Time to place your bets on the UAH temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere. You are betting on the value that Roy Spencer will post here early in February. As you know, to “help”, I show daily anomaly data from the drifty Channel 5 satellite. 
The average for January so far can be described qualitatively as “Wow! That’s high!”
Will it stay this high? Who knows? El Nino has been in position, so we should expect warm global temperatures. On the other hand, it’s been freakin’ cold here in Chicago, and, from what I understand, Florida. Who ever is experiencing that anomalous warmth, please send it here!
Whether or not you let your local weather influence your prediction for January UAH TLT temperature anomalies, remember to bet before the deadl, which is is set to Jan. 26. I think that means mid-night the 25th wherever the server is (probably California.) Remember: Bet now. If you change your mind, bet again. The script will overwrite your initial bet.
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/UAHBets2.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=1?cutOffDay=26?cutOffYear=2010?DateMetric=January, 2010? )sockulator]
(Europeans, remember, the script wants to see dots not comma. So enter something like 0.5 not something like 0,5.)
PS: Let me know if you notice any problems with the feed. The problem was related to this script.
Lucia, being a first time playah, how many quatloos do I get to start with?
Hi, Lucia. I suspect that the anomalous “warmth” is in the Western Pacific troposphere, amidst the thunderstorm towers and in their outflow. I suspect it’s El Nino plus MJO.
Related to this, a neat website to occasionally check is http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/index.htm
Leo G– You just bet 0 to 5 quatloos. Most of us are in the hole. (I need to write the script to reveal how far in the hole must of us are.)
David– Yep The anomalous warmth is somewhere. Just not here! BRrrrr!!!!
I don’t get it. What does the orange line represent?
Smaller quibble, shouldn’t the end of the 2009 curve be continuous with the beginning of the 2010 curve? It looks like your method creates discontinuity artifacts at Jan 1. However, the impact is modest, so that’s just a quibble.
And of course, I can’t resist… show us the code! (Seriously, whatever else I think of climate change issues, I am an ally on the question of open data and open code.) So, where is the code and the data available?
I think as a matter of course and barring extraordinary circumstances, no scientific graph analyzing publicly funded data should be published without a complete recipe for its creation including access to the underlying data.
Michael–
The Orange is the maximum during the 20 year baseline period, not the maximum overall. It’s confusing, but that’s what the channel 5 page provides. The data are available here. The recipe for the creation is:
1) Anomalies for each year are obtained by subtracting the value the AMSU page calls the average for the period from the value for that year.
2) The sd and average since the baseline are computed by averaging over past years. (I may need to check and tweak to make sure I added in 2009.)
You will be surprised to learn I am not in the post each and every code under any and all circumstances. In particular, I am not going to go to the trouble to post a code that averages number every time I announce a fun and pointless bet that makes no particular claims about what the data mean. I’ve discussed the method long ago at the blog, it’s for fun and if you want more details, I’ll be happy to give them to you. But no, I’m not going to bother to upload and store things every time or write an appendix to every post announcing the opportunity for people to place their bets. I think that’s stupid.
For what it’s worth, I am on record with my position and have explained to many here that I don’t think one needs to post every single freakin’ code ever written.
But, if you want to do so, feel free to work on getting people who publish peer reviewed papers to free their code. More importantly, to get people who publish important highly visible data products to be willing to hand over their codes — developed as part of their publically funded activities– when requested.
Lucia-Florida counties have the highest temperature correlation with the Arctic Oscillation in the US-Strange I know, but I suspect that High Latitude blocking is primarily responsible. Negative AO and all.
Also, there are positive correlations across the entire eastern half of the US, nearly out to the Mountain Time Zone.
But aren’t we due for the problematic MSU-AMSU annual cycle change?
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.18Jul2009
the SH is not that warm over that period. the AMSU daily data is unadjusted and i believe that satellite is no longer used for the monthly anomaly data.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/01/how-the-uah-global-temperatures-are-produced/
“AMSU channel 5 is used for our middle tropospheric temperature (MT) estimate; we use a weighted difference between the various view angles of channel 5 to probe lower in the atmosphere, which a fairly sharp weighting function which is for our lower-tropospheric (LT) temperature estimate. We use AMSU channel 9 for monitoring of lower stratospheric (LS) temperatures.
For those channels whose weighting functions intersect the surface, a portion of the total measured microwave thermal emission signal comes from the surface. AMSU channels 1, 2, and 15 are considered “window†channels because the atmosphere is essentially clear, so virtually all of the measured microwave radiation comes from the surface. While this sounds like a good way to measure surface temperature, it turns out that the microwave ‘emissivity’ of the surface (it’s ability to emit microwave energy) is so variable that it is difficult to accurately measure surface temperatures using such measurements. The variable emissivity problem is the smallest for well-vegetated surfaces, and largest for snow-covered surfaces.”
mobihci (Comment#30536)–
You are correct. This satellite is not used to compute UAH. It used to be. One of the difficulties is this instrument drifts.
I show it when I announce the bets but people need to take the data with a big block of salt. Still… it’s information to consider when trying to guess the value that will be reported. If the UAH temperature anomaly rose dramatically since it could be real. It could also be the satellite drifting somewhat.
Europe (and I am talking here from Urals to Portugal) has also experienced record low temperatures for half of january .
Getting partially to “normals” only now and not everywhere .
And differences we are talking here about were huge – more than 10°C below the normal , sustainably over 2 weeks more or less .
Also it didn’t stop at Urals but extended to Siberia and China .
.
So having large parts of the northern hemisphere so deeply below normals , to get the global average above 0 , it is necessary that large parts of the southern hemisphere be sustainably 10°C and more above normals over most of january .
The one place I was in january is Argentina and it is not there where we’ll find these extremely hot 10°C anomalies – on the contrary .
So it must be elsewhere .
@ Tom Vonk,
I would think it is reasonable when you look at this:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.1.18.2010.gif
I would expect the “El Ninjo band” along equator in the Pacific, the fairly large hot pool around -40 S, ditto between -20 (S) and +20 (N) in the Atlantic will have substantial influence on the overlying atmosphere. While not 10 deg above mean, I think the combined hot areas are larger.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust