I phoned Dad in Florida and told him the weatherman is forecasting snow. As usual, Dad reported he remains pleased with his decision to move to Sarasota, FL. He also told me he spent the day swimming.
I’m hoping the snow does not arrive, but the outlook does not look promising. Snow is falling on America’s Dairyland.
Hattip: Douggrell, who lives several hundred miles north of me and who tweeted “Hey wow, it looks like a good day, despite the freaking snow. Haven’t had one of those for a while.” I asked for details, and he reports “Yes, there were strong flurries this morning. Nothing stuck, but arrrgh!”
I’ll phone Dad tonight and tell him about the snow.
Of course, it’s weather, not climate. I hate the weather; the climate just annoys me.
Well.. this FIB will be happier if you keep your WI climate and/or weather up there in WI and don’t let it drift down into Illinois. Our weather is bad enough already.
please, whatever you do, don’t blow the cold east! the sun finally came out after two days of rain here in Pennsylvania (and it’s been chilly and cold all winter and spring!)
It’ll warm up soon…it’ll warm up soon… it’s April, it’ll warm up soon… hey, hypothermia isn’t so bad…
Lucia,
Where you and Douggerell live its supposed to be cold. Like in Quebec and Ontario, whre I used to live until I came to my senses and moved to British Columbia 20 years ago. Here, on the Gulf Islands [San Juan’s your side of the border] where we are supposedly in a “coastal mediterranean” climate zone, we had a dump of over a foot of the white stuff on April 22 last year……
This year, we have now finally had about 10 days or so without the temps going below 0C at night. “Coastal mediterranean”, climate zone maybe. “Coastal mediterranean” weather? Not so sure anymore…..
Lucia I wonder/curious when you are going to decide to “turn”. After all.. the data is getting a bit insidious/obvious. Have you checked NH Ice lately.. LOL
While you’re getting snow, we’re enjoying record heat here in SoCal. Yesterday tied the record for all-time highest temperature recorded in April for San Diego at 98. That’s 29 degrees above normal for this date.
Of course the cool down is coming. It hit a very pleasant 78 today but the forecast for the weekend is cooler with temps in the mid-60’s.
vg– We need a lot more and longer cooling data before I turn to the ‘cooler’ side.
Bill- It’s April. The temperature are swinging wildly. I just want our neighbors in Wisconsin to hold back those Canadian ice blasts.
tetris–
I hope you had the foresight to insulate and have heat! Beautiful as the San Juan Islands are, I won’t visit unless you keep the indoor temperatures comfy!
Lucia [12971]
Had the wood stove going until yesterday morning: on April 20, N.B.!
This “coastal mediterranean climate” zone is rapidly starting to look like a “coastal New England climate zone”…. Soon I’ll have to haul out our boats in winter and make my way across to our island over sea ice….
And please do let us know when you’re next in the neighbourhood and come for a visit.
🙂
Keep knitting! It looks like we’re in for a cold spell even if the long term (and by that I mean gt 30 yrs) trend is warming. Just look at the full Hadley data set and you can see we’re due to enter a pattern similar to the 40’s and late 19 century.
Reminds me of 1962. On April 16, Frank Lary pitched the Tigers home opener in 50 degree weather with clear skies. But then a cold front moved in and by the end of the game it was flurrying. Lary hit a triple, pulled a leg muscle, went out to pitch in Boston, went eight innings but had altered his pitching motion so hurt his arm. Never recovered. The Yankee killer literally was killed as a pitcher by the cold of a blustery day in 1962. Went from 23-9 to 2-6 and was out of the league. So, I hope BarryW is wrong.
vg,
give her a couple of years. When the polar bears start hunting seals on the Great Lakes…
tetris!
Here on Long Island Sound the sea hasn’t frozen since 1977! It was really nice two days ago and the fool daffodils actually started to bloom. The last two days haven’t been so good… but a darn sight better than Denver! Global warming. What’s to hate?
