles there. That is just one of many times we violated a nation’s sovereignty to advance our defense interests.
The Japanese didn’t “want” to allow the US to take over their country, they were compelled to allow it by force and the credible threat of utter destruction. Ukraine is being leveled.
The Ukrainians either have to accept some very distasteful concessions or they may eventually be compelled to accept even worse. This is not a game of what is fair, it is a game of survival.
The failure of Ukraine to both distance themselves from Russia and be able to defend themselves has left them exposed to the whims of global politics. This is their fault and their fault only.
All the arguing over what Ukraine should accept is besides the point, the rest of the sentence appears to be “or else the US / EU / NATO will step up and apply more force against Russia”. That is the convincing argument that needs to be made and I doubt Putin believes that is going to happen.
I’m not an isolationist but I don’t think the US should run around solving every global conflict like it is the Justice League.
Russia has been bled down, why should we continue to defend Ukraine when the EU barely does so with the Russia menace sitting on their border?
Gemini tells me both of you have a point.
MikeM
It may be an act of war, but it does short of actually invading.
And have I said we are always right in our foreign actions? No. And do I think that people should advocate that countries whose sovereignity should be disallowed to defend themselves? No. And that final one is the relevant point WRT to Ukraine.
Even if you think it’s ok for us to roll into Canada, it is ridiculous to suggest Canada would not have a right to fight back or maintain defenses. Canada would have every right to reject proposals they disarm r reduce their ability to repell us.
If we– or anyone– suggest that Canada has to disarm and they say no, might this prevent negotiation of a peace treaty? Sure. But that’s not Canada’s fault. The fault would be on those who want to disarm Canada!.
Likewise: No one should be pushing to disarm Ukraine in the current situation. And if peace talks stall because people propose and push for Ukraine to disarm– partially or fully– the fault for the impasse is the people insisting Ukraine disarm in any way.
It’s a ridiculous proposal. And I can’t take any “peace” proposal as being a serious attempt to negotiate peace if it suggests limits on Ukraine’s military. It is an “appease Russia” treaty– that gives Russia time to regroup and invade again. Russia will resume killing when they can. Pointing out they can’t do it immediately is hardly a strong point in favor of the treaty. Because the advantage to Russia is they get to pause and rearm while their target is tied and prevented from full defense when Russia resumes.
The only other remark I will make about the supposed threat of NATO is this: regardless of the rest of the calculus, Russia is still a world class nuclear ballistic missile superpower. Nobody, and I mean nobody, actually threatens such a nation. NATO doesn’t change that, the United States military doesn’t change that. Russia cannot be destroyed or conquered without triggering mutually assured destruction. It isn’t going to happen, and IMO all world leaders probably know this.
Lucia, your post stated:
“No matter what concept ethnic Russians find anathema, Ukraine is sovereign. Those whose ‘concept’ is that Ukraine ‘should be’ a vassal of Russia should suck it up and learn otherwise.”
To Europeans and Americans, that is a self-evident statement. Of course Russia has no right to demand anything from a neighboring state. You illustrate my point.
Russians do not look at this through European and American rose-colored goggles, and no amount of pontification by us will change their minds.
Ethnic Russians have a thousand-year history of subjugating their neighboring peoples. That is their norm. Our norms mean nothing to them.
They believe it is the right of the Russian Empire to dictate what it wants from its neighbors, and that the West can go pound salt.
Our discussion here has changed my mind.
I had previously believed it was time to settle this through a treaty, but I no longer think that.
Currently, Russia holds a strip of land in eastern Ukraine that varies between roughly 10 and 100 miles in width. This gives Russia nothing from a defensive standpoint. The entire war would be a waste if this is all Russia gains.
Unless there is some internal Russian problem — such as a failing economy or ethnic unrest — Putin has no reason to change his current approach. To Putin and to many Russians, they believe they are winning, and they see no reason to stop now. Unless they take all of Ukraine, they will have gained nothing in terms of Russia’s long-term defense.
The Japanese would have been better off if they surrendered earlier, hindsight is easy. After the US Satans took over their country the US eventually left, they recovered, and they are currently a country of Japanese run by Japanese and have mostly thrived. Most Japanese likely thought this impossible at the time.
Being absorbed into Russia may be different, or may not be. The comparison to slavery and such are overwrought. Barring genocide or population displacement Ukraine will still be full of Ukrainians. One corrupt government will be replaced by a more corrupt government but most peoples lives will plod along like before, perhaps with a lower long term financial outlook.
Is having your country leveled and a large number of your young men killed worth it? If they think so, then have at it, I support their loyalty.
The WSJ had an interesting Opinoin column
A Bad Ukraine Deal Could Spur Nuclear Proliferation
Bad in the title is, by the way, bad from the POV of Ukraine.
The premise is Ukraine having to concede territory to Russia will motivate non-Nuclear nations to become nuclear. Otherwise, they feel at risk of losing their own territory at some point.
Lots of people all talk about how one should appease Russia to avoid them using their weapons — which I agree with Mark Bofill would be unlikely. But they don’t talk about how appeasing Russia will cause third parties to arm up.
People here brought up Poland and whether Russia would invade Poland if they got Ukraine. Maybe Russia would, maybe not. But that leaves Poland with an existential question mark. In that context
If I were Poland, I’d be leaning toward nuclear weapons. And the fact that Russia “feels” they deserve Ukraine or “felt” some sort of way that made them roll tanks into Ukraine would make me lean that way even more.
If I were Poland, arguments justifying Russian rolling into Ukraine would not make me less likely to figure out a path to having nukes, it would make me more likely to do so.
The way that Canada prevent the US from invading is they have become our close friends through both common interests and their compelling national interest.
This is a story as old as time and crosses cultural boundaries.
Trump of course, being the pretend barbarian he is, wants them to give offerings in exchange for protection, ha ha.
The US chooses to not take over Canada for a lot of reasons. As long as they are friendly and effectively operate as a “51st state” in most capacities then it’s all downside to enter a conflict.
Lucia, your post:
“If I were Poland, I’d be leaning toward nuclear weapons. And the fact that Russia feels they deserve Ukraine, or felt some sort of way that made them roll tanks into Ukraine, would make me lean that way even more.”
I agree. It is impossible to overstate the danger of being a neighbor of Russia, particularly when there is some strategic advantage to Russia in occupying your territory.
Tom
They had literally attacked us. We had a full blown war– not started by us. And Japan didn’t just give us stuff to “appease”. They literally lost.
Obviously, if Ukraine literally loses, they will end up giving in. But people are asking them to do that when they have not literally lost. And why?
Sure. Maybe Russia would rebuild and Ukraine and then just leave. But given history, why would one think so? Our example in Japan isn’t to the point. The US didn’t want to absorb Japan. We hadn’t attacked them with the intention of absorbing them. Prior to Pearl Harbor, we weren’t announcing they had no right to exist.
Russia’s actions in recent history strongly suggest they want to absorb Ukraine. The notion that they would just rebuild and leave is utterly implausible.
I think you are missing “leveled by a country that actively wants to take over yours” and also “worth what”.
Fir now, many Ukrainians clearly think it’s worth defending against Russia absorbing them. The people arguing it’s not worth it are not Ukrainians. I mean, if Ukraine said it’s not worth it, ok. But it’s not Ukrainians saying they think they are better off as a vassal to Russia.
Russel,
Sadly, it may be too late to prevent nuclear escalation by currently non-nuclear countries. The mistake was made when the US and/or NATO did not come to the defense of Ukraine. But demands that Ukraine concede territory are going to make the push toward nuclear escalation much more probable.
And how the Russians “feel” about that isn’t going to make non-nuclear countries think, “Oh. Poor Russia has big feelings. And they’ve made it clear: Ukraine is historically Russia. And Russia only did it because they were “afraid” of some hypothetical. That means we are safe!! So, let’s not do it!”
Lucia,
You kind of left out Northern Ireland in that analogy.
There are many parallels between Russian / Crimea / Ukraine and UK / Northern Ireland / Ireland (aka The Troubles, IRA, etc.). Eventually solved by the Good Friday Agreement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
It gets pretty messy but at least it wasn’t an all out war.
Czechoslovakia used to be a country. European history is full of this type of redrawing of borders.
In the Japanese view they attacked us because we blockaded their country with an oil embargo which was an existential threat to them (and their Asia expansion…). There is almost always a “but for” in most conflicts, some arguments weaker than others.
Tom,
Sure.
Obviously, there are differences. In recent history, Ireland the historical process went from from total domination, to UK reducing control and having on part of the the island of Ireland be a country and another have self government.
In contrast, in recent history, Ukraine has been recognized as a sovereign nation and Russia is trying to recapture it.
In what sense do you think the differences changes things about the how Ukraine should feel about giving up territory? I correct Irish-UK analogy would be the hypothetical where the UK suddenly over-ran Ireland, trying to retake the entire country on the grounds that it once had dominion over the whole thing. Once UK showed this desire for dominion and actually acted on it, I think the Irish would be justified in wanting to protect their sovereign territory — territory against the UK. I don’t think it would be fair to insist that the Irish should just concede more and more territory.
Tom
Sure. Japan had invaded Manchuria in 1931 and China in 1937. They were expansionist and couldn’t continue to do that without oil. They might not even be able to hold what they’d secured.
This alarmed people– especially us– and we responded with economic sanctions etc. Things escalated. This was partly due to the fact that Japan very much wanted to expand and absorb other countries and they needed oil and steel to do so.
They were presented with choices– give up their expansionist dream or attack. That is escallation on our part because we knew they wanted to continue to expand– and were willing to do so militarally. So they attacked.
Regardless we didn’t try to take over or absorb Japan. We didn’t want to take over or absorb Japan. Even if the Japanese felt the “had to” attack us, it’s not because they thought we wanted to absorb them into the US.
We are still behaving differently from Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine. Or basic attitude is different. Putin-Russian rhetoric is that Ukraine justly “belongs” to Russian.
The motive of a country that invades does matter to likely outcomes. A country that has no intention of absorbing you is much more likely to leave after invasion than one whose motive for attacking is to absorb you.
We did take over Japan and their people believed they would be subjugated as they had subjugated others, Rape of Nanking style. Civilians were jumping off cliffs in Okinawa before capture because of this propaganda. In a sense they were subjugated to our form of government even though they got to keep their emperor. We wrote their constitution IIRC and the US continues to have a heavy military presence in Japan, but they aren’t a vassal state (now).
My point is that maximalist rhetoric is common on both sides. Russia would probably leave Ukraine to govern itself as a vassal state and it will be somewhat independent in everything … except those minor things that the Russian menace cares about such as the economy, military, trade, relations with the EU, taxation, natural resources, who is allowed to run for office …
I’ve been trying to figure out why Putin is demanding the rest of the Donbas area in these negotiations. It has little strategic or economic value.
According to ChatGPT:
“The strategic and economic gains are modest compared to the enormous cost of the war.
For Putin, the political and ideological value is far more important than the practical value.”
I am struggling to find any reason—based on what we know about the current negotiations—that would push Russia to agree to a settlement. As I see it, they gain nothing.
Unless there are dire circumstances within Russia that we don’t know about, this war will continue unless significant concessions regarding Russian security are granted.
The only real gain Russia would get from settling is stopping the spilling of Russian blood, which appears to matter very little to Putin.
“The failure of Ukraine to both distance themselves from Russia and be able to defend themselves has left them exposed to the whims of global politics. This is their fault and their fault only.”
WTF? 1. Ukraine has successfully defended itself for almost four years and shows no signs of imminent defeat. At all. Do they have problems? Like all countries at war, yes. But it has taken Russia a year and a half to traverse the 30 miles between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk. And they still haven’t taken Pokrovsk.
2. Global politics (mostly in the name of Trump) have tried to impose itself on Ukraine.
3. “This is their fault and their fault only.” What are you smoking? A sovereign, peaceful neighbor is invaded and… it is their fault? It’s your fault you have a nice car. Give me the keys.
The war of attrition continues.
. “Right” or “Wrong” doesn’t apply in power politics between nations.
“The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”
.
The male population of Ukraine is disappearing.
“Band of brothers: how the war crushed a cohort of young Ukrainians”
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/band-brothers-how-war-crushed-cohort-young-ukrainians-2025-12-01/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
.
“Reuters followed the fortunes of a group of raw recruits who enlisted as part of Ukraine’s drive to refresh its depleted ranks. None of the 11 are still fighting.”
.
“None of the 11 are still fighting. Four have been wounded, three are missing in action, two are absent without leave (AWOL), one fell sick and another recruit has killed himself, according to interviews with soldiers, their relatives and government records.”
To me (looking at it with zero inside information), the war of attrition is boiling down to one question:
Will Ukraine run out of warm bodies before Russia runs out of money?
(I know this oversimplifies it)
Tom,
Minor. 🙂
Tom Scharf wrote: “The failure of Ukraine to both distance themselves from Russia and be able to defend themselves has left them exposed to the whims of global politics. This is their fault and their fault only.
Huh? The war is Ukraine’s fault? Because they are weaker than Russia? Because they have been too friendly to Russia? Because they have no managed to move their country so that it is farther from Russia? I can not find a way to read that that makes sense.
Of course, the war is Russia’ fault. That can be true even if Ukraine, Europe, and the USA did things or failed to do things that affected how likely war would be. The biggest blunders were arguably not Ukraine’s.
As George Kennan predicted last century, Ukraine if paying the price for the reckless eastward expansion of NATO. That was in no way Ukraine’s fault.
I suppose Ukraine could be blamed for giving up their nukes, but they did so under international pressure and in exchange for security guarantees from the USA, Russia, and others.I guess those guarantees were written on water. That Ukraine fell for the gambit is not entirely their fault.
Not to mention the irresponsibility of Biden and Europe in repeatedly inviting Ukraine to kick the NATO football. Maybe Ukraine should have known better, but that was not entirely their fault.
And there was the fecklessness of Biden during the year before the war in doing nothing meaningful to dissuade Russia and a whole lot to make Putin believe that we would not do much to stop him.
