Betting

UAH: Snaps down in Oct.

26 Comments

The UAH temperature took a sharp downturn in October– but the trend since January 2001 remains positive (0.064 C/dec): Trends along with uncertainty intervals estimated using a) the much reviled AR(1)+trend, b) the stationary ARIMA(p,0,q) with (p+q)<4 that gave the largest uncertainty intervals and c)the ARFIMA(1,0>d,q) model obtained by using fracdiff to find the ‘best’ d:

Drops like this can be hard to anticipate. So, I know you are all wondering who won the quatloos? Well, this week, four bettors were ‘in the money’. The first place winner was
Robert Leyland who nailed the UAH October anomaly by guessing 0.114 C. Robert edged out Bob Koss, who placed his money on 0.113. Meanwhile, BenjaminG just edged out Troy CA; these gentlemen bet on 0.101C and 0.100 C respectively.

By the way: These were the 2nd-5th lowest values guessed. Good show!

The details showing how much each person bet are shown below.

Winnings in Quatloos for UAH TTL October, 2011 Predictions.
Rank Name Prediction (C) Bet Won
Gross Net
— Observed 0.114 (C)
1 Robert Leyland 0.114 4 66.93 62.93
2 Bob Koss 0.113 5 66.93 61.93
3 BenjaminG 0.101 5 53.544 48.544
4 Troy_CA 0.1 4 13.471 9.471
5 MikeP 0.129 5 0 -5
6 Joel Heinrich 0.137 5 0 -5
7 Fred N. 0.141 3 0 -3
8 Richard 0.087 5 0 -5
9 George Tobin 0.15 4 0 -4
10 Anteros 0.177 5 0 -5
11 torn8o 0.178 5 0 -5
12 KÃ¥re Kristiansen 0.18 4 0 -4
13 Ray 0.18 5 0 -5
14 pdjakow 0.19 5 0 -5
15 MarcH 0.192 5 0 -5
16 Don B 0.195 4 0 -4
17 Cassanders 0.197 5 0 -5
18 Chris Brown 0.203 5 0 -5
19 BigBear 0.024 4 0 -4
20 denny 0.207 3 0 -3
21 RobB 0.208 5 0 -5
22 plazaeme 0.21 1 0 -1
23 anton 0.21 3 0 -3
24 ob 0.211 1 0 -1
25 Steve T 0.22 3.88 0 -3.875
26 sHx 0.22 5 0 -5
27 Freezedried 0.221 2 0 -2
28 Jon P 0.221 5 0 -5
29 LC 0.226 5 0 -5
30 Nyq Only 0.24 3 0 -3
31 Paul Butler 0.242 4 0 -4
32 Pieter 0.243 4 0 -4
33 Eds 0.244 5 0 -5
34 Tamara 0.255 5 0 -5
35 Arfur Bryant 0.26 5 0 -5
36 TimTheToolMan 0.26 5 0 -5
37 Eddieo 0.267 5 0 -5
38 ivp0 0.272 5 0 -5
39 bob droege 0.285 5 0 -5
40 Tim W. 0.291 5 0 -5
41 AndrewKennett 0.299 4 0 -4
42 enSKog 0.299 3 0 -3
43 John F. Pittman 0.301 5 0 -5
44 Lance 0.301 4 0 -4
45 Roy Weiler -0.135 5 0 -5
46 AMac 0.402 3 0 -3
47 Golfgeek 1.9 5 0 -5

The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.

Good going everyone– except maybe GolfGeek, who may have misplaced his decimal point. I’ll post the November betting form tomorrow!

26 thoughts on “UAH: Snaps down in Oct.”

  1. Congratz, winners!

    the trend since January 2001 remains positive (0.064 C/century)

    Should be 0.064 C/decade, I guess.

  4. Oh man, quite a drop-off between 3rd and 4th place prize money…just enough to encourage me to continue betting and losing quatloos.

  5. Troy–
    The drop off is because the pot ran out of money. The patented algorithm computes an amount based an a super-secret methodology, and pulls the lesser of that amount or whatever is left in the pot as winnings. I don’t know what you would have won if there had been more money left– but the last person in the money almost never wins very much.