In the winter of 1962, the seas of the English Channel, a body of water with some of the most extreme tidal and wind conditions in the world, froze on and off for weeks. The ferries between Dover [UK] and Calais [France] were unable to operate.
It might be useful to bear in mind that according to data used by HadCru, GISS and by extension the IPCC, global temperatures during the 1960-70s were a mere 0.3C lower than today.
tetris that is indeed an interesting fact about the English Channel. thanks for sharing it!
Off topic, but this is as good a place as any: I finally read an article by Joe Romm. It was in Salon; “Don’t believe the fossil-fuel lies.” I thought the tone was hysterical and the arguments were not persuasive. I felt like he was shouting at me. I have a hard time believing that “McKinsey and IEA argue that by aggressively pushing energy efficiency, which Waxman and Obama do in their proposed climate legislation, the net cost to taxpayers is about one-tenth of a cent on the dollar.” I don’t have any figures to back up my feelings, but Idoubt ANY government program could be that effective (and I’m a Democrat).
And why does he seem to have such a problem with Roger Pielke Jr? I think he’s one of the most reasonable and balanced voices out there (along with Lucia, of course).
Sorry for the digression.
Douggrell–Posts on weather are always, by definition, open threads! How can the be otherwise. I agree that Joe Romm always seems to be shouting. I set my brain to “wearing earplugs” when reading his posts.
Further to my comment about the English Channel in the early 1960s, interesting things are happening at both Poles.
Both the Australian and British Antarctic Expeditions have now publicly stated that Antarctic sea ice and land ice mass have been increasing. The Australian findings were widely reported in the media down under and my understanding is that the British results are to be published within the next couple of weeks. This by the way, is yet another body of empirical data that runs counter to Steig, Mann, et.al. statistically derived numbers.
In the Arctic, US, Japanese, Danish and Norwegian data confirm that we are firmly into 1979-2000 average sea ice conditions, with the Norwegians showing that current ice conditions are in the 1STD of monthly sea ice for the 1979-2007 [NB not 2000] average. Temperatures in the Arctic continue to be very low.
Certainly interesting to follow as best available data increasingly runs against the models.
Looks like ARCTIC ice may now be starting to increase as well LOL
http://eva.nersc.no/vhost/arctic-roos.org/doc/observations/images/ssmi1_ice_area.png Its now within normal range SD 1 Lucia how about starting your betting game again. I don’t think you will get any Borises ect wanting to get involved this time round… BTW good to know your not a “serious” warmer as we are not serious “skeptics” LOL
vg (Comment#13008) April 22nd, 2009 at 9:52 pm ,
Don’t get too excited yet. The preliminary 4/22 JAXA data showed a difference of over 100,000 km2 from the day before. The final number to be posted in the morning will likely be somewhat smaller, but we are overdue for larger daily losses of extent. The average concentration has been dropping for about a week now, which is in line with the recent average rather than the longer term average. I expect the annual average to be similar to 2008 so that the trend in the AMSR data starting in mid 2002 should be smaller.
Since posts on weather are open threads, and the English Channel has come up, I’d like to bring up this:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227041.300-green-and-mean-the-downside-of-clean-energy.html
The UK goverment has plans to close of the mouth of the Severn, one of the finest estuaries left in Europe, in order to tap energy from the Severn’s tidal range. Mind you, that is called “green” policy.
I’d like to draw attention to this because in this debate it seems that the socalled “greens” are firmly on the AGW side. The other side are supposedly anti-green, calling the “greens” anything from treehuggers to enviro-nazi’s. The distinction does not hold. I consider myself an environmentalist as well as a “lukewarmer”.
Australia is also experienceing snow with NSW having its earliest snowfalls in more than a decade.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25388813-5006784,00.html
Andrew–Wow! Australians been sweltering.
This thread is reminding me of the new ‘Denial Depot’ site! –
http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/
tetris (Comment#12983) April 21st, 2009 at 11:18 pm
In the winter of 1962, the seas of the English Channel, a body of water with some of the most extreme tidal and wind conditions in the world, froze on and off for weeks. The ferries between Dover [UK] and Calais [France] were unable to operate.