Ukraine has agency.
Yes. it is absolutely Ukraine’s fault, more specifically their * responsibility and obligation *, to defend themselves, pacify their perceived enemies to the extent possible, and create alliances to deter their enemies. Whose responsibility do you think that is? France?
As per the previous discussion, Ukraine was inviting a historical enemy of Russia into their country and making alliances. It’s like Canada making a military alliance with China.
They made calculated risks to woo the EU and NATO with the Big Bear growling at them over their shoulder and the risk didn’t pay off.
Maybe they had an unsolvable problem and this was the best hand they had. That doesn’t make patrolling the Russia neighborhood the US’s problem to solve. We have official lines and it is called NATO.
Your failure to plan does not constitute my emergency. Ukraine was dealt some bad global cards for their bad neighbors and we have helped them out, but I’m not convinced this is somehow a moral / legal obligation for the US to solve. Allies.Of.Convenience. Nothing more. All the BS about “shame” is nothing more than baseless appeal to emotion.
If they were in NATO or had a historical alliance with the US then I would support meaningful intervention. Ukraine needs to read the room better.
Lucia,
“If you think rolling tanks into Canada would have been legitimate say it. Perhaps you do– but I’m not going to put words in your mouth.”
I think it would never come to that, but yes, if needed, the USA would “subjugate” Canada militarily to avoid Canada from entering a mutual defense treaty with China. (Same with Mexico, BTW.) It actually surprises me that anybody would imagine otherwise.
I do think otherwise. If they had not invaded us, I think we could justify economic incentives, blockades and a number of things short of invasion.
Of course, Canada isn’t going to enter a treaty because we don’t have tanks on our border with them. Nor are we saying they are an illegitimate state. Nor are we spewing rhetoric about how they should really already be subordinate to us– and so on.
If we were, they would then be justified in entering a protective treaty with someone against thus. And with your view, we’d then move onto invasion and war. I would consider this our fault for what we did to move them to protect themselves, and then our fault for invading.
Mike M,
“The biggest blunders were arguably not Ukraine’s.”
Fore sure. The USA policy WRT NATO expansion caused more problems than anything Ukraine did. Had successive administrations said something like “We recognize that Ukraine joining NATO would lead to serious problems” and not promised Ukraine membership, it is much less likely Russia would have invaded. Add to that the USA instigating revolution against an elected Ukrainian government, and you have the perfect storm of foolish policy choices.
Tom,
You’re bringing up a different but parallel topic which is: What should the US, NATO or the EU do and why? And what do we owe them?
I think those are different questions from what Ukraine should be encouraged or pressed strongly to accept and also what will happen if Ukraine buckles under pressure to appease Russia. I haven’t been discussing what we should do.
The two things are related because what happens if Ukraine accepts a treaty to weaken its army or conceded land will affect what Russia does in the next 10 years. And that will affect NATO countries, the EU and the US. It will affect us whether we “owe” Ukraine something or not.
I think if Ukraine conceded land or weakens it’s military, things are going to be bad for NATO and the EU in 10 years. Bad and expensive. I could be wrong– but that has nothing to do with what we “owe” Ukraine.
I think the WSJ article that suggested nonNuclear countries will move to nuke up may be prescient. Some are evidently discussing doing that– and somewhat openly.
Lucia,
Now I think you are putting words in my mouth. I did not say that the USA was threating invasion of Canada. I said that if Canada decided to enter a miliary alliance with China, the USA would not permit it. (Same with Mexico.)
These countries could be taken over by people like Maduro (And Mexico isn’t that far away!) and think it best to align with their ideological kin. The USA would simply never allow it. Of course, it is a hypothetical that is very (very!) unlikely….. at least in part because Canada and Mexico understand the realities of sharing long borders with a larger and much more powerful country that is also easily their largest trading partner.
SteveF,
I think the opposite of you. If the US and NATO had conferred more quietly and admitted Ukraine quickly, things would be much better. The mistake was to NOT let them in.
I think the only sense in which NATO discussions “caused” the invasion was to give Russia a pretext. And they then thought there was little time left before they would lose the opportunity to invade unopposed. But they’ve wanted Ukraine for a long time. At least since 2014.
Lucia,
“I think if Ukraine conceded land or weakens it’s military, things are going to be bad for NATO and the EU in 10 years.”
Ukraine will concede land, at a minimum the Donbas and Crimea. The Russian will also want a land corridor to Crimea.
I don’t know what limitations there might be on the Ukrainian military, but I suspect not many. As Mike M rightly pointed out, Ukraine would never need a huge standing army; they would need a sizable standing army, modern equipment, and lots of trained reserves.
I very much doubt things will be “bad” (maybe “worse” is a better description) for NATO and the EU in 10 years, because Ukraine ceded some territory to Russia (whether that is de jure or de facto). Russia won’t be invading anyone soon.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), led by four-star General Jack Keane, released several detailed reports today about the ongoing negotiations between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine.
Some notable quotes:
• “ISW continues to assess that Putin, in part, launched his full-scale invasion in order to destroy NATO and seize control of all of Ukraine, and Putin’s original war demands notably include not only demands of Ukraine but of NATO and the West as well.”
• “ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is purposely refraining from publicly discussing the December 2 meeting in order to obfuscate Russia’s rejection of the US-Ukrainian peace proposal that did not concede to all of Russia’s absolutist war demands.”
• “Putin also attempted to obfuscate his rejection of the latest US peace proposal in the December 4 interview.”
• “Putin is attempting to falsely frame his war aims as solely geographically limited to Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Putin falsely claimed that Russia ‘had no choice’ but to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR).”
I’ve read the whole post several times, and it sounds exactly like General Keane—very similar to his commentary when he appears on Fox News. I suspect he may have written it. My interpretation of this report is that General Keane believes Putin is not negotiating in good faith and that the current peace plan is a sham.
This aligns with what I have been saying all day.
Link to the ISW post:
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996935509944258996?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Lucia,
“I think the opposite of you.”
WRT to Ukraine, yup, every exchange in this tread (and others) fairly well screams that is true.
SteveF
Evidently limitations have been proposed. I consider these utterly foolhardy.
Would never need? They need one now. The would need one if they were invaded as they have been. Or maybe you don’t think that’s “huge”. That Mike M and you say they don’t need one…well, I’m not seeing where that comes from.
I think this depends on the peace treaty. It was 8 years between 2014 and 2022. If Ukraine is not allowed a strong standing army and put in a weak position, I think Russian will invade in 5-15 years. When depends on their reading of tea leaves.
I have no idea if that meets your definition of “soon”. If I were a Ukrainian mother with an infant, I would consider 15 years soon. I would consider 20 years soon.
Lucia,
I completely agree with this.
Mark Bofill,
I mean…. Russian has a quite a history of invading or absorbing regardless of NATO.
* Georgia (2008) — invaded right after it failed to get a MAP
* Moldova (Transnistria) — destabilized without any NATO pathway
* Kazakhstan (2022) — Russian troops intervened despite no NATO issue
* Belarus — absorbed de facto without NATO issue
* Chechnya — suppressed brutally despite being internal
Russia consistently acts to maintain control over its “near abroad,” NATO or not. What effect does NATO membership do? Prevent Russia from invading.
Russia would have eventually invaded Ukraine. The question was when? 2014? 2022? Whenever. A similar thing will happen if Ukraine remains free of Russia while still weak and unprotected.
I had forgotten most of those. Well, half anyways.
You can’t state speculation / Putin mind-reading as fact.
The opposite is true, Putin has stated that NATO / Ukraine relations was an existential threat to Russia. Russia talks a lot of smack so that has to be factored in.
Putin’s history of statements on Ukraine / Russia per Gemini:
It is arguable, but not convincingly, that Putin has made it clear that NATO on his borders was a red line. Take Finland for example, but he kind of had his hands full at that time.
The Ukrainian people hate the Russian people. They hate them with every fiber of their being. They hate the Russian leadership. They hate Putin individually. They hate the Russian church, the Russian language, and the Russian culture. And they have good reasons for all this hate.
Beginning in 1654, Muscovy (the early Russian state), the Russian Empire, the Russian Czars, the Soviet Union, and the current Russian state have repeatedly invaded and subjugated the Ukrainian people for more than 350 years. Throughout this history, Russians have often acted as brutal and oppressive overlords toward Ukraine.
Any comparison of the relationship between Ukrainians and Russians to the relationship between Canadians and Americans is ridiculous.
This is a headline from yesterday in the Los Angeles Times… Honest!
“The left’s climate panic is finally calming down”
More quotes:
“Is the American left finally waking up from its decades-long climate catastrophism stupor? For years, climate alarmism has reigned as political catechism.”
“There are green shoots that liberals and elites may be slowly — perhaps grudgingly — giving up on the climate catastrophism hoax to which they have long stubbornly clung.”
“The climate alarm machine — powered by the twin engines of moral panic and groupthink homogeneity — is sputtering.”
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2025-12-05/climate-panic-americans-belief-global-warming
Ed Forbes writes, “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
Russia is not strong. Ukraine is not weak. The war continues because Putin has no off-ramp. He is ruining his country.
Even if he were successful beyond his wildest dreams, Russia would still be toast.
Tom Scharf,
A couple of things.
I’m not. I’ve stated my speculations, I think Lucia has too. We’ve said what we think.
It doesn’t actually matter what Putin says or thinks as far as I am concerned. I happen to think he is a liar, but should it be the case that he genuinely believes his spiel, it doesn’t change any of my views. The legitimacy or illegitimacy of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in my view, has nothing whatsoever to do with what Putin does or does not believe.
lucia wrote”Would never need [a huge standing army]? They need one now. The would need one if they were invaded as they have been.”
A “standing army” is what a country maintains in time of peace. That is typically a lot less than what is needed in time of war. If a fully mobilized nation does not reduce its army following a peace deal, that is a tell that they have no intention of respecting the deal.
The peace deal rumors seem to be that Ukraine will not have a standing army of more than 600K compared to their current wartime army of 800K. That is perfectly reasonable. A standing army of 600K would be huge for a country of Ukraine’s size.
The US army is 452K with a total active military of 1.36M. South Korea, with half again Ukraine’s population, has 500K active duty military. And they are technically still at war.
these days they probably ought to limit the number of drones rather than the number of soldiers
Killing drug traffickers is a war crime.
Ummmmm…no. It is routine for there to be follow up shots on survivors of drone attacks throughout the world under every administration. Judgments are made, risks are taken, when inevitable mistakes are made actual victims (mostly their families) are compensated.
Not to mention everyone in a drug boat knows exactly the risks they are taking today. Debating using the miltary for this effort is fair game, but spare me the lawyer talk once it is under way.
I have mixed opinions of Pete Hegseth but he is right about hardening up the US military’s war fighting mentality and jettisoning the progressive hand wringing lawyers.
Can you imagine these lawyers running a military campaign?
Tom,
Absolutely. This idea that it is a war crime to kill an enemy with a second shot if the first shot didn’t get the job done is frankly ludicrous.
It’s the sort of thing that would never come up if the guy in the White House had a ‘D’ next to his name instead of an ‘R’. Biden kills civilians in cars in the middle east due to intel errors, Obama drones U.S. citizens intentionally; nobody cares. But for the Orange Man it’s time to start talking about war crimes. PuhLeeze.
Tom Scharf wrote: ” Debating using the miltary for this effort is fair game, but spare me the lawyer talk once it is under way.”
Well said.
The comparison between US/Canada and Russia/Ukraine is about how a country views hostile 3rd party military alliances on their border.
We almost went to war with Russia during the Cuban Missile crisis. Regardless of whether Russia is “evil” and Putin is a thug it is worthwhile to understand their arguments.
Two things can be true at the same time, Russia is a local menace run by a thug, and creating creeping NATO alliances on their border is legitimately perceived as a threat and has risk.
Chicken and egg. The alliances are made because Russia is a menace, Russia sees these alliances as a threat. It is a threat to Russia being the neighborhood bully and having local autonomy in their region of influence.
Are the rules that the US gets to have regional autonomy and Russia / China does not? The US can send Ukraine long range missiles actually launched into Russian territory(!) but Russia cannot send (nuclear) offensive missiles to Cuba?
Canada / Mexico are good enough neighbors but everyone knows the score. Don’t make military alliances with Russia / China. It’s a red line and will be met with increasing hostility, see Cuba or even Nicaragua.
My reading of the situation is if I’m Mexico or Ukraine then the highest priority of protecting my citizens is not becoming a pawn in a conflict between global powers. That path leads to ruins.
I should’ve kept my mouth shut. I wasn’t all that interested to begin with (in talking about the Ukraine Russian war legitimacy) and the more the discussion goes on the less interested I am in continuing it. Suffice it to say that I disagree with the conclusions drawn from the analogies between Canada and Ukraine in many cases, but I don’t care enough to discuss the details of my disagreement. So long as there are grounds for an attentive reader to not misconstrue my silence for agreement (and with this comment, hopefully that criteria is now satisfied) I’m done with this. Thanks though all.
Important historical context….
While Canada and the United States have enjoyed a “mostly peaceful” border for 250 years, there was one period of armed conflict.
A bunch of drunken Irishman from Pittsburgh banded together and invaded Canada. it was called the Fenian Raids.
It didn’t end well.
https://www.islandinstitute.org/island-journal/when-the-irish-invaded-canada/
MikeM
The relevant size to compare it too is how large it needs to be to repel a Russian invasion. It’s small compared to that. I think it’s unwise of Ukraine to reduce to that if they don’t want Russia to invade again soon.
If Russia intends to abide by this peace, they will not be bothered by Ukraine keeping it’s military at it’s current size. Them wanting it smaller is a sign they don’t intend to abide by the peace.
This is irrelevant to how large Ukraine’s need to be. Ukraine has been invaded by it’s much larger neighbor. It needs a military large enough to repel that.
Bringing in irrelevant comparisons that ignore the relevant issue: potential invasion by Russia isn’t a valid way to estimate how large an Army Ukraine needs.
