It’s not to late to revise your bets for September’s UAH TLT reading. I know each of you have your own betting method, but I always watch the Channel 5 AMSU. Either that satellite drifted into “hot” territory or September is looking scorching hot. Here’s my version of the graphic; the daily temperature are baselined using the posted “20 year average”.
Time to wager some Quatloos!You can enter until sometime late on Sunday September 20.
Results older than 2 months are not displayed avoid taking my site down.
Frequently asked questions:
- What’s a Quatloo? A quatloo is a monetary unit on the planet Triskelion.
- Can I change my bet? Yes. Just enter a new bet. The program will count your final bet.
- Could the script used for betting be screwed up? Yes. If it’s pretty new and not entirely debugged. Let me know if anything goes wrong.
- Will the script used for betting be improved over time? Yes. Sometime. When I’m not arguing about The Second Law of Thermodynamic
Now, temp will drop down to 0.23 again, and after an adjustment become 0.39 for this month. I’m a conservative, and I don’t think I shall change a good number too much. After all we may have to deal with some kind of lukewarmer number fiddling conspiracy. I’m after all a suspicious sceptic! :-]
If the September UAH anomaly does end up very high it will be fun to see how it gets spun. The September UAH record is “only” 0.43 so at this point it appears there is a good chance of this record getting beat. Looking further into the future…
October and November UAH anomaly “records” are also relatively low (0.394 and 0.40, respectively) because they happened to avoid the largest impacts from the 1997/98 El Nino.
Wow, quite the range this month.
Zeke–
It looks like a drunk driver is at the help of the satellite flying it up and down into colder and hotter territory, doesn’t it?
And again my bet wasn’t accepted. ๐
Hmm, maybe I did enter it as 0,289 (as is the common way to write it here in Germany) and not 0.289.
Joel–
I’ll enter it for you. ๐
I’ll check the comma issue. That probably is a problem because MYSQL wants to see 0.289 not 0,289.
Well, thanks. The most probable cause for any given computer problem is the one sitting in front of the display..
Joel–
Well… unless the user is entering numbers into a script written so that we can all play a game betting about TLT temperatures! ๐
Lucia-
Who said I meant the one placing a bet and not the one writing the script? ๐
Ah, too late again. 0.53C is my guess based on nothing, no quatloos for me.
Lucia: What am I doing wrong? I click on Ch 5 and on degrees Celcius but the chart comes up with Celcius as the y-axis label but the graph is still in Farenheit as is the temperature difference.
TIA Jack
jack mosevich,
Put in celsius before you select the channel. Or, if you select the channel first, press the redraw button after you select celsisus. I hope that works for you.
(and imo farenheit should simply be banned from use, nonsensical scale that it is … ๐ )
David–
Farenheit isn’t nonsensical. It’s all the other units like ft, inches, BTUs that are the problem. Otherwise, we could have a perfectly reasonable system with Farenheight and Rankine for absolute.
I always do all problems in SI and convert to English. Lots of American engineers do.
I thought gisstemp was the only respectable temp record worthy of analysing here (that was last year of course). The fact that its not even mentioned here (as a posting) anymore speaks volumes… well here another real eyesore for the warmistas
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/21/2009-arctic-sea-ice-extent-exceeds-2005-for-this-date/#comment-191732
vg– I mention GISS Temp all the time. It’s just more fun to bet on UAH because Roy always gets those out first. I’ll be opening bets on other things, but I want to find all the “bugs”. (For example, it appears a European wants to enter numbers as 0,942 instead of 0.942. Now that I know that, I guess I can ‘fix’ the ‘bug’ that assumed people would enter number the American way!)
vg,
Um, GISS is mentioned all the time. I use it; I use Hadley; I use RSS; I use UAH. I think the volumes that you hear are echoes inside your own head. ๐
Lucia,
Of course farenheit is nonsensical. It asks me to believe that it is 30 degrees when I am freezing my tootsies off. It is a plot by warmistas, I tells ya. ๐
Last I was most impressed with the SST re-analysis by Dr. Roy Spencer, confirming that nothing was botched or otherwise (yet the continued questioning in the usual meme). Does not really matter. Putting the doctors weight behind this, considering it’s LT, consulting my abaco and coming up with a 0.589C month anomaly out of University Alabama, Huntsville superior algorithm. Since the atmospheric memory for temperature is short, and past history of high flux, a possibly oversensitivity to El Nino effects, think a 0.35C uptick is within bounds.