You’ve stated this before, tetris, and I asked you then for a link to ‘back up’ the extraordinary claim. You didn’t respond. Care to come up with something this time?
I can assure you that the English Channel did not freeze over. in the winter of 62/63. It was certainly very cold, and some slush ice is reported in the Medway (a sheltered area completely apart from the English Channel). It’s possible that some ferries were cancelled in the extreme conditions, as were some trains, but not because the English Channel had frozen over! Also, btw, your assertion that the Channel has “some of the most extreme tidal and wind conditions in the world” is really quite bizarre.
Of course, the sceptical thing to do would be to check out such claims before repeating them, especially since I’ve challenged you on this before…
Simon Evans [13171]
I am sure that other like me are so pleased that you can assure readers here that the English Channel did not experience unusual ice conditions in 62-63 but that “it’s possible that some ferries were canceled in the extreme conditions”. We’ll be glad to take your word for it. Then again, maybe not. Why not consult some newspaper archives and put your mind at ease.
Along the same lines, have a look at the pictures posted on WUWT last week of the US submarine Skate photographed at the North Pole in March, 1958, in open water. Not much ice to be seen. Contrast that to the claim by assorted alarmists that the Arctic summer melt in 2007 was “unprecedented”.
As for the wind and tidal conditions in the Channel, I suggest you try some sailing say off the Island of Wight with a 35 kt westerly blowing into a falling tide, and let us know how you like it. Then again, if your not into wearing oil skins, a cursory review of 250 years of Admiralty data will dispel any doubts you may have about where weather and sea conditions in the Channel fit in the scheme of things.
And Simon, cognitive dissonance brought on by confirmational bias, as currently experienced by a growing number of “alarmists/warmists” in the face of “uncooperative” data, is a good definition of real denial.
tetris,
No link to evidence, then? I thought not.
“Why not consult some newspaper archives and put your mind at ease”
Why not give a link to one such rather than trying to blag your way out of a completely false claim, which I have previously challenged you on?
Give your link to the article telling us that the English Channel was frozen over in 62/63 and I will apologise. Otherwise I (and others, no doubt), will presume that you are passing on made up stuff.
And Simon, cognitive dissonance brought on by confirmational bias, as currently experienced by a growing number of “alarmists/warmists†in the face of “uncooperative†data, is a good definition of real denial.
And blathering without being able to offer any evidence whatsoever of your bizarre assertions is a good indication of where you’re coming from.
tetris,
Incidentally –
As for the wind and tidal conditions in the Channel, I suggest you try some sailing say off the Island of Wight with a 35 kt westerly blowing into a falling tide, and let us know how you like it….
It’s the Isle of Wight! You couldn’t have made a more obvious exposure of the fact that you’re making stuff up if you’d tried.
I sail across the English Channel regularly, as a matter of fact – unlike you, my ‘experience’ is not invented on the back of a bit of googling.
Isle of Wight – got it? And the sea between the mainland and the Isle of Wight is the Solent, not the English Channel, ok? (For future reference).
As I said, much of this thread seems like deliberate satire. In fact, it’s just involuntary satire.
My bad. It’s the Isle of Wight; you’re so right.
I too, have a few miles under the keel in the Channel and assorted European waters [Med, North Sea, Baltic]. As to predominant weather conditions in the Channel, I’m sure that the high cut working jib known as a “Solent” was called that in tribute to the predominantly light air found in the area. The one on my boat was designed for working to windward in 30 kts+.
No comments on the Arctic submarine pictures I linked you to. In your book, that’s not evidence for anything, no doubt.
From Wikipedia:
So if one were sailing anywhere but to the north of the Isle of Wight, wouldn’t one be in the English Channel? It’s also seems rather a stretch to call a strip of water 6 to 8 km wide that was a river valley during the last glaciation a sea. Just asking.