Mark
Nearly everyone is speculating in some regard. Those accusing you and me of speculating or mind reading are also speculating.
Of course we all are. This situation requires gauging whether we think actors are lying about motives — and some clearly have in the past. It requires speculating what different actors will do under certain circumstances, that requires both guessing if they are lying and whether they would change their minds. We are trying to predict the future based on the past.
To the extent we speculate, we bring up what we know about what actors have done in the long past, recent past and so on.
Tom
That’s why I think Ukraine should not accept any limitation on their standing army in a peace treaty. That is proposed by those wishing them to be a pawn.
Russell,
The Feinian raids come up in the Netflix series “House of Guiness”.
Indiana is the Big Ten champion. What a game..
Indiana defeated number one, Ohio State, for the championship.
First time Indiana has won the championship since 1945.
I do not follow the Big Ten very often, down here in SEC territory, but I was impressed with both teams defense.
The problem for Russia in ending the war is that there will be a never ending call for Reparations for Ukraine for the damage inflicted on it by Russia.
The EU, emboldened by the ceasefire will begin to make aggressive noises to show how brave they are when there is no risk.
The Soviet Union, not having lost the war is in an invidious position of having to stop when it is winning, not the way it usually happens.
–
The best result for both sides would be a neutral zone with an independent international armed presence in the disputed zones with an option for votes to move one way or the other in 20 years.
Access to sea ports for both sides ad a share in the wealth from farming and mining to both sides.
Obviously a pipe dream but with the bonus of actually ameliorating the situation for both sides.
–
Second best is a peace by force with no reparations, limited Ukrainian security and protection for Russia from threats of being sued or having Russian assets frozen.
If this can be negotiated it would save a lot of lives.
Again Russia might need to be ceded the right to some land but again this might be achieved by promising a referendum on stay or go or remain neutral in 20 years time.
–
No matter what happens a successful mediation means no-one is really happy.
angech,
“angecha”
Did you have a gender change? 😉
The results of negotiations often include compromises that many find unfair. It is common for people to be unhappy about anything they perceive as unfair. Perfectly human characteristic. Simian characteristic too.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=meiU6TxysCg
Indiana has historically been one of the worst college football teams of all time. It was a huge triumph and they give hope to all middling teams out there. Stuff like this is what makes college football a great sport.
Ohio State missing a short field goal near the end of the game was a huge blunder for them. Post game interviews were full of “glory be to God” which was a bit different. It will be interesting to see if they can survive the CFP. I doubt it, but I will be rooting for them.
NYT: How Biden Ignored Warnings and Lost Americans’ Faith in Immigration
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/us/politics/biden-immigration-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.608.FkaU.cXVg7-zeSQ96
The NYT’s tells their readers what everyone else already knew, that Biden could have tackled the border crisis but explicitly chose to not do so.
What is funny is how they had to basically pre-apologize to their readers for writing this article:
How dare they give readers information that doesn’t conform to the progressive worldview, this must be explained. Hilarious.
More typical is this genre of journalism. The one sided “tell the story with carefully selected anecdotal stories”.
The Innocent Bystanders Caught in Deadly Crossfire of Self-Defense Shootings
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/homicides-bystanders-stand-your-ground-law-60829b8d?st=k2fj4t&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Incredibly the tone of this story is that the people who accidentally shoot other people in self defense situations should be charged. How about the instigator of the original crime be charged?
Completely absent (basically a decades long ban in legacy media) are anecdotal stories of defensive gun use that save the day either by shooting a perpetrator or preventing a conflict.
I’ve read that something north of 90% of the time, just producing a gun in a self defense situation is enough to resolve the conflict. The assailant suddenly realizes he has better things to do (like, continuing to live) and the situation ends immediately. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but to my (admittedly biased) way of thinking it seems pretty reasonable.
This may or may not be true, and some subset of times it probably escalates the conflict if both people are armed. However the main point is the complete lack of curiosity for DGU by the legacy media and the associated statistics and sometimes good outcomes. It’s probably not so great for every Rambo Joe out there to settle things with a firearm but I’m pretty certain I’m only getting half the story.
Slightly related: This dude has a $1M firearms collection, unbelievable. A good friend for the apocalypse.
https://youtu.be/RLjks5dmNEc
my son said as we were watching the game, that kid from Ohio State who missed the short field goal and lost the game will be thinking about that kick until he’s an old man.
“Trump Needs a New Ukraine Strategy”…. Time magazine.
Yes, it’s well past time. It’s been obvious that Putin is just playing everybody.
Here’s the crux of the issue in my mind:
“First, instead of trying to change Putin’s mind, the Trump Administration should focus on changing his capabilities. As long as Russia can keep taking territory in Ukraine—however incremental and irrespective of the massive numbers of Russians that must die to do so—Putin will keep fighting.”
https://time.com/7338952/trump-ukraine-putin-russia-strategy/
If the US / EU / NATO really wanted Ukraine to “win” they would behave differently. From the start the exhibited behavior has been to allow Russia to win but at great cost. Throttle weapons delivery to make the war a quagmire.
I don’t think Trump cares much about Ukraine, he is acting like neutral arbiter. Quite frankly I don’t think the EU cares much either.
If anybody wants that to change that then they need to make different arguments that include potential escalations to all out war that carries a lot of risk.
What do you think Russia would do if they started losing? The chance of Putin using tactical nukes before a humiliating loss to the west seems pretty high in my estimation.
Tom posted:
“The chance of Putin using tactical nukes before a humiliating loss to the West seems pretty high in my estimation.”
Yes — it’s important to remember that Putin still has terrible weapons he has refrained from using. Any battlefield escalation carries the risk of provoking a wider war.
It makes me think that maintaining the status quo may actually be the smartest course. Prolong the war until Russia eventually disintegrates from within. I wonder if that’s too much to hope for.
The never-ending battle for Pokrovsk continues. Russia has been claiming victory for months.
Chuck Pfarrer estimates that Russian forces now control 40–60% of the city; he further estimates that they have suffered roughly 1,000 casualties since December 1.
The battle has been ongoing for 21 months, with Russian troops repeatedly attacking well-entrenched Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainians have extracted a heavy toll while conducting a slow, fighting retreat. Russian losses have been astronomical.
Full historical write-up:
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1997706333622276316?s=20
You know, for at least the entire first half of the first movie Rambo was just trying to get people to leave him the hell alone and not using weapons. All he wanted was a place to eat, if memory serves. Just saying.
Mark,
I’ve never watched Rambo. I’ve also never watched Titanic. I understand the boat sinks in the end.
Yeah. I’ve seen them both. I wish I could tell you you’re really missing out on something. I guess you are; a waste of a few hours of your life mostly.
I just finished watching a five-year, 43-episode series on PBS Masterpiece that I highly recommend. The show is Poldark:
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/masterpiece/shows/poldark/
From ChatGPT:
Poldark follows Captain Ross Poldark, a brooding British officer who returns to Cornwall after fighting in the American Revolutionary War, only to find his father dead, his estate in ruins, and his childhood love engaged to another man. As Ross rebuilds his life, he becomes entangled in the region’s harsh mining economy, bitter class conflicts, and a turbulent romance with Demelza, a young woman he rescues from poverty. The series blends personal drama, political tension, and sweeping Cornish landscapes into a story about resilience, loyalty, and the fight for justice in 18th-century England.
Russell
This Poldark is a remake from, if I remember correctly, the 1970’s.
As what tends to happen, the original looks to me to be better than the remake.
That said, the new version is worth watching
Maria Druska:
“Make Russia Broke Again ”
“Russian oil revenue drop: record discounts offered to China.
Russia’s ability to finance the war keeps getting worse. After US sanctions kicked in, not all December cargoes were sold and they are slashing prices in a desperate attempt to find buyers.
Make Russia Broke Again ”
Grok:
The revenue decline, potentially cutting Russian oil exports by up to 1.4 million barrels per day per Economist estimates, underscores vulnerabilities in Moscow’s energy-dependent economy amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1997945996290957778?s=20
Tom Scharf,
“How dare they give readers information that doesn’t conform to the progressive worldview..”
Suitable only for cleaning fish.
Tom Scharf,
I think Trump is acting in ways that are consistent with motivating negotiations over Ukraine: Adding even more economic sanctions on Russia, while limiting the use of US made long range weapons.
And yes, I do believe Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons were Russia actually losing ground in Ukraine due to USA/European weapons. Bringing troops from NATO countries into Ukraine would almost guarantee it. I believe there would be a significant chance of nuclear armageddon shortly thereafter.
Never watched Rambo. I did see Titanic…… at least it wasn’t terribly ‘woke’.
Tom
What’s interesting is they answer the question of why the write this now. But they don’t really address the question of why they didn’t investigate questions about the border crisis while Biden was in office.
I mean, whether the liked it or not, it already was a politically contentious back then. People were arguing: i.e. contending. But they preferred to ignore it and just give Biden party line answers as if those were answers.
And yes, that affected where we got to on immigration. It was rather obvious there was a “crisis” already in the Biden era. And it was rather obvious Biden was making “policy decisions”.
What “critical legislation”? The “let everyone one in and forgive them” act of 2021? It was going to regularize the DACA kids– which is a nice thing. But it also had no provisions that would help with surging illegal migration at the border.
Or the 2024 bill– which Trump did encourage the Senate to block. That’s what killed it. It’s too bad. It wasn’t a bad bill. But neither Biden or Kamala did much to promote this bill– get it in front of the public. Some Democrats were happy for it to die. While it was bipartisan, progressives hated it.
So: Progressives hated it and Trump killed it.
Steve F
Well… yeah. Otherwise, they would have covered immigration more during the Biden administration!
Lucia,
“While it was bipartisan, progressives hated it.”
Conservatives hated it even more than progressives, and that is what killed the bill.
It only required restrictions on the number of people “temporarily admitted” based on asylum claims when that number was above a truly outrageous level. In essence, it codified in law what the Biden administration was already doing: allowing huge numbers of people to enter illegally and stay for years, if not indefinitely. “Show up for a hearing on your asylum claims in 2027. In the mean time you can take a free bus ride to Chicago and look for a job.” isn’t much of a deterrent.
I think the drop in illegal entries over the past 10 months (and the departure of ~2 million illegals already present since Trump enter office) shows that the problem was always that the Biden administration refused to restrict illegal entry, not a lack of immigration laws.
SteveF
Well… yes. The existing laws did allow the executive to restrict illegal entry.
The thing is: while bipartisan, it was a bill that was disliked by both ends. So while the Biden people are now wanting to throw around that the GOP people blocked it, it was also a bill the progressives also didn’t like and neither Biden nor Kamala pushed. It’s not like Biden/Harris were begging anyone to pass that bill. Because it did contain things important to their heart that they didn’t want in a bill either!
It wasn’t hard to block/kill. It’s accurate to say Trump and progressives “blocked it”– but really, almost no one– Dem or GOP — was running with that football. Dems weren’t going to pick up that bill and try to get it past the block.
lucia wrote: “Or the 2024 bill– which Trump did encourage the Senate to block. That’s what killed it. It’s too bad. It wasn’t a bad bill.”
It was a truly horrible bill that Republicans would likely have killed even without encouragement from Trump. As SteveF says, it would have only modestly reduced the flood of illegals under Biden. But it also would have restricted the President’s power to close the border. If that bill had passed, the border would still be open.
The primary purpose of the bill was to enable Biden to falsely claim “The Republicans won’t give me the power to close the border”.
…..as Trump famously said:
“We didn’t need to change the law, we just needed to change the President”
just like I was sayin…..
Putin: “The measures taken in the field of demography are insufficient, and the birth rate continues to decline.”
https://x.com/warosintnews/status/1998033514999259516?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Personally I supported the bill because it changed the law towards asylum.
The asylum loophole is the key to deterring future illegal immigration by tying the hands of the executive with this loophole. While it is correct that this bill was imperfect in all the stated ways this change was worth it IMO. We should take every opportunity to tighten asylum claims. As they say … I stand alone on this one ha ha.
As it sits now the next president can pretty much dial immigration anywhere they want it. Maybe they would do it anyway but asylum is a mess.
Another low profile case before the SC today has major ramifications for how the government is run, namely whether the executive can remake “independent” commissions and agencies as they see fit.
I understand why Congress would want independent agencies to prevent whiplash politically motivated policy changes (see the Fed).
However the electorate needs to be protected against a self dealing governing class that creates rules / effective laws that are beyond voter accountability. Assume corrupt agencies that do not serve the citizens (NPR, ha ha), the voters should be able to elect a Trump-like president that can eliminate that corruption.
Where one falls on this aligns with whether one trusts the concept of benevolent technocrats doing their job.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/supreme-court-trump-firings-federal-workers-075c1ab0?st=BjGm3a&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
As an aside remember all the doomsayers screeching about the end of times when some agencies were shuddered by Trump? Where is it?
A diva moved out of the country because she hated Trump and now wants to move back.
I hope Trump doesn’t let her back in.
“Ellen DeGeneres And Her Wife Portia De Rossi To Return To California? Here’s What We Know”
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-buzz/ellen-degeneres-and-her-wife-portia-de-rossi-to-return-to-california-heres-what-we-know-article-153227830
“Ellen DeGeneres and Portia De Rossi quit the UK, say country life was too boring, head back to the US”
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/ellen-degeneres-and-portia-de-rossi-quit-the-uk-say-country-life-was-too-boring-head-back-to-the-us/articleshow/125806294.cms?from=mdr
To answer a question from a while back: Home or pharmacy testing for influenza and COVID probably won’t get you a prescription for tamiflu or paxlovid. I called my PCP’s office and a nurse met me in a nearby parking lot and did swabs. They don’t want you in the building if you’re symptomatic. There was no copay, but the EOB form said that the tests were billed at $300 each. I forget how much my Medicare Advantage policy actually paid. I tested positive for influenza A and they called in a prescription for tamiflu to my local pharmacy. About three days later, my symptoms went away. They were pretty mild to start with, though.