Maximum scommessa, 5 Quatloos
I’ve got many many coins and notes of many countries from my travels but these are the ones I must have. (just wonder how to put the bet without owning any of this currency… does Lucia take IOU’s?)
I’m very curious to see the breakdown of this month’s anomalies. Temperatures in the oceans haven’t been exploding like the UAH reading nor has this El Nino been very strong to date. Seems like a pretty sizable jump in one month to attribute solely to land warming or delayed El Nino reaction.
It definitely is odd – I hope it’s a warm drift issue. Otherwise something seems a bit screwy.
We did have a jump earlier this year of .4c though, right? June was .003 and July was .41. So I guess it’s in the realm of possibility we could see a .6 or so.
I had a thought. Tropical storms are mechanism to remove heat from the atmosphere. That being the case I wonder if the uptick in atmospheric temps is due to the dearth of tropical systems that is happening right now:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg
The Dirt drives the Dearth, but no word on that at WUWTBOM, where I may have seen that chart too.
(with dirt is meant for instance the updraft of Sahara dust into the Atlantic – Equatorial troposphere, working to moderate the power of hurricanes in development.)
edit: Bill Gates may even have read this too and based his fanfare on this, but never looked at what and how he wanted to limit hurricanes beyond seeing the headline in passing.
Serekob,
That may explain the Atlantic basin hurricane season but does not explain the East and West Pacific or Indian Ocean dearths of activity.
Frod, I wrote ‘Dirt’! What other forms are touring the planet atmosphere, in part having anthropogenic originins, directly or indirectly? Anyone ever associated substantial outbirst of volcanos in low latitudes with hurricane events and strengths?
While it ‘may explain’ as you phrase it, there are actually papers out making the clear relation. Seek and though shalleth find.
David Gould,
“It asks me to believe that it is 30 degrees when I am freezing my tootsies off.”
You must really hate Kelvin:
0C = 32F = 273K
I have a cousin who grew up in Puerto Rico and later moved to Belgium. She told me she only really understood “hot” temperatures in farenheit and “cold” temperature is celsius. (Intellectually, she understood both. But, if someone reported 80-90-100 F, she knew how hot it was right away. But if someone said it was 35C out, she really had to think a while.)
In response to JK’s comments that the upwards jump is a bit odd.
I’ve had a look at past El Nino’s, and the tempreature usually jumps up by 0.2-0.5 around January or so, so the unusual thing about the current upwards climb is that it is rather early, so either an unusual El Nino influence, or the climb is caused by something else. As an example the 1997 El Nino did not get above 0.2 degrees (Uah) until Dec, and then jumped up to over 0.7 in Feb.
According to GISS, the Global SST in Sep 97 was 0.43 and in Feb 98, 0.48 – so not much difference. In contrast land went from 0.33 to 0.98.
Lucia: Is there a place for the day of the month on which the prediction was made (in parentheses)?
Until the quatloo’s exchange rate increases, its just bragging rights…which are relative.
Francis— The database logs the date you enter your bet using a “now()” type command. I could display the dates. . . But mostly I just use the date for a tie breaker.
Yes. Quatloos are for bragging rights.
“lucia (Comment#20442) September 21st, 2009 at 9:08 pm
(For example, it appears a European wants to enter numbers as 0,942 instead of 0.942. Now that I know that, I guess I can รขโฌหfixรขโฌโข the รขโฌหbugรขโฌโข that assumed people would enter number the American way!)”
It’s not just the American way, it’s the British way too!
We have a right mixture in the UK now; food / drink in shops is sold in kg / ml, petrol is sold in litres, height and weight (of people) is generally still done in ft / stones (but that’s changing wiv da yoof) and road signs are still in miles.
Thank all suitable deities that I can still order a pint in my local (and then several more after that, just to check they haven’t gone metric since the first one you understand).
Cheers,
Mark
David Gould: I tried your suggestion to get Celcius but the graph is still in F as is the comment in the graph. Maybe its my browser? Do you get Celcius?
TIA Jack
You want hot, I’ll give you hot. Take a look at ChLT, the Lower Troposphere UAH channel .
Global frying occuring.
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9631/globalfrying.jpg
I assume it will be corrected soon!!