Well… I was in El Salvador in ’63-63. I can report the Pacific was not frozen. My only experience of The English Chanel was crossing after an earthquake during the winter of…. 1980? Something like that. (It was a mild earthquake but ferries were temporarily interrupted and the water was quite choppy.)
Tetris,
Oddly enough, the submarine picture is not evidence of much other than thin summer ice at the north pole. Lets make a analogy: a surface station photo is to the GISS temperature record like a picture of a sub surfacing at the north pole is to arctic sea ice extent.
To follow up, 1962-1963 arctic sea ice was low but does not look too unusual compared to more recent lows: http://nsidc.org/sotc/images/mean_anomaly_1953-2008.gif
Granted, this is an estimate using data from shipping records and ice charts from several countries, but I’d argue that these are a more accurate way to assess sea ice extent than the thickness of the ice at a single location in the arctic.
DeWitt Payne [13176]
Simon is right in that that particular stretch of water is known as the Solent. But [as so often] he gets lost in the details and undermines his own argument because he needs to be right. If anything, conditions in the Solent can be way, way worse than in the Channel itself.
As to my original contention that the English Channel has some of the most extreme wind and tide conditions on earth, talk to the local fishermen in a pub on the UK side or a cafe in Normandy and Brittany [where my parents live] and you’ll quickly get the picture.
Zeke [13178]
Pls don’t skate [bad pun, I know..]. That picture was taken in MARCH! . Not the summer.
In 2007, Gore and the Team and assorted associates trumpeted out the AGW scare mongering message that the summer melt that year was a] “unprecedented”[sic] and b] proof positive of a rapidly melting Arctic.
Mark Serreze at the NIDC continues this BS unabated, again telling the MSM that we can expect an ice free North Pole this year. Well, the sub pictures tell us that there was an ice free North Pole in March, 1958 and little or no ice some of the other years. I’m sure that as usual some of the media will continue to propagate the Serezze hogwash. Meanwhile as of yesterday there was 13,180,625 sq km or 5,069,471 sq miles of ice in the Arctic. That is 1.5 times Canada’s land mass and within 1 STD of the 1979-2007 average. And according to a press release from a joint German, Canadian, US and Italian airborne survey yesterday, the ice appears to be 200% thicker than anticipated. Or should that be: “forecast by the models”?
Tetris,
As far as we know, the summer 2007 melt was unprecedented in the record available (e.g. since 1979, or since 1950 using observational data).
An ice free north pole doesn’t mean much either way; the relevant statistics are arctic sea ice extent and area.
Also, does this mean you might be willing to take up my bet regarding sea ice being at least the 3rd lowest on record this year? :-p
tetris (Comment#13175)
Still no link to support your claim of the English Channel icing over in 62/63? Come on – why not earn a little respect back and admit that you don’t have the evidence, since it is a blog fantasy?
62/63 was indeed a cold year. The only reason to exaggerate the impact of that is….. well, you tell me. There was slush ice in the sea this last winter, for goodness sake – there always will be when it gets cold!
DeWitt Payne (Comment#13176)
That’s right, the Solent is the water between the IOW and the mainland. I was just letting tetris know that for future reference (we do think of it as sea, though not a sea).
The Channel is really not such a severe environment – hundreds of ferries plough across the thing every day. There are far more extreme tidal/wind areas around the UK, let alone the rest of the world.
This is a bit silly to discuss any further. The English Channel did not freeze over in 62/63, so I hope that tetris will stop reiterating this particular piece of nonsense.
tetris – No comments on the Arctic submarine pictures I linked you to. In your book, that’s not evidence for anything, no doubt.
What, you want me to address seriously a WUWT article? Sigh. Do you really think the North Pole is frozen over solid and thick in any summer season? If you do then I guess I must go for a “lost for words” response.
I did have a look at WUWT in response to your comment and saw there this thread –
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/27/another-inconvenient-tv-meteorologist/
– in which one Bill Steffen asserts that “The Antarctic icecap (which is much bigger than the Arctic icecap) has been growing.”