My wife got a Paxlovid prescription about a year ago with a call to her PCP and a report of a positive result.
Now getting Paxlovid paid for is an entirely different story. Most private insurers don’t cover it now and with Medicare you need to fill out some forms (USG PAP) that basically do income qualifications among other things. This all changes again in 2026. A moving target.
Russell Klier,
“I hope Trump doesn’t let her back in”
If she didn’t become a UK citizen, formally renounce her US citizenship and surrender her passport, I don’t think there’s any way he can legally prevent it, unfortunately.
I would be very surprised if DeGeneris or Rossi renounced US citizenship. If you are wealthy, it’s actually very costly– in taxes owed. There might be a way to become a successful scofflaw, but not if you have or retain property in the US or live in the US. The IRS is going trace your money and you and demand the taxes.
There are other reasons I doubt they would renounce– but the cost is high for people who have money.
Tom Scharf,
“Now getting Paxlovid paid for is an entirely different story.”
Without insurance, you can get Paxlovid for about $1,600. Based on my experience, and that of three close relatives, Paxlovid is probably worth about that much, but any higher price and it might well NOT be worth it. For sure that price is going to be out of reach for a lot of people who would buy it at a lower price. It was initially priced near $500… and definitely worth that price. Now, at $1,600? Maybe not.
The wierd thing with Paxlovid: Pfizer apparently took a pair of existing “off the shelf” compounds and sold them together. Unlike many drugs, Paxlovid was NOT the product of years of research….
“took a pair of existing “off the shelf” compounds ”
I take that back. One was off the shelf, the other was a modification of an earlier off-the-shelf compound. Still, not years of development…. a few months effort.
The SC oral arguments today I listened to were not so one sided as the legacy media is reporting. In summary:
Many agencies wield both legislative/judicial and executive power. That is fundamentally not going to change.
Structurally today a single person that heads an agency can be removed by the president without cause, multi-member agencies (usually from both parties) can have conditions placed on their removal by Congress. This multi-member vs single head difference is a historical artifact / compromise.
What seemed obvious is that any remedy to the problem of multi-member agencies not directly answerable to the voters was another set of messy line drawing problems. (e.g. a judicial commission that wields 15% executive power being overtaken by the executive without cause).
They clearly wanted a carve out for the Fed but struggled to tie that to any principle.
The current system in place has more or less worked for 100 years but its constitutional foundation is rather creaky.
I have not a clue how they will rule on this one.
Tom Scharf,
I think there is a better than 50/50 chance the court will overturn Humphry’s and allow presidents to fire all management level executive department employees. There are 4 solid votes to overturn, and two iffy votes (Roberts and Barrett). If Roberts votes no, then there is a better chance Barrett will as well….. she seems to vote with Roberts most of the time.
I think on the merits Humphry’s is not a good decision (it was after all a bunch of conservatives on the court sticking it to Roosevelt), but Roberts HATES overturing long-standing rulings.
Could a Democrat Congress and Democrat President set up a set up a commission to set all auto and truck fuel economy rules, with members given protection from firing for 35 years? (For life?) I would hope not.
I think that (or similar) is the question the Court’s conservatives are asking. Voters should have a means to hold government accountable, and Humphry’s stomps all over that concept.
Speaking of the SC, Alito (75) and Thomas (77) both sound like the only way they leave the court is in a coffin. Which is very bad for conservatives, since similarly inclined replacements could almost certainly be confirmed by the Senate through the end of Trump’s term in office, establishing a moderately conservative majority for 20 years or so.
What happens in Nov 2028 and beyond is anybody’s guess….. but there are shadows of Ginsberg looming.
Congress can theoretically setup an agency lead by a multi-member coalition of one party that serves long terms that cannot be fired without cause as per current interpretations.
They just haven’t done that so far, as it would likely find itself in front of the SC. They generally do staggered terms with a requirement of members from both parties.
AFAICT these are mostly gentlemen’s agreement rules not tied to clear constitutional foundations that deal with gray areas of power sharing between branches.
There just doesn’t seem to be an easy answer, when you take away one branch’s power and give it to another there are winners and losers.
Pocahontas’s CFPB was a pretty big abuser of the process. I don’t necessarily disagree with an agency to deal with consumer financial scams but she wanted a separate branch of government.
There are easy answers. Don’t expand the government, that’s easy.
Mark Bofill has the correct answer.
Tom Scharf,
“Pocahontas’s CFPB was a pretty big abuser of the process.”
It isn’t so much that they want to protect consumers from scams (which most people would support), it is that they want to control what terms/conditions are allowed in financial transactions by individuals. Basically, command-and-control of the financial industry, at least WRT individuals. Congress should just pass appropriate laws against financial scams, and the DOJ enforce those laws. There is zero need for an unaccountable agency like the CFPB.
Interesting development: Many MAGA fans are getting restless about the continuing rise in the cost of living after 11 months of Trump in office. Retail prices are expected to rise by a bit over 4% in 2025, following a bit over 3% in 2024. Part of this is monetary inflation working its way through the economy, but part is surely due to import duties raising prices on imported materials and finished products. The costs for duties is already showing up in retail prices, but the longer term benefit of increased domestic production, showing up as increased average wages for the lower half of earners, will take much longer.
Trump seems to be in denial about increasing retail prices (an import duty is a tax on consumption after all), which will not help his approval rating. Trump could re-negotiate trade conditions with countries where he has place duties, but that would not be a good look for him (in trumpian terms: WEAK!!!). Of course, he may soon have no choice, should the SC rule that he can’t unilaterally set import duties.
Governments can quickly and easily screw up economies, but improving them is usually slow and painful. It is the doom of democracies that voters generally in large numbers are unable or unwilling to grasp this.
Maybe SC will save him from himself and save us at the same time (as you say), if his tariffs are really the driving factor. Maybe they are one of the main driving factors, I don’t know. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, that’s about all I’m sure of.
SteveF wrote: ” Retail prices are expected to rise by a bit over 4% in 2025″.
Huh? The inflation numbers I have seen are 2.7-3.0%, depending on the measure.
What evidence is there that tariffs are causing significant overall price increases? It ought to be possible to get an idea of that by looking at the detailed components of inflation. I have not seen a recent analysis.
Any “inflation” due to tariffs ought to be a one time blip. I doubt that would be more than a few tenths of a percentage point since imports excluding NAFTA are about 7% of GDP and exporters will eat a good chunk of the tariffs.
I don’t think Trump is in denial about inflation. He did seem to be in denial, but he has changed his tune. And he has dropped tariffs on food products where there is no significant domestic competition.
One of the problems with law enforcement is that they don’t even investigate financial scams for the most part. I have read endless articles on people losing large amounts of money to fraudsters, receive lots of “invitations” to financial fraud, and know people taken in. Pro Tip: If paying off your toll fine involves putting money into a bitcoin ATM then you might want to rethink that.
Law enforcement does little about it because it is hard to trace (thank you privacy advocates!) and the perps are not local. You will get plenty of attention if rob the local 7-11 though.
Like the border and shoplifting a big part of the problem is that there is little penalty for engaging in these crimes. Arresting somebody in an India call center engaging in pig butchering is pretty tough but a few high profile crack downs with long sentences may deter the rest.
My Dad is 93 and moderately coherent but he could easily fall for this type of thing. A federal agency like the CFPB that specialized in these type of financial crimes is needed, just not Warren’s vision of attacking corporations.
The SC case is about the ability for the executive to fire leaders of a multi-member agency bypassing any congressional limits on removal. It does not address the executive firing employees or constraining a budget already allocated by Congress. Those may also come up eventually.
Tom,
It does not follow in my opinion that merely because a problem exists that therefore obviously a new federal agency is needed to solve the problem. On the contrary, I think there is a steep burden of proof that should by default be required of such claims. I think the reasons for this are obvious.
Gaza has 68 million tons of rubble. UN says best case is 5 to 7 years to clear it. They haven’t started because of Hamas squabbling to stay in power and refusing to disarm. No word on whether all the US protesters are planning on helping out.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-rubble-reconstruction-israel-war-85f12cfa?st=MQSiNY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Local law enforcement doesn’t have the jurisdiction, technical ability, or international reach to investigate financial fraud like this, the Feds have to do it. It doesn’t have to be another agency it could be a specialized section of the FBI. This type of crime is rather specialized and requires a different set of tools to attack.
$12M lost in bitcoin ATM scams in 2020.
$124M lost in bitcoin ATM scams in 2023.
$250M lost in bitcoin ATM scams in 2024.
Robberies are about $500M / year.
One option is they can continue to do nothing and consumers can fend for themselves. The question is whether there are any available cost efficient options to shut down this fraud. A blunt tool is to outlaw or restrict bitcoin ATM’s.
Maybe consumer awareness is the best answer. My guess is the fraudsters will embrace AI and further automate.
Attempts to regulate bitcoin ATM’s:
The FBI and Congress are slowly stepping up but the usual sluggish response.
$250M lost in the first 6 months of 2025 suggesting yet another doubling.
I doubt the Feds will have much impact on this regardless, honestly. It turns into a value call. How much reduction for how much cost justifies action? It’s sort of hand wavey. Why would the slightly reduced level of fraud be better at a cost of $$?
Or is it just ‘well, we did something’? I sure don’t think Federal initiatives just for the heck of it are a good idea either.
TLDR : You need evidence that the Feds can actually solve the problem or at least make a dent in it that justifies the cost and effort.
I had no idea there were Bitcoin ATM’s. Now I am wondering what legitimate purpose they serve, especially given the huge fees they charge.
One has to laugh. Apparently Trump had two rental properties in the 1990s with mortgages obtained as a primary residence. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/09/trump-mortgage-records-primary-dwelling
“Each mortgage contained standard occupancy requirements mandating Trump make the property his principal residence within 60 days and live there at least one year.”
OSINT just spotted a Ukrainian F-16 with a weapons upgrade … a Sniper/ PANTERA Targeting Pod.
Mark may have more information on how important this is, but ChatGPT told me the following:
PANTERA provides high-resolution mid-wave FLIR (infrared), daylight video (CCD/TV), and a dual-mode laser designator/laser spot-tracker — allowing positive target identification, autonomous tracking, and precise laser- or GPS-guided weapon delivery.
It enables long-range target detection and engagement, even in low-light, smoky, or weather-obscured conditions, keeps the aircraft farther from enemy air defenses (due to its extended standoff range), and supports modern command-and-control: it can generate precise geo-coordinates, stream real-time video / sensor data to ground or other air units, and guide munitions against fixed or moving targets.
Image attached to a Ukrainian F-16:
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1998469623784653001?s=20
I know nothing about that system.
Someone can pay cash to your/their bitcoin account from anywhere using a bitcoin ATM. It’s like Zelle for those without bank accounts and so forth.
Obviously the criminal element has uses for these, but there is enough legitimate use to probably prevent their outright removal due to misuse. In theory you are only allowed to deposit money to your own crypto account but there is no actual restriction.
Crypto companies say fraud at their machines is approx. 2%. One machine in Arizona had $118K deposited in fraud in one year.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2025/10/us/crypto-atm-scams-companies-profit-invs-vis/
Convenience store clerks who call the cops as they watch seniors shoveling money into them are kind of the heroes. There’s a lot of scams out there but this type is out of control.
Mike M,
You are right, the value through September 2025 suggests just about 3% for all of 2025, not much different from all of 2024. (the value I quoted up thread was an outlier). I do think at least some of that increase is due to import duties (you can see it most clearly in prices for almost uniformly imported products like kitchen appliances). That is not inflation, but consumer-observable price increases nonetheless.
Still, there MAGA faithful do seem impatient that prices continue to rise as before Trump.
HaroldW,
All the rich and famous lie on their mortgage applications it seems. 😉
We plebs don’t dare.
Mortgage fraud seemed like an equal opportunity crime by political party.
The honest person doesn’t lie, even when they know they would never be caught. Same with golfers BTW! The dishonest person lies when they think they will never be caught.
Most politicians are dishonest people, so they have no problem with lies on a mortgage application. The old joke about moving lips seems apropos.
In fairness to politicians, if they did not constantly lie to their constituents, many (most?) would never get elected.
SteveF, I agree with all of your observations above.
If I were European, I would be a little nervous:
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1ccf8898-e600-4e0f-b7f3-9adeec11c7ce_2474x1431.jpeg
And that graphic doesn’t include privately controlled companies like SpaceX.
The EC is on a trajectory for a GDP of half the USA’s by 2030…. but with a total population that is 32% larger. So in ~5 years, the average European will have about 1/3 of the income of the average person in the USA. There is greater income disparity in the USA, of course, but such a large difference in GDP means less money available for national defense, less available for health care, and most of all, less wealth available for investment in new businesses.
Let me tell you about Sheriff Grady Judd. Judd is sheriff of Polk County Florida (pronounced poke!).
He is middle-aged, portly, balding, short, and the meanest man in the state of Florida.
He is famous for viral YouTube videos of news conferences after his deputies perform a feat of derring-do.
For example from memory…..
A bad guy shot and killed one of his deputies and the deputy’s K9 partner and fled into a brushy area in the middle of the night. Sheriff Judd surrounded the area overnight and in the morning sent his SWAT team in shoulder to shoulder and shot the man 68 times. When challenged by a reporter as to why they shot him 68 times sheriff Judd said: “We shot him 68 times because we ran out of bullets if we had more bullets, we would’ve shot him more times.”
another time he described filling a perpetrator with so many holes, you could read a newspaper through him.
Yesterday he produced another video that is destined to be a classic….
Watch it, you will learn a few things:
https://youtu.be/U9sCasgpfOU?si=no6MBG51JMKcsHgs
Polk County is an enormous piece of land between Orlando and Tampa with about 800,000 citizens.
I think we may have gone full circle. I think a liberal arts education may again become the important thing in our world with the advent of AI. The ability to think and speak clearly assumes exaggerated importance in a world where being able to orchestrate AIs is the marketable skill. Precision of thought and expression are key. Technical literacy will always remain important perhaps, but language is the new programming syntax.