  6. Lucia

    Did you look at UAH 400mb (25,000ft) & 250mb (36,000ft) measurements?, both are at the lowest absolute temperatures at least since 2001 and both have reached that level weeks (in the case of 400mb – 4 weeks!!!) before typical prior low points.

    What has happened to cause the troposphere to cool faster, earlier than in the past decade? I doubt its La Nina related, UAH normally tracks La Nina events downwards with several months delay. All other things being equal will not UAH fall substantially further during the next several months? How low it will go would make an interesting bet!

  7. Lucia wrote —

    > The patented algorithm computes an amount based an a super-secret methodology

    That conflation made me (and all the other patent geeks out there) smile! Unfortunately, however, you are still hereby placed on double secret probation (0:55 here).

    And, no, I’m not angry at joining Golfgeek at the bottom of the betting heap. That has nothing to do with it. I don’t know why you bring it up.

  8. AMac–
    Yep. “patented” ≠ “super-secret”. Ever. 🙂

    Gras– I haven’t looked at temperatures at different heights.

  9. Overconfidence can be a terrible thing.
    I so believed I had the dosh in the bag, that I used the ‘winnings’ to leverage a hefty loan from some very unsavoury characters.
    Inside info on November’s anomaly will be handsomely rewarded – I’m desperate! 🙂

  10. @Robert Leyland –
    Hows about we pool our resources – a sort of syndicate to spread the risk??

  11. I would like to start betting, but as a trader I always hedge my bets. What instrument can I use to hedge with?

    It would be nice if we had an over or under number to bet against. We need an odds maker.

  12. Whew! Lucky, that dartboard and balloon method seems so reliable.

    Actually I bet on the same value last month too.

    @Anteros – I think my overall winnings are still negative 🙂

    cheers,
    Robert

  13. Where have my interim bets gone? I’m sure the last but one would have won. My mistake was to to go too cold too fast. I am now feeling a little cold and out of pocket. 🙁

  14. Woot! My first won quatloos. [rubbing hands in glee]. My guesstimate came from comparing to Oct. 2008 and taking a smidgeon off for now being in the full effect of the recent solar minimum, according to NASA’s 2-year lag.

  15. Woo hoo! I’m rolling in dough. 🙂

    I understand the exchange rate between quatloos and Zimbabwe dollars is almost one for one.

  17. It’s what the third parameter in ARIMA is measured in (p,d,q) – pesos, denarii and quatloos.

  18. Robert, congratulations on getting the precisely correct result.
    I think it is unfair of Lucia to assume that you “guessed” the figure.

    November will be interesting. Roy Spencer is predicting another “substantial” drop but I am doubtful.

  19. Last November we had lots of headlines about 2010 being the warmest year on record… Eventually tied, 1st or second depending who you believe.. second decimal place of course… Even Hsnsen said this was getting silly (paraphrase)

    As it is very quiet on the 2011, … is going to be…. front…

    Where does 2011 fit at the moment! ?

    On target for… 2,3,4,5,6th etc?

    Doesn’t mean anything. Just curious…

    Though Phil Jones announced ( on BBC website) on 2010 data, that warming was now significant!! Would be amusing if by Phil’s unannounced method, that 2011 would make the trend not significant again… Poor use of statitics? To try and deflect from earlier BBC interview.

  20. I detect a warmist bias here. At 0.087 I am as much below the Observed temp as Fred N. is above, yet I am placed 8th to Fred N.’s 7th.

  23. Barry Woods (Comment #85173)
    November 4th, 2011 at 5:37 pm

    Though Phil Jones announced ( on BBC website) on 2010 data, that warming was now significant!! Would be amusing if by Phil’s unannounced method, that 2011 would make the trend not significant again…

    Was anyone able to determine what technique Perfessor Jones used to make his “significant” claim. I recall a lot of discussion about it, but don’t remember if anyone actually pulled it out of him.

  24. JohnM–
    The reporter didn’t ask, so we needed to guess.

    Richard

    I detect a warmist bias here. At 0.087 I am as much below the Observed temp as Fred N. is above, yet I am placed 8th to Fred N.’s 7th.

    I think it makes sense that the pack will guess high in months when temperature drop a lot relative to the previous month, and they will guess low in months when temperatures rise a lot relative to the previous month.

    This month temperatures dropped quite a bit relative to September.

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