Icecap? The Arctic? And growing in the Antarctic? Followed by no less than 98 comments failing to point out that this ‘Chief Meteorologist’ is talking complete bollocks! You do know what an icecap is, don’t you? Why are you inviting me to waste my time looking at a site carrying such self-evident rubbish?
It’s actually totally bizarre that you can accuse me of ‘cognitive dissonance’ and yet read such stuff on WUWT without realising the ‘cognitive dissonance’ on your own part. And I do predict that you’re about to experience it again – yes, you’re about to try to figure out a way of arguing that Bill Steffen was not talking total crap and that it’s not a serious indictment of the WUWT readership that nobody had a clear enough brain to recognise that… It’s happening, yes?
Don’t talk to me about cognitive dissonance!
Zeke [13182]
I agree with you that an ice free north pole doesn’t mean much either way. What is galling is that the likes of Serreze hold it up as proof of warming. That is BS. NASA among others last year argued that the 2007 summer melt was caused largely by ice being blown out of the Arctic into warmer waters and not because of warmer air. This makes good sense given that sea ice has 85% of its volume under water.
As far as your bet is concerned, I’m sure you’ve had a look at the JAXA satellite and the Nansen data. There will have to be a very significant reduction in ice extent relative to 2007 and 2008 for your prediction to hold.
Simon and Tetris–
Calm down. If necessary, ignore each other.
As far as I can tell, there is no evidence the English Channel froze over in 62-63. (I didn’t check, but tetris did not support this claim. I’m not going to use my google-fu on this one. So…)
The north pole periodically has open water and this is not new. Whether or not the holes back in the… 60’s (?) means anything depends on whether or not anyone has been making hay out of recent holes in the ice at the north pole and/or whether or not anyone claimed the north pole never used to exhibit such holes.
lucia.
You have forgotten me so soon, and now I am just a random ‘Kevin’ to you.
Ah well, I am wounded and shall retire 😉
Simon [13183]
Boy oh boy! Getting a little hot under collar, are we? So you don’t like WUWT and now you don’t like The Blackboard anymore either. How about CA? Or Icecap or both the Pielkes sites for that matter? Given your postings here, not your cup of tea, I would think.
Cognitive dissonance occurs when facts and observations are out of sync with or no longer support one’s belief system. As you write: “there was slush ice in the sea, for goodness sake -there always will be when it gets cold”. Right there is the core of your problem: the UK Met Office and their friends at the CRU/East Anglia have for years been telling everyone and his dog that it is getting warmer. much warmer and will continue to do at an increasing rate unless we all stop using hydrocarbon fuels right now. Problem is, the CRU models may say so, but the data don’t. The great unwashed are rapidly catching on to this reality, and the more ardent AGW/ACC believers amongst them are experiencing various degrees of cognitive dissonance as a result. Many fight the feeling by falling into the trap of confirmational bias, where see only what you want to see, believe only what you want to believe, a bit like religion. Most of us learn to live with the disappointment, a bit like when we were told that the Easter Bunny doesn’t really exist and that babies aren’t delivered by storks.
Maybe you should have another look at the various trend analyses that our host has posted here. The trends are at odds with the models: the data is at odds with the “belief system” as it were, but fortunately for them neither trends nor data are known to suffer from cognitive dissonance.
Shoot! Sorry Simon. I was writing a blog post and attaching an excel spreadsheet for KevinUK. . . I’ll go fix. {blush}
tetris,
So you don’t like WUWT
No, I do like WUWT – it’s very good entertainment. It’s just that it’s a standing joke (as I illustrated by example, which you choose to avoid commenting upon! That rather extends the joke, which is what I like so much about WUWT).
and now you don’t like The Blackboard
Yes I do – I think you misunderstand my sense of humour. I was just complaining about Lucia calling me ‘Kevin’ (with apologies to any Kevins).
How about CA?