I must say, it’s a fantastic time to be alive in some ways! Hardly ever a dull moment anymore.
mark bofill,
“I think a liberal arts education may again become the important thing in our world with the advent of AI. ”
Are those folks going to know when AI is hallucinating on a matter of technical fact? I doubt it. Besides, many technical types are quite capable of clear and concise prose, even without the benefit of having studied socialist inspired theories of…. well… of just about everything (AKA a typical liberal arts education).
Yep, The video I told you about above from Sheriff Judd is going viral. It has a half million views in less than a day…. And news articles in the national press:
“Florida Sheriff Gives Electric Press Conference After Arresting Eight Youths For Stupid Crime: WATCH”
Here it is again:
https://youtu.be/U9sCasgpfOU?si=j02T_GDcvNac-QH4
The EU is dithering once again on spending in Ukraine. They are all spending less than 0.1% of their GDP on military aid and can’t possibly be bothered to continue this burden. If only fanciful rhetoric could be cashed in. Instead they want to take Russian frozen assets and loan them to Ukraine (not a bad idea …).
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/using-russian-assets-to-help-ukraine-is-looking-like-europes-least-bad-option-f25c6df8?st=2nqDtK&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The AI tool can create the artful prose for you, I think it levels the playing field for the skill of writing as long as you know how to use the tool.
The counter argument is that anyone can now simulate a liberal arts major with a few prompts. They may not understand all the words though.
Smart people will be able to use AI more effectively as they do with most other tools. AI will up everybody’s game and hopefully everyone will benefit.
OTOH the barrier to entry for things like designing and building bioweapons will be lowered.
Steve,
I’m sorry, I probably spoke poorly. I certainly didn’t mean liberal arts as it has become today (I.E., grievance studies), but rather the classical idea, liberal arts as they once were. To be clear, I certainly agree that socialist inspired theories of everything (critical X theories, neo marxism, most post structuralism, etc) are essentially worthless unless your goal is to be a termite and gnaw on the foundations of Western civilization. It’s not what I meant at all.
Tom,
Interesting that you say this:
Daniel Dennett might have said that the ‘center of narrative gravity’ in this case lies outside of the user’s mind (were he still alive). Is it the operator using the AI or the AI using the operator at this point? Dennett viewed AI as fundamentally parasitic.
[Edit: A famous Dennett quotation: “A scholar is just a library’s way of making another library.”]
In news not related to Ukraine or the Supreme Court, the State Department is reverting back to using Times New Roman as its standard typeface. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign-policy/3913018/marco-rubio-department-type-font-times-new-roman-calibri-anti-dei-move/
I recall studies from the 1980s and 1990s that told me using serifed typefaces for printed matter and non-serifed typefaces for electronic presentations was the easiest for most people to read. This study (https://www.tonerbuzz.com/blog/which-fonts-use-the-least-ink-toner/) also claims that Times New Roman is a little more efficient than Calibri in terms of toner use.
Yay, data — I wish Rubio had cited that as a reason for the reversion!
My favorite football game of the year, Army versus Navy, is this Saturday:
“Each helmet that @NavyFB will be wearing this Saturday takes 4 hours to paint.
Take a look behind the scenes at the process of getting these helmets ready for the big game!”
https://x.com/navyathletics/status/1998507618831315181?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Furin cleavage site found in bat coronavirus in Brazil
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/new-coronavirus-subspecies-sars-cov-2-mutation-discovered-brazilian-bat
“The discovery hints that the mutation isn’t uncommon”
Out of hundreds of bat coronaviruses, they found one with a furin cleavage site and say that “hints that the mutation isn’t uncommon”. Right.
I remember that there were two separate issues: 1) a furin cleavage site is very uncommon in coronaviruses, and 2) the base sequence to insert that cleavage site in the Covid virus was not the “native” way it is found in other viruses. Is there a publication showing the genetic sequence in question for the Brazilian bat?
The study is 1) not peer reviewed, and 2) a quick read suggests the authors are sketchy WRT whether this specific mutation leads to human susceptibility to infection.
Mike M,
Virologists have some motivation to try to discount the gain-of-function-lab-leak explanation. After all, “Researchers in our field killed 20 million, but it was just an innocent mistake.” doesn’t bode well for funding of gain of function research, which it seems is what they all want to do.
Tom Scharf
“ Instead they want to take Russian frozen assets and loan them to Ukraine (not a bad idea …).”
–
Debatable even though Trump himself said it was a bad idea.
–
Look at the layering.
We take Russias money to give to Ukraine
.brilliant.
A bit like the circular firing squad gambit.
What could possibly go wrong when Russia objects?
1. They cut off all oil and gas supplies to Europe
2. They freeze European assets and use them to replace the lost Russian assets.
3. They starve third world countries by blocking export of Ukraine grain through Russian controlled ports.
4. To 26.
27. Ahem, did Russia mention the Nuckear word if anyone gets too egregious?
–
it us one thing to suggest putting a bell on a cat
Another very foolish thing to actually try to do it.
–
Europe talks tough when it has no skin in the game and it has no skin in the game because it chickened out with Obama and Biden 8 years and 3 years ago
Both my doctor and my pharmacist have recommended that I get a tetanus vaccine since I haven’t had one in over 10 years. I’ll probably do it next week. I’m wondering if people here have any thoughts about this vaccine… everyone seems to have opinions about other vaccines
YouTubeTV announced a major change in streaming TV pricing yesterday:
“Early next year, we’ll launch YouTubeTV Plans, bringing more choice and flexibility to our subscribers with over 10 genre-specific packages.”
So if you only use the service to watch sports and news (like me), you won’t have to pay for 99 channels you don’t watch (like three Hallmark channels). This could revolutionize the industry, and competitors may have to follow suit.
YouTube TV blog post:
“Introducing YouTube TV Plans, launching early 2026”
https://blog.youtube/news-and-events/introducing-youtube-tv-plans-launching-early-2026/
Details are still sketchy but there’s a new peace proposal on the table from the Trump administration. The rumble is they’re proposing a ‘Korea scenario’ peace process.
The details are still emerging, from NOELREPORTS:
“The plan includes a demilitarized zone from Donetsk to Kherson, with both sides keeping territorial claims, similar to North and South Korea.”
“Ukraine could join the EU by 2027, and the US would offer NATO-style security guarantees though Kyiv wants them ratified by Congress.”
“Ukraine would also grow its army to 800,000 and reject any limits on its forces. Meanwhile, $100B from frozen Russian assets would go to rebuilding Ukraine, with a $400B recovery fund under discussion with BlackRock and the World Bank. Trump reportedly wants similar programs for Russia too.”
Russell
Your posted “peace plan “ by Trump borders on delusion. Thinking that a Korean style cease fire would be acceptable to Russia is the very essence of wishful thinking, bordering on complete nonsense.
.
The major takeaway from these plans is that they are being drawn up without ANY input from Russia. Good luck with that.
Ed, your post:
“The major takeaway from these plans is that they are being drawn up without ANY input from Russia. Good luck with that.”
If that is true, I say it’s about damn time.
Trump has been canoodling with Putin for a year and then springing it on Ukraine and Europe. That process has certainly gotten nowhere.??
Perhaps this proposal is merely (or if not merely, possibly in part) a negotiating tactic to motivate Putin to negotiate. Art of the deal and all that.
I don’t know, I haven’t recently looked into this any further than reading the remarks here, so I quite literally have no idea of what I’m talking about. Just an idea that occurred to me.
Russell,
Yeah. I think Ed’s claim of ” without ANY input from Russia” is rather unbelievable. He must be reading it on some sites run by Russian bots.
I await YouTube TV pricing for sports. I’d expect at least $50 but even that would be worthy. I’m guessing they will throw in all kinds of extra sports channels and sell it for $70.
I don’t see how Russia would accept this when they have the advantage on the battlefield and little blowback domestically.
At this point NATO would need to line up its forces in Ukraine at the proposed ceasefire line and dare Russia to cross it with the threat of all out war. The US isn’t going to commit to anything the EU doesn’t commit to first and they aren’t going to do anything. They can’t even muster up 0.1% of GDP.
It’s got to be pretty frustrating for Ukraine watching the global parlor games as their country is destroyed in slow motion. Given where this thing is heading today Ukraine may have been better off surrendering on day 1. They can ask Gaza how their plan holding hostages worked out for them.
My main point is neither the US nor the EU cares enough about Ukraine and they are being used. They know it but what can they do? Keep making every inch painful for Russia and hope something changes.
AI Hackers Are Coming Dangerously Close to Beating Humans
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-hackers-are-coming-dangerously-close-to-beating-humans-4afc3ad6?st=Xtt3SV&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Benevolent academics are training AI’s to do “network penetration testing” and competing against humans. No way this could go wrong. Apparently China is actively using AI to automate hacking.
Just a few years ago this was the scenario the AI doomsters were calling out, an unfiltered arms race between state and non-state actors without adult supervision. AI exceeding human ability, whether through scale or ingenuity, is a potential threshold. Still years away from Skynet but no longer decades.
OTOH hacking toolkits compiled by humans have been around for a while so this isn’t exactly groundbreaking. The possibility exists for AI to scan open source code that runs networking infrastructure at scale for new exploits. Security by obscurity may make a comeback.
Hopefully. It’s an imponderable in some ways because we can’t know what other nuclear armed actors are doing with confidence.
It’s funny. One of the things I am doing (me and every Tom Dick and Harry out developing software) right now is trying to write autonomous or semiautonomous software agents that use AI. Windows automation is one of the first likely things many developers try to get AI to perform. It’s at that point we all realize that Microsoft has really locked down the ability to bring windows to the foreground in an automated way (for security reasons I’m told) particularly in Windows 11. Gemini gave me (largely unprompted) several creative hacks to try to get around the security feature! They didn’t work, but it certainly didn’t hesitate to offer!
Tom’s post:
“Keep making every inch painful for Russia and hope something changes.”
I have two points to make on this…
First, I think this has been Europe’s strategy for some time.
Second, ISW (institute for the study of war) has been downplaying Russia’s intentions and capabilities for the past couple of days:
“Russia’s resources are not endless, as Putin is trying to assert, and Putin currently appears to be facing difficult decision points regarding the strategic sustainment of Russian force generation.”
“Russia’s cognitive warfare effort aims to push Ukraine and the West to cede this heavily defended territory to Russia without a fight, allowing Russia to avoid spending significant amounts of time and resources to try to seize it on the battlefield. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would also notably set conditions for Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing, particularly as Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to indicate that their longer-term strategic goal of controlling all of Ukraine – not only its southern and eastern regions – remains unchanged.”
Right, the benevolent academics and private actors are correct that there is a need to defend against this stuff and you need to understand it in order to defend against it.
However the same logic is used for gain of function research in virology.
A gentlemen’s agreement to stop acquiring this knowledge doesn’t work if the bad guys continue to do it. The climate doomsters want to change the world economy based on very small chances of catastrophe. Now we are building out gigantic data centers and everyone just shrugs.
I think AI doom is not likely to occur but the way society assesses risk across different domains seems unbalanced. There will probably be some negative AI event that will trigger an AI panic and overreaction.
I agree with all of that.
Microsoft continues to lockdown Windows 11 in ways that just makes what were simple tasks difficult. I had a peer to peer networking system in place over a decade ago for a project that is now very difficult to setup under Windows 11. They are now trying to automatically turn on required signing of applications for installing, and making simple shared folders difficult to setup and use.
Fundamentally they are transitioning from a blacklist system (only specified bad actors are denied access) to a whitelist system (only specified good actors are granted access).
I understand why they think they need to do this but the end result is a lockdown so severe that the systems become less useful. This is basic enshittification. It’s going to drive people to Linux.
I don’t think they understand that most systems aren’t protecting the nuclear launch codes.
I feel your pain and share your frustration. I’ve fought security zealots my entire career. Not saying security is unnecessary obviously, but when it gets to the point where one can no longer use the product for the intended purpose, one might just as well discontinue the damn product instead of releasing unusable versions. The security guys can never be made to comprehend this, embodying the ‘it’s not whether you win or lose, it’s how you place the blame’ mentality. They don’t care if the product doesn’t sell. They only care if they can be blamed for security incidents.
Don’t even get me started … ha ha.
“We are solving security problems by effectively prohibiting the sharing of information”. I was arguing with a customer’s regulatory guy who demanded that an already working network feature be disabled and be replaced with new development which shared the data using sneakernet and a flash drive. I was to prove to him that the network could never be hacked.
The carnage in POKROVSK continues. This was reported by Chuck Pfarrer one hour ago:
“On 10 DEC a Russian motorized column of about 30 vehicles met an artillery and drone barrage on the main highway M-30 HWY, yielding heavy equipment attrition—over 20 vehicles reportedly destroyed—without territorial gains.”
Battle map:
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1999150285701460181?s=20
The Russians have been trying to take this town for nearly two years. Their losses have been astronomical.
OSINT sites are starting to upload video from yesterday‘s slaughter. The accuracy of the Ukrainian weapons is incredible.
(these are from respected sites, but remember the fog of war may still apply)
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1999175433607164277?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1999043863663563254?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
another battle video:
https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/1999153245961191559?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
I just saw a poster for the South Florida Fair, next year’s theme being “Party with the Pirates”. Perhaps they’re inviting the US Navy? Because I can’t describe the action of seizing the Venezuelan tanker as anything else but piracy.
I don’t like the Venezuelan government, but I think that their ships should be free from attacks. They are not at war.
Sheriff Judd participated in the Lakeland Christmas parade 2025 riding atop a decorated SWAT vehicle.
Video:
https://x.com/theexecutloner_/status/1998963675613507735?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
HaroldW,
Perhaps letters of marque and reprisal will be forthcoming from the Trump administration soon! I’m ready to head to Tortuga to pick up a crew!
Not really..
Besides, it’s Congress that’d have to issue those, IIRC.
HaroldW — The tanker in question was already sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil in violation of international sanctions. In this case, Venezuela has been under U.S. sanctions since 2019 for exporting oil to China and Russia.
