Betting

UAH November Temperature Anomaly +0.496C

15 Comments

Roy Spencer reports the November UAH temperature anomaly: +0.496C. That’s hot!

I managed to come in forth closest– which put me just out of the money. Dang! Congrats to Adam for coming in closest. Here’s how everyone did:

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Remember that it’s not too late to bet on HadCrut

15 thoughts on “UAH November Temperature Anomaly +0.496C”

  2. Check out a Popular Mechanics Article from April 1950 that I found titled “Grandma’s right about the weather”. It described a “warm-up cycle” that began in 1920 and peaked in 1940 but that there was a general warming trend since 1912.

    Link at: http://books.google.com/books?id=6NkDAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=popular+mechanics+1950+US+temperature&source=bl&ots=4iQAfv6cNV&sig=oogZzxMSnRX0K7jctLtUWlwub1E&hl=en&ei=GcoWS8ymDZGKNL3i1KcG&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CA4Q6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=&f=false

    Notable Quotes include (my comments are bolded and in italics):
    “All over the world glaciers are receding. Professor Kimble points out that some are melting so fast that they will disappear in a few more decades under present conditions”. (I guess that means they should all be gone by now since it’s been six decades)

    The article goes on
    “What does this all mean?… According to Dr. Clarence A Mills of the University of Cincinnati, the period of rising temperatures may result in smaller adults in the US, reversing a trend that has continued for centuries. There may also be a retardation of mental keenness and the rate of development.” (We can definitely say that those predictions have come true. In the 21st Century people will believe anything a scientist tells them)

    “However, there is a note of caution in Professor Kimble’s book. Some portion of these changes may be due to man-made conditions. To some extent, higher temperatures in towns and cities may result from the loss of heat by buildings. Heat engineers estimate that in a city the size of Montreal, the amount of man-made heat escaping into the lower atmosphere on a day when there is a good inversion could raise temperatures three or four degrees.” (Amazing that 60 years ago people understood the UHI effect better than we do today)

    “The Canadian Geographer hastens to add that our weather records go back only a short distance into history-actually only seconds on the clock of the earth’s life span”

    “The severe winter of 1948-1949 which will probably be remembered in some parts of the US as the year of the Great Blizzard, provides some evidence of an impending temperature recession. However, one year’s evidence is not enough to support a prediction of a reversal in the generation-old trend toward warmer weather”

    Thanks
    Ed

  3. Hey Lucia, maybe would be cool to run advance bets on the top ten rank order position for the year 2010? That El Nino’s maturing, so I’d bet on it being number 1 😉

    (Mind you, I’m not sure how to get a bankroll of quatloos – I missed out on all this!).

  4. Simon–
    Everyone started with zero quatloos. So starting with zero isn’t a problem. I need to modify the script to show everyone’s total ‘winnings’. I’m in the hole big time!

    A bet on the top ten rank for 2010 would be good. Then in 2011, we can do top ten rank in the past 10 years and so on. That should end up fairly unpredictable.

  5. I am surprised by the SH jump. The NH came out as I expected … high but not as high as September. The Southern Hemisphere increase is the surprise for me.

  6. My model is working well. 🙂

    At present, the slope is .267 per 1 degree increase in the 3-month ENSO 3.4 average (with a 5-month lag). R^2 value is .75, including the recent values. Of course, this still leaves a very large margin for error.

  7. (Of course, when I say that it is ‘working well’, I mean that one time out of four I have come close. ;))

  9. “edward (Comment#25725) December 2nd, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    Check out a Popular Mechanics Article from April 1950 that I found titled “Grandma’s right about the weather”. It described a “warm-up cycle” that began in 1920 and peaked in 1940 but that there was a general warming trend since 1912. ”

    And here is an update from Popular Mechanics, based on the current state of the science.

    http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4338343.html?page=1

  10. November does not surprise me. Here in New England summer was chilly, September and October damn chilly and and November a pleasant surprise. I only wish we had a cimate dqta gathering newtwork that could put this in perspective. 70+ billion dollars from the U.S. alone to analyze global warming/climate change and they can’t spend a few paltry million to get the thermometers right.

    Sheesh. They can announce any g!@#$%*&^!!!!!” result they like. How does it relate to reality?

  11. It’s nice to see that at least some people can still have a bit of fun! As my Guru use to say, “never be serious, for that is the way of the dead. Sincerety is the key.”

    :)~

  12. Can we call this the “ClimateGate Effect”? You know, like the “Gore Effect”, but the other way around 😉

    –t

  13. Tim G

    Well as a UK resident, I’m not looking forward to Copenhagen – surely with the perceived importance and number of delegates, the Gore effect will be in extreme setting, and most of Europe under blizzards.

    At least it will make a change from our recent weather – this guy Noah keeps knocking on my door asking if I’ve any more wood or nails…

  15. RSS November anomaly is +0.33. There seems quite a big difference this month between UAH and RSS.

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