Occasionally valuable, though generally up its own b, IMV.
Or Icecap
Are you really being serious? This is the sort of site that ‘Denial Depot’ can’t hope to satirise. How can one satirise something that is already so distorted?
or both the Pielkes sites for that matter?
Sr is usually of value, Jr is usually of value to Jr.
Yada yada……
Maybe you should have another look at the various trend analyses that our host has posted here. The trends are at odds with the models….
You telling me? I’ve posted my unsophisticated views before that the models most likely have their inputs wrong. What are you trying to convince me of? In the meantime, don’t let your own faith be in question to the extent of being able to spot obvious bullshit.
On a completely unrelated note, the new Meinshausen paper has a rather spiffy (albeit feindishly dense) figure on climate sensitivity:
http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j237/hausfath/Picture53.png
Zeke — the graph is pretty but what does it mean?
Simon [13189]
By way of example, I suggest you take a look at the following: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article810063.ece .
Quote: “Sea water froze along coastlines, harbours were iced over and ice floes bobbed down the English Channel”. In my original comment I stated that the English Channel froze, not froze over, as you seem to have chosen to read it. Big difference. With neither Greenland nor Svalbard are anywhere near to provide drift ice, it follows that sea water in the Channel froze. For weeks on end in fact. I don’t know how old you are and don’t particularly care to know, but I lived in Holland at that time and remember witnessing this type of scene from the beaches outside the Hague with a lot of other very astonished people.
And I might add, I don’t think I misunderstand your sense of humour at all, if sense of humour it is. You do come across, however, as a seriously haughty fellow. I hope for your sake that you have what it takes to back up that attitude outside the blogosphere. Conversation finis.
Simon [13189]
PS: since you appear to like to “enculer les mouches” [as by your own account you sail across the English Channel regularly, I trust your understanding of the French language is up to snuff] pls note that in my previous posting it should read The Hague and not the Hague. Herewith, my apologies for the typo.
Tetris,
Perhaps this will give some support to your contention about frozen seas.
“January was the month when even the sea froze (out to half a mile from the shore at Herne Bay), the Thames froze right across in places, and ice floes appeared on the river at Tower Bridge.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/anniversary/winter1962-63.html
Then there is this article that hints at something unusual.
“The Navy managed to keep Chatham dockyard open by using an icebreaker but the other London docks remained closed with ice floes and mini icebergs on the river.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/content/articles/2008/09/04/bigfreeze63_feature.shtml
I sure hope things don´t go back to that kind of weather. Personally, I have taken out an insurance policy by moving south to the shores of the Mediterranean.
tetris,
Ah, so we started with
In the winter of 1962, the seas of the English Channel, a body of water with some of the most extreme tidal and wind conditions in the world, froze on and off for weeks. The ferries between Dover [UK] and Calais [France] were unable to operate.
and now we have
“Sea water froze along coastlines, harbours were iced over and ice floes bobbed down the English Channelâ€
Glad we’ve cleared that up.
Tetris–
I was an exchange student in college. I studied engineering. My spoken French is ok; my written French is atrocious.
Well, I’m glad we’ve cleared up the frozen channel issue. We all agree, the channel did not freeze sufficiently to permit the English and French to have fishing parties similar to those in North Dakota
Yes. All those people are standing on a frozen lake catching fish.
Lucia [13217]
Thx for wrapping that up so diplomatically.
Simon [13213]
Et toi, comme les mouches…
tetris–
There’s nothing quite like ice fishing. . . (My husbands two brothers LOVE icefishing. I don’t get it. . . They own a hut and drive to various ice fishing destinations. They keep trying to convince us to go halve-sies on a cabin in someplace on Lake Superior. We keep trying to convince them that halvsies on a boat house in Florida would be nicer.
Lucia,
The house boat in FL definitely sounds like the way to go… and your husband and his brother can fish off the side of the boat.
tetris–
That’s the plan! It’s his two brothers, but they are twins. That’s probably why you confused them for one person. 🙂