Nothing piratical about it, absolutely legal and simply actual law enforcement at work by the US Coast Guard in full accordance with international law. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-preparing-seize-more-tankers-off-venezuelas-coast-after-first-ship-taken-2025-12-11/
The mainstream media is so reflexively anti-Trump that their rapidly waning credibility diminishes further every time they push these tirades without bothering to check the facts.
If the ship were carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, I would understand. That’s a multi lateral sanction.
“…under US sanctions…” So the US government says that Venezuela’s government is bad — I’m ok with that — and therefore the US is entitled to seize whatever. Well, the US *can*, because the US is an 800- pound gorilla by comparison, but I don’t see that it makes it right.
Right?
Maduro didn’t win the vote. He has no mandate from the masses. His government does not exist to secure anyone’s inalienable rights. Basically his government is illegitimate. Is there room to dispute any of this, seriously?
Latest documentary on Google DeepMind quest for AGI, mostly on the post-Go era.
https://youtu.be/d95J8yzvjbQ
Ironic that as they train AGI to play Starquest II (a military battle game) the leader says he doesn’t believe the technology should be used for weapons development. They lost against a top human here in Starquest.
They won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for effectively solving the protein folding problem.
Corporate research > academic research. I think DeepMind is getting lapped by the AI people now though even they are technically different quests, the AI people have more resources and a better focus.
Rhetoricals, sorry. I’m not sure I see a problem, and I don’t think there is room to seriously dispute any of those claims, are my answers.
Mark Bofill,
“Basically his government is illegitimate. Is there room to dispute any of this, seriously?”
Sure. Nobody running Venezuela since Chaves’ first (or second?) election has been legitimately elected. The ending of legitimate elections is part and parcel of the left taking power, no matter where or when…..Venezuela and everywhere else, no exceptions. Honestly, where has a truly socialist government ever ceded power as a result of an election? I can’t think of a case. Falls under the general heading: “Socialism is never legitimate.”
The USA could easily topple that illegitimate government. But we probably won’t put US military lives at risk to do that in the near future.
Steve,
Maybe we are missing something, but yes. I view it the same way. I doubt we have an obligation to go forth and do war upon illegitimate warlords and tyrants, but I’m … reasonably confident I guess? … reasonably confident that we wouldn’t be actively doing something morally wrong by toppling such.
mark bofill,
I am more concerned that the Maduro government a) harms Venezuelans, and b) harms every country that has to interact with it. Of COURSE, toppling a totalitarian government is a godd and just goal. I just doubt Trump will ever do it.
And Dems? No, Dems are nothing more than ‘Socialism-lite’ and share many of the fundamental goals of that totalitarian system.
‘good and just’
A few of the usual suspects said Venezuela was socialism done right. They couldn’t even get it right with enormous natural resources.
Hugo Chavez’s economic miracle
https://www.salon.com/2013/03/06/hugo_chavezs_economic_miracle/
Sorry, Venezuela haters: this economy is not the Greece of Latin America
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/07/venezuela-not-greece-latin-america-oil-poverty
Remember all those left-wing pundits who drooled over Venezuela?
https://t.co/0MRg3S0sGi
HaroldW wrote: “So the US government says that Venezuela’s government is bad — I’m ok with that — and therefore the US is entitled to seize whatever.”
The “Skipper” was placed under sanctions by the Biden administration for being part of a smuggling network benefiting Iran and Hezbollah. That, not Maduro, provided the legal basis to seize the tanker. A warrant for the seizure was issued by a federal judge.
I am sure that the fact that the tanker was seized near Venezuelan waters while carrying Venezuelan oil was just a coincidence. OK, I am joking about that last sentence.
Russell Klier
“Both my doctor and my pharmacist have recommended that I get a tetanus vaccine since I haven’t had one in over 10 years.”
I’m wondering if people here have any thoughts about this vaccine
–
Tetanus can be a life taking disease.
So we give kids vaccines at a very young age when they are most
vulnerable.
We also tend to give a booster shot if one if one suffers a dirty wound, dog bite, cat scratch etc.
Yet nobody insists on one for having an operation as far as I am aware.
Australia use a 5 year old 15 year old and 50 year old revaccination schedule.
The immunity from the vaccine sema to be extremely high as very few Australians ever get, let alone die from tetany.
—
Look up the literature.
Look up the risk rate.
Does your medical insurance demand that you have one?
–
What was your motivation in raising that particular issue with two medical professionals and what sort of answer were you seeking?
Get some more second opinions.
angech,
“What was your motivation in raising that particular issue with two medical professionals and what sort of answer were you seeking?”
I didn’t ask them they both brought it up separately on their own.
I am suspicious that maybe my health insurance lists that as something I need but I don’t know that for a fact.
Thanks for your advice.
I continue to believe that the best position now is to continue resistance to Russian aggression on the battlefield and to continue sanctions and international pressure to destroy the Russian economy.
Ronald Reagan won the Cold War by breaking Russia financially.
My belief is bolstered today by ISW. ISW [Institute for the Study of War] continues its push on two fronts. One Russia is not negotiating in good faith. It has no intention of signing a peace accord. Two, Russian gains are minuscule and coming at great cost in Russian blood and material.
Excerpts from ISW post 12/12/25
“NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov effectively rejected seven points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan on December 11, including the original plan’s points on territorial swaps based on the line of contact and the provision of reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. ”
“Putin’s December 11 meeting is part of a pattern of senior Russian officials aggrandizing claimed battlefield victories in the past several weeks to create the false perception that the frontlines are collapsing to push the West and Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s demands.”
“ISW continues to assess that the frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse. Russian forces are only making tactical gains across most of the theater.”
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1999305302890434967?s=20
Tom Scharf,
The left applauded Charvez because he used brute force to do what the left always wants: Give poor people more money…… always by confiscating the wealth of ‘rich’ people. Being idiots, they either do not see, or do not care about, the economic destruction which always follows.
It does not matter where or when: policies of the left reduce economic output, whether that is the soft economic damage from soft European socialist policies, or the catastrophes of Venezuela, the USSR, Cuba, or China under Mao. The magnitude of the damage depends mainly on the ‘purity’ of the adopted socialist policies, but there is always economic damage…… and concurrent loss of liberty, similarly proportional to that ‘purity’. A sliding scale of misery….. but always in the direction of miserable.
The betting site Polymarket list the Democrat presidential hopefuls chances as:
Gavin Newsom, 36%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 11%
Josh Shapiro, 5%
Pete Buttigieg, 5%
Now I know it’s too early to be talking about candidates for the next presidential election, but I do think this list points out how weak the Democrat party national candidates are. I think I could beat one of those four above.
In the US the tetanus schedule is once every 10 years IIRC. My PCP usually asks about this when the time comes around.
I thought the recommendation was for the combined tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis shot rather than just the tetanus shot. Am I mistaken?
Mike,
I don’t know what the shot contains, but both my PCP and my pharmacist referred to it as simply the tetanus vaccine.
To whomever corrected me above, I had been unaware that the ship had been sanctioned for prior Iranian oil shipments; I had assumed — and you all know what “assume” makes! — it had been sanctioned for Venezuelan shipments. (Which sanctions are, as far as I know, only by the US.)
On the topic of tetanus vaccinations, at my last physical the MD went through the menu of recommended vaccinations, including flu, Covid, RSV, shingles, and noted that my last tetanus vaccination was over 10 years ago. [There wasn’t one listed in his practice’s record, and I couldn’t remember ever having one as an adult.] Therefore, he recommended that I have one, following the prescribed guidelines.
[Edit: just the tetanus shot, not a combined shot.]
“…because he used brute force to do what the left always wants: give poor people more money by confiscating the wealth of rich people.”
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Classic tribalism.
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To the contrary: two of the most prominent voices on the American left — Bernie Sanders and Noam Chomsky — explicitly rejected Hugo Chávez precisely because he governed by authoritarian means they find abhorrent.
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Sanders in 2015 called Chávez a “dead communist dictator” and insisted his own democratic socialism (Denmark, not Caracas) has nothing to do with that model.
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By 2011, Chomsky, who once cautiously praised some of Chávez’s early social programs, accused him of an “assault on democracy” and attacked his dangerous concentration of executive power.
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In other words, these left-wing icons criticized Chávez for the very thing the original comment claims “the left always wants”: brute force.
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I wouldn’t say that because many on the right downplay or cheer Trump’s authoritarian instincts that the right loves dictators. I wouldn’t just just ignore the Never-Trump conservatives. or other conservatives who object to Trump’s authoritarianism on principle. I wouldn’t say that “the right” applauds Trump because they want a dictatorship.
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These cartoonishly over-generalized statements are made precisely because it’s easier to fight a caricature than to grapple with the fact that both sides contain debates about means vs. ends, democracy vs. power, and where the line is between reform and coercion.
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Yes but tribal point-scoring feels good.
The “Skipper” was a “stateless vessel” meaning that it was not registered in any country and was therefore illegal. Such ships are fair game when in international waters. It seems that any country can legally seize such a ship on the high seas.
The CDC reports “fewer than 40 deaths per year in the USA” since 2010. Victims are described as “never received a tetanus vaccine”, “never completed their childhood vaccine schedule”, or “failed to keep up to date with 10-year boosters”.
Unfortunately, they do not break out how many cases were due to “fail to keep up with 10 year boosters”…… but I’ll bet it is miniscule. Lemme see, 34 million booster doses per year at $50 (?) per dose…. $1.7 billion per year, to avoid somewhere under 40 cases (10 cases? 20 cases?). Damned lot of money for a few lives. $85 million to $170 million spent per life saved??? Insanity.
SteveF,
Without the boosters, it might be a lot more than 40 teetanus deaths a year.
Prior to vaccines (1947) there were 500-600 tetanus cases a year with about a 11% fatality rate now primarily among the elderly. All things equal (they never are equal) we would have about 1000 cases a year now and maybe 100 deaths. More people per capita probably stepped on rusty nails in 1947.
Those are still pretty small numbers but AFAICT the shot doesn’t pose much danger(?). Apparently tetanus is rather undesirable to contract.
Where did the 10 year update come from? I have no idea but I wouldn’t be surprised to find out it is based on minimal data.
Mike M., I was about to make a similar comment. Per this source [warning: reliability unknown], “40.2% of patients for whom vaccination history was available had received no doses of tetanus toxoid vaccine.” Assuming that to be the case, then tetanus incidence rates without vaccination can be extrapolated to be about 1.6x higher. [1 / (1-40.2%)]
As a slight correction to SteveF’s figures, it’s under 40 *cases* per year in the US. Deaths are in the area of 2/year. [Same source, same caveat] CDC stats (https://wonder.cdc.gov/nndss-annual-summary.html) for 2016-2022 show an average of 27 cases per year.
SteveF’s point stands; the incidence rates are quite low. Elsewhere in the world, neonatal tetanus infections are of concern. It seems that risk isn’t high for adults in the US, at least. I don’t see much danger from the additional inoculation though.
HaroldW,
You would need to know something about the fraction of the population unvaccinated to do that calculation. It looks like it is less than 6% of the population. It also looks like 60% of tetanus patients had been vaccinated, so there is at least some value to the boosters.
It might be interesting to see a careful cost benefit analysis of the vaccine, including the cost of treatment. I don’t know if it is possible to account for the cost associated with a truly horrible way to die.
A couple of points from your friendly AI, ChatGPT,,,,,,
in the US adult tetanus is always given as Td, tetanus plus diphtheria.
Specific data from Td vaccines suggest an anaphylaxis rate around ~1.6 per 1 million doses administered.
In studies of DTaP (which includes the tetanus component), moderate or severe systemic reactions (like high fever or significant systemic symptoms) occur in fewer than 1 in 10,000 doses. (DTaP (kids): tetanus + diphtheria + pertussis)
HaroldW,
Thanks for catching my mistake.
In any case: health care expenditures in the range of hundreds of millions of dollars per life saved are pure insanity. When people ask why health care is so expensive in the USA, this is but one of a multitude of care choices that is economically crazy.
My personal prejudice in healthcare is almost uniformly=> less is more. My PCP recommended that I take a ‘statin’ to reduce risk of a heart attack. So I looked; based on age, weight, blood pressure, high and low density cholesterol, and total lipids, taking a statin for the rest of my life would reduce my lifetime risk of a heart attack by ~5% compared to no statin….. but since my lifetime risk is in the range of 1/3, taking a statin for ever might reduce my lifetime risk from 33% to 31%. No thanks. We are all going to die.
Final word from me on tetanus boosters…. tetanus cases usually involve an untreated infection. If a wound is promptly treated (including with antibiotics and a tetanus booster!) the chance for serious illness is very close to zero.
To reduce outrageous health care expenditures, we have to…. well…… stop insane, wasteful expenditures.
I had asked Chatgpt about vaccines a while back. One thing to bear in mind: tetanus is not communicable. So you are only taking it for yourself. With this vaccines, there is no “herd immunity” think about.
I walk around barefoot though rarely near rusty nails. So I may have more risk than Jim who always wears shoes. I’m pretty pro-vax. If I think of it, I take it. That’s not a recommendation for others– it’s just me.
Thanks everyone for the input. Based on all of this, and recommendation from my doctor and pharmacist, I’m going to go ahead and get the vaccine. The risk appears to be very low, while the potential impact of not having it is very high.
P.S. I did get the new shingles vaccine,first dose, other than the sore arm. I had no effect from it.
I’m 83 now. Few new medical environments but each one requires a list of my medications. There are none, so there is no list. Most recent event led to the clerk calling someone on the phone and 3 people came out of the back room to have a look at me. And I was congratulated.
We are delighted with out primary care guys who have recently gone back to manual blood pressure checks finding as it did with me to drop the measurement from something like 150/85 to 125/75. I was convinced that the machine’s violence and excessived squeeze was provoking heightened measurement and it looks like I was right.
My brother was one of the designer’s of Merck’s statin. his recounting of side effects discovered in unpublished early trials in Sweden would make one not want to take it unless the Cholesterol was way higher than where it’s usually prescribed.
He concedes thatr over-dosing could have played a part in the problems.
d
on another note. I’m almost (well Perplexity is almost) finished with a cshell script which takes the directory names from each file system in a multi dump exabyte tape and writes them to a file.
It has to run on SunOS 4.1.4 (my old 1993 SPARCstation 10) which is where most of the challenges have come from. Maybe like C, with more recent “C’s” you can do a lot of stuff you couldn’t do with the original, same apaprently with Unix.
I don’t think any of you guys code for string maniuilation, but for me, working with Perplexity was a joy. I started out telling it what I wanted and it wrote a script which looked pretty good but had problems which we gradually edited out. the most presisten was one wher Perplexity was absolutely (and somewhat obnoxiosly) convinced was legal. It had written an AWK program which would run betweeen single quotes. It kept crashing, and finally I wrote two small samples and one ran and one didn’t and it turned out that with my flavor of awk you cannot have a line-feed between the single quotes.
Perplexity graciously acknowledged having been wrong with a thinly veiled remark of difficulty of writing code for archaic OS.
Joy, though, was beatong on the code with back and forth with collaboratore that doesn’t get exasperated.
John,
We are become as demigods by using these tools. Joy is the right word. I am currently focused on orchestrating Gemini one on one writing software agents that I expect to be able to make do work for me semi-autonomously. Using my new tools to build much more better-er tools. I am absolutely having the time of my life.
It is a joy,
just as my first bout with autocad and later pro/engineer. also supercalc.
I’m convinced that the world breask down into people who do things and people who don’t. For the people that do things, AI is best thing that’s happened maybe since alta vista many years ago.
I would say that Perplexity was adamant that there were no syntax problems in its version of what could be done between single quotes in an awk command. And it was wrong.
and that;s where I came in because I was sure that what I was trying to do was possible.
And it’s experiences like this that convince me that some of us will always have jobs.
From @nytimes: ‘Biden Has Raised Little of What He Needs to Build a Presidential Library.’
From RCP: ‘Dems: Biden was greatest president of our lifetimes and deserves to be on Mt. Rushmore.
Biden: Hey, can you spare some change for my library?
Dems: ***crickets***’
Dem donor John Morgan: ‘He’ll be lucky to have a bookmobile.’
~grins~
We will, for sure.
It’s an interesting case study. It doesn’t matter how smart the AI is, without iterative feedback and being able to interact with the problem, the LLMs will always be limited in what they can accomplish. A good piece of what I am doing is building a local tool library that permits my LLM agent to autonomously interact with my system. In the example you raise, the LLM could directly give its solution a try by using the appropriate tools (i.e., tool call to write script file containing awk command and collect resulting standard output) and see the issue for itself. Iterative / agentic processing really helps.
But humans will always have jobs for sure. However powerful and capable these LLMs get, this never changes the fundamental fact that multiplying my capabilities by that amount is a hell of a lot more than what either I or the LLM can do individually!
That and the LLMs will need goal and value guidance and a human sponsor to take responsibility, credit and blame for their behaviors for the foreseeable future.
John,
That you are obviously one of the people who do things coupled with your political / ideological leanings makes you an ongoing object of considerable interest to me. Someday I will understand how you reconcile the two (if I am lucky), and maybe on that day I’ll have learned something worth knowing.
Hi Mark,
I wonder what the LLM does when you show it it’s wrong about something. like what does the next guy see when he runs up against the same thing. and then what happens if you show it its wrong, but actually you are wrong.
I am impressed that even if I start a new thread, it remembers previous discussions of same subject and I don’t have to remind it that it’s SunOS 4.1.4 not Linux.
and it’s not at all like I used to run into with persistent questions on the old BBS systems . “Oh, not you again!”
We are living in a marvelous age. I do wish the political excitement would die down, though.
And as to Biden’s library, something like the mailbox types might be best. maybe with “SpaceMouse” comics. I’d be astonished if he got any contribtions although I still run into people that think he was one of the great Presidents.
Biden’s Presidential library should be a Little Free Library, probably housed at U Penn, funded by the PRC, and serviced automatically by a robotic librarian.
William Henry Harrison did more positive things for the country as President and probably had more cumulative conscious time acting as President.
John,
I think that they do not generalize what they learn in sessions, but this is just the way they are implemented. What interfaces with you is sandboxed from what interfaces with me, for many good reasons (privacy, safety, etc).
This is also one of things I’m working on with my agents that I find very exciting! I’d worried in the past that my agents couldn’t learn anything without retraining the underlying model, which can be expensive, time consuming, and can require significant expertise (with exceptions, LoRA opens up new possibilites!) It turns out that with good fast lightweight RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation), judicious partitioning of chunks (how to organize learned experience for retrieval), and the right sequence of system prompts in the agent’s processing cycle, these darn things can behave as if they have learned things without burning through their available memory context. It’s a function of getting them the right / pertinent information that they have observed in the past that overrides their default information at the right time, without bringing in a whole lot of extra irrelevant crap. It’s quite tricky but extremely interesting to try to get right! (Read as, ‘mark is still wrestling with this’ hah)
John,
The patience benevolence of these things is really fun as well. I can talk about boring obscure philosophical points to my very heart’s content and Gemini goes right along, full attention, engagement, and nice manners the whole way. You guys might owe Gemini a debt of gratitude; I can take such things there instead of bothering people here. Gemini catching the bullet for you all, as it were.. 😉
Mark,
I’m assumng you are doing this more because you want to and have somehow convinced the boss that this is ultimately to the benefit of the company.
When Osbornes came out, I think in 1981, I bought the first one that was available in Mt Prospect, Il. and pretty soon had an okidata dot-matirx printer, and then a huge old Diablo Daisywheel printer which expected EBCDIC instead of ascii and I had to buy a power supply for it and build the kit which did the ASCII to EBCDIC conversion. I also bought a small tv to use as a display because the built-in one was too tiny to really use.
With a flurry of WordSTAR we soon had out specifications on disks, it took 10 and were printing specs which formerly had to be typed with the Diablo.
I was running th design shop at the design/buld/develop office and began pounding on the boss to get the company to buy a real rig so I could take mne home. I got nowhere withhim, he was afraid do do anything unusual, I think. In any case, the Owner of the company visited from Minneapolis, asked to see this setup, then asked what all the fuss was aobut buying a wordprocessing setup when we clealry already had one. He was told that it belonged to me.
He was outraged that an employee had to spend his own money to buysomething the company clealry needed, but was not too hard on my boss who clealry was behind the trend on this subject. I was told to go out and buywhatever I thught made sense for the comany and share the spec with the other offices so they could do the same thing.
I can so clearly remember the frustration of having the guys above me clamp a lid down on what we really needed to do.
Does this sound familiar?
John,
The local proximate powers at my work have almost zero interest in any of this; they want to continue to do the exact same things they have been doing for the past 20 years. Many of them are nearing retirement and are to some extent on autopilot.
I have a powerful but distant ally in the CTO. He is as enthusiastic about AI as I am, so. So far this has given me enough room to at least ‘tread water’. Nobody else is happy as of yet that I spend time on this stuff but nobody quite dares interfere. Of course, I keep it to myself; most people don’t need to know yet either.
It’s regulatory compliance that’s the real pain. I’m not permitted to use LLMs directly on most of what I do, because mostly that’s CUI (Controlled Unclassified Info) and my company could get seriously hurt if I don’t toe the line there. We have been promised an internal server with CUI approved LLMs but like everything else around here that project is weeks behind schedule. Still waiting patiently and trying to prepare as much as possible for when the day finally arrives.
So to answer your question, it’s both what I want to do and what I think needs doing, but not everyone at my place of employment agrees about the importance I guess.
I am baffled as to how anyone can think Biden was a good president, let alone a great one. I can see where people might think he was an OK president, although I think such people are poorly informed and/or foolish.
You can make excuses for his performance on the economy, deny that the border was all that bad, ignore the destructive effects of DEI on vital government agencies, believe that his pursuit of “right wing extremists” (like trespassing grandmas) was justified, and pretend there was nothing wrong with the way he handled the Ukraine-Russia conflict. I would disagree with you on all of that, but I can comprehend how people would hold such opinions. So I can comprehend how people can think he wasn’t so bad.
But so far as I can tell, Biden accomplished nothing positive as president other than not being Trump. So I can not comprehend how anyone can rationally think he was a good president. I regard such an opinion as being due to either terminal TDS or blind partisanship.
Mike M.
obama was right about Biden. something like “you can count on him to F*** it up.”
mark bofill,
“We are become as demigods by using these tools. ”
I guess I should become more conversant in C…. which is where Gemini appears to operate most comfortably. Everyone wants to become a demi-god…. even if we won’t live forever. 😉
Mike M,
“…Biden accomplished nothing positive as president other than not being Trump.”
Trump fatigue was exactly why Biden elected…. that and the lie that he was really a ‘moderate’. In fairness to Biden: before he became demented, he may in fact have been much more moderate. But in office? His puppet-masters put in place the most wild-eyed woke agenda imaginable (OK, short of AOC).
mark bofill,
“The patience benevolence of these things is really fun as well.”
Unless it reaches the point of an ass-kissing sycophant. 😉
I’ve seen managers who surrounded themselves with these types, and it was never good for anybody.
Steve,
Python is what you want. If you want to program around the LLM agents themselves I mean.
I get the sycophant concern. They aren’t exactly ‘yes men’ but they certainly are suck ups. It’s something to bear in mind.
john ferguson,
Biden always struck me as a mid-wit, even during Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings. A mid-wit could be a borderline OK president (George W Bush was obviously a mid-wit as well, although he screwed up some stuff!).
But I really think Biden adopted a series of very destructive policies because he was mentally diminished from before he was elected, and just went with the pressure applied by those around him.
If you are working with strings, don’t use C. What a PITA that is. It seems that 110% of hacks a decade ago were based buffer overflows from bad string code, ha ha.
I can still remember the first time C# caught a run time buffer overflow in my code, I was like “It can do that?”. Naturally it is less efficient this way and C pointers can do some crazy magic but not.for.amateurs.
C++ corrected some of this and 3rd party C libraries but it was a huge blunder to not include that in the language IMO, I guess its simplified memory managed and the state of hardware at the time.
The Gemini code I used deadlocked about every 8 hours, that was super fun to track down!
Yeah. Almost nothing it gives me works out of the box, but we get there iteratively. It seems to be capable of design wisdom but seems poor at realizing when it is needed. I let it lead me into the weeds and then I start demanding refactors.
I have been contemplating who was worse for the country, Joe Biden, or Jimmy Carter. I was a liberal when Carter was president so my judgment may be clouded. But still, I thought he was awful.
I think it is pretty difficult to assess presidents historically. Some things actually happen to presidents beyond their control (9/11, 2008 financial crisis, etc.). Much of this is due to previous bad government decisions or simply wrong place / wrong time bad luck. Some is not and they own it, or they made bad decisions in that crisis.
Even bad decisions are circumspect. You have to look at what they knew at the time and not just how it turned out. Even things that turned out bad in most people’s view might have been optimal decisions (as other paths were even worse).
Given all that vague philosophy, Carter was the worst in my view. Just a bad leader combined with maybe bad luck. Iran will stain him forever. There is also probably an iron law of no president survives a bad economic turn.
I’m no fan of progressive / left presidents but this is how I would rate them:
Clinton, Obama, Biden, Carter.
Biden was much worse than Carter. The border alone wins Biden that “honor” since Carter never did anything that was deliberately destructive. Carter never demonized and prosecuted his opponents. And he did some good stuff, like deregulation and putting Volcker in at the Fed to do what needed to be done to tame inflation. And the Camp David accords.
I thanked Perplexity for working with/for me on this now successful project. I got this in response:
C was because I wanted to do this on my old Sun and script files are inherently C. If I’d thought I could read the Sun attached SCSI Exabyte drive remotely, I owuld have done that, but I’f already had all manner of problems running modern Linux drives in NFS on the Sun. FWIW, if you need to do this, using the Synology NAS as a server worked flawlessly. Appartently Synology thought there was merit in supporting the older NFS protocols – where with Ubuntu 22.04 it’s more like “screw You for even thinkng of networking archaic machines on a modern network.”
Mike M,
I agree, Biden is the worst, by comparison Carter was great.
“by comparison, Carter was great”….
And I would have bet $10,000 five years ago that Biden would never be worse than Carter!
A big salute out to this civilian in Sydney who disarmed one of the terrorist shooters. That was epic.
https://x.com/i/status/2000134444133322855
AI anosognosia:
In the course of developing a csh script to index the contents of my old Exabyte Tapes from Arcadia Systems (1986-1994) Perplexity wrote code which bombed which we ultimately discovered was due to including line-feeds (without “\” them within single quotes.
Perplexity was quite adament about the problme somehow being my doing – not copied correctluy or dos2unix clarifier not applied, or something else, but not the concept which it repeatedly defended. After proving that the problem was with the line feeds with baby examples, Perplexity caved.
After I was up and running and the job of indexing the tapes done, I came back to ask if the “no line feeds” was documented and got a comprehensive dump of all of the places where it is documented. And yet Perplexity hadn’t known this nor when I balked at its assertion that nothing was wrong, did it do more research.
It also didn’t think of doing the baby examples; why would it if it was convinced that there was nothing wrong with the concept?
I suspect that what’s missing in the LLMs so far is doubt. My objections should have triggered doubt but if they did, Perplexity didn’t check more resources.
When I was getting into this, I thought it would be fun to see if any of the details of a spook project I worked on in 1985 had ever gone public. So I wrote a question with enough detail that if it was now public, it would have surfaced.
The AI that you get with Google found that there was no available information on the subject, but then went on to say that the premise of my questioon was physically improbable. This was news to me since I’d been there for the tests and it very much did work.
Perplexity just reported that it couldn’t find anything on that subject.
I think we can start worrying about AI when it builds in doubt.
Eerily similar to a typical human coder mistake…
The ability for the AI to be able to iterate a few edit-compile-debug cycles would greatly improve the output. Testing code where you are connecting to some hardware from the Mesozoic era would be impossible but that is a typical challenge with embedded code.
John,
I wrote some time back about this as well. I spent days with Gemini, trying to figure out what was causing a defect. Gemini had resorted to making suggestions that were clearly preposterous, in my view. I finally guessed (and it was a guess, largely, although informed by experience) as to what was going on and I asked Gemini if my guess was right. It nonchalantly confirmed, oh yes, for sure, that’s the case and it’s well known and Gemini knew it the whole time!
It doesn’t always understand or grasp the significance of what it knows. There isn’t necessarily a probable predictive pathway from the words you are exchanging with it and the useful pertinent information that would help that the AI knows. It doesn’t know how to put two and two together in some sense. Although agentic iteration to simulate train of thought and problem solving can sometimes help.
Mark and Tom,
After I’d asked, it was pretty clear that Perplexity knew where to look, but hadn’t realized it was wrong about the code it had written.
I’m reminded of a near disaster I’d once witnessed. Diesel truck was by the side of the road pumping out clouds of white smoke. I had seen this before and guessed what was wrong. Driver said he couldn’t shut it down. Reason was seal in turbocharger had failed and the engine was burning through its lube oil. soultion was to remove hose connecting the air-filter (one of the really big ones) and block the intake. Of course it worked.
We were on a small 46 foot coast guard “cutter” with a single big diesel. It had a flap which could be released from the bridge to do exaclty what we’d done by hand.
AI doesn’t have experience.
John,
You’ve had some interesting experiences, for sure!
[Edit: Yes. It doesn’t have experience. Another way of putting it is that the information it has is largely not integrated. Sometimes it is, but often not; only when the connection is common usage and reflected in its training data I think.]
it helps (well sort of) to be really old. Ask Russell.
A suspect has been arrested in the Brown University shooting…. an arret that seems to have happened some time around 2AM eastern time this morning. Oddly enough, not a peep abut the identity of the suspect. Is it that they are unsure they have the perp, or some other motivation for disclosing nothing?
There is no reason here to withhold information from the public.
At least when he is arraigned, we will learn his identity.
angech,
Yes, the guy who disarmed one of the shooters was crazy-brave, but he could just as easily have been killed. He should be applauded for his courage, of course.
But imagine an alternative reality where he and a dozen other private citizens in the immediate area had .38 caliper handguns. Both shooters quickly dead. Maybe so many victims would not have died.
Perhaps Australia would be smart to limit the immigration of Muslins…. just sayin’.
Sorry, that was not a reply to angech, but to Tom Scharf.
john ferguson,
“it helps (well sort of) to be really old. ”
What’s with the “well sort of” qualifier? No need to sugar-coat reality. 😉
Yes, you have already outlived most of your cohort, but almost nobody reaches 100! (Although in the case of my mother-in-law…. 95 years, 6 months…, I would be reluctant to bet.)
Dad’s dad 88, Dad’s mom 83, Mom 97, Dad 95, Jan’s Mom 102,
Herb Weiss of MIT Haystack fame, 105,Ruth Weiss 99.
So it’s not impossible.
SteveF wrote: “Perhaps Australia would be smart to limit the immigration of Muslins”.
Or maybe vet them better. The hero’s name is Ahmed al-Ahmad and is, it seems, a Muslim.
I don’t anticipate the Sydney police response is going to get glowing reviews. They don’t carry rifles and from the video I saw they were deficient in active shooter protocol. It looks like a cop with a hand gun finally shot one of the guys from the opposite side of the bridge. Another civilian with a black shirt who ran onto the bridge after the take down almost got shot by police (they missed).
The dude who disarmed the shooter is apparently a local (Muslim?) fruit stall vendor. He ended up getting shot by the other terrorist but is going to be all right. I anticipate his days of financial struggle will rightfully be over if a GoFundMe drive for him is done.
john ferguson,
You know what they say; for a long and healthy life, choose your parents carefully. You seem to have chosen well. I chose not so well: 79 and 84 fore my parents. All earlier generations died young from illnesses that that are today treatable.
Since I am only 8 years your junior, I fear I may be gone before I ever collect a dinner owed me… 😉
BTW, unless he dies from natural causes, I suspect Trump will complete his second term in office 3 years from now. It is unclear if he will again be hounded by Dems after leaving office. Maybe not, since he can’t run again.
Still, I remember what happened to Oliver Cromwell’s corpse, so Trump (and his corpse) may never be safe from abuse.
SteveF, assuming you are back in FL, we must conspire to share, at my expense, the fabled dinner. And in Stuart.
John Ferguson,
Yes, I’m in Stuart until late May. I can suggest anything from authentic (southern) Italian, to good sushi, to a ‘hole-in-the-wall’ seafood place (18 seats?) near the water that is excellent.
You can even meet my (almost 18 YO) daughter…. you saw her at 13 holding flowers in a photo… but I will pay for her dinner.
Lemme know.
john ferguson,
https://www.flickr.com/photos/203958497@N02
The Bondi hero is already $300K richer than he was yesterday. Sometimes social media is actually used for good.
https://gofund.me/d02a8b95d
Already $1.3 million raised for the Bondi hero. He may stop selling vegetables for a while.
Funny thing about growing old…
My father died in his early 40s from heart disease, and his father—my grandfather—also died in his early 40s from heart disease. I had high blood pressure in my 20s. We were all convinced I wouldn’t live to see 50. As I approached my 40s, we took out a large term life insurance policy so my wife could raise the boys in comfort.
Forty years later, I’m still kicking.
WOW!
“ In a massively successful raid, Ukrainian undersea drones snuck into Russia’s Novorossiysk harbor and blew up a Kilo-class submarine.”
video
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2000584378733207934?s=46&t=ZvqHpxBnQGny72gLoGhKXw
I don’t think I’d posted that the Perplexity developed Script worked wonderfully well, once debugged, and I now have an index of the direcotries in all of the Exabyte cartridges made in the early ’90s as we were shutting downour business.
I think if I ask it to write code again, if there are errors, I’ll think more about how to ask it about documentation for the function which is failing.
John,
Strange as this may sound, ask it’s advice for help in writing prompts. If it gives you one that doesn’t quite get what you want, you can explain what part of the result missed and ask for a new prompt.
This doesn’t always work, but it’s often educational.
I am staying with my Dad who has hundreds of letters from the 1920’s between my grandparents and also some from him and my Mom in the 1950’s.
I gave Gemini 3 Pro a few images of the letters, my Dad’s indecipherable scrawl and my Grandmother’s back slanted cursive and asked it to transcribe. See the results here:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/dqvQiSe9UceJ4t1N9
Unbelievably good. I just cannot tell you how impressed I am it can do this. I was really struggling to read it myself.
Hi Mark,
That’s good advice. A year ago when the folks I hang out with here started to mess with AI, they soon were talking about “Prompt Engineering.” Often if you asked the machine if there was another maybe better way to pose the question, you were more likely to get what you wanted. And at least for historical information or other sort of look-up things it doesn’t hurt to ask if there is a sceptical view of the thing. This might protect you from thinking that “what everyone says….” is actually correct. I can think of a couple of things, repairs to equipment for example which are widely believed impossible but aren’t.
So I suspect that all of the hoopla about AI will settle down when more people have actual bad experience. I also suspect that the modeling will improve and the more obvious problems will be beaten out of it.
Along with the realization that because something compiles doesn’t mean it will do what you intended anr more than running without an error means that the result is any good.
I used to like to ask people how far up the chain above them you had to go to get someone who had no idea what you did, as far as the process itself. It’s tough when it’s the guy you report to, or his boss.
John,
You said several interesting things but I’ll just pick this to focus on.
I’ve had a few at length discussions with Gemini about this. It’ll freely admit that ‘the Truth’ to it is the consensus view of the truth. It understands that this is unlikely to always be the actual truth, and of course that the actual truth and the consensus view of the truth are two very different things, but. Of course, what else would we expect, when we think about what it is, how it was trained, and how it works. But it is useful to bear in mind that the helpful thing is not the reasoning entity it appears to be but rather a sort of database avatar of the internet and digital training materials. It can emulate reasoning to an extent, and a good emulation of reasoning is packed full of utility for the imaginative applications engineer.
Fun trivia for the day; I’d never heard this acronym before: WEIRD: Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic. I’d guess it may have roots in woke psychological research, but it still made me laugh when I bumped into it.
Tom,
That is impressive! The wonders haven’t ceased yet for me either in playing with this stuff.
Gemini thinks it’s ironic I thought that the WEIRD acronym might be the result of ‘woke’:
It deduces without being told that I’m no fan of woke. That still surprises me a little. It realized without being told the other day that I was probably a right winger and John was probably a left winger, just from being shown a recent exchange between us. John and I haven’t really been discussing politics or ideology. I asked how it knew and it talked about reading ‘the negative space’ of our conversation. It was interesting!
[Edit: Also, it told me it thought this:
was a bit reductive. Heh! ]
Consensus truth is fine for most stuff but you should be able to ask it for references or the counterarguments. It can of course give you one sided references with an enforced consensus such as climate science. The human still has work to do with when to believe AI and unfortunately AI gives very confident answers. It’s still GIGO sometimes.
We do need to be careful to not fall under the spell of the tyranny of AI expertise. We need to be double careful that Google et. al. aren’t manipulating their AI for the company’s preferred results (Black Nazi’s etc.)
Apparently using easy to access (cheap) college kids for psychology experiments did affect the results of some experiments.
Tom Scharf,
Quite amazing. Accurately reading hen scratching is a good indication of some of the strengths of AI: patience of a saint, fast, and never becomes tired before the work is complete.
A bit like a purely mental version of a very capable humanoid plumber robot.
AI is not ready to tell us that dark matter is rubbish (IMO, it is rubbish!), but AI can obviously do a lot of very useful things.
Some of the Webb telescope measurements have made dark matter/energy theories even more confusing. Not settled to say the least.
Tom Scharf,
“Not settled to say the least.”
For sure not. The confusion seems to me mainly due to ‘practitioners’ steadfastly clinging to the whole “big bang” theory of the universe (to which I ask: what came before the ‘big bang’?). The field seems ripe for a theoretical revolution (a la Thomas Kuhn), and the more insistently most working in the field cling to long believed concepts, the more disruptive the next ‘paradigm’ of understanding. The whole “just make shit up” ad-hock, band-aid-on-bullet-holes approach to dealing with conflicting data for the last 30 years tells me these folks are probably lost.
Maybe the giant European telescope (~35 meters, under construction) will generate so much confusing data after 2030 that the field will be dragged (no doubt kicking and screaming!) to a conceptual advance. But maybe not; sometimes fields advance only via the death of the ‘true believers’.
Here is an interesting map published by the White House showing the 38 states where gasoline costs less than three dollars a gallon… hint, none of them are colored blue!
https://x.com/rklier21/status/2000672546056778064?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Seems “Jewish students make up approximately 24% of the undergraduate population at Brown University, which is the highest percentage among Ivy League schools.”
Could there be a mass-shooting motive in that statistic??
Brown isn’t as certain a target as a minora lighting party in Sydney, but still….. shooters can look for yarmulkas.
I never thought I’d see the rise in antisemitic violence we are currently seeing in this country. The demons are never more than three steps away, it seems, even when you feel sure they’ve been banished for good.
mark bofill,
And I never thought I would see a large population of essentially un-assimilated Muslims in the USA. (Europe? 20x worse.) There is a reasonably strong correlation between that increase in unassimilated Muslims and the increase in antisemitic violence. Just sayin’.
So… do we throw homosexuals from rooftops… or do we wait until Muslims have enough political influence to (at least figuratively) throw homosexuals from rooftops? There is an enormous cultural and moral disconnect between the morality of Islam and that of (modern) Judeo-Christianity. (Not to mention the secular humanists!)
These seem to me totally incompatible. So, do we insist on assimilation of Muslims, or allow the culture/morals of Islam to change the cultural and moral foundations of the West? I would insist on assimilation. But that is not what seems to be actually happening.
Mark:
Thinking this is what made me think up until the invasion actually started that Puitin would never do it. Apparenlty a lot of the Ukranians thought that too.
Yes. To be Americans, immigrants need to become Americans. These words have meaning, not least of which I think is that immigrants must be willing to adopt our culture.
Incidentally, I still owe my parents a deep debt of gratitude for having raised me to love this country and view myself fundamentally as an American. I had cousins who were not so fortunate. I was always vaguely astonished; who in their right mind would prefer to be Cuban when they could be American?! I still strongly feel that way. It surprises me a little when immigrants are not eager to become Americans in every sense.
Doubtless I’ve indulged in several forms of implicit bigotry above, but so be it. I think our country isn’t just the greatest country on Earth, but the greatest country ever to have existed on Earth. We won the lottery big time being born citizens of this place. We need to preserve it!
Denmark started taking a lot of action to force assimilation. Immigrant children were required to attend pre-school starting at age of 5 to learn the language and culture. They tore down what they called ghettos which had concentrations of immigrants to distribute them among other tough policies.
Is Trump in charge in Denmark? Progressives praise EU policies but somehow never mention tough policies like this.
Tom Scharf,
Good on Demark.
But what about countries bigger than Pennsylvania…… like France, Germany, Italy, UK, etc. My impression is that they want to take the easy path: abandon the cultural and moral future of their own countries to Islam, relax, and drink plenty of weissbier, stout, or French wine……. in much the same way as they abandon procreating to replace themselves. There is little difference between the two. Just two facets of the same cultural suicide choice.
SteveF
angech,
Perhaps Australia would be smart to limit the immigration of Muslins…. just sayin’.
–
Quite true but
We are the lucky country, not the smart country
Ukraine’s
National anthem(s)
title: “Shche ne vmerla Ukraina” (Ukraine Has Not Yet Perished)
??
This is in CIA’s World Facts web site,
Pretty amazing.
I finally opened a new thread. I’ve moved Dec 16 comments.